Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions

Transcription

1 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions The Center for Business and Economic Research Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Please note: the numbers at the end of the figure and table titles correspond to sources of data, which are listed on page 10 along with notes about major data changes. Back in Business Quarter Overview: Southern Nevada s housing market has shifted out of adjustment and back into growth. Permitting activity has recovered from its recent slump, posting 11,130 units last quarter (page 3). Both commercial and multi-family (condominium) permits are up approximately 20 percent from the same period last year, and single-family residential activity remains strong. The 10,793 permits issued to accommodate the estimated population growth of just over 21,000 adults (using redeemed drivers licenses, see page 3) seem economically sound. These graphs suggest supply is not outpacing demand, especially since residential permitting activity was weak relative to population growth during the market adjustment of the past six months. In sum, strong demand that is not being outstripped by supply suggests continued house-price growth. And migration demand can be expected to continue while Las Vegas unemployment remains significantly below that of the U.S. (page 3). Concerns about house prices in Las Vegas have been mitigated somewhat in this last quarter according to our data. Clark County prices remain well below those of Southern California, and our median house-price appreciation rate is relatively low again (pages 8 and 9). In addition, the number of available units continues to rise and apartments remain relatively affordable (below). Quarter in Depth: The emergence of a market for high-rise condominiums has attracted significant attention recently. There is some sense that these condominiums will, in large part, be marketed and sold as secondary residences to outside buyers, which leads to the question of how this condo market will interact with the local housing market. Specifically, although there does not seem to be a house-price bubble in Las Vegas, there is concern that the race to fill condominium demand, which has been more robust than expected, will result in a condo-price bubble due to oversupply. This quarter s graph compares the past two years price growth for houses, condos (new and converted), and apartments. Condo-price growth was more sustained, but house prices had faster growth spurts. House-price growth overtook condo-price growth again last quarter, at 6.3 and 5.9 percent, respectively. Thus, we see similar total price growth over the last two years for condos (67.9 percent) and houses (66.5 percent), although both outpaced price growth for apartments (7.2 percent). Bengte Evenson, Ph.D Price Index for Condos, Single-Family Homes and Apartments (Quarter 2, =100) 2,3 100 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Condos Single-Family Homes Apartment Rents

2 Housing Market Overview Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, nd Total: 12,498 3rd Total: 8,923 4th Total: 5,955 1st 2005 Total: 8,359 2nd 2005 Total: 11,131 Commercial Units Multi-Family Units 2,050 1, ,612 2,508 Single-Family Units 10,165 7,051 5,111 6,386 8,285 7,000 Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority 1 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, nd Total: 12,215 3rd Total: 8,582 4th Total: 5,640 1st 2005 Total: 7,998 2nd 2005 Total: 10,793 Uninc. Clark County 4,604 4,533 3,103 4,200 5,859 City of Las Vegas 3, ,381 City of North Las Vegas 2,112 1,816 1,107 1,401 2,172 Henderson 1,572 1, ,412 1,375 Boulder City Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 2

3 Local Growth 100,000 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses 2 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Quarterly 22,152 25,219 22,499 20,433 21,351 23,162 19,377 21,393 21,254 Year-to-Date 42,168 67,387 89,886 20,433 41,784 64,946 84,323 21,393 42,647 Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories 2 Unemployment 6 Las Vegas Q2 4.5% Q3 4.4% Q4 4.0% Q % April % May % U.S. Q2 5.6% Q3 5.4% Q4 5.4% Q % Q % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Percent from Outside the 50 States and DC 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Percent from California 37.6% 34.8% 39.0% 34.6% 35.5% 35.0% 34.0% 36.4% 34.5% Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 11.7% 10.3% 11.7% 11.3% 12.1% 9.6% 9.2% 9.9% 11.9% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 3

4 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area 2 ZIP CODE UNIT RATES Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed AVERAGE RATES Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Furnished Unfurnished Rent Vacancy * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 807 * * * 1005 * % * * * 735 * 840 * 886 * % * * * 688 * 683 * 841 * % * * * 571 * 541 * 693 * % * * * * * * * 859 * % * * * 723 * * * 861 * % * * * 768 * 845 * 921 * % * * * 781 * * * 930 * % * 664 * 726 * % * 561 * 626 * 655 * 762 * % * 594 * 699 * 766 * 833 * % * 672 * 712 * % * 466 * 591 * 647 * 769 * % * 579 * 653 * 668 * 775 * * % * 578 * 677 * 702 * 818 * % * 788 * % * * * 625 * 676 * 736 * % * * * 827 * * * 973 * * % * 574 * 624 * 635 * 749 * % * * * 783 * 872 * 911 * % * * * 752 * 723 * 909 * % * 681 * 819 * % * * * 711 * 735 * 856 * % * 530 * 665 * 710 * 805 * % * * * 600 * 741 * 744 * % * * * 803 * * * 945 * % * * * 749 * * * 897 * % * * * 754 * * * 909 * % * * * 708 * * * 826 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 864 * * * 1060 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 702 * * * 822 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 690 * 705 * 829 * % * * * 813 * * * 948 * % * * * 835 * * * 949 * % * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * METRO LV * % * Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes. Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 4

5 Substitute Market: Apartments Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area RENT Data Suppressed , VACANCY Data Suppressed 0.1% - 5.1% 5.2% - 5.6% 5.7% - 6.4% 6.5% - 7.8% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 5

6 Single-Family Housing Market Details 6,000 Distribution of House Size in Square Feet 3 5,000 4,977 4,579 4,488 4,616 4,547 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2,288 2,188 2,161 2,147 2,118 1,758 1,712 1,683 1,674 1,660 1,423 1,408 1,384 1,370 1, nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses are evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. Distribution of Sales Price 3 $1,089,190 $1,000,000 $950,000 $929,760 $975,000 $1,007,137 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $345,000 $357,776 $360,000 $360,000 $375,000 $200,000 $276,812 $279,000 $282,000 $295,000 $257,000 $240,000 $217,247 $221,000 $226,000 $196,500 $96,075 $105,000 $120,000 $104,015 $104,080 $0 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 6

7 Single-Family Housing Market Details $350 Distribution of Price per Square Foot 3 $300 $275 $288 $288 $296 $305 $250 $200 $150 $100 $174 $147 $120 $71 $188 $190 $193 $162 $166 $169 $147 $142 $135 $77 $75 $74 $200 $179 $158 $87 $50 $0 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Note: The boxplots can be interpreted as Half the houses have a [square footage, price, price per square foot, or mortgage] between [value at bottom of box] and [value at top of box], with the median being [value in middle of box]. The other half of the houses are evenly split between values that are higher and values that are lower. To show this, lines extend out of the box upward and downward, with 98 percent of houses between [value at top of line] and [value at bottom of line]. The extremely high 1 percent and the extremely low 1 percent are not shown in order to avoid the detrimental effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market. $900,000 Distribution of Total Mortgage Value 3 $878,988 $800,000 $799,378 $700,000 $759,843 $729,228 $758,200 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $287,850 $305,000 $312,567 $314,100 $328,470 $200,000 $213,226 $155,000 $233,800 $239,350 $243,000 $173,450 $176,800 $180,000 $255,470 $198,400 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 7

8 Housing Market Comparisons $700,000 Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties 4 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Clark County, NV $243,000 $258,172 $275,221 $286,753 $298,000 Maricopa County, AZ $173,789 $180,000 $189,000 (Not Available) (Not Available) Salt Lake County, UT $186,200 $197,780 $202,160 $206,948 $215,896 Los Angeles County, CA $415,000 $425,000 $430,000 $445,000 $480,000 Orange County, CA $610,000 $600,000 $599,500 $620,000 $665, % Quarterly Increase in Median Sale Price % 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2nd 3rd 4th 1st nd 2005 Clark County, NV 17.1% 6.2% 6.6% 4.2% 3.9% Maricopa County, AZ 5.5% 3.6% 5.0% (Not Available) (Not Available) Salt Lake County, UT 3.7% 6.2% 2.2% 2.4% 4.3% Los Angeles County, CA 12.2% 2.4% 1.2% 3.5% 7.9% Orange County, CA 11.3% -1.6% -0.1% 3.4% 7.3% Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 8

9 Single-Family Housing Market Details Number Available and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units 5 15,400 $365,000 15,200 15,000 $360,000 14,800 $355,000 14,600 14,400 $350,000 14,200 14,000 $345,000 13,800 $340,000 13,600 13,400 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 Available units (left axis) 14,038 14,277 14,830 15,066 15,177 Median list price (right axis) $343,810 $349,999 $355,000 $359,900 $359,999 $335,000 Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 11.5% 12.7% 16.3% 12.7% 10.7% 13.6% 12.0% 7.6% 12.9% 10.2% 6.7% 13.5% 7.2% 7.3% 11.6% 60% 50% 21.2% 20.1% 22.5% 21.2% 22.3% 40% 30% 20% 38.3% 42.9% 45.1% 48.4% 51.6% 10% 0% February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June days days days days 120+ days Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 9

10 Single-Family Housing Market Details Number of Sales 2nd Number of Sales Sources: 1 Local Building Permitting Agencies. 2 CBER. 3 CBER calculations using First American Real Estate Solutions RealQuest data based on recorded home sales. 4 Metroscan, First American Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER calculations based on the same data, because Metroscan uses raw estimates. 5 Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly-constructed homes sold by local builders. 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. (The unemployment statistics in the last report were incorrectly labeled, Note: As corrections of the 1st have been 2005 made report, in this statistics report.) in the Single-Family Housing Market Details section have been revised to reflect to reflect only single-family housing. Copyright Conditions Las Vegas Metropolitan Housing Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication s items if they cite the publication name, date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research. Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, Phone: (702) Fax: (702) cber@unlv.nevada.edu. Web page: Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 35, 2nd 2005 Page 10