Recovery falters in first half of year
|
|
- Emery Dorsey
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2012 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Recovery falters in first half of year Group Chief Economist: Dan McLaughlin Domestic demand still falling, as is employment Irish GDP Page 2 Flat second quarter following fall in Q1 GNP surprises to upside Inflation Page 4 Irish GDP in the second quarter was 2.6% above the cycle low recorded in late 2009 but the recovery remains slow, uneven, (growth was flat in Q2 following a 0.7% contraction in the first quarter) and solely dependent on exports as domestic demand is still falling. The composition of that export growth is changing, with service exports now accounting for half of Ireland s total exports, but the export-led expansion has not been strong enough to generate employment growth and the recent stability in the unemployment rate reflects falls in the labour force, largely due to net emigration. The second quarter GDP data was dampened by an unusually large plunge in the volatile capital spending component, which may well be reversed in the coming quarters but consumer spending is still on a downward trend and we now expect a 2.2% fall in that component this year. As a result we have revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 0.8% from 1%, with both exports and imports also projected to be weaker than initially projected. We had forecast a 1.5% expansion for 2013 and are still inclined to retain this projection, although the economy s dependence on exports means that the risks are clearly on the downside given the uncertain global environment, notably in the euro zone. Domestic demand is expected to fall again, albeit modestly, given the prospect of another deflationary Budget. Some analysts had pinned hopes of a recovery in consumer spending on a fall in the Irish savings ratio from elevated levels but it now transpires that the savings ratio has already fallen sharply. Consequently, we expect another decline in consumer spending next year, by 1%. Employment may finally stabilise next year but the unemployment rate is likely to stay around the current elevated levels. HICP inflation rises to euro average The Labour Market Page 5 Immigration now seen as much stronger during boom Exchequer Finance Page 6 Budget ahead of target despite weaker growth Funding the Exchequer Deficit Page 7 Ireland builds cash balances Contact Us Page 8 The recent data did contain some upside surprises; the economy ran a record surplus with the rest of the world in the second quarter and strong income flows from Irish assets abroad helped to generate a significant rise in GNP. Consequently, we now expect the latter to rise by 1.6% this year and 1% in The 2012 Budget is also likely to match or better the fiscal target (nontax revenue has already reached the full-year forecast) and the chances of Ireland funding in the markets in a sustainable manner have risen, although the scale of the deficit makes the debt dynamics vulnerable to any further disappointment in terms of economic growth.
2 Irish GDP Flat second quarter following fall in Q1 Service exports main support for GDP All of the spending components of real seasonally adjusted Irish GDP fell in the second quarter, led by a 29% plunge in capital spending, a 3.9% decline in government consumption and a 0.4% fall in personal consumption. Imports, too, fell heavily (by 5.2%) as a consequence of the fall in domestic demand and this prevented an overall fall in GDP, as exports declined by 0.5%, so generating a net positive contribution from the external sector resulting in a flat GDP reading in the quarter. This followed a revised 0.7% contraction in Q1, which alongside other revisions to last year s quarterly pattern left the annual change in real GDP in negative territory, at - 1.1%, but against a positive 2.1% expansion in the first quarter, resulting in annual average growth of 0.5% over the first half of the year and as such broadly in line with the consensus for the full year. The adverse international environment appears to be taking a toll on Irish merchandise exports as they fell by an annual 4.4% in the second quarter, although industry specific factors were also at work in the pharmaceutical sector, with a number of drugs going off patent. The export of services has surged, however, rising an annual 9% in volume terms following an 11.8% increase in Q1, driven by computer and business services. Indeed, the value of Irish service exports exceeded that of merchandise in Q2, highlighting that the emphasis on the trend in the latter in much of the commentary on Irish trade can be misleading, albeit understandable as there is no monthly data on service exports. Nevertheless, we are revising down our export forecast for 2012, with a 4% volume increase now expected, although the GDP contribution from the external sector is now forecast to be more significant as we are also revising down our imports forecast, to just 1.5% growth, given the weakness in the data of late. consumer spending and overall domestic demand still falling Domestic demand may also be weaker than we initially expected, however, particularly in terms of consumer spending. The Q2 data left that component 2.5% below the corresponding quarter last year and brought the cumulative fall since the peak of the cycle in late 2007 to over 10%. We now expect personal consumption in 2012 to fall by 2.2%, with a fall in employment offsetting a modest increase in average earnings to leave total wage income down on the previous year. Transfers to the household sector are also expected to fall while taxes are forecast to increase. Consequently, the trend in disposable income still points to falling consumer outlays and the latest data revisions from the CSO show that the net savings rate has actually fallen sharply in the last two years, to 5.4%, in 2011, so there is less scope for a consumption recovery from that source. Government consumption is forecast to fall by 4.5% given the trend over the first half of the year and we now expect capital spending to fall this year, against our previous expectation of a marginal increase. Business spending on machinery and equipment may indeed increase but by less than previously forecast so no longer offsetting the expected decline in construction spending. GDP growth revised down but GNP revised up record BoP surplus in Q2... The net result is that GDP growth this year is now expected to be a little weaker than the 1% previously pencilled in, at 0.8%. The picture for GNP is brighter, however, as the income earned on Irish assets abroad in the second quarter grew at a faster pace than income paid on foreign investments in Ireland with the result that GNP in Q2 grew by 4.3%, which with data revisions left the annual change in GNP at 2.9% following 1.4% in Q1. Factor income flows are notoriously volatile but the data to date has prompted us to forecast a 1.6% rise in GNP in The rise in Irish income earned on assets abroad alongside the strength of service exports resulted in a record balance of payments surplus in the second quarter of 3.2bn and although the figures are prone to revision it appears likely that Ireland will record a very strong surplus for the year as a whole, perhaps over 3% of GDP. This highlights the rebalancing that has occurred in the economy over the past few years, 2 Bank of Ireland Global Markets
3 with the household and corporate sectors now enjoying large surpluses which are now dwarfing the deficit run by the public sector. downside risks to 1.5% GDP forecast for next year. We had projected GDP growth of 1.5% for 2013 and for the moment are inclined to retain this forecast, although the risks appear clearly on the downside, given the uncertain global outlook, particularly in the euro zone, and the likely impact of another deflationary Budget. The recent fall in the ECB repo rate may provide some relief for mortgage holders, (the majority are on tracker rates) and the decline in the euro against sterling will help indigenous exporters but any fall in inflation from here is likely to be modest, absent a sharp decline in energy prices. Some analysts had pinned hopes of a recovery in household spending on a fall in the savings ratio although that too appears unlikely given that the rate as reported is now much lower than many had thought. Consequently, we expect consumer spending to fall by 1% next year and to contribute to another decline in domestic demand, albeit small, with some offset from a further increase in business spending on machinery and equipment. Any growth therefore will come from net exports, highlighting Ireland s vulnerability to the external environment. Real GDP (% change) (e) 2013 (f) Personal Consumption Government Consumption Capital Formation Machinery & Equipment Construction Stocks (% of GDP) Exports Imports GDP GNP Bank of Ireland Global Markets
4 Inflation HICP inflation rises to euro average Sharp rise in HICP inflation over past year Ireland s annual inflation rate, as measured by the Harmonised Index (HICP) rose to 2.6% in August, from 2.0% in July, and as such met the euro average for the first time in over three and half years. Indeed, over the past five years inflation has averaged 1.0% below the euro zone equivalent, so Ireland s relative inflation performance has deteriorated of late, with the actual inflation rate accelerating from just 1% twelve months ago. The pick up in Irish HICP inflation over the past year is largely due to the service sector, with the annual inflation rate accelerating from 0.7% to 3.6%. Transport inflation, in particular, have risen sharply, to the current 8.2% from 3.5% a year ago, driven by high fuel costs and a significant pick up in the price of transport fares. Fees for education have also risen substantially and prices in restaurants and hotels are now rising again having fallen for a period. but mortgage costs dampen CPI... As a consequence, HICP inflation is now likely to average 2.1% for the year as a whole from 1.1% last year. We expect some deceleration in inflation on this measure next year, however, on the assumption that the spike in oil prices earlier in the year is not repeated. Higher fees and charges in the public sector may provide an upside surprise, but for the moment we expect HICP inflation to average 1.7% in CPI inflation in August was 2.0% and therefore marginally lower than the figure a year earlier, largely reflecting the impact of mortgage interest payments. Twelve months ago the latter were still rising but are now falling, declining by an annual 13% in the latest figures, hence reducing the overall CPI inflation rate by 0.75 percentage points. For 2012 we now expect CPI inflation to average 1.9%, down from 2.6% in 2011, and to average 1.7% next year in the absence of a significant move in energy prices. CPI Inflation (annual change, %) (e) 2013 (f) Q Q Q Q Annual HICP Bank of Ireland Global Markets
5 The Labour Market Immigration now seen as much stronger during boom Job creation remains elusive Although Ireland s GDP in the second quarter was 2.6% above the cycle low in late 2009 this has yet to translate into jobs creation. Employment fell again in Q2 by a seasonally adjusted 14,000 (0.8%) taking the annual decline to 33,000 (1.8%) and the total of jobs lost over the past five years to over 360,000. Employment had risen on a seasonally adjusted basis in the final quarter of last year but the latest revisions show that this gain was more than offset by a 10,000 fall in Q1, so there is no evidence in the year to date that employment is stablising. Moreover, the decline in Q2 was widespread, with only a few industries recording modest job gains, including hotels and the professional and scientific sector. The decline in the labour force in the second quarter was similar to that of employment with the result that the numbers unemployed were broadly unchanged at 309,000, as was the unemployment rate of 14.8%. The latter has remained at that level over the third quarter, based on the monthly estimates, and we expect the annual average to also emerge at 14.8%, although against a weaker labour market than we had envisaged; we expect employment to fall by an average 20,000 in 2012, or 1.1% with the fall in the labour force now estimated at 14,000 or 0.7%. The stimulus to the economy from net exports is clearly not sufficient to compensate for the weakness in domestic spending in its impact on the aggregate demand for labour and we now project employment bottoming out next year, which with an unchanged labour force will leave the unemployment rate around its current level. and migration flows are significant. The size of the Irish labour force is more volatile than most other EU States due to its open nature and the scale of migration flows. The 2011 census recorded that the population was over 90,000 higher than had been assumed, in turn implying more significant immigration than previously estimated. Consequently, the CSO has recently revised the migration data and it now shows immigration of 151,000 in the twelve months to April 2007 and a net inflow of over 100,000. Immigration peaked in that year and has slowed since, albeit still reaching 53,000 in the year to April 2012, while emigration has picked up substantially, from 46,000 at the peak of the boom to the latest figure of 87,000, with the result that there is now a net outflow of 34,000 a year. This is currently being offset by the natural increase in population, with the result that the total population rose by 0.2% in the year to April 2012, to 4.59 million. Labour Market (annual averages 000) (e) 2013 (f) Employment Labour Force Unemployed (% of labour force) Bank of Ireland Global Markets
6 Exchequer Finance Budget ahead of target despite weaker growth Revenue still ahead of target The latest exchequer figures, to end-september, show that the 2012 Budget is still in line with the official target and indeed could emerge ahead, although November is a very large tax month, accounting for 15% of total receipts, which argues for a degree of caution. Tax revenue has been consistently ahead of profile this year and that remains the case; receipts at end-september were 386m above target, or 1.5%, and 8.4% above the same period last year. Strong corporation tax inflows are a key factor ( 251m or 11% above profile) alongside VAT ( 94m ahead or 1.2%) and income tax ( 101m or 1%), offsetting a 135m (3.9%) shortfall in excise duty. Non-tax revenue also appears to be running ahead of expectations, as the 2.4bn total year to date is already only marginally below the full-year target although as the Fiscal Advisory Council recently noted, the authorities generally provide little commentary on this component. Fees from the guaranteed banks amount to 800m, already at the full-year target, and profits from the Central Bank are now ahead of the 945m assumed in the Budget. The exchequer has also received 300mn in interest payments on the contingent capital bonds provided to the covered banks which was not included in the Budget arithmetic. Voted current spending is still running ahead of expectations, by 600m of 2%, although partly offset by a 270m undershoot on the capital side (13.6%) to leave total voted spending (i.e. excluding debt interest) just 1% behind profile. As a result the current budget deficit for the first nine months of the year emerged at 9.1bn, against an 8.9bn shortfall in the same period last year and could well emerge below the fullyear target of 11.2bn in the absence of a revenue setback in November given the prospect of some savings in terms of debt interest relative to the Budget target. and deficit may emerge below forecast. The capital deficit was projected to fall sharply this year relative to 2011 (from 13.7bn to 7.7bn) largely reflecting the scale of bank support last year, but in the event the deficit will now be lower still, as the 3.1bn payment to IBRC took the form of a government bond instead. Consequently, the Exchequer Borrowing Requirement (EBR) to end-september came in well below last year s 20.7bn, at 11.1bn. The General Government deficit will not be affected, however. The strong budgeting performance to date also means that Ireland continues to meet the Troika fiscal targets, although the latter are set in terms of the primary deficit which came in at 10.1bn in the first nine months of the year, against a target of 11.4bn. Exchequer Finances ( bn) Budget Forecast Current Expenditure Voted Non-voted Revenue Tax Other Current Budget Balance Capital Balance Exchequer Balance General Government Balance (% of GDP) (-13.1%) (-8.6%) (-8.2%) 6 Bank of Ireland Global Markets
7 Funding the Exchequer Deficit Ireland builds cash balances 10bn overfund increases balances to 28bn The NTMA entered the year with cash balances of 17.8bn and has over-funded by some 10bn in the first nine months of the year, so boosting cash balances to 28bn. The Agency has raised 21.3bn in 2012, excluding the bond issued to IBRC, against an EBR of 11.1bn, with 18.7bn of funding borrowed under the EU/IMF programme (including 1.7bn in bilateral loans, largely from the UK) and 1.3bn raised through the various National Savings Schemes, marketed to retail investors in Ireland. The surprise development on the funding side was Ireland s return to the bond market which few expected to occur this year. Irish bonds had rallied steadily from last Autumn and following a becalmed period in the Spring rallied strongly again from late June. This prompted the NTMA to first issue Treasury Bills and then to launch a new bond, the 5.5% 2017, in July. The Agency coupled this with switch terms from bonds maturing in 2013 and 2014 into the new 5-year or the 5% 2020, and raised 5.2bn as a result or 4.2bn in new funds. In addition, the Agency met demand from Irish pension funds for amortising bonds and raised an additional 1bn in August via five different maturities, ranging from 15 years to 35 years. The Irish market has continued to perform well and the yield on the new 5-year benchmark fell from over 5.5% to under 3.5% while the 5% 2020 yield fell below 5%, prompting speculation that the NTMA would tap the market again as yields are now well below the 5.9% average paid to fund a few months ago. but no deal on bank debt. One factor in the bond rally was the expectation that Ireland would receive some relief on the bank debt that had been added to the sovereign debt, but events of late have cast some doubt on that; a statement by the finance ministers of Germany Austria and the Netherland appeared to rule out the transfer of legacy debt from banks to the ESM. The Irish government is still pressing its case, although a near-term conclusion is unlikely. An extension to the maturity of the Promissory Note is perhaps more likely, and it would reduce the 3bn per annum pencilled into the EBR forecasts over the next few years, although not reducing the debt level and no doubt increasing the overall cost in the long run. Despite these setbacks the situation remains positive, in that the Government can draw down the remaining 14bn in official funding which, alongside the 28bn in cash balances, is a comfortable cushion against the 38bn funding requirement estimated for 2013 and 2014, assuming that the exchequer deficits emerge as currently projected. 7 Bank of Ireland Global Markets
8 Contact Us Economic Research Unit (ERU) To discuss any aspect of this report, contact your treasury specialist or our Economic Research UNIT (ERU): Chief Economist, Bank of Ireland: Dr. Dan McLaughlin Tel: +353 (0) Senior Economist: Michael Crowley Economist: Patrick Mullane Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury or Business Banking Treasury Institutional Treasury Specialised Finance +353 (0) UK Sales Team (within the UK) US Sales Team Our Offices Dublin 2 Burlington Plaza, Burlington Road, Dublin 4, Ireland Tel +353 (0) London Bow Bells House, 1 Bread Street, London EC4P 4BP, UK Tel +44 (0) Belfast 1 Donegall Square South, Belfast, BT1 5LR, UK Tel +44 (0) Stamford (US) 300 First Stamford Place, Stamford CT 06902, US Tel Keep in touch with the markets, visit Market data supplied by Thomson Reuters Disclaimer This document has been prepared by the Economic Research Unit at Bank of Ireland Global Markets ( GM ) for information purposes only and GM is not soliciting any action based upon it. GM believes any information contained herein to be accurate but GM does not warrant its accuracy and accepts no responsibility, other than any responsibility it may owe to any party under the European Communities (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2007 as may be amended from time to time, and under the Financial Services Authority rules (where the client is resident in the UK), for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission taken as a result of the information contained in this document. No prices or rates mentioned are bids or offers by GM to purchase or sell any currencies, securities or financial instruments. Except as otherwise may be specifically agreed, GM has not acted nor will act as a fiduciary, financial or investment adviser with respect to any currency or derivative transaction that it has executed or will execute. Any decision made by a party after reading this document shall be on the basis of its own research and not be influenced or based on any view expressed by GM. This document does not address all risks. Any party should obtain independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Any expressions of opinion reflect current opinions as at 12 th October This publication is based on information available before this date. This document is property of GM. The content may not be reproduced, either in whole or in part, without the express written consent of a suitably authorised member of GM staff. Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Bank of Ireland is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. Bank of Ireland incorporated in Ireland with limited liability. Registered Office - Head Office, 40 Mespil Road, Dublin 4, Ireland.Registered Number - C-1. Bank of Ireland Global Markets
Domestic demand shows signs of life
Produced by the Economic Research Unit January 2013 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Domestic demand shows signs of life Group Chief Economist: Dan McLaughlin 0.8% rise in GDP still
More informationRecovery stronger than previously reported
Produced by the Economic Research Unit August 2012 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Recovery stronger than previously reported Group Chief Economist: Dan McLaughlin GDP 2.2% above cycle
More information1% growth forecast for this year
Produced by the Economic Research Unit April 2013 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy 1% growth forecast for this year Group Chief Economist: Dr. Dan McLaughlin Exports have slowed and
More informationExport surge offsets weak domestic spending
Produced by the Economic Research Unit January 2011 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Export surge offsets weak domestic spending Exports have been stronger than expected Domestic spending
More informationGDP expectations for 2011 revised down
Produced by the Economic Research Unit April 2011 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy GDP expectations for 2011 revised down Surprising weak end to 2010 GNP to outpace GDP this year The
More informationGlobal Markets. Ireland Overview. June 2012 RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU PRODUCTS TREASURY SPECIALISTS
Global Markets Ireland Overview June 212 TREASURY SPECIALISTS PRODUCTS RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU Produced by the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit (ERU) Contents SECTION ONE Ireland by numbers 2
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationGrowth to accelerate. A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy
Produced by the Economic Research Unit July 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Growth to accelerate Strong start to 2014 Recovery becoming more broad-based GDP growth revised up for
More informationEconomic Outlook. December Dan McLaughlin. Chief Economist
Economic Outlook December 211 Chief Economist Dan McLaughlin 11q3(e) 11q1 1q3 Global growth has slowed this year... Global Growth (%) 6 4 2-2 -4-6 1q1 9q3 9q1 8q3 8q1 7q3 7q1 World US Euro And OECD expects
More informationGlobal Markets. Ireland Overview. February 2012 RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU PRODUCTS TREASURY SPECIALISTS
Global Markets Ireland Overview February 212 TREASURY SPECIALISTS PRODUCTS RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU Produced by the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit (ERU) Contents SECTION ONE Ireland by numbers
More informationIreland Overview. November Global Markets
Ireland Overview November 213 Global Markets Produced by the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit (ERU) Further reduction of Governm Contents Section One Macroeconomic data analysis 2 1a. Irish economy
More informationIrish economy contracts in face of three shocks
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2008 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Irish economy contracts in face of three shocks GDP likely to fall again in 2009 Falling inflation
More informationWeekly Commentary 13 February 2015
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationWeekly Commentary 02 May 2014
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationIreland Overview November 2011
Global Markets Ireland Overview November 211 TREASURY SPECIALISTS PRODUCTS RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU the treasury specialists Produced by the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit Contents SECTION ONE
More informationWeekly Commentary 21 March 2014
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationContraction may prompt Budget rethink
Produced by the Economic Research Unit July 2013 A monthly analysis of international and Irish markets Contraction may prompt Budget rethink Group Chief Economist: Dr. Dan McLaughlin GDP now likely to
More informationIreland Overview 11 April 2011
Global Markets Ireland Overview 11 April 2011 TREASURY SPECIALISTS PRODUCTS RESEARCH DEVELOPED FOR YOU the treasury specialists Produced by the Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit. Contents SECTION
More informationIrish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Irish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit 9th October 2018 Budget 2019 Public Finances in Balance The Irish economy has performed strongly in recent years, boosting tax revenues. Corporation
More informationECB ready to begin government bond purchases
Produced by the Economic Research Unit January 2015 A monthly analysis of Global and Irish developments ECB ready to begin government bond purchases Euro area inflation falls into negative territory Increased
More informationEconomic Projections for
Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections
More informationIreland Outlook. Economy powering on. February Economic Research Unit
Ireland Outlook February 218 Economy powering on Momentum in the Irish economy remains strong, with activity in the first three quarters of 217 ahead of expectations and high frequency data indicating
More informationEconomic Projections For 2014 And 2015
Economic Projections For 2014 And 2015 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2014:3, pp. 77-81 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2014 AND 2015 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic
More informationEconomic Projections :2
Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:2 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More informationIrish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Irish Economic Update AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit 10th October 2017 Budget 2018 Deficit Close To Being Eliminated The Irish economy has performed strongly in recent years, which has helped to boost
More informationEconomic Projections :3
Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:3 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to remain
More informationEconomic Projections :1
Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More informationThe Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth
The Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth September 15 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 13 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy boomed from 1993 to
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationWeekly Commentary 30 May 2014
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationUK Outlook. Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty. July Economic Research Unit
UK Outlook July Economy in holding pattern amid Brexit uncertainty While it has been a game of two halves for the UK economy over the first six months of - poor weather dampening activity in the first
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Modest
More informationUK Outlook. Steady as she goes for the economy. February Economic Research Unit
UK Outlook February 218 Steady as she goes for the economy Eight months into the formal Brexit negotiations, sufficient progress has been made on Phase 1 issues and the focus has moved to the future relationship
More informationDanske Bank October 2015 Economic Update,
Monthly update: 5 October 2015 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan www.danskebank.co.uk/ec Local job and investment announcements during September 2015 Over the month of September there
More informationBCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015
BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and
More informationEconomic projections
Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain
More informationIreland. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 2015 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Rising domestic demand improves prospects for 2015 Published in collaboration with Highlights The Irish economy grew by 4.8% last year, which was
More informationThe Irish Public Finances: A Post-Budget 2018 Overview. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland
The Irish Public Finances: A Post-Budget 2018 Overview Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland October 2018 Budget 2019 featured a total of 1.8bn of spending increases and tax reductions, part
More informationEconomic UpdatE JUnE 2016
Economic Update June Date of issue: 30 June Central Bank of Malta, Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website https://www.centralbankmalta.org
More informationNorthern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts
2017 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary The Northern Ireland economy enjoyed a solid performance in 2016 with overall growth of 1.5%, the strongest rate of growth
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI
Embargoed until 0101 UK (0001 UTC) 10 September 2018 Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI New orders rise at weakest pace in four months Key Findings Weaker growth of output and new orders Further increase
More informationThe Irish Economy ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Irish Economy ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2007 AIB Global Treasury Economic Research AIB Global Treasury Economic Research Unit John Beggs Chief Economist Phone: 01-6417863; e-mail: john.f.beggs@aib.ie
More informationWeekly Commentary 18 July 2014
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationDanske Bank March 1 ST 2016 Economic Update,
Monthly update: Tuesday 1 March 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during January 2016: The NI economy suffered a significant blow during the
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Ireland
More informationMEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST Q2 2010 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1 813 25 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: Monetary Policy Department +421 2 5787 2611 +421
More informationProjections for the Portuguese Economy:
Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic
More informationFixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016.
PRICE POINT February 2016 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kenneth Orchard Portfolio
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationWeekly Commentary 15 June 2012
Contact your treasury specialist Corporate Treasury 1800 60 70 20 or 1800 30 30 03 Business Banking Treasury 1800 79 01 53 Institutional Treasury 1800 60 70 40 Specialised Finance +353 (0) 1 790 0001 UK
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationBank of Ireland Presentation. November 2011
Bank of Ireland Presentation November 2011 As at 21 November 2011 Forward-looking statement This document contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the US Securities
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Slovenia
More informationSlovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Activity to remain solid this year, after growing 2.4% in 214 Published in collaboration with Highlights n GDP grew by 2.4% in 214 and 3% in Q1 215,
More informationSvein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy
Svein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationFinancial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks John Praveen
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationSwiss Economy 2018 outlook
Economic and Financial Analysis 15 December 2017 Article 15 December 2017 Swiss Economy 2018 outlook Global Economics The Swiss National Bank will have to wait until late 2019 before the current activity
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationThe Irish Economic Update Continuing Robust Growth But Risks Remain
The Irish Economic Update Continuing Robust Growth But Risks Remain April 216 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 213 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy
More informationAustria s economy will grow by 2¾% in 2017
Gerhard Fenz, Friedrich Fritzer, Martin Schneider 1 In the first half of 217, Austria s economy gathered further momentum. With growth rates by.8% in both the first and the second quarters, Austria recorded
More informationSwiss Quarterly: On the right track
Economic and Financial Analysis 10 July 2018 Global Economics 10 July 2018 Article Swiss Quarterly: On the right track Even though Switzerland s real GDP growth lost some momentum, the outlook is positive
More informationInvestec Services PMI Ireland
Embargoed until: 06:00 (Dublin) June 6th 18 Investec Services PMI Ireland Investec T: +3-1-421-0496 E: Investec.Economics@investec.ie W: www.investec.ie Investec in Ireland, a member of the Investec Group,
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, August 2016
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Iceland Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, August 2016 Published 7 September 2016 The Act on the Central Bank of Iceland stipulates that
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further
More informationUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI
11 February 2019 Employment falls for first time in four years Key Findings Output growth at 28-month low Employment falls for first time in four years Business sentiment remains muted Northern Ireland
More informationINVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018
INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 OVERVIEW Surveys and hard data show the global economy growing at a healthy pace with minimal inflation risk. Activity accelerated in Q2 and our expectation of 3.4% GDP growth
More informationBelgium: Just not fast enough
Economic and Financial Analysis 17 May 2018 Article 17 May 2018 Belgium: Just not fast enough Global Economics For Belgium, 2017 was another recovery year which is definitively satisfactory but things
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Poland
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Poland. 6 OCTOBER 2015 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 24 May 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank In recent weeks,
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia
More informationEurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationMauritius Economy Update January 2015
January 19, 2015 Economics Mauritius Economy Update January 2015 Overview - Mauritian economy has been witnessing a persistent moderation in growth since 2010 due to weak economic activity in Euro Zone,
More informationMonitor Euro area deflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 July 2014 Euro area deflation Inflation outlook Euro inflation remained very low at 0.5% in June and is still far below the ECB s target. In response, the
More informationIreland s market recovery continues, evidenced by normal issuance in January 2013 and positive reaction to Promissory Note deal
IRELAND: REGAINING CREDITWORTHINESS Ireland s market recovery continues, evidenced by normal issuance in January 2013 and positive reaction to Promissory Note deal John Corrigan, CEO NTMA IAPF Conference,
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high. February 8 th 2016
Global PMI Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high February 8 th 2016 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2 Global PMI at 22-month high The global economy started 2017 with
More informationSUMMARY The Quarterly National Accounts for the third quarter of 2005 show GNP to have
SUMMARY The Quarterly National Accounts for the third quarter of 2005 show GNP to have increased by 7 per cent in volume terms since the same period in the previous year. The corresponding figure for GDP
More informationMACROECONOMIC FORECAST
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Spring 17 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria Bulgarian economy is expected to expand by 3% in 17 driven by domestic demand. As compared to 16, the external sector will
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 20 November 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationNote de conjuncture n
Note de conjuncture n 1-2005 Growth accelerates in 2004, expected to slow down in 2005 STATEC has just published Note de Conjoncture No. 1-2005. The first issue of the year serves as an "Annual Economic
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationFISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE
FISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE September 2018 Contents Opinion... 3 Explanatory Report... 4 Opinion on the summer forecast 2018 of the Ministry of Finance...
More informationInvestec Services PMI Ireland
Embargoed until: 06:00 (Dublin) July 4th 18 Investec Services PMI Ireland Sharpest rise in activity since January Investec T: +3-1-421-0496 E: Investec.Economics@investec.ie W: www.investec.ie Investec
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 December 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 December 2017 Publication date: 14 December 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 4 MARCH 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook
More informationThe Irish Economic Update
The Irish Economic Update Performing well, but risks ahead January 219 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB 1 Strong growth by Irish economy over past 6 years Irish economy boomed from 1993 to 27 with GDP
More informationNorthern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts
Economic Analysis Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts 2018 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary For the Northern Ireland economy, the first part of 2018 has
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting November 2010
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Iceland Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting November 2010 Published: 17 November 2010 The Act on the Central Bank of Iceland stipulates
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators The Czech Republic
Main Economic & Financial Indicators The Czech Republic 15 OCTOBER 215 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-()2-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 6 July 2016
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 6 July 2016 At the meeting, members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of macroeconomic
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017 Publication date: 11 May 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on
More information