Weekly Commentary 02 May 2014

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1 Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury or Business Banking Treasury Institutional Treasury Specialised Finance +353 (0) UK Sales Team (within the UK) US Sales Team Keep in touch with the markets, visit Weekly Commentary 02 May 2014 Themes from the week Sterling rises to 5-year high against the dollar Headlines for the week ahead ECB & BOE meetings; Fed Chair testifies on economic outlook Fed tapers again Notwithstanding a slowdown in US economic growth in Q1 GDP was essentially flat after increasing by 0.7% in Q4 the Fed announced a further tapering of asset purchases following the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. It reduced purchases by $10bn to $45bn a month and reiterated that it is likely to continue tapering in measured steps at future meetings. The pace of purchases has now been almost halved since December, leaving the Fed on track to end asset purchases before the end of this year. The Fed said economic activity has picked up again recently, having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions, and judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in labour market conditions (hence the decision to continue tapering). It also reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain at the current level for a considerable time after asset purchases end. Friday s payrolls showed employment rose by a larger than expected 288k in April while the unemployment rate fell by more than forecast, to 6.3% from 6.7% in March. Following a surprise fall to 0.5% in March, inflation in the Euro area rebounded to 0.7% in April (core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 1% from 0.7%), which probably means the ECB will keep policy on hold at next Thursday s meeting. The June meeting will provide an opportunity for the ECB to re-assess the outlook for inflation in the context of updated staff macroeconomic projections which will be available at that time. The euro strengthened against the dollar after the inflation data but lost ground again following the payrolls report, ending the week largely unchanged at just over $1.38 Sterling was on the front foot for most of the week, rising to a 5-year high against the dollar, helped by positive economic data in the UK. The economy grew at a robust rate again in the first quarter, with GDP increasing by 0.8%, while the manufacturing PMI rose more strongly than expected in April (to 57.3 from 55.8 in March). In Ireland, the unemployment rate fell to 11.7% in April, while the annual rate of growth in core retail sales (ex cars) accelerated to 2.6% in Q1 from 1.1% in the final quarter of 2013 (total retail sales rose by almost 8% year-on-year in Q1). Meanwhile, property prices nationally fell in March prices in Dublin were unchanged but fell outside of Dublin but were still up almost 8% on the same month in Data section contents (changes on the week) Commodities Highlights for the week ahead Prev Fcst Cons Mon EU Commission Forecasts US ISM Non-Manufacturing Tues EA Services PMI UK Services PMI EA Retail Sales 0.4% -0.2% -0.2% US Trade Balance -$42.3bn -$40.4bn -$40.4bn Wed Fed Chair testimony Thurs ECB Meeting 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% IRL Annual CPI Inflation 0.2% BOE MPC Meeting 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% US Jobless Claims 344k Fri UK Industrial Output 0.9% -0.1% -0.1% Spot rates EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/USD EUR/JPY GBP/USD EUR/CAD EUR/SEK EUR/PLN EUR/NOK EUR/ZAR EUR/HUF EUR/CZK year 3 year 5 year 7 year 10 year 15 year 20 year EUR GBP USD Official rates Current Ens-Q2 End-Q3 End-Q4 Fcst Cons Fcst Cons Fcst Cons EUR GBP USD Highlights for the week ahead The ECB and Bank of England hold meetings on Thursday with the market expecting both to again keep policy unchanged. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies to Congress on the economic outlook Michael Crowley Recent research View recently published reports at including: The Bulletin (monthly analysis of international and Irish markets) UK View (monthly analysis of trends in the UK economy) The Outlook (quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy) Irish Property Review (quarterly analysis of Irish property trends) Market Newsflash (up-to-the-minute analysis of key economic developments) All rates quoted are indicative market rates

2 Data section contents Data section showing % changes on the week Long term fixed rates Commodity prices Europe Euro area inflation rebounds in April. After a surprise fall in March, inflation in the Euro area rebounded in April with the headline rate rising to 0.7% from 0.5% and the core rate - excluding food and energy - picking up to 1% from 0.7%. Though inflation clearly remains low it has been broadly stable since the ECB cut interest rates in November, while the economic recovery in the zone has gained some momentum since the start of this year judging by the PMI data. The ECB meets again next Thursday but, given the rebound in inflation last month, is likely to keep policy on hold. The June meeting, meanwhile, will afford the ECB the opportunity to re-assess the outlook for inflation in the context of updated staff macroeconomic projections which will be available at that time. The euro strengthened against the dollar after the inflation data and rose further to over $1.39 following the release of weaker than expected US GDP. However, the single currency gave up most of these gains again after Friday s payrolls report in the US to end the week largely unchanged overall at just over $1.38 Ireland Car sales drive retail spending in Q1 Retail sales rose by 2.6% in Q1, taking the annual increase to almost 8.9%, driven by an increase in car sales. Excluding cars, the volume of sales rose by 0.1%, resulting in a further acceleration in the annual rate of growth to 2.6% from 1.1% in the final quarter of last year (and 0.5% in the corresponding quarter in 2013). Rising consumer confidence and the on-going improvement in the labour market should continue to support spending. In this regard, the latest Live Register data shows the estimated unemployment rate fell further to 11.7% in April, almost two percentage points lower that a year earlier. United Kingdom Economy records another quarter of strong growth The UK recovery has been very robust over the past few quarters and Q1 did not buck that trend. The PMI readings have fallen back from the high levels seen in Q4 although April s Manufacturing PMI reading did rebound to 57.3 from 55.8 in March but the monthly hard data, including retail sales and industrial production, indicated that the pace of growth picked up rather than slowed as suggested by the PMI s. In the event, GDP expanded by 0.8%, up from 0.7% in Q4 but slightly below the consensus forecast of 0.9%.The increase in GDP over the four quarters to Q1 was 3.1%, the strongest annual growth since Q Industrial and services output both rose again in Q1 (by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively), while construction output increased by 0.3% after falling by 0.2% in Q4. Agricultural output unexpectedly fell in the quarter, by 0.7%, and absent that GDP growth may well have hit the 0.9% forecast. Q1 marked the five consecutive quarter of growth, leaving the level of GDP just 0.6% below its pre-recession peak. It is likely that GDP will surpass its previous peak in the current quarter. This will raise further questions about how much slack the BoE sees remaining in the economy. If the economy continues to outperform then we may see a distinct shift in the BoE s stance later on this year, where a tightening of policy will be discussed albeit it s still likely that a first rate increase will not occur until into United States Growth stalls in Q1 but Fed tapers again Growth in the US economy stalled in the first quarter with GDP essentially flat after increasing by 0.7% in Q4. Though consumer spending rose strongly again in Q1, this was almost fully offset by a fall in both investment and net exports while stocks also made a negative contribution to GDP. Notwithstanding a slowdown in growth, the Fed announced a further tapering of asset purchases following the conclusion of its twoday meeting on Wednesday. It reduced purchases by $10bn to $45bn and reiterated that it is likely to continue tapering in measured steps at future meetings. The pace of 2 Bank of Ireland Global Markets

3 Data section contents Data section showing % changes on the week Long term fixed rates Commodity prices purchases has now been almost halved since the end of 2013, leaving the Fed on track to end asset purchases before the end of this year. The Fed noted that economic growth had slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions which explain some of the deceleration in GDP growth in Q1 but said activity has picked up again recently. It also said it believes there is sufficient underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing improvement in labour market conditions, hence the decision to continue tapering. The Fed also reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain at the current level for a considerable time after asset purchases end. Friday s payrolls report showed employment rose by 288k in April, much stronger than the 218k increase the market expected, while the unemployment rate also fell by more than forecast, to 6.3% from 6.7% in March (though this was largely due to a renewed decline in the labour force participation rate). The dollar regained some ground against the euro after the employment data, rising towards $1.38. Japan Bank of Japan keeps policy on hold The Bank of Japan kept policy on hold at this week s meeting as it waits to see what impact the recent increase in the sales tax might have on the economy, though its Governor, Kuroda, said the Bank is prepared to adjust policy without hesitation as needed. The yen has been relatively stable against the dollar recently, trading within a range of about Y101 to Y104 since February. It did lose ground over the week, though, falling to around Y103 from Y102 last week, with most of this decline following Friday s US jobs report. 3 Bank of Ireland Global Markets

4 Data section changes on the week EUR/GBP Spot % 1M 1 3M 4 6M 10 12M 30 EUR/USD Spot % 1M -1 3M -3 6M -4 12M -1 GBP/USD on the week Spot % 1M -4 3M -12 6M M -67 EUR currency pairs EUR/CAD % EUR/AUD % EUR/NZD % EUR/CHF % EUR/JPY % EUR/SEK % EUR/NOK % EUR/HUF % EUR/PLN % EUR/ZAR % EUR/CZK % USD currency pairs USD/CAD % USD/AUD % USD/NZD % USD/CHF % USD/JPY % USD/CNY % USD/MXN % USD/SGD % USD/BRL % USD/THB % USD/ZAR % GBP currency pairs on the week GBP/CAD % GBP/AUD % GBP/NZD % GBP/CHF % GBP/JPY % GBP/SGD % GBP/MYR % GBP/NOK % GBP/HKD % GBP/SEK % GBP/DKK % GBP/ZAR % on the Week Base O'night 1 week 2 week 1 M 2 M 3 M 6 M 9 M 12 M EUR GBP USD on the Week 2 year Chng 5 year Chng 7 year Chng 10 year Chng EUR GBP USD Government bond yields (YTM) on the Week 2 year Chng 5 year Chng 10 year Chng 30 year Chng Ireland Germany US UK Prime Rate Bank of Ireland prime rate 0.72 on the Week ISEQ % DOW Jones % S&P % SMI % Nasdaq % FTSE % Eurostoxx % Nikkei % Commodities on the Week Brent % WTI Cushing % Gold % Wheat % Emissions Allowance % 4 Bank of Ireland Global Markets

5 Contacts Economic Research Unit (ERU) To discuss any aspect of this report, contact your treasury specialist or our Economic Research Unit (ERU): Senior Economist: Michael Crowley Tel: +353 (0) Economist: Patrick Mullane Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury or Business Banking Treasury Institutional Treasury Specialised Finance +353 (0) UK Sales Team (within the UK) US Sales Team Our Offices Dublin 2 Burlington Plaza, Burlington Road, Dublin 4, Ireland Tel +353 (0) London Bow Bells House, 1 Bread Street, London EC4P 4BP, UK Tel +44 (0) Belfast 1 Donegall Square South, Belfast, BT1 5LR, UK Tel +44 (0) Stamford (US) 300 First Stamford Place, Stamford CT 06902, US Tel Keep in touch with the markets, visit Market data supplied by Thomson Reuters Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Global Markets UK ( GM ) for information purposes only and GM is not soliciting any action based upon it. GM believes any information contained herein to be accurate but GM does not warrant its accuracy and accepts no responsibility, other than any responsibility it may owe to any party under the European Communities (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2007 as may be amended from time to time, and under the Financial Conduct Authority rules (where the client is resident in the UK), for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission taken as a result of the information contained in this document. No prices or rates mentioned are bids or offers by GM to purchase or sell any currencies, securities or financial instruments. Except as otherwise may be specifically agreed, GM has not acted nor will act as a fiduciary, financial or investment adviser with respect to any currency or derivative transaction that it has executed or will execute. Any decision made by a party after reading this document shall be on the basis of its own research and not be influenced or based on any view expressed by GM. This document does not address all risks. Any party should obtain independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Any expressions of opinion reflect current opinions as at 02 May This publication is based on information available before this date. This document is property of GM. The content may not be reproduced, either in whole or in part, without the express written consent of a suitably authorised member of GM staff. Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Bank of Ireland is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. Bank of Ireland incorporated in Ireland with limited liability. Registered Office - Head Office, 40 Mespil Road, Dublin 4, Ireland.Registered Number - C-1. Bank of Ireland Global Markets