Metropolitan Transportation Commission

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1 Metropolitan Transportation Commission Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA Meeting Agenda Planning Committee MTC Committe Members: James P. Spering, Chair Anne W Halsted, Vice Chair Friday, February 10, 2017 Alicia C. Aguirre, Damon Connolly, Scott Haggerty, Sam Liccardo, Julie Pierce Non-Voting Members: Tom Azumbrado, Dorene M. Giacopini 9:30 AM Board Room - 1st Floor This meeting is scheduled to be webcast live on the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's Web site: and will take place at 9:40 a.m. 1. Roll Call / Confirm Quorum 2. Pledge of Allegiance Quorum: A quorum of this committee shall be a majority of its regular voting members (4). 3. Compensation Announcement - Committee Secretary 4. Consent Calendar 4a Action: Attachments: Minutes of the January 13, 2017 Meeting Committee Approval 4a_PLNG Minutes_Jan 2017.pdf Page 1 Printed on 2/3/2017

2 Planning Committee Meeting Agenda February 10, Information 5a Action: Presenter: Attachments: Vital Signs Update - Winter 2017 Overview of the latest regional land use and economic performance trends, as well as new performance indicators related to social equity. Information Dave Vautin and Stephanie Mak 5a_Vital Signs Update Winter 2017.pdf 6. Public Comment / Other Business 7. Adjournment / Next Meeting The next meeting of the Joint MTC Planning Committee with the ABAG Administrative Committee will be March 10, 2017, 9:30 a.m. at the Bay Area Metro Center, 375 Beale Street, San Francisco, CA. Page 2 Printed on 2/3/2017

3 Planning Committee Meeting Agenda February 10, 2017 Public Comment: The public is encouraged to comment on agenda items at Committee meetings by completing a request-to-speak card (available from staff) and passing it to the Committee secretary. Public comment may be limited by any of the procedures set forth in Section 3.09 of MTC's Procedures Manual (Resolution No. 1058, Revised) if, in the chair's judgment, it is necessary to maintain the orderly flow of business. Meeting Conduct: If this meeting is willfully interrupted or disrupted by one or more persons rendering orderly conduct of the meeting unfeasible, the Chair may order the removal of individuals who are willfully disrupting the meeting. Such individuals may be arrested. If order cannot be restored by such removal, the members of the Committee may direct that the meeting room be cleared (except for representatives of the press or other news media not participating in the disturbance), and the session may continue. Record of Meeting: Committee meetings are recorded. Copies of recordings are available at a nominal charge, or recordings may be listened to at MTC offices by appointment. Audiocasts are maintained on MTC's Web site (mtc.ca.gov) for public review for at least one year. Accessibility and Title VI: MTC provides services/accommodations upon request to persons with disabilities and individuals who are limited-english proficient who wish to address Commission matters. For accommodations or translations assistance, please call or for TDD/TTY. We require three working days' notice to accommodate your request. Acceso y el Titulo VI: La MTC puede proveer asistencia/facilitar la comunicación a las personas discapacitadas y los individuos con conocimiento limitado del inglés quienes quieran dirigirse a la Comisión. Para solicitar asistencia, por favor llame al número o al para TDD/TTY. Requerimos que solicite asistencia con tres días hábiles de anticipación para poderle proveer asistencia. Attachments are sent to Committee members, key staff and others as appropriate. Copies will be available at the meeting. All items on the agenda are subject to action and/or change by the Committee. Actions recommended by staff are subject to change by the Committee. MTC's Chair and Vice-Chair are ex-officio voting members of all standing Committees. Page 3 Printed on 2/3/2017

4 Metropolitan Transportation Commission 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA Legislation Details (With Text) File #: Version: 1 Name: Type: Minutes Status: Consent File created: On agenda: Title: Sponsors: Indexes: Code sections: Attachments: 1/4/2017 In control: Planning Committee 2/10/2017 Final action: Minutes of the January 13, 2017 Meeting 4a_PLNG Minutes_Jan 2017.pdf Date Ver. Action By Action Result Subject: Minutes of the January 13, 2017 Meeting Recommended Action: Committee Approval Attachments Metropolitan Transportation Commission Page 1 of 1 Printed on 2/3/2017 powered by Legistar

5 Metropolitan Transportation Commission Meeting Minutes - Draft Agenda Item 4a Bay Area Metro Center 375 Beale Street San Francisco, CA Planning Committee MTC Committee Members: James P. Spering, Chair Anne W. Halsted, Vice Chair Alicia C. Aguirre, Scott Haggerty, Sam Liccardo, Julie Pierce, Vacant Non-Voting Members: Tom Azumbrado, Dorene M. Giacopini Friday, January 13, :30 AM Board Room - 1st Floor 1. Roll Call / Confirm Quorum Present: 4 - Absent: 4 - Commissioner Haggerty, Commissioner Pierce, Commission Vice Chair Mackenzie, and Commission Chair Cortese Commissioner Aguirre, Vice Chair Halsted, Commissioner Liccardo, and Chair Spering Non-Voting Members Present: Commissioner Azumbrado and Commissioner Giacopini Ex Officio Voting Members Present: Commission Chair Cortese and Commission Vice Chair Mackenzie Ad Hoc Non-Voting Member Present: Commissioner Worth Commission Chair Cortese and Commission Vice Chair Mackenzie were deputized to act as voting members of the Committee. 2. Pledge of Allegiance 3. Compensation Announcement - Committee Secretary 4. Consent Calendar Approval of the Consent Calendar Present: 4 - Absent: 3 - Upon the motion by Commission Vice Chair Mackenzie and second by Commissioner Haggerty, the Consent Calendar was unanimously approved by the following vote: Commissioner Haggerty, Commissioner Pierce, Commission Vice Chair Mackenzie, and Commission Chair Cortese Vice Chair Halsted, Commissioner Liccardo, and Chair Spering 4a Minutes of the December 9, 2016 Meeting Action: Committee Approval Page 1 Printed on 1/17/2017

6 Planning Committee Meeting Minutes - Draft Agenda Item 4a January 13, Information 5a Update: Plan Bay Area 2040 Public Engagement - Release of Draft Plan, Spring 2017 Action: Presenter: Outline of plans for public open houses and other public comment opportunities timed to coincide with release of the Draft Plan Bay Area 2040 document and companion Draft Environmental Impact Report slated for spring Information Ellen Griffin Pat Eklund, ABAG Executive Board and Cities of Marin and Novato was called to speak. Scott Lane was called to speak. 6. Public Comment / Other Business The following individuals spoke on this item: Edward Mason; Ozzie Rom; Roland Lebrun; and Scott Lane. 7. Adjournment / Next Meeting The next meeting of the Planning Committee will be February 10, 2016, 9:40 a.m. at the Bay Area Metro Center, 375 Beale Street, San Francisco, CA Page 2 Printed on 1/17/2017

7 Metropolitan Transportation Commission 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA Legislation Details (With Text) File #: Version: 1 Name: Type: Report Status: Informational File created: On agenda: 11/30/2016 In control: Planning Committee 2/10/2017 Title: Vital Signs Update - Winter 2017 Final action: Sponsors: Indexes: Code sections: Attachments: Overview of the latest regional land use and economic performance trends, as well as new performance indicators related to social equity. 5a_Vital Signs Update Winter 2017.pdf Date Ver. Action By Action Result Subject: Vital Signs Update - Winter 2017 Overview of the latest regional land use and economic performance trends, as well as new performance indicators related to social equity. Presenter: Dave Vautin and Stephanie Mak Recommended Action: Information Attachments Metropolitan Transportation Commission Page 1 of 1 Printed on 2/3/2017 powered by Legistar

8 Agenda Item 5a TO: Planning Committee DATE: February 3, 2017 FR: Executive Director RE: Vital Signs Update Winter 2017 The Vital Signs performance monitoring initiative was a key implementation action of the original Plan Bay Area in 2013, allowing residents to track trends related to transportation, land & people, the economy, and the environment. To date, over 55,000 Bay Area residents ranging from elected officials and public agency staff to members of the public and policy advocates have used Vital Signs to learn more about their communities and their region ( Managed by MTC, Vital Signs involves close cooperation with other project partners including the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD), and the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC). Over the course of this fiscal year, staff is going through the process of comprehensively updating existing indicators with the latest data to ensure the website remains a timely and robust resource for users. Since October 2016, updated data for the following indicators have been released: Land and People: Population, Jobs, Housing Growth, Greenfield Development* Economy: Jobs by Industry, Unemployment, Income, Home Prices, Rent Payments, List Rents, Economic Output, Airport Activity, Seaport Activity Equity (new to Vital Signs): Jobs by Wage Level*, Housing Affordability*, Migration*, Poverty*, Life Expectancy* An asterisk (*) indicates that the release for the indicator is pending and that data will be available publicly later this winter. As noted above, staff has added a new suite of Equity indicators in response to requests by the Policy Advisory Council over the past few years. We anticipate that these indicators will provide an improved lens on social equity in our performance monitoring work. Combined, these three data releases provide a snapshot of the Bay Area today with regards to key economic, equity, and land use issues. As such, staff is bringing forward some key findings from the analysis. As always, much more detail can be found on the Vital Signs website, especially for localized performance trends on the county, city, and neighborhood levels. Key Findings 1. Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Bay Area employment exceeded the region s historic year 2000 peak, thanks to strong growth in professional business, educational, and health services industries. In turn, the region s population has continued to increase, remaining on track to exceed 8 million by As population and jobs have grown, economic output has expanded at a rate faster than either indicator, rising by nearly six percent in 2015 alone. While the region faced significant unemployment challenges in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the latest data indicates an annual rate of around 4 percent, generally considered by economists to be a natural level of unemployment. Still, despite these trends, significant differences exist across the region, with very strong economic conditions in both Silicon Valley and San Francisco and a much more modest growth trend in the North Bay.

9 Planning Committee February 3, 2017 Page2 Agenda Item 5a 2. Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Between 2013 and 2015, cities in the Bay Area have permitted roughly 20,000 housing each year, roughly one-third fewer units annually than past expansionary periods in the 1990s and 2000s. In the 1970s and 1980s - a time when the region was considered much more affordable than in recent years - cities regularly approved two or three times more permits each year than today. This slowdown in housing development is occurring despite the fact that Bay Area housing prices - in real terms - have doubled in the past two decades and that regional home prices and rents are the most expensive in the United States. Inadequate housing.remains the Achilles heel of an otherwise vibrant region. 3. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. After years of stagnation, inflation-adjusted income levels have finally begun to rise in the Bay Area; this trend stands in contrast to much of the rest of the country, where income has fallen over time. Still, income growth trends have skewed in favor of the more affluent, with households earning more than the median income seeing the most rapid growth in their paychecks. This may be due to the rapid rise in high-wage jobs in recent years. 4. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region - either voluntarily or involuntarily. While the Bay Area continues to attract new residents - especially from Southern California and from abroad - thousands of existing residents are relocating to lower-cost metro areas to the east. In 2014 alone, there was a net out-migration of over 16,000 people to the Central Valley and the Sacramento metro area. While some of them have undoubtedly found new employment closer to their new homes, others continue to commute into the Bay Area due to our employers' comparatively high salaries. 5. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic recovery of any major metro area in the United States. The Bay Area ranks #1 for job growth since 2010, surpassing traditional high-growth Sunbelt metro areas. In terms of per-capita economic output, our region has pulled away from the pack since the Great Recession, annually producing $14,000 more in economic value per resident than the next most-productive metro area (Washington, DC). Next Steps Staff will return to the committee to present findings on transportation and the environment later this year. Upcoming data releases for this calendar year are shown on the following page: Vital Signs: Equity Release - winter 2017 Vital Signs: Transportation Release - spring 2017 Vital Signs: Environment Release - summer 2017 In 2018 and beyond, we look forward to continuing to improve Vital Signs as a tool for the public, policymakers, and planners across the region. This may include greater integration with the nextgeneration long-range plan, using Vital Signs data as a foundation for future target-setting efforts. Attachment: PowerPoint Presentation SH:dv J:\COMMITTE\ Planning Committee\201 7\02_ PLNG_ Feb 201 7\Sa_ Vital Signs - Winter Update_v2.docx s~

10 WINTER 2017 UPDATE PLANNING COMMITTEE DAVE VAUTIN & STEPHANIE MAK Source: MTC ABAG BAAQMD BCDC 1

11 WHAT IS VITAL SIGNS? Vital Signs is a cross-agency performance monitoring initiative, allowing residents to track trends using an interactive website. 18 indicators have been updated this fall & this winter with the latest data. vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov 2

12 WHAT IS VITAL SIGNS? Vital Signs is a cross-agency performance monitoring initiative, allowing residents to track trends using an interactive website. 18 indicators have been updated this fall & this winter with the latest data. 3

13 KEY FINDINGS LAND & PEOPLE, ECONOMY, AND EQUITY 1 Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region either voluntarily or involuntarily. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic growth of any major metro area in the United States. 4

14 JOBS REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Job levels now exceed the year 2000 peak. 3.9 REGIONAL JOBS Jobs in Millions US Recession 3.7 M US Recession US Recession Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD) 5

15 JOB CREATION % Change in Jobs since % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Job growth has been fastest in the information sector and in service industries. CHANGE IN JOBS BY INDUSTRY SINCE Educational/ Health Services Information Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Mining & Construction Other Trade, Transportation & Logistics Government Farm Financial Manufacturing Source: Employment Development Department 6

16 UNEMPLOYMENT 12.0% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE The Bay Area s unemployment rate has dropped to levels last seen in 2006, before the Great Recession. REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% US Recession US Recession US Recession 4.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Employment Development Department 7

17 ECONOMIC OUTPUT 50% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Moreover, the pace of growth in economic output relative to 2001 has exceeded both job and population growth. % CHANGE SINCE 2001 GRP Population Jobs 40% % Change Since % 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Employment Development Department; Department of Finance Note: GRP is reported at the MSA level; the Bay Area MSAs include the 9-county region and San Benito County. 8

18 KEY FINDINGS LAND & PEOPLE, ECONOMY, AND EQUITY 1 Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region either voluntarily or involuntarily. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic growth of any major metro area in the United States. 9

19 HOUSING GROWTH 70 REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Despite a housing crisis and strong economic growth, permitting still remains well below mid-20 th century levels. PERMITTED UNITS BY YEAR Single-Family Units Multi-Family Units Thousands of Permitted Units K Source: Construction Industry Research Board ( ); California Homebuilding Foundation ( ) 10

20 HOUSING GROWTH LOCAL FOCUS The three counties with booming job markets have permitted more units in the last five years than in the prior decade. AVERAGE ANNUAL HOUSING UNITS PERMITTED BY DECADE 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 3,400 2,000 1, ,300 3,100 4,300 1,200 3, , ,000 7,300 6,100 12,600 ALAMEDA CONTRA COSTA MARIN NAPA SAN FRANCISCO SAN MATEO SANTA CLARA SOLANO SONOMA Source: Construction Industry Research Board ( ); California Homebuilding Foundation ( ) 11

21 HOUSING GROWTH LOCAL FOCUS In 2015, permitting meaningfully accelerated in Alameda, Contra Costa and Solano counties. ANNUAL HOUSING UNITS PERMITTED (SINCE 2010) ,200 5,000 1,100 2, ,000 3, ,500 3,200 4, , ALAMEDA CONTRA COSTA MARIN NAPA SAN FRANCISCO SAN MATEO SANTA CLARA SOLANO SONOMA Source: California Homebuilding Foundation ( ) 12

22 HOME PRICES Median Regional Sale Home Price (in thousands of dollars) $800 $600 $400 $200 REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Due to limited supply, Bay Area home prices have continued to rise but have not yet exceeded the 2006 peak. REGIONAL MEDIAN HOME SALE PRICE Not Inflation-Adjusted (in reporting year dollars) Inflation-Adjusted (in 2015 dollars) $ $708,000 Sources: Zillow; Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

23 LIST RENTS $2,500 REGIONAL PERFORMANCE List rents for newly available units have increased by 75 percent in real terms since BAY AREA MEDIAN LIST RENTS $2,400 Median Regional Monthly List Rent $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Inflation-Adjusted (in 2015 dollars) Not Inflation-Adjusted (in reporting year dollars) $ Q2 Sources: real Answers (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Bureau of Labor Statistics 14

24 KEY FINDINGS LAND & PEOPLE, ECONOMY, AND EQUITY 1 Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region either voluntarily or involuntarily. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic growth of any major metro area in the United States. 15

25 INCOME $100 REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Median household income in the Bay Area has increased post-recession, but median employee income has declined. REGIONAL MEDIAN INCOME AND EARNINGS Median Income and Earnings (in thousands of 2015 dollars) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $89 K Median Household Income $49 K Median Worker Earnings $30 $20 $10 $ Sources: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Bureau of Labor Statistics 16

26 INCOME LOCAL FOCUS In all counties except Sonoma, the top-income households saw the largest gains in income. HOUSEHOLD INCOME PERCENT CHANGE BY QUINTILE (1970 TO 2015) 20th Percentile 40th Percentile 60th Percentile 80th Percentile 21% 17% 27% 45% 9% 19% 8% 22% 36% 25% 15% 16% 45% 30% 58% 11% 29% 38% 4% 19% 38% 47% 3% 1% 9% 22% 54% 22% 16% 29% 79% 95% ALAMEDA -13% -4% CONTRA COSTA -7% MARIN NAPA SAN SAN MATEO FRANCISCO -4% SANTA CLARA SOLANO SONOMA Sources: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Bureau of Labor Statistics 17

27 JOBS BY WAGE LEVEL 40% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE In part, this trend has been driven by a boom in high-wage jobs, while low- and middle-wage jobs have declined. PERCENT CHANGE IN REGIONAL JOBS BY WAGE LEVEL High-Wage 30% Percent Change in Jobs 20% 10% 0% -10% Overall Middle-Wage Low-Wage -20% Sources: Employment Development Department; Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics/U.S. Census 18

28 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 100% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Housing affordability has declined over time, but the region s economic recovery has resulted in progress since SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON HOUSING 90% 80% 22% At least 35% of Income 36% 31% 70% Share of Households 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 30% 48% 20% to 34% of Income Less than 20% of Income 33% 31% 32% 37% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey 19

29 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Share of Households 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 14% 25% 61% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Homeowners have been able to capitalize the most from these trends benefiting from refinancing, for example. SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON HOUSING - OWNERS At least 35% of Income 24% 32% 20% to 34% of Income Less than 20% of Income 32% 36% 30% 46% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey 20

30 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY 100% REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Unfortunately, renter households have not seen any substantial improvement in affordability over this period. SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON HOUSING - RENTERS 90% 80% 32% At least 35% of Income 42% 40% 70% Share of Households 60% 50% 40% 30% 35% 20% to 34% of Income 34% 34% 20% 10% 34% Less than 20% of Income 24% 26% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey 21

31 KEY FINDINGS LAND & PEOPLE, ECONOMY, AND EQUITY 1 Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region either voluntarily or involuntarily. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic growth of any major metro area in the United States. 22

32 MIGRATION REGIONAL PERFORMANCE Annually, nearly 17,000 more people choose to leave the Bay Area than move into it before accounting for immigration. All Other California Counties: Sacramento Region: -6,600 people -7,200 people Other States: -1,600 people Significant migration from Asia, Europe, and other locations abroad San Joaquin Valley: -7,200 people Central Valley: -2,200 people 2014 Net Migration Bay Area Southern California: +7,900 people Sources: American Community Survey/U.S. Census Bureau County-to-County Migration Data; note that data relies upon 5-year rolling averages 23

33 MIGRATION LOCAL FOCUS While all counties are affected by internal migration, the East Bay is seeing the most significant influx NET MIGRATION FLOWS BY SUBREGION SAN FRANCISCO + SILICON VALLEY EAST BAY NORTH BAY North Bay: -3,600 people North Bay: +600 people Out of Region: -5,900 people Out of Region: -9,100 people Out of Region: -1,800 people East Bay: -14,100 people East Bay: -600 people SF + Silicon Valley: +14,100 people SF + Silicon Valley: +3,600 people Sources: American Community Survey/U.S. Census Bureau County-to-County Migration Data; note that data relies upon 5-year rolling averages; immigration from abroad not shown for simplicity24

34 HOME PRICES Median Home Sale Price (in thousands of 2015 dollars) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 LOCAL FOCUS Cost of housing is likely a key factor in this migration pattern job-rich counties have seen a rapid rise in home prices. MEDIAN HOME SALE PRICE BY COUNTY San Francisco San Mateo Marin Santa Clara Alameda Napa Sonoma Contra Costa Solano $ Sources: Zillow (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Bureau of Labor Statistics 25

35 KEY FINDINGS LAND & PEOPLE, ECONOMY, AND EQUITY 1 Job growth has been very robust, driving down unemployment across the Bay Area Housing permitting has stalled in the last few years despite rapidly growing rents and home prices. Rising incomes and mortgage refinancing have mitigated some of the impacts associated with the increasing cost of housing, although these benefits have disproportionately accrued to those at the top of the income spectrum. Due at least in part to the rising cost of living, increasing numbers of Bay Area residents are moving out of the region either voluntarily or involuntarily. The San Francisco Bay Area has arguably seen the most robust economic recovery of any major metro area in the United States. 26

36 JOBS NATIONAL CONTEXT Since 2010, the Bay Area has ranked #1 for job growth % Growth Sources: California Employment Development Department (Bay Area); US Bureau of Labor Statistics (all other metros)

37 ECONOMIC OUTPUT GRP per Capita in Thousands of Dollars $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 NATIONAL CONTEXT In an era of ample venture capital and ongoing government sequestration, the Bay Area and DC metros have diverged. GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA BY METRO AREA Bay Area Washington New York Houston Los Angeles Dallas Philadelphia Chicago Atlanta Miami $ Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (inflation-adjusted to 2015 dollars); Department of Finance; US Census Bureau Note: GRP is reported at the MSA level; the San Jose MSA include Santa Clara County and San Benito County 28

38 UNEMPLOYMENT 12% NATIONAL CONTEXT The Bay Area s unemployment rate has declined faster than those of other large metro regions post-recession. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY METRO AREA (ANNUAL AVERAGE) 10% Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% Los Angeles Chicago Atlanta Miami New York Philadelphia Houston Washington Bay Area Dallas 0% Sources: Employment Development Department (Bay Area); Bureau of Labor Statistics (all other metros) 29

39 POVERTY Share of Population Living in Poverty 39% NATIONAL CONTEXT Today, the Bay Area has one of the lowest poverty rates among large metro areas. 36% 2015 POVERTY RATE BY METRO AREA 33% 32% 32% 30% 30% 27% 24% 20% MIAMI LOS ANGELES HOUSTON ATLANTA DALLAS CHICAGO NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA BAY AREA WASHINGTON Source: U.S. Census Bureau/American Community Survey, 2015 Note: poverty is defined as living below twice the national poverty level 30

40 WHAT S NEXT? TODAY LAND & PEOPLE + ECONOMY UPDATED DATA AVAILABLE WINTER EQUITY RELEASE SPRING TRANSPORTATION DATA UPDATE SUMMER ENVIRONMENT DATA UPDATE MTC ABAG BAAQMD BCDC Source: 31