Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page 1
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1 8 Weeks To MN DFL Primary for Governor, Dayton Out in Front, But Kelliher, Entenza Have Support in Some Quarters: In a DFL Primary for Governor of Minnesota today, 06/7/0, former US Senator Mark Dayton defeats State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, according to a KSTP-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Dayton leads : in Western Minnesota and : among seniors. Kelliher ties Dayton in the greater Twin Cities. Entenza ties Dayton among Independents: Minnesota voters do not declare party affiliations, and any voter can vote in the DFL primary. In General Election Matchups, Republican Emmer Loses Some Ground: In three hypothetical, look-ahead general election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 06/7/0, Republican Tom Emmer is in a tight fight no matter his DFL opponent. Against Democrat Mark Dayton today, it's Emmer 5%, Dayton 8%. Against Democrat Margaret Anderson Kelliher today, it's Emmer 5%, Kelliher %. Against Democrat Matt Entenza today, it's Emmer 7%, Entenza %. Compared to identical SurveyUSA tracking polls released 6 weeks ago... Dayton is up points; Emmer is down 7. Kelliher is flat; Emmer is down 6 points; Entenza is up points; Emmer is down 5. Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed,50 Minnesota adults 06//0 through 06/6/0; of them,,079 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 500 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the August 0 DFL primary. SurveyUSA then determined that, of the registered voters,,67 were likely to vote in the November 00 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 0 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection. Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Male Female White Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen Kelliher 6% % 0% % 5% 7% % 8% % 5% 7% ** ** 6% % 9% Dayton 9% % 5% % 9% 7% 8% 5% % 9% % ** ** % % % Entenza % % 9% 7% % % % 0% % % 7% ** ** 8% 0% 0% Idusogie % % % 5% % % 0% % % % % ** ** % % 8% Undecided % 8% % % % 9% 8% % 9% % % ** ** 9% 6% 0% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely DFL Primary V 00% 5% 8% 9% 5% 8% 7% % 56% 89% 5% % % % 6% 0% Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page
2 Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Conser Modera Liberal Favora Unfavor Neutral No Opi Suport Oppose Yes No Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho Kelliher 6% 5% 9% 9% 8% 9% % 5% 9% 8% 9% % % 6% % % 8% Dayton 9% 8% 7% % 5% 9% 0% 6% 0% % 9% 0% % % 6% 8% % Entenza % 7% 5% 9% 8% 5% % 0% 9% 5% 0% % % 0% % 0% % Idusogie % 7% 0% % % % 0% 0% 8% % % 0% % % % 5% % Undecided % % 9% 6% 9% 5% 5% 9% % 6% 7% % % 0% 8% 5% 8% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely DFL Primary V 00% 8% % % 6% 5% % % % 57% 5% 9% 5% % % % 65% Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Yes No < $50K > $50K Twin Cit South West M Northea Kelliher 6% % 9% % 8% 9% % 9% 5% Dayton 9% 5% 5% 0% % % 7% 56% 6% Entenza % 8% % % 0% % % 7% 6% Idusogie % % % % % % % % % Undecided % 0% 0% % 9% 0% 7% 6% % Composition of Likely DFL Primary V 00% 8% 5% % 59% 56% % 7% 5% Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Male Female White Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen Emmer (R) 5% % 9% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 9% 5% ** ** ** 7% 7% 0% Kelliher (DFL) % 9% 6% % 7% 7% 6% 9% 6% % ** ** ** 6% 6% 5% Horner (IP) % % 0% % % % 0% % % % ** ** ** 8% 9% % Undecided % 6% 5% % % % 8% 8% % % ** ** ** % % % 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 50% 50% 9% % 6% % 5% 7% 9% % % % % 7% 7% Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page
3 Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Conser Modera Liberal Favora Unfavor Neutral No Opi Suport Oppose Yes No Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho Emmer (R) 5% 69% % % 7% 6% % 8% 67% 0% % 6% % % % 55% 7% Kelliher (DFL) % 7% 0% 6% % 66% % 8% 8% 6% 6% 0% 7% 7% % 7% 50% Horner (IP) % 8% % 7% % % 5% 8% % % % % % % 5% 9% % Undecided % 7% % 5% % 6% 9% 6% % 5% 8% % % 8% 0% 8% % 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% % % 8% 9% % % % 7% 7% 5% 8% 5% % 5% 7% 9% Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Yes No < $50K > $50K Twin Cit South West M Northea Emmer (R) 5% % 6% 9% 8% 8% % 9% 8% Kelliher (DFL) % 0% 0% % % 0% % % % Horner (IP) % 0% % % % % % 8% 0% Undecided % 8% % 6% 7% 0% % 0% 0% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 5% % % 67% 58% % % % Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Male Female White Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen Emmer (R) 5% % 9% 9% % % 7% % 9% 5% ** ** ** 7% 7% 0% Dayton (DFL) 8% % % 8% 0% 0% 6% % % 8% ** ** ** 9% 69% 9% Horner (IP) % % 0% % % % 9% % % % ** ** ** 7% 0% % Undecided 5% 0% 0% 0% 6% 5% 8% % 7% 6% ** ** ** 0% % 9% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 50% 50% 9% % 6% % 5% 7% 9% % % % % 7% 7% Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page
4 Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Conser Modera Liberal Favora Unfavor Neutral No Opi Suport Oppose Yes No Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho Emmer (R) 5% 7% % 7% 70% 7% 6% 9% 66% % 5% 6% % % % 57% 7% Dayton (DFL) 8% % 5% 70% 9% 69% 0% 7% % 6% 8% 8% % % 8% % 55% Horner (IP) % 6% 5% 6% % % 5% 6% % % % 0% 0% % 7% 8% % Undecided 5% % 8% 7% 0% % 9% 8% 9% % % 6% 6% 5% % % 5% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% % % 8% 9% % % % 7% 7% 5% 8% 5% % 5% 7% 9% Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Yes No < $50K > $50K Twin Cit South West M Northea Emmer (R) 5% % 7% 0% 8% 9% % 0% 8% Dayton (DFL) 8% % 5% % 8% 5% 7% 0% 9% Horner (IP) % % % % % % % % 0% Undecided 5% % 8% 7% % 5% 7% 7% % Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 5% % % 67% 58% % % % Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Male Female White Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen Emmer (R) 7% % 0% % % % 9% % % 7% ** ** ** 78% 8% % Entenza (DFL) % % 5% % 6% 7% 7% 9% 7% % ** ** ** 7% 6% 5% Horner (IP) % % % % % % 0% % % % ** ** ** 5% % % Undecided 8% % % % 8% 8% % 6% % 9% ** ** ** 0% 9% % 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 50% 50% 9% % 6% % 5% 7% 9% % % % % 7% 7% Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page
5 Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Conser Modera Liberal Favora Unfavor Neutral No Opi Suport Oppose Yes No Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho Emmer (R) 7% 7% % 6% 7% 7% 8% % 69% % 7% 7% 5% % % 60% 8% Entenza (DFL) % 7% 0% 66% 7% 6% 5% 7% 0% 59% 6% % 8% 5% % 9% 9% Horner (IP) % 7% % 6% 0% % % 0% % % % % 9% % 7% 8% % Undecided 8% % % % 9% 7% % % 9% 6% 6% 0% 8% 8% 6% % 0% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% % % 8% 9% % % % 7% 7% 5% 8% 5% % 5% 7% 9% Credibility Interval: +/-.5 pct points Yes No < $50K > $50K Twin Cit South West M Northea Emmer (R) 7% 5% 8% % % 0% 8% % 9% Entenza (DFL) % % 8% % % 0% % 6% % Horner (IP) % 0% % % 0% % % % % Undecided 8% % % % 5% 8% 0% 9% 7% Composition of Likely November Vot 00% 5% % % 67% 58% % % % ** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful. Statement of Methodology: About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster's report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page 5
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page 1
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