History Shaping the Future: Presentation Title

Transcription

1 History Shaping the Future: Presentation Title Benchmarking and Performance Trends in the Hotel Sector for Strategic Decision Making Subtitle Elizabeth Randall Winkle Managing Director, STR Global Date and Location Fáilte Ireland Industry Breakfast Briefing 2 October 2012 STR Global Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited

2 Agenda Global Overview mixed results Spotlight on Europe stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland recovery Pipeline Europe Forecast what does the future hold?

3 Global RevPAR RevPAR % change Europe YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD % +9.9% +5.8% +5.3% North America $ YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD % +6.0% +8.0% +6.8% Asia Pacific $ YE 09 YE 10 YE 11 YTD % +17.5% +8.8% +3.3% Middle East & Africa $ YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12 Middle East -19.4% -6.3% +2.9% +8.9% N. Africa -11.9% +11.7% -36.3% +10.5% S. Africa -13.4% +12.7% -0.6% - 3.6%

4 Moderate Demand growth w/ muted supply growth 12% Year to date 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revpar USD$ 10% 8% 6% 4% North America Asia Pacific Middle East D E M A N D 2% 0% -2% Europe 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% SUPPLY

5 RGI almost to 1.0 RGI Index on YTD Aug 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros Middle East Europe North America Asia Pacific YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YTD Aug 09 YTD Aug 10 YTD Aug 11 YTD Aug 12

6 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Asia Pacific Total AP, ADR US$, Jan 08 Aug 12 $145 Sep 08 $141 $140 Aug 12 $139 $135 $130 $125 $120 $115 $110-17% +18.8% 15 months 33 months Dec 09 $117 ADR $

7 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Middle East & Africa Total MEA, ADR US$, Jan 08 Aug 12 $165 $160 Jan 09 $156 Jan 12 $163 $155 $150 $145 $140-4% 14 months 23 months Feb 10 $150 +9% $135 ADR $

8 Europe - taking longer to recover Total Europe, ADR Euros, 12 MMA 2008 YTD Apr July % +9.6% 23 months 29 months Feb

9 Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted F $120 $110 $100 $90 $84.66 $87.07 $88.45 If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year Nominal ADR Yr 2000, Grown by CPI $90.46 $92.87 $96.02 $99.12 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $80 $84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $ $ $98.07 $98.06 $ $ $ Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

10 Agenda Global Overview mixed results Spotlight on Europe stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland recovery Pipeline Europe Forecast what does the future hold?

11 Europe in detail Jan-July 2012 YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 65% Eastern 58% Northern 69% Southern 61% Western 65% YTD Occ ADR RevPAR Top 65% Middle 65% % 9% Lower 66% % Sample rooms 36% Eastern Northern Southern Western 11

12 Amsterdam Athens Barcelona Berlin Brussels Budapest Dublin Helsinki Istanbul Lisbon London Madrid Moscow Paris Prague Rome Vienna Warsaw Zurich Selected European Cities 2012 YTD, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Occupancy ADR

13 London high Occ and Paris with high ADR Jan-Aug % Occupancy ADR 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

14 Jan-99 Aug-99 Mar-00 Oct-00 May-01 Dec-01 Jul-02 Feb-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 European long-term view Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR 135,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 95,000,000 85,000,000 75,000,000 65,000, Supply Demand RevPAR ( )

15 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 European long-term view YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR Occupancy ADR

16 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Spotlight on downturns YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Occupancy ADR

17 Agenda Global Overview mixed results Spotlight on Europe stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland on the recovery road Pipeline Europe Forecast what does the future hold?

18 Dublin revpar growth just surpassed demand 2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revpar (Euros )

19 Dublin ADR on the road to recovery Dublin, ADR Euros, 12 MMA 2008 YTD August 2012 Jan Aug months +11.1% Dec

20 Cork stable supply & demand & rising revpar 2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revpar (Euros )

21 Cork rate on the recovery highway Cork, ADR Euros, 12 MMA 2008 YTD August 2012 Aug Aug % Jun months

22 Irish markets encouraging growth Jan-August 2012, %chg, Occ and ADR (Euros )

23 Agenda Global Overview mixed results Spotlight on Europe stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland recovery Pipeline Europe Forecast what does the future hold?

24 Pipeline - Europe July 2012, pipeline share Pipeline share 3.75% 3.63% 11.18% 5.22% 13.59% 30.50% United Kingdom Russia Germany Turkey France Italy

25 Agenda Global Overview mixed results Spotlight on Europe stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland recovery Pipeline Europe Forecast what does the future hold?

26 Dublin Annual Trends and Forecast by Year Euros currency as of August 2012 forecast 15.0% Annual Trends - Percent Change from Last Year Occupancy ADR RevPAR 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%

27 Dublin what do the next three quarters hold? Euros currency as of August 2012 forecast Dublin

28 Dublin Dublin YE 2012 and 2013 forecast Euros currency as of August 2012 forecast Annual Performance Occupancy ADR RevPAR Year % % Change Euro - % Change Euro - % Change Forecast(f) 2012 f % % % 2013 f % % %

29 Forecast Selected Cities 2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition Declines expected Growth expected Athens Amsterdam London Madrid Barcelona Moscow Regional UK Berlin Prague Milan Brussels Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale Zurich Budapest Rome Copenhagen Vienna Dublin Warsaw

30 Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand % Change *Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly F GDP Source: Oxford Economics

31 Contact details Elizabeth Randall Winkle You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.