June Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede

Transcription

1 June 20 Todd Hale James Russo Jonathan Banks JeanJacques Vandenheede

2 Nielsen Global Scorecard Shopping measures appear to be trending upward, driven by gains in China, India, Canada and the U.S., with no country reporting an overall decline in results compared to the previous month. KPI Summary Global Topline: Summary of All Countries Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Russia Chg vs. Previous Month Mar Apr Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Spain United Kingdom United States Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Very Negative: <= 4% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between 1% and 4%

3 GDP Year over Year The UBS Global Economics team now expects 20 world GDP to contract 1%, before returning to growth of 2.8% in % 6% 4% Downward revisions to NA and Western Euro 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Upward revisions to Asia Eastern Europe Asia LatAm North America Western Europe 20 actuals 20 forecasts, Mar 20 revised forecasts, June 2010 forecast Source: UBS, June 20 update

4 April TopLine: Country Results US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR RU IN CN Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Very Negative: <= 4% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between 1% and 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

5 world s largest energyexporting economy, mixed Eco data Economic Recovery: Leaders & Laggards

6 Historic Levels of Monetary Stimulus Fiscal Stimulus plans of select G20 countries United States $787 billion 5.5% of GDP Britain $28.5 b over 1% of GDP Germany $102.4 b 3.25% of GDP Italy $8.85 b 0.4% of GDP Russia $62 b 5.4% of GDP China $585 billion 13.3% of GDP Canada $31 b 2.5% of GDP France $32.87 b 1.3% of GDP South Korea $49.28 b 5.7% of GDP Japan $122.9 b 2% of GDP Australia $33.59 b 2% of GDP Argentina $30 b (approx.) Turkey $0.43 b 1.5% of GDP South Africa $75 b 27% of GDP India $4 b 0.4% of GDP Indonesia $6.1 b 1.3% of GDP Source The Standard Thursday 2 nd April

7 Country Highlights & Insights

8 USA Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Very Negative: <= 4% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Negative: between 1% and 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

9 Key USA Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 2.0% 1.1% 2.5% 2.2% Consumer Expenditure 2.8% 0.2% 1.0% 1.9% Inflation Rate 2.9% 3.8% 0.6% 0.9% Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.8% 9.1% 9.6% Savings Rate 0.6% 1.8% 5.6% 5.8% Despite rising unemployment return to growth in 2010 Source: UBS, June 20 update

10 Canada Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84

11 Key Canada Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 2.7% 0.6% 2.1% 2.4% Consumer Expenditure 4.5% 3.3% 0.9% 1.3% Inflation Rate 2.1% 2.4% 0.6% 2.3% Unemployment Rate 6.0% 6.1% 8.3% 8.8% Savings Rate 2.7% 3.6% 5.0% 5.2% Rising unemployment and lower consumer expenditures should lead to GDP contraction in 20 Source: UBS, June 20 update

12 France Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

13 Key France Economic Measures GDP % % 20E 2.8% 2010E 1.5% Consumer Expenditure 2.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.3% Inflation Rate 1.6% 3.2% 1.3% 1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.3% 10.1% 11.2% Savings Rate 15.8% 16.2% 15.3% 14.4% Unemployment rates over 10%, leads to weakening GDP estimates Source: UBS, June 20 update

14 Germany Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

15 Key Germany Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 2.6% 1.0% 5.6% 0.3% Consumer Expenditure 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% Inflation Rate 2.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.3% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 7.7% 8.6% 11.2% Savings Rate 10.9% 11.4% 12.9% 14.0% Unlike other countries in this report, German GDP is expected to weaken in 2010, due to declining consumer spending, high unemployment and rising savings Source: UBS, June 20 update

16 UK Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

17 Key UK Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 3.0% 0.7% 3.9% 1.1% Consumer Expenditure 3.0% 1.4% 2.8% 0.7% Inflation Rate 2.3% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0% Unemployment Rate 2.5% 3.3% 6.3% 7.8% Savings Rate 2.2% 1.0% 7.5% 7.8% Along with consumer expenditures and weak labor market, industrial production negatively impacting 20 GDP estimates Source: UBS, June 20 update

18 Italy Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

19 Key Italy Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 1.4% 0.5% 4.6% 1.4% Consumer Expenditure 1.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% Inflation Rate 2.0% 3.5% 1.2% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.7% 8.1% 8.9% Savings Rate 9.8% 9.2% 10% 10.2% Unemployment rate expected to jump in Italy during, leading to ongoing recession Source: UBS, June 20 update

20 Spain Summary Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

21 Key Spain Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 3.7% 1.0% 4.5% 0.4% Consumer Expenditure 3.4% 0.4% 4.0% 0.5% Inflation Rate 2.8% 4.1% 0.3% 2.1% Unemployment Rate 8.3% 11.0% 20.1% 25.7% Savings Rate 10.4% 9.2% 19.6% 27.0% Surging unemployment rates in Spain as spending contracts and savings increase Source: UBS, June 20 update

22 Brazil Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84

23 Key Brazil Economic Measures E GDP 5.7% 5.1% 1.2% 2010E 3.7% Consumer Expenditure Inflation Rate 4.5% 5.9% 4.5% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Savings Rate Still forecasting GDP growth in 20, but growth rate likely to slow Source: UBS, June 20 update Blanks indicate data not available for the period

24 India Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr INMay Jun Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~ Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~ Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~ Are consumers spending more per trip? ~ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from the Annual Consumer Confidence study. Last read in 10/, India figure (114) benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84 ~ India data change vs YAGO Sourced from Annual Shopper Trends last read in Nov 20

25 Key India Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 9.0% 6.6% 6.2% 8.0% Consumer Expenditure 17.1% 14.1% Inflation Rate 6.2% 8.1% 6.2% 6.0% Unemployment Rate 7.3% 6.8% 7.8% Savings Rate 34.9% 36% 36.7% India GDP growth estimates revised upward in June 20 Source: UBS, June 20 update Blanks indicate data not available for the period

26 China Summary Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers moving to Store Brands? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Are retailers selling more on promotion? Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^ Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4% Neutral: between 1 and +1% Negative: between 1% and 4% Very Negative: <= 4% *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO ^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/ and is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77

27 Key China Economic Measures E 2010E GDP 13.0% 9.0% 7.5% 7.5% Consumer Expenditure 10.6% 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% Inflation Rate 4.8% 5.9% 0.5% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% Savings Rate Huge stimulus measures in China reaccelerating growth Source: UBS, June 20 update Blanks indicate data not available for the period

28 Contact List United States: James Russo, Todd Hale, Western Europe: JeanJacques Vandenheede, Jonathan Banks, Canada: Carman Allison, Russia: Natalia Ignatyeva, India: Jayashree Janardhanan, China: Phoebe Lam,