JUNE S&P 500 INDEX 2,618.00

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1 Tuesday, April 10, 2018 U.S. Stocks Gave Up Gains Late to Close Marginally Higher JUNE S&P 500 INDEX 2, (+0.13%) Day High: 2, Day Low: 2, U.S. equities pared most of the day s gains in the final minutes of trading, closing only slightly higher Monday following news reports that the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the office of Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump s personal lawyer. Earlier, all the main indices were trading sharply higher, as comments from Trump and administration officials alleviated fears about rising trade hostilities between the U.S. and China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average which at its session high was up as much as 440 points, closed up points, or 0.2 percent, at 23, The S&P 500 added 8.69 points to 2,613.16, a gain of 0.3 percent. The NASDAQ Composite Index rose points, or 0.5 percent, to 6, , (+0.20%) Day High: 24, Day Low: Shortly before the market close, the New York Times reported that the FBI seized documents from Michael Cohen s office, some of which are related to payments to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels. Markets immediately sold off. However, earlier, markets were higher thanks to signs that Trump may have softened his approach in a trade spat with China lifted appetite for global equities across the board. Optimism rose over the weekend after Trump alluded to hopes that an agreement could be reached between the two nations on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property, he tweeted.

2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK S&P HOURLY The late selloff in U.S. equities has probably confirmed that the last leg of the triangle pattern mentioned in previously is in place. If so, we are staring at an imminent breakout fall in the S&P 500 index. Technically, the surge to the overnight high at possibly marked the tip of wave E of (X) in the triangle and the selloff from there appeared impulsive which give rise to the idea that perhaps the peak of the 5-wave triangle may be finally in place. In a typical triangle pattern, the end of the E leg is followed by a sharp and aggressive breakout move. In the case of the S&P 500 index, this breakout is likely to the downside. A potential target is the equality measurement of to from at As noted previously, the key to this anticipated fall is the February 9 swing low at A break below this low would invalidate the medium-term bullish bias and confirms the bearish outlook. But a word of caution here. As noted, this fall could be the terminal leg of the entire decline from the year s high. If the wave count is correct, the end of this extended fall could see a massive reversal. So, be careful about chasing this market ever lower; especially below It could be a bear trap.

3 S&P 500 HOURLY Previously, it was mentioned that the S&P 500 index price actions suggested that this market is probably unfolding as a triangle pattern and that this pattern is missing one last leg up to form the E of (X) leg prior to an aggressive decline that is called the post triangle thrust. Based on last night s late selloff from , it is very probable that a breakout to the downside is now locked and loaded and about to be sprung. A fall through would signal the resumption of the fall from For potential targets, refer to the 4-hourly analysis above.

4 COMEX JUNE GOLD 1, Gold Rose Despite Signs of Easing Trade Tensions (+0.30%) Day High: 1, Day Low: 1, Gold prices traded a touch higher overnight, shrugging off the return of demand for riskier assets as the prospect of a U.S.-China trade war eased. Gold futures for June delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $3.90, or 0.30 percent, to $1,340.00/oz. U.S. officials downplayed the prospect of a trade war with China, appearing somewhat optimistic that the current trade dispute between the world s largest two economies would be resolved through negotiations and not result in a trade war (+1.00%) Day High: Day Low: Easing trade-war fears, reduced demand for safe-haven gold but that was partly offset by a rise in geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to make a decision on how to proceed in Syria within the coming days amid an alleged chemicalweapons attack in Syria. The positive start to the week for the precious metal comes despite a report showing traders cut their bullish bets on gold last week for the first time in three weeks. Dollar weakness, following a sharp rise in the Canadian dollar on signs of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiation progress, also lent support to gold prices. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the U.S. Dollar a fall in the Dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency, raising demand for the precious metal. Over the weekend, the U.S. CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that money managers reduced their net long positions in gold futures to 166,000 lots from 203,400 lots for the week ended April 6. In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 1.00% to $16.53/oz.

5 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD 4-HOURLY As mentioned previously, gold is probably unfolding as a triangle pattern. Seen in this light, the recent gyrations on gold is likely to continue for a while more in the foreseeable future. As noted in previous updates, the pullback from $ is probably still unfolding and going forward, there may be a little more upside to the rebound from $ but below the recent swing high at $ should cap. A turndown next to take out $ may be followed by a sharp rally attempt to test the $ high. Failure to clear that high may see yet another decline the downside. All in all, gold is likely to swing wildly before bursting to the upside in a post-triangle thrust in a move very similar to what is about to happen in U.S. equities but in the opposite direction.

6 GOLD HOURLY In the hourly time frame, the internal structure of the triangle pattern can be better appreciated. The rebound from $ is likely to extend higher in a double zig-zag move. From somewhere in between $ $ , this rise may peak and a sharp pullback is anticipated. As noted, gold is likely to swing wildly within this triangle pattern and the next installment is likely to see a retest of the recent swing low at $ It is likely that this low may be taken out briefly, only to be followed by yet another rally attempt. If so, such a fall may dip into the demand zone at $ $ Buying interests from within this area may then attempt to take gold back to re-test the swing high at $ to form the D leg of this triangle pattern (see 4-hourly time frame analysis).

7 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Daniel Ang, an active trader and have held senior positions in some of the most prominent multi-exchanges futures brokers based in Singapore and the region such as Standard Chartered Futures (which was later merged with the public listed Man Financial Group of the UK) and FIMAT Asia, the brokerage arm of the French Societe Generale Group. He has also help to set up a FX brokerage in Dubai and then back to Asia with a Chicago FCM based in Hong Kong as an IB. It was in this role that he first became a speaker when he was part of the entourage with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange s Asia Marketing team touring the Greater China region. Over the last thirty years, he has witnessed every major financial crisis from Black Monday in 1987 to the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein in 1990 to the collapse of Barings Banks in 1995 to the Asia Financial Crisis in 1997 and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, he has seen them all. Over the years, his speaking assignments, coaching clinics and workshops have taken him all over Asia but for the most part, he is still an active trader till now. His belief is Fear not as each financial crisis brings along with it unique money-making opportunities provided we understand what is happening and how to position ourselves to take advantage of the numerous opportunities presented by events beyond our control.