FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, THE BRICS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. EEA-NYC February 27, 2015
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1 FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, THE BRICS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Marcelo Bianconi Department of Economics Tufts University Joe A. Yoshino Department of Economics University of Sao Paulo EEA-NYC
2 What is this paper about? Does market versus bank-based financial systems impact macroeconomic performance?
3 What is this paper about? The Test Sample: Under a given classification of countries into market versus bank-based financial system, where do BRICS fit?
4 Bank-based vs Market Based Financial Systems Bank-based financial system: banks play a leading role in mobilizing savings, allocating capital, overseeing the investment decisions of corporate managers, and providing risk management vehicles.
5 Bank-based vs Market Based Financial Systems Bank-based financial system: banks play a leading role in mobilizing savings, allocating capital, overseeing the investment decisions of corporate managers, and providing risk management vehicles. Market-based financial system: securities markets share center stage with banks in terms of getting society s savings to firms, exerting corporate control, and easing risk management.
6 Bank-based vs Market Based Financial Systems MICHIEL J. BIJLSMA AND GIJSBERT T. J. ZWART THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS IN EUROPE, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN 2013, WP Brueguel Institute, Feb. Levine, Ross (2011) Regulating Financial Markets and Institutions to Promote Growth, in Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2011 Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Ross Levine BANK-BASED AND MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISONS Development Research Group, The World Bank, and Finance Department, University of Minnesota WP, 2000 Rajan, R. and L. Zingales (2003) Banks and Markets: The Changing Character of European Finance, in The transformation of the European financial system, eds. V. Gaspar, P. Hartmann, O. Sleijpen, Frankfurt, ECB
7 Data Unbalanced Panel: 34 countries, yearly observations (25 years)
8 Data Country aggregation Bijlsma and Zwart (2013) via PCA Market based EU: Netherlands, UK, Belgium, France, Finland and Sweden Bank based EU: Austria, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain Eastern EU: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia Outliers: Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa US Traditional market-based Japan Traditional bank-based
9 Data: Equity funding Stock market capitalization BRICS, Bank-based, Mkt-based, Outliers, Eastern EU, US_Japan smc smc smc smc smc smc
10 Data: Equity funding Growth of stock market capitalization BRICS, Bank-based, Mkt-based, Outliers, Eastern EU, US_Japan g_smc g_smc g_smc g_smc g_smc g_smc
11 Data: Bank-intermediated credit Credit to Private Sector BRICS, Bank-based, Mkt-based, Outliers, Eastern EU, US_Japan crdps crdps crdps crdps crdps crdps
12 Data: Bank-intermediated credit Growth of credit to Private Sector BRICS, Bank-based, Mkt-based, Outliers, Eastern EU, US_Japan g_crdps g_crdps g_crdps g_crdps g_crdps g_crdps
13 Data: Macroeconomic Performance Growth of real GDP BRICS, Bank-based, Mkt-based, Outliers, Eastern EU, US_Japan grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp
14 Econometric Models and Empirical Results Panel regressions: _ _ 3 _ 4 5 _ where i indexes the country, t indexes the year, interactions are between stock market capitalization and credit to the private sector (and growth rates) and the classifications; trend is a time trend.
15 Econometric Models and Empirical Results grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp L.grgdp 0.471*** 0.412*** 0.325*** 0.289*** smc ** *** ** crdps ** * *** *** int_bric_smc * int_bric_g~c * int_bric_c~s *** i~d_eu_crdps *** int_mkt~_smc * int_mkt~gsmc * int_m~_crdps *** int_out_cr~s * FE Y Y Country FE Y Y Trend ** ** _cons ** 1.871** N adj. R-sq AIC * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Note: All other variables included but not statistically significant. int_bric_smc = bric * smc int_bric_g~c = bric * gsmc int_bric_c~s = bric * crdps i~d_eu_crdps = bank_based_eu * crdps int_mkt~_smc = mkt_based * smc int_mkt~gsmc = mkt_based* gsmc int_m~_crdps = mkt_based * crdps int_out_cr~s = outliers * crdps
16 Econometric Models and Empirical Results grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp L.grgdp 0.471*** 0.412*** 0.325*** 0.289*** smc ** *** ** crdps ** * *** *** int_bric_smc * int_bric_g~c * int_bric_c~s *** i~d_eu_crdps *** int_mkt~_smc * int_mkt~gsmc * int_m~_crdps *** int_out_cr~s * FE Y Y Country FE Y Y Trend ** ** _cons ** 1.871** N adj. R-sq AIC * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Note: All other variables included but not statistically significant. int_bric_smc = bric * smc int_bric_g~c = bric * gsmc int_bric_c~s = bric * crdps i~d_eu_crdps = bank_based_eu * crdps int_mkt~_smc = mkt_based * smc int_mkt~gsmc = mkt_based* gsmc int_m~_crdps = mkt_based * crdps int_out_cr~s = outliers * crdps
17 Econometric Models and Empirical Results grgdp grgdp grgdp grgdp L.grgdp 0.471*** 0.412*** 0.325*** 0.289*** smc ** *** ** crdps ** * *** *** int_bric_smc * int_bric_g~c * int_bric_c~s *** i~d_eu_crdps *** int_mkt~_smc * int_mkt~gsmc * int_m~_crdps *** int_out_cr~s * FE Y Y Country FE Y Y Trend ** ** _cons ** 1.871** N adj. R-sq AIC * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Note: All other variables included but not statistically significant. int_bric_smc = bric * smc int_bric_g~c = bric * gsmc int_bric_c~s = bric * crdps i~d_eu_crdps = bank_based_eu * crdps int_mkt~_smc = mkt_based * smc int_mkt~gsmc = mkt_based* gsmc int_m~_crdps = mkt_based * crdps int_out_cr~s = outliers * crdps
18 Econometric Models and Empirical Results Panel Vector Autoregressions (VAR) via GMM By classification, bivariate models, each variable and growth of real GDP, lag length one where i indexes the country, t indexes the year, interactions are between stock market capitalization and credit to the private sector (and growth rates) and the classifications and trend is a time trend. Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior: evidence from Panel VAR (Inessa Love with Lea Ziccino), The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46 (2006),
19 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: BRICS g_smc g_smc:g_smc grgdp:g_smc g_smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_smc grgdp ALL grgdp g_smc ALL
20 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: BRICS g_crdps g_crdps:g_crdps grgdp:g_crdps g_crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_crdps grgdp ALL grgdp g_crdps ALL
21 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Bank-based - smc smc:smc grgdp:smc smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 smc grgdp ALL grgdp smc ALL
22 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Bank-based g_smc g_smc:g_smc grgdp:g_smc g_smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_smc grgdp ALL grgdp g_smc ALL
23 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Bank-based crdps crdps:crdps grgdp:crdps crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 crdps grgdp ALL grgdp crdps ALL
24 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Bank-based g_crdps g_crdps:g_crdps grgdp:g_crdps g_crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_crdps grgdp ALL grgdp g_crdps ALL
25 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Market-based - smc smc:smc grgdp:smc smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 smc grgdp ALL grgdp smc ALL
26 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Market-based g_smc g_smc:g_smc grgdp:g_smc g_smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_smc grgdp ALL grgdp g_smc ALL
27 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Market-based crdps crdps:crdps grgdp:crdps crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 crdps grgdp ALL grgdp crdps ALL
28 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Market-based g_crdps g_crdps:g_crdps grgdp:g_crdps g_crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_crdps grgdp ALL grgdp g_crdps ALL
29 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Outliers g_smc g_smc:g_smc grgdp:g_smc g_smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_smc grgdp ALL grgdp g_smc ALL
30 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Outliers crdps crdps:crdps grgdp:crdps crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 crdps grgdp ALL grgdp crdps ALL
31 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Eastern Europe - smc smc:smc grgdp:smc smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 smc grgdp ALL grgdp smc ALL
32 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Eastern Europe g_smc g_smc:g_smc grgdp:g_smc g_smc:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_smc grgdp ALL grgdp g_smc ALL
33 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Eastern Europe crdps crdps:crdps grgdp:crdps crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 crdps grgdp ALL grgdp crdps ALL
34 Econometric Models and Empirical Results: Eastern Europe g_crdps g_crdps:g_crdps grgdp:g_crdps g_crdps:grgdp grgdp:grgdp impulse variable: response variable Ha: Excluded variable Granger-causes Equation variable Equation \ Excluded chi2 df Prob > chi2 g_crdps grgdp ALL grgdp g_crdps ALL
35 In summary: o o o The Question: Does market versus bank-based financial systems impact macroeconomic performance? Yes, bank intermediation (credit/gdp) impacts significantly, regardless of the financial system more is needed to identify the effects
36 In summary: o o o The Test Sample: Under a given classification of countries into market versus bank-based financial system, where do BRICS fit? Both, stock market cap and credit/gdp impact BRICS macro performance But, growth of stock market cap impact growth more significantly in the BRICS from PVAR, and give a closer fit in panel regressions
37 Thank You! Comments and suggestions welcome:
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