Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions Volume 34, 1st Quarter, 2005

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Volume 34, 1st Quarter, 25 The Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions has a new look, with several new statistical additions. Some are highlighted in the commentary below, some are left for you to browse in the form of new, more user-friendly charts and tables. Please note that the numbers at the end of the figures and tables correspond to sources of data, which are listed on page 1 along with notes about major data changes. Experts continue to watch housing closely for signs of bubble deflation as the national economy improves and interest rates rise. Locally, the consensus seems to be that an adjustment is taking place, but growth will continue to generate enough demand to forestall a major ubiquitous price decline in Clark County. Evidence of adjustment back to a more typical pricegrowth trajectory can already be seen in the firstquarter 25 statistics, although they are still nowhere near the 12, plus taken out at the height of the boom. Residential permits have risen to nearly 8, after dipping below 5,7 at the end of 24. Apartment vacancies are down slightly (page 4) indicating people are shifting back toward rentals to take advantage of relatively good deals in the apartment complexes that have not been converted to condos. (Our estimate is that 45 apartment complexes have been converted since 4 th -quarter 24). Finally, according to MLS statistics, the number of Las Vegas listings available has increased (page 9) at the same time that price growth is converging back toward something more typical of other urban counties in the West (see page 8). Market Adjustment below. These statistics are generated from Clark County single-family, home-sales records (compiled by Realquest) and show the percentage of recordings for which the mailing address was given as California in the first quarter of 25. These are then further broken down into major urban area within California. Although certainly not perfect, or arguably even very good, these numbers may put a lower bound on California investment activity in Las Vegas. In other words, it is probably the case that at least 9 percent of the market was investment activity last quarter, nearly half of which was generated in the Los Angeles area. This is high when compared to the same statistic for 1 st -quarter 2 (2.6 percent). Bengte Evenson, Ph.D. Location of Investors in the Las Vegas Housing Market by State and CA Urban Area 1 1 st Quarter, 25 Los Angeles Area 4% Quarter in Depth A major concern is that the Las Vegas housing market has been pushed into a bubble by investors, especially investors from California for whom Las Vegas prices are still relatively cheap (see page 8). NV 87% CA 9% Other 3% San Francisco Area 3% San Diego Area 1% Orange Co. Area 1% Other 1% While no data exist to directly investigate the validity of this concern, quick and dirty statistics are shown Note: These numbers may shed light on investment activity originating outside the area, but should not be viewed as either definitive or necessarily meaningful.

2 Housing Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 2 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1st Quarter, 24 Total: 1,312 2nd Quarter, 24 Total: 12,498 3rd Quarter, 24 Total: 8,923 4th Quarter, 24 Total: 5,955 1st Quarter, 25 Total: 8,359 Commercial Units Multi-Family Units 1,746 2,5 1, ,612 Single-Family Units 8,251 1,165 7,51 5,111 6,386 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1st Quarter, 24 Total: 9,997 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 2 2nd Quarter, 24 Total: 12,215 3rd Quarter, 24 Total: 8,582 4th Quarter, 24 Total: 5,64 1st Quarter, 25 Total: 7,998 Uninc. Clark County 4,374 4,64 4,533 3,13 4,2 City of Las Vegas 2,218 3, City of North Las Vegas 2,22 2,112 1,816 1,17 1,41 Henderson 1,359 1,572 1, ,412 Boulder City Page 2

3 Local Growth 9, Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Quarterly 2,433 21,351 23,162 19,377 21,393 Year-to-Date 2,433 41,784 64,946 84,323 21,393 4% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 Unemployment Las Vegas Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % U.S. Q % Q % Q % Q % Q % 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Percent from Outside the 5 States* 1.1%.4%.4%.3%.3% Percent from California 34.6% 35.5% 35.% 34.% 36.4% Percent Senior: Age 6 or Older 11.3% 12.1% 9.6% 9.2% 9.9% Page 3

4 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy 895 * * * * * * * * * * * * 8912 * * * 815 * * * 114 * % 8914 * * * 729 * 835 * 882 * % 8915 * * * 695 * 72 * 835 * % 893 * * * 553 * 563 * 671 * % 8931 * * * * * * * 812 * % 8932 * * * 72 * * * 861 * % 8952 * * * 785 * 85 * 954 * % 8974 * * * 776 * * * 912 * % * 652 * 76 * % 8912 * 547 * 615 * 656 * 752 * % 8913 * 586 * 661 * 723 * 791 * % * 657 * 691 * % 8916 * 459 * 554 * 629 * 734 * % 8917 * 571 * 645 * 664 * 761 * * % 8918 * 576 * 668 * 685 * 88 * % * 777 * % 8911 * * * 612 * 663 * 724 * % * * * 8 * * * 939 * % * 576 * 67 * 623 * 719 * % * * * 777 * 877 * 95 * % * * * 738 * * * 893 * % * 667 * 81 * % 8912 * * * 715 * 723 * 858 * % * 53 * 653 * 71 * 788 * % * * * 614 * 686 * 727 * % * * * 762 * * * 914 * % * * * 742 * * * 884 * % * * * 74 * * * 89 * % 8913 * * * 683 * * * 89 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 86 * * * 166 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 7 * * * 88 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 857 * % * * * 684 * 68 * 819 * % * * * 793 * * * 937 * % * * * 829 * * * 96 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 715 * * * 822 * * % METRO LV * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Page 4

5 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area RENT Data Suppressed , VACANCY Data Suppressed.1% - 5.1% 5.2% - 5.6% 5.7% - 6.4% 6.5% - 7.8% Page 5

6 Single-Family Housing Market Details 6, Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 1 5, 4,94 4,977 4,579 4,488 4,616 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,333 2,288 2,188 2,161 2,147 1,792 1,758 1,712 1,683 1,674 1,441 1,423 1,48 1,384 1, st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses are evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. Distribution of Sales Price 1 1,, 894,27 95, 929,76 975, 1,7,137 8, 6, 4, 2, 345, 357,776 36, 36, 3, 276, , 282, 257, 227, 217, , 226, 196,5 176,99 95, 96,75 15, 14,15 14,8 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Page 6

7 Single-Family Housing Market Details 35 Distribution of Price per Square Foot st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses are evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. 9, Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 1 8, 799,378 7, 685, , , ,2 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 25, , ,85 287,85 213, , 35, 312, ,1 233,8 239,35 243, 173,45 176,8 18, 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Page 7

8 Housing Market Comparisons 7, Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 3 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Clark County, NV 27,46 243, 258, , , Maricopa County, AZ 164, ,789 18, 189, 195, Salt Lake County, UT 179,55 186,2 197,78 22,16 27,214 Los Angeles County, CA 37, 415, 425, 43, 445, Orange County, CA 548, 61, 6, 599, 62, 2% Quarterly Increase in Median Sale Price 3 15% 1% 5% % -5% 1st Quarter, 24 2nd Quarter, 24 3rd Quarter, 24 4th Quarter, 24 1st Quarter, 25 Clark County, NV 11% 17% 6% 7% 4% Maricopa County, AZ 1% 5% 4% 5% 3% Salt Lake County, UT 2% 4% 6% 2% 2% Los Angeles County, CA 6% 12% 2% 1% 3% Orange County, CA 8% 11% -2% % 4% Page 8

9 Single-Family Housing Market Details Single-Family Residential Units 3 14,5 36, 14,45 14,4 355, 14,35 14,3 35, 14,25 14,2 345, 14,15 14,1 34, 14,5 14, February 25 March 25 Available units (left axis) 14,38 14,277 Median list price (right axis) 343,81 $349, , Time on Market for Units Sold: February days 12% Time on Market for Units Sold: March days 13% days 13% -3 days 38% days 11% -3 days 42% 61-9 days 16% 61-9 days 14% 31-6 days 21% 31-6 days 2% Page 9

10 Single-Family Housing Market Details Number Number of Sales of Sales 1st Quarter, st Quarter, Sources: 1 CBER calculations using RealQuest data 2 CBER 3 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors Note: Statistics in the Single-Family Housing Market Details section have changed to reflect the fact that only singlefamily housing is analyzed. Previously, single- and multi-family housing was used to create medians and other statistics. Copyright Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name, date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, 455 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (72) Fax: (72) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Page 1