SHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE
|
|
- Basil Dennis
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 SHAMBLING FORWARD. WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE Shamble: To walk in an awkward, lazy, or unsteady manner, shuffling the feet FEBRUARY 12, 2014 David B. Hanson, CPA, CFA Chief Executive Officer WORLD POPULATION 2 1
2 WORLD POPULATION COMPARISON 3 Rest of the World Source: CIA World Factbook WORLD GDP (PURCHASING POWER PARITY 2012 EST.) 4 Source: CIA World Factbook 2
3 GLOBAL GDP COMPARISON AND TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT* 5 Rest of the World * External Debt Public and private debt owed to rest of world Source: CIA World Factbook GLOBAL GDP COMPARISON AND TOTAL NATIONAL DEBT* 6 Debt to GDP Comparison: U.S / China 12.6 / India 4.8 / Italy 1.9 / Spain 1.4 / Germany 3.2 / United Kingdom 2.4 / Switzerland 0.4 / Ireland 0.2 / Source: CIA World Factbook 3
4 GLOBAL GDP PER CAPITA COMPARISON 7 World Average Source: CIA World Factbook WORLD OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION 8 Source: CIA World Factbook 4
5 OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION BY COMPARISON 9 Production: Million Barrels/Day Consumption: Million Barrels/Day Source: CIA World Factbook GLOBAL ECONOMIC MOMENTUM 10 Global Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing Jan'12 Feb'12 Mar'12 Apr'12 May'12 Jun'12 Jul'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Oct'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jan'13 Feb'13 Mar'13 Apr'13 May'13 Jun'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Global U.S Canada U.K Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain Greece Ireland Australia Japan China Indonesia Korea Taiwan India Brazil Mexico Russia Source: CIA World Factbook 5
6 ECONOMIC GEAR BOX: JOBS, HOUSING, AND CONFIDENCE 11 Global Overview Recap of Recent GDP Growth Economic Gear Box Consumer and Small Business Confidence Employment Housing Private Sector Business / The Equity Market The Issue: Government Debt and Spending A Glimpse of Optimism 12 GDP Recap 6
7 QUARTERLY GDP (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) GDP Real Final Sales of Domestic Products (RFSDP) (8.0) (10.0) Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 QUARTERLY GDP NOTEWORTHY 14 Personal Consumption grew between 1.5% 2.5% every quarter from Q1 11 to Q3 13. Q4 13 was 3.3% growth State and Local Gov t spending declined 10, 11, 12, and Q1 13, but has been increasing since Q2 13 Federal Spending has declined in 11 of the last 13 quarters, and was down significantly (12.6%) in Q Real Residential declined for the first time since Q3 10. In spite of double digit growth in 7 of the last 9 quarters, residential investment is only $486B as of Q4 13 down from $765B in
8 DELAWARE GDP VS. U.S. 15 Source: JP Morgan Chase ECONOMIC GEAR BOX EACH GEAR DRIVES THE OTHER 16 Housing used to be ~5% of GDP now it s about 3% Jobs Consumer Spending is ~70% of GDP Unemployed people don t buy houses 1.9 million construction workers remain unemployed Businesses that lack confidence don t hire Housing Confidence Lack of Confidence = Low Spending Unemployment is the biggest influencer of consumer confidence Small Business employs 52% of Americans 8
9 17 Consumer and Small Business LESS DEPRESSED AND LESS FRAGILE 18 Impact of Gov t Shutdown Impact of Fiscal Cliff Impact of Debt Ceiling 9
10 AND IN PRETTY GOODFINANCIALSHAPE % 13.0% Household Debt Service Ratio Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted $90,000 $80,000 Household Net worth Billions USD, not seasonally adjusted 12.5% $70, % 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20, % '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 $10,000 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 20 Employment 10
11 EMPLOYMENT % Unemployment 11.00% 10.00% 10.7% 10.0% Unemployment Rate 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 5.7% 5.2% 7.6% 3.9% 6.1% 4.4% 6.6% 3.00% '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management EMPLOYMENT % Unemployment & Labor Force Participation Rate The Real Story 68% 11.00% 10.00% 66.3% 10.0% 67% 66% Unemployment Rate 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Since 12/31/09: 64.9% 6.6% 62.7% 65% 64% 63% 62% Labor Participation Rate 4.00% 3.00% '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 3.4% drop in unemployment rate 3.2% drop in labor participation rate 61% 60% 11
12 EMPLOYMENT Employment Total Private Payroll Total job gain/loss (thousands) 8.8mm jobs lost mm jobs gained The U.S. economy filled 53 million jobs last year; and 51 million employees left jobs '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13. Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management EMPLOYMENT 24 Source: JP Morgan Chase 12
13 25 Housing a riddle wrapped in an enigma HOUSING STARTS 26 Housing starts unexpectedly fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 835,000 in June but have rebounded back to1m+ as of November Housing Starts About 2/3 of homebuilders from 2007 are out of business The recent increase in average 30 year fixed mortgage rates to ~4.5 may slow purchases and regulatory changes make mortgages hard to get Worst month since '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 Housing Starts 13
14 HOUSING STARTS 27 Housing starts unexpectedly fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 835,000 in June but have rebounded back to1m+ as of November Housing Starts and Mortgage Rates 18.6% And we built 873k houses (vs. 835k in June 2014) 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% About 2/3 of homebuilders from 2007 are out of business % 12.00% The recent increase in average 30 year fixed mortgage rates to ~4.5 may slow purchases and regulatory changes make mortgages hard to get Since 1971 there have been 28 months out of 517 where mortgage rates were lower than now Average Mortgage Rate since 1972 = 6.8% '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 Housing Starts 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% HOUSING STARTS DE 28 Source: JP Morgan Chase 14
15 HOUSING 29 Prices are up nicely but not so much in DE Housing Affordability Index Avg. mortgage payment as a % of household income 40% 35% 30% 25% Affordability remains strong Nov. 2013: 13.2% 20% 15% Average: 20.5% 10% '75 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Home Inventories Millions, annual rate, seasonally adjusted There s nothing to buy 2.0 Nov. 2013: '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management, JP Morgan Chase Source: JP Morgan Asset Management; Census Bureau, Nat l Assn of Realtors OFFICE SPACE 30 Source: JP Morgan Chase 15
16 31 Private Sector and the Equity Markets S&P 500 EARNINGS AND REVENUES PER SHARE 32 $1,200 $1,100 S&P Earnings per share (annual) & Revenue per share $ $120 $100 $1,000 Revenue Per Share $900 $800 $700 $600 $80 $60 $40 Earnings Per Share $500 $20 $400 $0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 16
17 QUITE AROLLER COASTER Mar. 24, 2000 P/E(fwd.) = 25.6x 1,527 Oct. 9, 2002 P/E(fwd.) = 14.1x 777 Oct. 9, 2007 P/E(fwd.) = 15.2x 1,565 Mar. 9, 2009 P/E(fwd.) = 10.3x 677 Dec. 31, 2013 P/E(fwd.) = 15.4x 1,848 Comparative Valuation Characteristics: +106% Mar 2000 Oct 2007 Dec 2013 Index Level +101% 1,527 1,565 1, % 49% 57% P/E Ratio (fwd) 25.6x 15.2x 15.4x Dividend Dec. 31, 1996Yield 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% P/E(fwd.) = 16.0x yr. Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 3.0% '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management STOCK VALUATIONS 34 S&P 500 Current Earnings Yield vs Baa Bond Yield 10.00% 9.00% S&P 500 Earnings Yield: 5.7% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% Moody s Baa Yield: Earnings Yield: 5.7% 2.00% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 17
18 FAIR PRICE FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS 35 P/E and Total Return Over 1-yr. Periods Quarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q % P/E and Total Return Over 5-yr. Annualized Periods Quarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q % 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 0% 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x -20% -20% -40% -40% Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prices are based on the market value of all U.S. corporations and include quarterly dividends. Valuation based on long -term P/E ratio. Note: Orange line denote results of linear regression with R -squared of 0.13 for 1-yr. returns (left) and 0.27 for 5-yr. returns (right). Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13. GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS 36 Weights In MSCI All Country World Index Share of Global GDP 8% 5% 4% United States Europe U.K. Emerging Markets 5% 5% 2% 19% Japan 11% 48% Pacific Canada 16% 8% 16% 51% 3% Source: J.P. Morgan, FFA Investment Management 18
19 MSCI EAFE INDEX AT INFLECTION POINTS % Mar. 29, 2000 P/E(fwd.) = 28.7x 1, % Jul. 16, 2007 P/E(fwd.) = 14.5x 1,212 57% Dec. 31, 2013 P/E(fwd.) = 13.3x % Dec. 31, 1996 P/E(fwd.) = 19.5x % Mar. 12, 2003 P/E(fwd.) = 13.2x 503 Mar. 9, 2009 P/E(fwd.) = 10.2x '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 38 Now time for your prozac: The Federal Government 19
20 FEDERAL FINANCES % 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit/(Surplus) % of GDP 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 7.2% 6.00% 3.00% 5.1% 4.5%4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.6%2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3%2.2%1.3% 1.7%2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 5.0% 0.00% 0.6% 1.1% 3.00% 2.0% 1.9% 6.00% 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus as a % of Nominal GDP (Inverse) 12.00% '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management FEDERAL FINANCES % 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit/(Surplus) % of GDP 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 7.2% 6.00% 3.00% 5.1% 4.5%4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.6%2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3%2.2%1.3% 1.7%2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 5.0% 0.00% 0.6% 1.1% 3.00% 2.0% 1.9% 6.00% 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus as a % of Nominal GDP (Inverse) GDP Growth 12.00% '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 20
21 FEDERAL FINANCES % 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit/(Surplus) % of GDP 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 7.2% 6.00% 3.00% 5.1% 4.5%4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.6%2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3%2.2%1.3% 1.7%2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 5.0% 0.00% 0.6% 1.1% 3.00% 2.0% 1.9% 6.00% 9.00% Federal Budget Deficit Or Surplus as a % of Nominal GDP (Inverse) GDP Growth Spread (Add to Debt to GDP) 12.00% '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management THE DEFICIT ISSTILL AHUGECHALLENGE 42 Federal Budget (billions) Revenue $2,303 $2,450 $2,712 Expense $3,603 $3,537 $3,685 Deficit $1,300 $1,087 $ 973 % of GDP 8.7% 7.0% 6.0% Debt % of GDP 67.7% 72.6% 76.6% 2013 U.S. Federal Revenue (billions): Personal Income $1,234 Corporate Income $ 288 SS, Medicare, FUT $ 951 Excise, Duties, T&E, etc. $ 239 Total $2,712 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,032 Discretionary Spending Mandatory Spending Net Interest 2,193 2,253 2,386 2,545 2,651 1,285 1,264 1,235 1,266 1,277 1,292 1,308 1,329 1,359 1,388 1,420 1, Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2014, Summary Tables S 1 and S 4 2,768 2,958 3,126 3,315 3,552 3, % CAGR 21
22 DOES THE ANSWER LIE IN FAIRER INCOME TAXES? % 80% % of Income (Total $7.8T) % of Taxes (Total $865B) Average Tax Rate Income Splits 87% 88% 98% $400,000 $350,000 71% 68% $300,000 60% 59% $250,000 45% $200,000 40% 37% 34% $150,000 20% 0% 19% 23.4% 20.6% 18.5% 15.2% 13.1% 12% $369,691 $161,579 $116,623 $69,126 $34, % 2.4% Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 25% Top 50% Bottom 50% $100,000 $50,000 $0 Source: Tax Foundation, Data reflects 2010 U.S. Federal Tax returns DOES THEANSWERLIE IN HIGHER INCOME TAX RATES? 44 Source: Political Calculations 22
23 DOES THEANSWERLIE IN HIGHER TAX RATES? 45 Source: Political Calculations 46 A Glimpse of Optimism 23
24 GLOBALGDP PER CAPITA COMPARISON ,000 30,000 United States 25,000 Why? Japan 20,000 Western Europe 15,000 10,000 Eastern Europe Latin America 5,000 Middle East China 0 India, Asia, Africa A WEE BIT OF GOOD NEWS: U.S. PATENT GRANTS , ,000 U.S. U.S. % of World Total 100% 90% 80% 100,000 70% 80,000 60% 50% 60,000 40% 40,000 30% 20,000 20% 10% % 24
25 49 Thank You CONSUMER PRICE INDEX % CPI and Core CPI % change vs. prior year, seasonally adjusted 13.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 1.00% 1.00% 3.00% '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 Core CPI Headline CPI Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 25
26 CAPACITY UTILIZATION 51 Capacity Utilization US Capacity Utilization % of Total Capacity seasonally adjusted % 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% '67 '71 '75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management INTEREST RATES 52 Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on the 10 year note to the lowest in more than a week, on speculation the Federal Reserve will press on with bond buying into next year Aug 97 Feb 98 Aug 98 Feb 99 Aug 99 Feb 00 Aug 00 Feb 01 Aug 01 Feb 02 Aug 02 Feb 03 Aug 03 Feb 04 Aug 04 Feb 05 Aug 05 Feb 06 Aug 06 Feb 07 Aug 07 Feb 08 Aug 08 Feb 09 Aug 09 Feb 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 T Bills 10 Year Bonds Source: Bloomberg, FFA Investment Management 26
2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationDecember 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationEmerging markets the equities perspective. Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price
Emerging markets the equities perspective Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price Audience voting about to begin Proudly supported by our Gold Industry Partner Question What is your fund's weight in Emerging Markets?
More informationTIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda
TIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda Technical Appendix Methodology In our analysis, we employ a statistical procedure called Principal Component Analysis
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017 Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging
More informationMarquette Associates Market Environment
M Marquette Associates Market Environment April 2010 U.S. Economy Fixed Income Markets U.S. Equity Markets International Equity Markets Hedge Fund Markets Real Estate Markets Private Equity and Hedge Fund
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More information2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION
ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and
More information2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
More informationGLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS: IT IS THE STOCKS THAT MATTER ANWAAR WAGNER
GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS: IT IS THE STOCKS THAT MATTER ANWAAR WAGNER Portfolio Manager at Electus AGENDA Emerging Markets (EM) Crises? EM vs Developed Markets (DM) OM GEM Fund It s the shares that matter
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationU.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
More informationBUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC P.O. Box 1206 241 3 rd Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54495-1206 715-422-0700 buenavistainv@buenavistainv.com
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationThe Current Risk Landscape. Axioma Insight Findings Melissa R. Brown, CFA
The Current Risk Landscape Axioma Insight Findings Melissa R. Brown, CFA About Axioma Axioma provides portfolio construction, risk modeling and performance attribution tools to asset managers and asset
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationThe Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7
More informationInvesting in Today s World with Thoughts of Tomorrow. Presented by: Jeff Matthias, CFA
Investing in Today s World with Thoughts of Tomorrow Presented by: Jeff Matthias, CFA Wisconsin Coalition of Annuitants May 11, 2018 Today s Key Takeaways Investor Inputs Market Recap Investment Outlook
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER Statistical tables
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 41, NOVEMBER 2005 APPENDIX Appendix Statistical tables The world economy Table a1 GDP at constant prices a2 Industrial production a3 Consumer prices a4 External current account
More informationPRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 2012
PRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 212 3Q 212 Fund s market value Quarterly numbers, 3 September 212. Billions of kroner 4 3 5 Asset class Value Percentage fund Equities 2 247 6.3% 3 723 4 3 5 3 Fixed Income
More informationThe Forecast for Emerging Markets
The Forecast for Emerging Markets Monday, April 27, 2009 09:30 AM - 10:45 AM Moderator Komal Sri-Kumar, Managing Director, Chief Global Strategist, TCW Group Inc.; Senior Fellow, Milken Institute Speakers
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationJune Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
June 20 Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks JeanJacques Vandenheede Nielsen Global Scorecard Shopping measures appear to be trending upward, driven by gains in China, India, Canada and the U.S., with
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationConvención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013
Citi Equity Capital Markets October 29, 2013 Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013 1 1. Global Markets 2 Price Performance (%) GDP Growth (%) Global Environment at Inflection Point Developed
More informationMarket Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationNASDAQ Global Index. More information about the Index can be found at
NASDAQ Global Index The NASDAQ Global Index is a float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of global equities covering over 98% of the entire listed market capitalization
More informationSolutions Conference Year End Global Economy & World Political Outlook Leon C. LaBrecque, JD, CPA, CFP, CFA RAIN IN EUROPE?
Solutions Conference Year End 2014 Global Economy & World Political Outlook Leon C. LaBrecque, JD, CPA, CFP, CFA RAIN IN EUROPE? Global Equity Markets: Returns EAFE Return to Reach 2007 peak* EME Return
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 17, 2011 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union 2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationGlobal Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile. 4-6 October 2017
Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile 4-6 October 2017 Graham Robinson Global Construction Perspectives Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of global studies of the construction
More informationGLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW
2016 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL FIXED INCOME OVERVIEW Edward A. Wiese, CFA, Head of Fixed Income November 18, 2015 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Summary Environment Developed market yields
More informationTURNING THE CORNER. Glenn Hutchins July Glenn Hutchins All rights reserved.
Glenn Hutchins July 15 Glenn Hutchins 15. All rights reserved. The Worst Economic Recovery in History Recoveries from Worst Recessions Note: Annual GDP Growth for the years subsequent to each recession
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationNigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group September 21 Nigeria Overview A rebasing of GDP in 213 has made Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa with the largest population; the economy is growing rapidly but remains
More informationTransitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion
Transitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion AUGUSTINE FAUCHER, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMICS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM The Great Recession Is Over Recessions since World War II Peak Trough
More informationQuarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018
Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2018 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with [insert name of Advisor]. DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company. Market
More informationNonfarm Payroll Employment
PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to
More informationSan Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity
M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index
More informationInvestment Research Team Update
Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs
More informationQuarterly Update. Jessica Burbrink, CFP, CTFA. Clayton Bill, CFA. Kathy Clark. Andrew Heck, JD, CTFA, CFIRS
Quarterly Update Jessica Burbrink, CFP, CTFA Clayton Bill, CFA Kathy Clark Andrew Heck, JD, CTFA, CFIRS RATE OF RETURN (%) Capital markets PERIODS ENDING DECEMBER 2017 Capital Market Returns 40 37.3 30
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationEconomic Indicators December 2017
Economic Indicators December 2017 General Economy GDP % Change U.S. GDP Growth First two consecutive quarters over 3% in 3 years 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Last 3 quarters: 3Q17: 3.2% 2Q17:
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationRisk Has Trended Down... So Should I Be Nervous?
Risk Has Trended Down... So Should I Be Nervous? Presentation to QWAFAFEW Melissa R. Brown, CFA Senior Director of Applied Research, Axioma January 8, 2013 Agenda Risk fell dramatically throughout 2012,
More informationAugust 8, 2006 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158. Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
August 8, 6 Authorized for Public Release 148 of 158 Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Class II -- Restricted FR Page 1 of 4 Realized Volatility of MSCI Equity Indices 35 25 15 5 22 August 8, 6 Authorized
More informationChart 1. U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom
Chart 1 U.S. Personal Saving Rate and Household Debt (consu plus mortgage) as a % of Disposable Personal Incom 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Last Points 4Q 2015- Saving Rate, 5.4%; HH Debt, 1 140% 130% 120%
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationQ Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
More informationCurrency Market Outlook EMPRES-7173
Currency Market Outlook 1 Currency Markets Outlook certainly one lesson is that we should get used to periods of higher volatility Mario Draghi President of the European Central Bank ECB Press Conference
More informationNorth American Steel Industry Recent Market Developments, Future Prospects and Key Challenges
North American Steel Industry Recent Market Developments, Future Prospects and Key Challenges OECD Steel Committee December 1-11, 29 Paris, France * American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Steel Manufacturers
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential
More informationAug-12. Oct-13. Dec-14. Feb-16
Feb-2 Apr-3 Jun-4 Aug-5 Oct-6 Feb-9 Apr-1 Jun-11 Aug-12 Feb-16 Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Richard Farr Jim McGovern U.S. Trading European Trading Chief Market Strategist Market Strategist Tourmaline
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationMonetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates as at June and October.¹) Percent. January December ²) US Euro area³) UK 9 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for July 2011 All data are as of Friday, July 29, 2011. The regional indices are based
More informationMonetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Quarterly Review Global Equity Market Update GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 2002 2003 2004 2005
More informationExecutive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011
Executive Board Meeting September Global economic growth GDP growth. Four-quarter change. Q Q - US Euro area Emerging economies¹) Emerging Asian economies¹) - - - 8 ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationFed described the economy as "slow" and said employers remained reluctant to create jobs and Inflation "somewhat low.
08 Nov 2010 UNITED STATES The ISM manufacturing index rose to 56.9 in October from 54.4 in September, led by growth in autos, computers and exported goods. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3
More informationFirst estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationEconomic Forecast 2018
Economic Forecast 2018 Economic Outlook 2018 Featured Speaker: Daniel Morgan Senior Portfolio Manager This report has been prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2014
April June August 1, 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks Monetary Policy Conduction Monetary policy has focused
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationMarket Review and Outlook. Todd Centurino, CFA
Market Review and Outlook Todd Centurino, CFA Q1 2017 Global Economy: On the Upswing Ranked Returns (%) Emerging Market Equities 11.40 European Equities 7.40 US Equities 6.10 Global Bonds 2.00 US Treasuries
More information