UK Outlook. Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty. July Economic Research Unit

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1 UK Outlook July Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty While it has been a game of two halves for the UK economy over the first six months of - poor weather dampening activity in the first quarter but brighter skies, the Royal Wedding celebrations and the World Cup providing a boost in the second - the underlying picture is one of moderate growth. It is still unclear whether a Brexit withdrawal agreement can be successfully concluded in line with the autumn timetable - the government s White Paper on the future relationship with the EU has at least helped to move the talks on after a period of inaction - but assuming there is a transition period that maintains current trading arrangements, the outlook is for more of the same. We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% this year (revised down a touch from 1.7%) and 1.6% in 19 (unchanged). The prospects for consumer spending are a little better at the current juncture. With stronger momentum in the labour market, earnings growth firming and inflation slightly lower, some welcome support is in store for household incomes. While there are trade tensions, the global economic expansion should underpin exports and business investment; though the boost to the former from sterling s past fall will fade while uncertainty will remain a drag on the latter. The Bank of England has sat on its hands since raising interest rates last November but we expect a quarter point hike in August. And although sterling has been relatively stable against the euro in to date, as the prospect of rate increases has offset Brexit concerns, it will be sensitive to developments in the negotiations. Economic Research Unit

2 Economic Overview Recent Developments GDP 1.% YoY Q1 Continued job gains in tight range 86p - 89p January - July YoY June Brexit June March Referendum on EU membership Article 5 triggered July White Paper on future relationship Free trade area in goods and agri-food June Withdrawal negotiations begin December Progress on Phase 1 issues New arrangement for financial and other services March June Transition agreed in principle European Council meeting End to free movement Outlook Labour market momentum and easing inflation helps consumer spending Uncertainty a drag for business investment GDP Consumer Spending Investment Exports Employment Unemployment Rate Inflation 1.7% 1.8% 3.% 5.% 1.%.%.7% Global growth supports exports as past exchange rate boost wanes f 1.5% 1.%.% 3.% 1.1%.1%.5% Gradual interest rate increases a mild headwind 19f 1.6% 1.%.%.8%.7%.%.% Sources: Bank of Ireland, ONS, Bloomberg, HM Government, EU Council

3 Consumer Spending firmer 6 3 Retail sales growth picked up to.8% year-on-year in Q boosted by the good weather, the Royal Wedding celebrations and the World Cup. 15 Retail Sales (annual % change, volume) Households less downbeat Consumer confidence has gained a little ground since the end of last year as job gains have continued and inflation has eased Consumer Confidence (net balance) Source: GfK Healthy jobs market Employment rose by 1.% year-on-year in the three months to May and the unemployment rate stood at.%, its lowest level since Employment (annual % change, 3-month moving average) Incomes squeeze easing With the labour market strengthening, earnings growth (excluding bonus payments) is firming and has been running ahead of inflation lately, reducing the pressure on household incomes Real Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses (annual % change, 3-month moving average) Softer credit growth 1 Consumer credit was up 8.5% year-on-year in May, but growth is moderating as lending standards tighten. Bank of England rate hikes will be also be at play in the period ahead Stock of Unsecured Lending to Households (annual % change) Source: Bank of England Outlook a little better The picture has brightened a bit for consumer spending though growth is still expected to be modest at 1.% this year and 1.% next year. 1.8% 1.% 1.% f 19f Consumer Spending (annual % change, constant prices) & Bank of Ireland

4 Business Brexit headwind 8 Business investment grew by.% year-on-year in Q1. While financing conditions and the expanding global economy are providing support, Brexit uncertainty is weighing Business Investment (annual % change, constant prices) Exports lose steam 15 After a good performance in, annual export growth dipped to.% in the first quarter of this year as demand softened a touch in some trading partners and the past exchange rate boost starts to fade Exports ( bn, constant prices) Global economy still supportive The IMF is forecasting solid global growth of 3.9% this year and next. But with the US raising tariffs and other countries retaliating in kind, increased protectionism is a risk. 1 3 Global GDP (annual % change, constant prices) Source: IMF f 19f Investment intentions holding up 1 Investment intensions in the first half of ticked up among manufacturing firms, but were broadly flat for services. Plans include expanding export capacity and increasing automation in response to rising labour costs. 15 Investment Intentions Next 1 Months Manufacturing Services (net balance) Source: Bank of England Housing investment slowing 3 15 Private investment in dwellings increased by 8.% year-onyear in Q1, though some leading indicators (e.g. housing starts) suggest there may be a slowing ahead Housing Starts (annual % change) Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government Moderate growth 3.%.%.% Continued, albeit more moderate, growth is forecast for both exports and investment this year and also for % 3.% f Investment Exports (annual % change, constant prices) & Bank of Ireland.8% 19f

5 Policy & Markets Inflation off recent highs The annual rate of consumer price inflation has eased as the impact of sterling s past depreciation wanes, but at.% in June it was still above the % target CPI (annual % change) BoE Target Rate (%) & Bank of England BOE points to hikes While the Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold in June the 3 dissenters favoured an immediate 5bps hike it said that gradual, limited increases lie ahead..5. Current Q3 Q Q1 Q 19 Bank Rate (%) Market Expectations Source: Bank of England & Bloomberg Q3 Q Sterling steadier treading water 1..9 After fluctuating between 83p and 93p against the euro in, sterling has been trading in a range of 86p to 89p this year as the prospect of rate increases offsets Brexit woes / Source: Thomson Reuters Government updates Brexit Plan 1 8 The withdrawal talks had largely stalled since March, with the Irish border backstop a sticking point, but they are moving on again following the publication of the White Paper on the future relationship. 15 Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis Northern Ireland Mixed performance The Composite Economic Index shows that output has been broadly flat recently, but strong job gains have contributed to a fall in the unemployment rate over the past year Composite Economic Index (15=1, LHS) Unemployment Rate (%, RHS) Source: NISRA & ONS 6 Consumer confidence improving The absence of an Executive which remains suspended has weighed on business and consumer sentiment, though households have been more upbeat about their finances and job security lately. 13 Consumer Confidence (8 Q3 = 1) Source: Danske Bank 1 Q Q1

6 Forecasts (f) 19 (f) Personal Consumption 1.8% 1.% 1.% Government Consumption -.1% 1.1% 1.1% Investment 3.%.%.% Exports 5.% 3.%.8% Imports 3.%.%.5% GDP 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% Employment 1.% 1.1%.7% Unemployment Rate (Average).%.1%.% CPI.7%.5%.% Annual % change unless otherwise stated; personal consumption, government consumption, investment, exports, imports and GDP are in constant prices Upcoming Events 1 th GDP Jun & Q National Accounts BOE Meeting & Inflation Report 1 th Labour Market Data Q nd GDP Jul 1 th 1 th August September Jun-Aug October 15 th Inflation Jul 11 th th Labour Market Data May-Jul 13 th BOE Meeting 19 th th Inflation Aug Labour Market Data th Inflation Sep GDP Aug European Council Meeting Contact Us economics@boi.com Conn Creedon Senior Economist +353 () Alan Bridle UK Economist & Market Analyst Dr. Loretta O Sullivan Group Chief Economist +353 () Michael Crowley Senior Economist Andrew Hopkins Economist Natalie Tennyson Media Relations Manager +353 () () () Disclaimer This document has been prepared by the Economic Research Unit at The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland ( BOI ) for information purposes only and BOI is not soliciting any action based upon it. BOI believes the information contained herein to be accurate but does not warrant its accuracy nor accepts or assumes any responsibility or liability for such information other than any responsibility it may owe to any party under the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations as may be amended from time to time, and under the Financial Conduct Authority rules (where the client is resident in the UK), for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission taken as a result of the information contained in this document. Any decision made by a party after reading this document shall be on the basis of its own research and not be influenced or based on any view or opinion expressed by BOI either in this document or otherwise. This document does not address all risks and cannot be relied on for any investment contract or decision. A party should obtain independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Expressions of opinion contained in this document reflect current opinion as at 6th July and is based on information available to BOI before that date. This document is the property of BOI and its contents may not be reproduced, either in whole or in part, without the express written consent of a suitably authorised member of BOI. The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland is incorporated in Ireland with limited liability. Registered Office Mespil Road, Dublin, Ireland. Registered Number C1.