Setting Target Reliabilities by Marginal Safety Returns Rolf Skjong
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1 Setting Target Reliabilities by Marginal Safety Returns Rolf Skjong Strategic Research Det Norske Veritas JCSS Workshop on Code Calibration, March
2 Traditional Approach - SRA Typical Example:DNV Classification Note 30.6 (1992) on Structural Reliability Analysis of Maritime Structures Explains why SRA does not produce Probabilities with a frequency interpretation No gross error Epistemic uncertainty & model uncertainties included SRA talk of notional reliabilities 2
3 Traditional Approach - SRA Target should depend on consequence Calibration against known cases (that are acceptable good/best practices in the industry) Calibration against similar cases with similar consequences Based on accepted decision analysis techniques Based on tabular values (presented as a last resort) 3
4 Traditional Approach - SRA Target should depend on consequence Calibration against known cases (that are acceptable good/best practices in the industry) Calibration against similar cases with similar consequences Based on accepted decision analysis techniques Based on tabular values (presented as a last resort) 4
5 Traditional Approach - SRA Based on tabular values (presented as a last resort) Annual Target Probabilities (and Target β T ) from DNV Classification Note 30.6 Class of Failure Consequence of Failure Less serious Serious I- Redundant Structure P F = 10-3, β T = 3.09 P F = 10-4, β T = 3.71 II - Significant warning before the occurrence of P F = 10-4, β T = 3.71 P F = 10-5, β T = 4.26 failure in a non-redundant structure III - No warning before the occurrence of failure in a non-redundant structure P F = 10-5, β T = 4.26 P F = 10-6, β T =
6 Traditional Approach - QRA Quantitative risk assessment is the basis for regulations in many industries PSA/PRA - Nuclear Hazardous Industries (Seveso I/II) Offshore (Safety Case) Shipping (FSA) Etc. 6
7 Quantitative Risk Assessment Two uses of Risk assessment Use as a basis for receiving and maintaining a licence to operate (the plant, platform etc.) Safety Case Use as a basis for implementing risk reducing measures for populations (all cars, all ships, all planes etc.) Formal Safety Assessment 7
8 Traditional Approach - QRA Present Risk Results in terms of Individual risk (fatalities) Individual risk (Health and Injuries) Societal Risk (group Risk) Environmental risk Economic risk (not necessarily a regulatory issue) 8
9 9 Traditional Approach - QRA Example Individual risk 1.00E E E E E E-07 Intolerable Risk ALARP Negligible Risk Individual risk Oil Tanker Chemical Tanker Oil/Chemical Tanker Gas Tanker Bulk/Oil Carrier Bulk Carrier (incl. Ore) Container Vessel General Cargo Carrier Ro/Ro Cargo Carrier
10 Traditional Approach - QRA Example Health Risk Health index Perfect health 1 A Expected Health index, when RCO implemented Quality Adjusted Life Years gained by implementing the RCO A B Expected Health index, when RCO not implemented B Death 0 C Time (years) 10
11 Traditional Approach - QRA Example Societal Risk Frequency of N or more fatalities (per ship year) 1.0E E E E-05 Negligible Intolerable A LARP Oil tankers Chem. tankers Oil/Chemical tankers Gas tanker 1.0E Fatalities (N) 11
12 Traditional Approach - QRA High Risk Intolerable Not acceptable ALARP Acceptable if made ALARP 12 Low Risk Negligible Acceptable
13 Traditional Approach - QRA The As Low As Reasonably Practicable Area implies that cost effectiveness assessment may be used Risk is made As Low As Reasonably Practicable, when all cost effective safety measures have been implemented Implies that a decision criteria for cost effectiveness will be required 13
14 Methods for deriving criteria Human capital approach Willingness to pay Comparing to well informed (risk informed) decisions in democratic forum (a willingness to pay) Comparing to previous decision (a willingness to pay) Societal Indicators (a willingness to pay) Individual decisions 14
15 Human capital approach Value of man as a resource in economic production Has discredited cost effectiveness & cost benefit assessment Contradicts ethical principle (Protagoras: Homo mensura and later formulations, e.g. Kant) Same reason as many governments ban research on human stem-cells 15
16 Willingness to pay Many forms of willingness to pay studies Questionnaires Observed behaviour (e.g. insurance) Implicit in previous decisions Implicit in existing regulations Etc. 16
17 Comparing to well informed decisions Example from IMO: UN Organisation for maritime safety and environmental protection regulations Decision Strengthening Bulkheads on Existing Bulk Carriers Helicopter Landing Area on non-ro/ro Passenger Ships Cost of averting fatalities in actual decisions Decision Maker IACS and IMO (1) IMO(2) Value > $ 1.5 million < $ 37 million ($ 12 million to $ 73 billion) 3 bulkheads on car deck IMO(3) < $ 5 million 3 bulkheads on car deck NMD(3) > $ 5 million 3 bulkheads + sponsons IMO(3) < 7.8 million Extended sponsons only IMO(3) < $ 11 million Collision Avoidance Training Owner(3) > $ 0.7 million Extra Deck Officer IMO(3) < $ 5.5 million Re: (1) Mathisen et al.(1997), (2) Skjong et al.(1997), (3) DNV(1997) 17
18 Comparing to previous decision Results from Tengs et al. (1995) Five Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and their Cost Effectiveness Number of measures studied 587 Range of cost effectiveness Negative to $10 billion/life year saved Median Value $ /life year Median for Medical Interventions $ /life year Median for Injury Prevention $ /life year Median for toxic control $2.8 million/life year By reallocation lives could be saved annually in the US $ = $ 1.5 million 18
19 Societal Indicators 19 Societal Indicators used to rate quality of life in countries Published by UN (UNDP) Many different indictors exist Include such parameters as: GDP/Capita, Life Expectancy at Birth, literacy etc. HDI (1999) 1 Norway Australia Canada Sweden Belgium United States Iceland Netherlands Japan Finland Switzerland 0.924
20 Social Indicators dl L w dg g ( 1 w) de e L g w e 1 w 20
21 21 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Societal Indicators CAF for OECD Countries ( $ million ) Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Average OECD
22 Individual Decisions Also individuals take decision that increase life expectancy and reduces accident frequencies For example: Buy safer cars Buy more healthy food Go to the doctor more frequently Etc. How much increase in purchasing power is necessary to increase the life expectancy in a population by e 22
23 Individual Decisions
24 Italy Societal Indicators Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Average OECD Korea Luxembourg Japan Ireland Iceland Hungary Greece France Germany Finland Denmark Czech Republic Belgium Canada Austria Australia $US million
25 Published Numbers Published NCAF values in use in acceptance criteria ORGANISATION SUBJECT NCAF SOURCE US Federal Highway Road Transport $2.5m ( 1.6m) FHWA (1994) Administration UK Department of Road transport 1.0 m (1998, uprated with DETR (1998) Transport GDP per capita) UK Health & Safety Industrial safety As above or higher HSE (1999) Executive Railtrack (UK rail Overground railways As above to 2.65m Railtrack (1998) infrastructure controller) London Underground Ltd. Underground railways 2m ($2.9 m) Rose (1994) EU Road Transport 1 million ($0.89m) Evans (1998) Norway All hazards NOK 10m ($1.1m) Norway (1996) 25
26 Criterion? 26 For an OECD member country (excluding the newest members) the criteria is somewhere in the range $ million Some uncertainties relates to: Fatalities as indicator or actual fatalities NCAF or GCAF Despite uncertainty different methods give surprisingly consistent results In a QRA a factor of 2 is not much compared to the uncertainty in the analysis In SRA the design variables are continuos, and we do not know how sensitive the resulting dimensions are to the criterion
27 Advantages in SRA Consistency with QRA The decision is based on the derivative of P F with respect to design variables only Not reliant on probability (the absolute number) Example: Mid ship bending moment Table 1: GCAF/NCAF in US$ million for increases of the reliability index Flat Bar L-Profile / / / / / /
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