National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1991 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report April 26 - May 01, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 98 60% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 282 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 86 4% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 86 4% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 379 9% Health Care Issues 305 5% Senior s Issues 3 6% Women s Issues 77 4% Education Issues 35 7% Energy Issues 80 4% Other 6% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 39 20% Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 373 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL3_1 POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 67 8% Should not be done 35 7% Dont know/no opinion 48 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 345 7% Not too important a priority 326 6% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 66 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 95 0% Should not be done 297 5% Dont know/no opinion 72 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 227 % Should not be done 54 3% Dont know/no opinion 242 2% Page 3

4 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 360 8% Should not be done 94 5% Dont know/no opinion 237 2% POL3_8 POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 224 % Should not be done 43 7% Dont know/no opinion 62 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 344 7% Not too important a priority 27 4% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 38 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 273 4% Should not be done 299 5% Dont know/no opinion 66 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 26 6% Should not be done 45 2% Dont know/no opinion 70 9% Page 4

5 POL3_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional regulations on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 240 2% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 38 7% POL4_1 POL5 POL6 POL7 POL8 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Rear Admiral Ronny Jackson, the White Houses top physician, removing himself from consideration to run the Department of Veterans Affair amid allegations of misconduct A lot 367 8% Some % Not much % Nothing at all % When it comes to U.S. environmental policy, should the federal government... Do more to help U.S. businesses, even if it weakens % environmental protections Do more to strengthen environmental protections, even % if it hurts some businesses Dont Know/No Opinion % How concerned are you with the issue of climate change and the impact it is having on the U.S. environment? Very concerned % Somewhat concerned % Not too concerned 3 5 6% Not concerned at all 222 % Dont Know/No Opinion 4 6% As you may know, the Paris Agreement is a deal reached between 195 countries to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Knowing this, do you believe the U.S. should be a part of the Paris Agreement, or not? Yes, the U.S. should be a part of the Paris Agreement 67 59% No, the U.S. should not be a part of the Paris Agreement 368 8% Dont Know/No Opinion % Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? The U.S. should provide nancial aid to help developing % nations reduce carbon emissions in their own countries The U.S. should not provide aid to help developing % nations reduce carbon emissions in their own countries Dont Know/No Opinion 5 26% Page 5

6 POL9 Do you believe the U.S. should be MORE concerned with: Protecting our coal industry and American industrial 65 33% sector jobs Protecting the environment and reducing greenhouse % gas emissions Dont Know/No Opinion 286 4% POL10 POL11_1 POL11_4 Generally speaking, would you say that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is doing enough or not enough to address the issue of climate change and the impact it is having on the U.S. environment? The EPA is doing enough to address the issue of climate % change The EPA is not doing enough to address the issue of % climate change Dont Know/No Opinion 48 24% you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Jeff Sessions, Attorney General Very favorable 26 6% Somewhat favorable 385 9% Somewhat unfavorable 330 7% Very unfavorable % Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of 258 3% you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Alex Azar, Health and Human Services Secretary Very favorable 84 4% Somewhat favorable 255 3% Somewhat unfavorable 56 8% Very unfavorable 2 7 % Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % Page 6

7 POL11_5 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State Very favorable 226 % Somewhat favorable 36 8% Somewhat unfavorable 235 2% Very unfavorable 3 0 6% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of 353 8% POL11_6 POL11_7 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Steve Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury Very favorable 7 6% Somewhat favorable 307 5% Somewhat unfavorable 95 0% Very unfavorable 337 7% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. James Mattis, Secretary of Defense Very favorable 337 7% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 87 9% Very unfavorable 9 0% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % Page 7

8 POL11_8 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Ryan Zinke, Secretary of the Interior Very favorable 74 4% Somewhat favorable 259 3% Somewhat unfavorable 53 8% Very unfavorable 283 4% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % POL11_9 POL11_10 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Sonny Perdue, Secretary of Agriculture Very favorable 96 5% Somewhat favorable 294 5% Somewhat unfavorable 44 7% Very unfavorable 240 2% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce Very favorable 95 5% Somewhat favorable 242 2% Somewhat unfavorable 55 8% Very unfavorable 243 2% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % Page 8

9 POL11_11 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Elaine Chao, Secretary of Transportation Very favorable 92 5% Somewhat favorable 304 5% Somewhat unfavorable 77 9% Very unfavorable 205 0% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % POL11_12 POL11_13 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy Very favorable 40 7% Somewhat favorable 347 7% Somewhat unfavorable 98 0% Very unfavorable % Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education Very favorable 54 8% Somewhat favorable 273 4% Somewhat unfavorable 98 0% Very unfavorable % Heard of, No Opinion 346 7% Never heard of % Page 9

10 POL11_14 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. John Kelly, White House Chief of Staff Very favorable 20 0% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 265 3% Very unfavorable 266 3% Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of 382 9% POL11_15 POL11_16 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Scott Pruitt, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Very favorable 06 5% Somewhat favorable 278 4% Somewhat unfavorable 95 0% Very unfavorable % Heard of, No Opinion % Never heard of % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Ben Carson, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Very favorable 289 5% Somewhat favorable 363 8% Somewhat unfavorable 252 3% Very unfavorable % Heard of, No Opinion 336 7% Never heard of 275 4% Page 10

11 POL11_17 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never heard of. Nikki Haley, UN Ambassador Very favorable 322 6% Somewhat favorable 379 9% Somewhat unfavorable 88 9% Very unfavorable 79 9% Heard of, No Opinion 372 9% Never heard of % POL12 POL13 POL14 POL15 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Pruitt is doing as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency? Do you think Donald Trumps White House Staff: Strongly approve 03 5% Somewhat approve 343 7% Somewhat disapprove 26 3% Strongly disapprove 4 2 % Dont Know/No Opinion % Serves him well % Does not serve him well % Dont Know/No Opinion % Generally, how good of a job would you say the Trump administration is doing when it comes to hiring and retaining quali ed people? Excellent 69 9% Good 320 6% Fair 349 8% Poor % Dont Know/No Opinion 69 8% Do you think President Donald Trumps administration is running: Very well 227 % Somewhat well % Somewhat chaotically % Very chaotically 84 42% Dont Know/No Opinion 04 5% Page 11

12 POL16_1 Would you say that each of the following are a reasonable or not-so-reasonable for a President to re a member of their Cabinet? The Cabinet member and the President disagree on policy Very reasonable 2 % Somewhat reasonable % Not too reasonable % Not reasonable at all % Dont Know/No Opinion 322 6% POL16_4 POL16_5 POL16_6 Would you say that each of the following are a reasonable or not-so-reasonable for a President to re a member of their Cabinet? The Cabinet member and the President do not get along personally Very reasonable 6 8% Somewhat reasonable 367 8% Not too reasonable % Not reasonable at all % Dont Know/No Opinion 327 6% Would you say that each of the following are a reasonable or not-so-reasonable for a President to re a member of their Cabinet? The Cabinet member uses taxpayer money irresponsibly Very reasonable 00 55% Somewhat reasonable 250 3% Not too reasonable 23 6% Not reasonable at all 240 2% Dont Know/No Opinion 279 4% Would you say that each of the following are a reasonable or not-so-reasonable for a President to re a member of their Cabinet? The Cabinet member makes a decision in their position that the President thinks re ects poorly on the administration Very reasonable 324 6% Somewhat reasonable % Not too reasonable 4 2 % Not reasonable at all 262 3% Dont Know/No Opinion 347 7% Page 12

13 POL17 As you may know, Scott Pruitt, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, is under investigation for ethical infractions related to the amount of taxpayer money he has spent while in office, speci cally on travel, his security detail and pay raises for his personal aides. In congressional hearings, Pruitt has testi ed that he delegated authority to make spending decisions to members of his staff. Based on what you know, has Pruitt conducted himself appropriately or inappropriately in his position as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency? He has conducted himself appropriately 2 0 % He has conducted himself inappropriately 73 59% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL18 POL19_1 POL19_4 POL19_5 And based on what you know, do you believe that Scott Pruitt should be removed from his position as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency? Yes, he should be removed % No, he should not be removed 232 2% Dont Know/No Opinion % Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull Very favorable 240 2% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 22 6% Very unfavorable 5 3% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? British Prime Minister Theresa May Very favorable 364 8% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 92 0% Very unfavorable 9 5% Don t Know / No Opinion 72 36% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Very favorable % Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 69 8% Very unfavorable 7 6% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 13

14 POL19_6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? French President Emmanuel Macron Very favorable 368 8% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 53 8% Very unfavorable 66 3% Don t Know / No Opinion 8 4 % POL19_7 POL19_8 POL19_9 POL19_10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? German Chancellor Angela Merkel Very favorable 338 7% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 2 3 % Very unfavorable 07 5% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni Very favorable 36 7% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 8 6% Very unfavorable 54 3% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Very favorable 245 2% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 38 7% Very unfavorable 6 3% Don t Know / No Opinion % Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following international leaders? Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto Very favorable 90 0% Somewhat favorable % Somewhat unfavorable 343 7% Very unfavorable 99 0% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 14

15 POL20 How much con dence do you have in President Trump to handle threats posed by Iran? A lot % Some 364 8% Not much 300 5% No con dence at all % Dont Know/No Opinion 02 5% POL21 indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 indpresapp_7 As you may know, the United States and other countries made a deal in 2015 to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to manufacture nuclear weapons. This agreement is sometimes referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this agreement? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 2 8 % Strongly oppose 298 5% Dont Know/No Opinion 368 9% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable 329 7% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 00 50% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 15

16 indpresapp_8 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable 79 40% Total Unfavorable 8 4 % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 85 4% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 255 3% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable 77 39% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 234 2% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 62 3 % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 377 9% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 39 20% Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable 340 7% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 7 36% Page 16

17 indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Ronny Jackson Total Favorable 253 3% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters 99 00% xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 874 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) 66 33% PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 308 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 334 7% PID/Gender: Ind Women 328 6% PID/Gender: Rep Men 290 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 3 3 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 790 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree 47 24% Educ: Post-grad 268 3% Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #180444, April-May, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k 50 58% Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k+ 26 3% xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 364 8% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 323 6% N 709 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 56 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 30 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian 30 57% Relig: All Non-Christian % N 988 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban 89 45% Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 49 7% Employ: Self-Employed 20 0% Employ: Homemaker 32 7% Employ: Student 78 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 7 9% Employ: Other 9 0% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 19

20 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 98 60% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 905 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 282 4% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 905 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 379 9% #1 Issue: Health Care 305 5% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 3 6% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 77 4% #1 Issue: Education 35 7% #1 Issue: Energy 80 4% #1 Issue: Other 6% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 2 4 % N 655 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 98 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 989 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 355 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 20

21 National Tracking Poll #180444, April-May, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 906 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 344 7% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 250 3% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 906 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 21

22 Morning Consult Page 22