Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Not So Much of a Recovery Volume 53, 4th Sales of existing US homes registered another drop in December. The 17 percent decline represents the largest since And with incomes dropping and credit still contracting, this trend in the housing market is likely to continue in the near future. The so-called recovery of the housing market has yet to materialize. Indeed, even though existing home sales rose by 5.9 percent in, the median sale price dropped 12 percent from. What this unusual combination of events suggests is that most of the sales are occurring at the lower end of the market where the $8,000 federal tax credit is likely to provide the most relative gain. The situation is no less dramatic in Nevada, where roughly two out of every three home mortgages have negative equity. With the state unemployment numbers already at historically high levels and not likely to improve in the near term, there is a real possibility that these underwater mortgages will turn into massive foreclosures. The Nevada foreclosure rate, which is currently at 10 percent, is already the highest in the nation. The Southern Nevada housing-market conditions did not improve much in the fourth quarter of. Our estimate of the excess supply of housing units is at 12,080 down 2 percent from the previous quarter. See table below. The small decrease in excess supply was a combination of a lower excess supply of single-family units and a higher excess supply in apartment units. This suggests that households are moving away from traditional apartment units to take advantage of cheaper rental rates on vacant singlefamily homes. Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: January 2010 Type of Housing Unit 1 Vacant Units Estimated Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area Single-family detached 10, , ,035 3,959 Condominium 1,958 82, ,873 (915) Townhouse , Multifamily 3 19, , ,667 8,886 Total 33, , ,347 12,080 1 Excludes mobile homes 2 Estimated excess supply = vacant units less estimated normal vacancy inventory 3 Includes apartments and multiplex units Assumed Percent Normal Vacancy Rate (%) Estimated Normal Vacant Inventory Estimated Excess Supply 2 Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Mary Riddel, Ph.D.

2 Housing-Market Overview Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions Cont d The data show that housing prices continued to fall in the fourth quarter of. The median Las Vegas housing price of a single-family home was $141,000 in the fourth quarter. This corresponds to a 12 percent decrease from the third quarter of and a 28 percent decrease from the same quarter a year ago. The Las Vegas area S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index hit another record low in November of, continuing a trend of 39 consecutive months of decline. Housing prices have now declined 55.6 percent from the peak. More evidence of a struggling Southern Nevada housing market is found in permitting activity. Permitting activity dropped measurably during the fourth quarter. A total of 1,220 housing permits were issued by Clark County. This compares with 1,803 for the fourth quarter of, a decrease of 32 percent from the same quarter a year ago. The apartment rental and vacancy rates have been affected by higher-than-normal vacancy rates of single-family units. Vacant single-family units end up on the rental housing market, thereby placing a downward pressure on apartment rental rates. The average apartment rental rate was $787 in the fourth quarter, a 7 percent decrease from the third quarter. Meanwhile, the average apartment vacancy rate inched forward to 11 percent, up 2.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Constant Tra, PhD Mary Riddel, PhD Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 2

3 Housing-Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, th Total: 1,803 1st Total: 1,197 2nd Total: 1,822 3rd Total: 1,753 4th Total: 1,220 Commercial Units Multifamily Units Single-Family Units , ,200 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 1, th Total: 1,676 1st Total: 1,124 2nd Total: 1,755 3rd Total: 1,686 4th Total: 1,164 Uninc. Clark County 1, , City of Las Vegas City of North Las Vegas Henderson Boulder City Mesquite Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 3

4 Local Growth 80,000 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarterly 17,114 16,397 16,101 17,461 14,715 13,889 13,458 14,654 13,047 Year-to-Date 74,677 16,397 32,498 49,959 64,674 13,889 27,347 42,001 55,048 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q4 8.1% Q1 10.2% Q2 11.3% Q3 13.5% Q4 12.7% U.S. Q4 6.9% Q1 8.1% Q2 9.3% Q3 9.6% Q4 10.1% Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4th st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Percent from Outside the 50 States and DC 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Percent from California 31.6% 31.8% 31.4% 31.1% 32.0% 32.8% 31.8% 31.5% 31.2% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 12.2% 10.5% 12.6% 11.4% 12.8% 10.9% 11.5% 11.2% 14.4% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 4

5 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 908 * * % * * * 780 * * * 951 * % * * * 695 * 837 * 846 * % * * * 634 * 725 * 779 * % * * * 602 * 604 * 716 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 663 * * * 785 * % * * * 838 * 962 * 983 * % * * * 787 * * * 926 * % * * * 758 * * * 941 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 715 * * * 901 * % * 633 * 684 * % * 565 * 600 * 648 * 749 * % * 557 * 642 * 688 * 771 * % * 430 * 546 * 651 * 684 * % * * * 595 * 634 * 801 * % * 488 * 591 * 637 * 666 * % * 554 * 635 * 695 * 789 * % * 485 * 582 * 638 * 733 * % * * * 615 * 655 * 728 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * 532 * 556 * 600 * 696 * % * * * 759 * * * 917 * % * * * 739 * 737 * 910 * % * 663 * 828 * % * * * 641 * * * 794 * * % * 518 * 599 * 650 * 716 * % * * * 574 * 557 * 697 * % * * * 818 * * * 996 * % * * * 672 * * * 749 * % * * * 723 * * * 866 * % * * * * * * * * * * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 898 * * * 1202 * * % * * * 899 * * * 1104 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 639 * * * 709 * % * * * 958 * * * 1163 * % * * * 857 * * * 981 * % * * * 671 * 633 * 817 * % * * * 780 * * * 915 * % * * * 869 * * * 976 * % * * * 850 * * * 1300 * % * * * 661 * * * 802 * % * * * 897 * * * 1158 * % * 634 * 740 * % * * * 813 * * * 933 * % METRO LV * * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 5

6 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area Rent Q4 Data Suppressed Vacancy Q4 Data Suppressed Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 6

7 Single-Family Housing-Market Details 6,000 Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 3 5,000 4,892 4,867 4,958 4,880 4,923 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,449 2,442 2,442 2,408 1,878 1,880 1,891 1,891 2,270 1,788 1,521 1,526 1,557 1,556 1,470 1,000 1,031 1,019 1,032 1, th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $1,600,000 Distribution of Sales Price 3 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $746,200 $725,000 $724,983 $750,640 $600,000 $620,700 $400,000 $200,000 $0 $260,000 $245,000 $226,075 $220,000 $197,666 $197,000 $175,150 $165,000 $160,000 $150,000 $141,000 $133,875 $124,000 $120,500 $71,919 $103,000 $55,000 $54,917 $55,000 $30,000 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 7

8 Single-Family Housing-Market Details $400 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 3 $350 $300 $250 $200 $229 $219 $205 $207 $184 $150 $100 $50 $0 $120 $110 $104 $103 $101 $95 $93 $88 $85 $84 $79 $77 $71 $70 $63 $52 $41 $39 $40 $24 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses is evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $1,200,000 Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 3 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $417,000 $417,000 $417,000 $417,000 $407,000 $200,000 $0 $210,000 $188,522 $186,435 $171,853 $152,192 $153,598 $130,591 $127,645 $118,750 $97,621 $89,900 $34,967 $68,732 $33,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 8

9 Housing-Market Comparisons $600,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 4 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Clark County, NV $200,000 $165,000 $149,530 $145,000 $145,000 Maricopa County, AZ $181,000 $150,000 $143,000 $149,900 $154,000 Salt Lake County, UT $231,096 $230,570 $227,347 $218,869 $215,748 Los Angeles County, CA $350,000 $305,000 $315,000 $332,000 $343,000 Orange County, CA $450,000 $430,000 $471,000 $500,000 $505, % Quarterly Increase in Median Home Price % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Clark County, NV -9.1% -17.5% -9.4% -3.0% 0.0% Maricopa County, AZ -9.5% -17.1% -4.7% 4.8% 2.7% Salt Lake County, UT -1.5% -0.2% -1.4% -3.7% -1.4% Los Angeles County, CA -8.5% -12.9% 3.3% 5.4% 3.3% Orange County, CA -10.0% -4.4% 9.5% 6.2% 1.0% Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 9

10 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number Available and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 5 22,500 $166,000 21,500 $162,000 20,500 $158,000 19,500 $154,000 18,500 $150,000 17,500 April May June July August September October November December $146,000 Available units (left axis) 22,112 21,181 20,613 20,423 20,999 20,801 20,998 20,847 19,707 Median list price (right axis) $164,900 $160,000 $159,000 $158,000 $155,000 $154,000 $150,000 $150,000 $149,900 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 18.7% 18.8% 17.9% 16.3% 15.3% 6.2% 9.9% 7.7% 7.3% 8.0% 11.7% 13.1% 11.3% 16.4% 16.4% 18.4% 18.8% 9.1% 10.4% 13.8% 13.9% 12.6% 10.9% 11.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.3% 6.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4% 8.7% 15.0% 15.5% 16.7% 15.9% 40% 30% 20% 43.7% 43.4% 42.9% 48.9% 55.6% 59.3% 59.0% 58.7% 57.4% 10% 0% April May June July August September October November December 0-30 days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 10

11 Single-Family Housing-Market Details Number of Single-Family Home Sales, 4 th Number of Sales Q Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 11

12 National Housing Market Conditions 7 Latest quarter Previous quarter Same quarter previous year % change from previous quarter % change from last year HOUSING PRODUCTION Permits Starts Under construction Completions Manufactured (mobile) home shipments HOUSING MARKETING New homes sold New homes for sale Month's supply of new homes Existing homes sold Existing homes for sale Month's supply of existing homes Median new home price Average new home price Constant house quality new home price Median existing home price Average existing home price Composite housing affordability index Fixed-rate housing affordability index Apartments completed Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months Median asking rent Manufactured (mobile) home placements Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) Housing market index Current sales activity Future sales expectations Prospective buyer traffic HOUSING FINANCE Conventional fixed-rate 30 year Conventional ARMs Conventional fixed-rate 15 year FHA applications received FHA total endorsements FHA purchase endorsements VA certificates PMI certificates Total past due, all loans Total past due, conventional subprime loans Total past due, conventional subprime ARMs days past due, all loans days past due, conventional subprime loans days past due, conventional subprime ARMs Foreclosures started, all loans Foreclosures started, conventional subprime loans Foreclosures started, conventional subprime ARMs HOUSING INVESTMENT GDP (in billions of dollars) Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) RFI percent of GDP HOUSING INVENTORY All housing units Occupied units Owner occupied Rental vacancy rate Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 12

13 Housing-Market Overview Figure 1 Case-Shiller Housing Price Index: January 1987 to November Housing Price Index Las Vegas, NV U.S. (10-city composite) Base month, January 2000 = Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices < as of 1/27/2010 Sources: 1 Local building permitting agencies. 2 CBER. 3 CBER calculations using First American Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data based on new and existing recorded home sales. 4 Metroscan, First American Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER calculations based on the same data (reported on page 10) because Metroscan uses raw estimates. 5 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7 U.S. Housing Market Conditions 3rd. Note: As of the 1st 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright 2010 Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 53, 4th Page 13