Allocation of. Centers) Results August Page i

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1 2040 Socioeconomic Dataa Forecasting and Scenario Planning Prepared For: 601 East Kennedy Boulevard Tampa, FL DRAFT < 15, >

2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Purpose Organizationn of the Report Key Considerations... 2 Population Forecasts (BEBR)... 2 Document Review... 2 Stakeholder Interview Guidance... 3 Population and Control Total Assumptions... 3 Summary of the Scenarios Methodology Methodology Overview... 8 Forecast Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Data Greenfield Forecasting Procedures... 9 Vacant Developable Lands Methodology... 9 Population and Employment Allocation Methodology Allocation of Population and Employment to Trafficc Analysis Zones Allocation of School Enrollment Allocation of Hotel and Motel Units Redevelopment Forecasting Procedures Center Forecasting Approach (Infill and Redevelopment and Job Centers) Infill and Redevelopment Job Centers School Enrollment Hotel/Motel Units Review and Adjustment Process Conversion of Forecast Data to Travel Demand Model Inputs Scenario Forecasts Scenario Overview Outward Growth Alternative Future Trend Forecast (A) Guiding Principles Methodology and Assumptions Outward Growth: Population and Employment Control Totals Outward Growth: Employment Control Totals Outward Growth: School Enrollment and Hotel/Motel Control Totals Outward Growth Population and Employment Forecast Results Alternative Future: Infill and Redevelopment Focused around Transit (B) Guiding Principles Methodology and Assumptions Infill and Redevelopment: Population and Employment Control Totals Infill and Redevelopment: School Enrollment Infill and Redevelopment: Hotel and Motel Units Infill and Redevelopment Focused around Transit Population and Employment Forecast Results Alternative Future: New Job Centers on Major Corridors (C) DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page i

3 3.5 Methodology and Assumptions New Job Centers on Major Corridors: Population and Dwelling Units Control Totals New Job Centers on Major Corridors: School Enrollment Control Totals New Job Centers on Major Corridors: Hotel and Motel Units New Job Centers on Major Corridors Population and Employment Forecast Results List of Tables Table 1: BEBR Population Forecase Projects for Hillsborough County Table 2: Stakeholders Interviewed Table 3: Summary of Scenarios Table 4: 2010 School Enrollment and Employment Table 5: Conversion from 3 to 5 Employment Categories Table 6: Outward Growth Alternative Future: Countywide Population and Employment Totals Table 7: Outward Growth Alternative Future: Countywide Employment Control Totals by Employment Type Table 8: Cumulative Growth, Table 9: School Enrollment Totals Table 10: Hotel/Motel Unit Control Tables Table 11: Infill and Redevelopment Focused Around Transit: Population and Employment Forecast Predictions Table 12: Infill and Redevelopment Focused Around Transit: Employment Totals by Type Table 13: School Enrollment Totals Table 14: Hotel/Motel Unit Control Totals Table 15: New Job Centers: Population and Employment Forecast Projections Table 16: New Job Centers: Employment Totals by Type Table 17: School Enrollment Totals Table 18: Hotel/Motel Unit Control Totals List of Figures Figure 1: Comparison of Historical and Projected Hillsboroughh County and Florida Growth Rates Figure 2: Comparison of Historical and Projected Hillsboroughh County, Florida and Key Metro Growth Rates Figure 3: Land Use Allocation Process Figure 4: Redevelopme ent Propensity Index Criteria List of Maps Map 1: Hillsborough County Traffic Analysis Zones Map 2: Hillsborough County Planning Areas List of Appendice s Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Hillsborough MPO Post Referendum Analysis Final Document DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page ii

4 Hillsborough MPO Post Referendum Analysis Final Document DRAFT 8/15/ Page iii

5 1.0 Introduction The Hillsborough County Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) iss responsiblee for coordinating transportation planning for Hillsborough County. As part of this effort, the MPO is responsible for updating the federally mandated Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) every five years. Related to the 2040 LRTP update, the Planning Commission is also working on simultaneous updates for the Comprehensive Plans for Plant City, Temple Terrace, Tampaa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County. The purpose of the LRTP is to identify neededd transportation improvements within the county. The Comprehensive Plan guides public policy in terms of transportation, utilities, land use, recreation, and housing. Together, these documents guide future development of the county. One of the first steps in the LTRP process is to develop a forecast of the geographic distribution of the county s population and employment over the LRTP timeframe. These socioeconomic data document anticipated population and employment concentrations and are used to predict travel patterns. Because public policy and transportation investment decisions can influence how the county grows, the MPO planning staff, with the assistance of the Planning Commission and other community members and stakeholders, have drafted a series of population and employment forecasts identified as Alternative Futures for Hillsborough County. These alternative forecasts start by using the population and employment data from as a basis. Then, growth projections developed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) and the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) were allocated on top of the base data to show how population and employees could be distributed in the future based on different assumptions and community values. This effort resulted in the development of three Alternative Futures for 2040, described briefly below: Outward Growth is primarily low density residential growth with employment spread across the county. This vision, becausee it tends towards low density residential development, will consume the most agricultural and rural land of the three. Infill and Redevelopment is a much higher density approach to residential development, occuring closer to the urban centers. Employment occurs primarily in the existing economicc centers. Thesee factors result in little demand to expand the Urban Service Area boundary, and agricultural and rural lands are protected. New Job Centers on Major Corridors envisions somewhat denser residential development, with most new jobs created in identified job centers. There may be a moderate need to expand the Urban Service Area boundary around the interstate highway and interchanges to accommodate these centers. Because much of the residential growth will continue in a suburban pattern, some agricultural and rural lands will consumed by development. The dataa sets developed reflecting these scenarios represent a cooperative effort among the Hillsborough MPO, FDOT District 7, and the local government jurisdictions in Hillsborough County. Numerous review opportunities with staff from the Hillsborough MPO, Hillsborough County, and the local municipalities led to the development of the refined forecast socioeconomic data. 1.1 Purpose The purpose of this report is to document the assumptions, methodology, and resulting alternative forecast scenarios for input into the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Model (TRBPM). The TRBPM uses existing and forecasted population and employment data to predict travel patterns and thereby identify the demand for transportation system investments. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 1

6 1.2 Organization of the Report This report is organized into three chapters. The first chapter describes the key considerations, the base data, and background research. The methodology for allocating the different types of development is describedd in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 details the different alternative future forecasts that were developed by the MPO and its stakeholders. 1.3 Key Considerations Key considerations for the development of the alternative socioeconomic forecast scenarios begin with the population forecast provided by BEBR but also consider past planning studies and initiatives as well as the input of knowledgeable public and private sector stakeholders. These considerations apply to both the overall amount of population and employment growth expected during the planning timeframee as well as to how that growth should be allocated throughoutt the county. The combination of these factors was used to establish different population and employment growth control totals for each of the alternativee scenarios. Population Forecasts (BEBR) Historically, Hillsborough County has grown by more than two percent per year. While annual growth rates decreased in the short term due to the Great Recession, recent data suggest that the county is now experiencing a recovery ho ome sales are increasing and unemployment rates are decreasing. According to the BEBR, Hillsborough County is expected too add nearly 600,000 persons from 2010 to This represents the middle range of BEBR s population projections, which typically are used in planning efforts such as this one. Table 1 shows the BEBR population forecasts considered in the development of the alternative futures. Table 1: BEBR Population Forecast Projections for Hillsborough County Growth Low 1,129,226 1,358,,000 1,440,, ,074 Medium 1,129,226 1,543,,100 1,823,, ,974 High 1,129,226 1,728,,300 2,206,, ,874 Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March. Document Review To better understand the vision for the future of Hillsborough County, a number of documents were reviewed, including: Locational Assessment and Recommended Strategic Plan for Economic Growth, developed by the Tampa Hillsborough Economic Development Corporation (2010) Economic Potential Evaluation of the Future of Hillsborough County Comprehensive Plan (2011) Imagine 2035 plan relating to economic development in support of target industries Economic Prosperity Stakeholder Committee Recommendations Northeast Plant City Area Master Plan I 4 Economic Corridor Study (2009) various Comprehensive Plans (Unincorporated Hillsborough County, Tampa, Plant City and Temple Terrace) State of the Port (2012) Urban Service Area Capacity Study (2011) DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 2

7 Comprehensive Plan Density Analysis Report, developed in 2005 by the University of South Florida There are a number of common themes in these documents, and they all support the vision of an economically strong Hillsborough County. To this end, theyy identify both opportunities and challenges with the current ways of doing business. Opportunities include the diversity of economic development areas and strong concentrations of institutional drivers throughout the region. Challenges include some of the current policies and a lack of overall comprehensive economic development strategy. The Alternative Futures identified by the MPO stafff and its stakeholders reflect different ways the county can develop to addresss such issues to guide an overall vision about transportation and land use. Stakeholder Interview Guidance Early in the project, Hillsborough County MPO staff identified stakeholders to be interviewed about the Long Range Transportation Plan and the challenges relating to population and job growth facing the county. The following individuals were asked to identify areas of growth and what types of growth and development they felt were appropriate. They were also asked, among other things, about job creation initiatives, infrastructure investments, and redevelopment opportunities and challenges that may be faced by the county as it continues to grow. Table 2: Stakeholders Interviewed Stakeholders Interviewed Agency Lucia Garsys, with Gene Boles, Mike Williams Hillsborough County Brad Parrish, Charles Stephenson City of Temple Terrace Greg Horwedel City of Plant City Brian Grady, Joe Mareda, Frank Braux, Paula Harvey Hillsborough County Ron Barton Hillsborough County Bob McDonaugh; CRA Directors Vince Pardo, Ed Johnson, Jeannette Fenton City of Tampa Rick Homans Tampa Hillsborough EDC Cathy Coyle (Randy Goers,Thom Snelling) City of Tampa Jennifer Doerfel Tampa Bay Builders Association Jeff Rogoo Bay Area Apartment Association Bruce Erhardt Cushman & Wakefield Kami Corbett and/or Keith Bricklemeyer, Michael Brooks NAIOP Ron Rotella, with Al Austin and/or other major private interests Westshoree Alliance Chris Burdick Downtown Partnership Rick Harcrow Newland Communities Dave Mechanik Florida Fairgrounds Jerome Ryans and Leroy Moore Tampa Housing Authority Population and Control Total Assumptions As noted above, the BEBR Medium population estimate has traditionally been used as the basis for LRTP socioeconomic forecasting; however, several factors havee suggested the use of alternative, lower growth forecasts for some of the alternative scenarios. Thesee factors include: uncertainty on how quickly Florida s economy (and related growth) will recover following the Great Recession questions of how land supply and land use policy mayy affect the county s growth forecast questions related to the relationship between the county s growth rate and the growth rate of the state as a whole DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 3

8 questions regarding how overall regional growth will be distributed among counties in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area To understand these issues, it is helpful to look at both historical and projected growth in Hillsborough County compared to Florida and other large, metro counties. Figure 1 compares Hillsborough County s growth rate per decade to the state s. In general, the shape of the Hillsborough County curve mimics the state s from the 1970 through 2000 when the state grew quickly, the county grew more quickly as well, albeit at a slower rate than the state as a whole. From 2000 to 2010, however, the patterns diverge, with the county s growth rate accelerating while the state s growth rate continued to trend downward. Projecting forward from 2010, the BEBR Medium estimate maintains the county s relatively higher growth rate as a starting position and then trends the county s rate downward in a way that suggests parity with the state ss growth rate sometime beyond the 2040 planning timeframe. By locking in the (relatively) higher growth rate experienced by Hillsborough from 2000 to 2010 and only gradually setting Hillsborough County s growth rate to intercept with the state s, the BEBR Medium projection implies a structural shift in how statewide population growth will be allocated going forward. Otherwise, Hillsborough County could regress to the mean or resume its status as growing more slowly than the state on average. Figure 1: Comparison of Historical and Projected Hillsborough County and Florida Growth Rates 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hillsborough Growth Rate Florida Growth Rate DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 4

9 Figure 2: Comparison of Historical and Projected Hillsborough County, Florida, and Key Metro Growth Rates 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hillsborough Growth Rate Orange Florida Growth Rate Dade, Broward, Palm Beach To better understand the shift implied by the Hillsborough County forecast, it is helpful to look at the history and forecasts of other metropolitan counties. Figure Y adds the combined growth rates for Miami Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties to the graph as well as the historical and projected growth for Orange County. From these data, the cause in the shift in Hillsborough County s projected growth rate relative to the state as a whole is apparent Southeast Florida can no longer absorb the statewidee demand in the way it did prior to the 1980s, and other counties are expected to grow more quickly relative to the state as a result. More explicitly, the seven most populous counties Miami Dade, than 50 percent of the state s total population. Of these Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas, and Duval accou unt for more dominant, metro counties, the three Southeast Florida counties and Pinellas County are very nearly out of vacant, developablee land. Conventional wisdom suggestss that this infill and redevelopment is more costly and harder to mass produce than the greenfield development that has dominated Florida since the 1950s, and, therefore, these counties will not grow as quickly going forward as they did in the past. Assuming that the statewide growth forecast is correct, the impact off this is thatt Hillsborough and Orange counties, as well as other Tampa Bay, Southwest, and Central Florida counties such as Lee, Polk, and Pasco, will absorbb a proportionally greater share of Florida s growth than was the case prior to While this macro level analysis suggests that Hillsborough County will maintain the posture established from 2000 to 2010 and grow at a faster rate than the state going forward, other considerations suggest that a more moderate growth rate is likely. One such factor is the extent to which the development of residential estate housing outside of the urban servicess boundary is cost feasible. If the higher land and horizontal infrastructure costs of this development form, compared with small lot single family detached development, cannot be sustained by the market, the demand for housing assumed by the BEBR Medium forecast may not be satisfied. With only the remaining land within the urban services boundary available for greenfield development, more development will be DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 5

10 concentrated in the urban centers; however, as with the Southeast Florida case, this development will occur more slowly than the growth rates estimated in the BEBR Medium estimate. For this reason, an average of the BEBR Low and BEBR Medium estimates may be more appropriate. Along similar lines, growth allocated for the Tampa Bay region by the BEBR Medium forecast may shift between counties in the region. The combined 2040 BEBR Medium forecast for Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco counties is approximatel y 3,477,000 persons, reflecting a projected increasee of approximately 866,500. However, the growth forecasts likely to be promulgated as part of Pinellas and Pasco s LRTPs are more aggressive than the BEBR Medium forecasts for those counties and combined account for 656,000 new persons. If growth in these two counties is balanced between the BEBR High that these counties are forecasting with their default (BEBR Medium forecasts), then the remainder of the BEBR Medium forecast for the region again puts Hillsborough County at an average between BEBR Low and BEBR Medium. From the perspectivee of employment growth, Hillsborough County is expected to continue as the principal employment center in the region and, as the county grows in population, it is normal for the ratio of jobs to population to increase somewhat. However, as the Pasco County SR 54 Corridor and Pinellas County Gandy Gateway areas become more competitive, a greater share of the region s jobs may accrue to these counties especially without action to facilitate the development of additional employment centers within Hillsborough County. Accordingly, two different employment projections are contemplated in the alternativee scenario forecasts: A business as usual employment forecast thatt increases the number of jobs by approximately 382,000 from A New Job Centers employment forecast that modifies the urban services boundary to provide for intensive employment development opportunities near interstates/interchanges that increases the number of jobs by nearly 434,000 over the same period. These different control total assumptions were used as the basis forr the three Alternative Futures discussed below. Additional information regarding the Alternative Futures Forecasts is provided in Chapter 3 of this report. Summary of the Scenarios Each of the Alternative Futures describes a possible future for Hillsborugh County. Different areas of emphasis were identified for each one. Table 3 compares different aspects of each vision. Table 3: Summary of Scenarios Scenario Population A: Outward Growth Employment B: Infill and Population Redevelopment Employment Population C: Job Centers Employment ,229, ,400 1,229, ,400 1,226, , ,823,200 1,094,138 1,631,750 1,094,138 1,631,750 1,145,195 Growth 593, , , , , ,795 Outward Growth (A) is primarily low density residential growth with employment spread across the county. This vision, because it tends towards low density residential development, will consume the most agricultural and rural land of the three. Infill and Redevelopment (B) is a much higher density approach to residential development, occuring closer to the urban centers. Employment occurs primarilyy in the existing economic centers. These DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 6

11 factors result in little demand to expand the Urban Servicee Area boundary and agricultural and rural lands are protected. New Job Centers on Major Corridors (C) envisions somewhatt denser residential development with most new jobs created in identified job centers. There may be a moderate need to expand the Urban Service Area boundary around the Interstate and interchanges to accommodate these centers. Because much of the residential growth will continue in a suburban pattern, some agricultural and rural lands will consumed by development. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 7

12 2.0 Methodolo ogy 2.1 Methodology Overview This section describess the methodology of the Land Usee Allocation tool and how population and employment were allocated when special circumstances did not require manual intervention. This methodology applies to all three scenarios. Any differencess in application of the methodology will be noted in the appropriate section. Forecast Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Data This methodology was used to develop the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 population and employment forecasts at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. The forecast of population and employment includedd the three standard Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) employment categories: Industrial, Commercial, and Service. Once the forecasts of the three standard employment categories are complete, this information will be included in the travel demand model to predict travel patterns. FDOT is currently developing an Activity Based Model (ABM), which is more refined in that it predicts when specific activities occur for individuals such as work, shopping, leisure, etc. and allows for trip chaining travel patterns to be forecasted. The three employment categories will be expanded into the nine used for the moree refined ABM. Control totals of countywide employment by category were developed from the methodology and results described in previous sections of this report. The base of the population andd employment data forecasts was a 2010 population and employment data file developed by FDOT. Population and employment growth was allocated to the TAZ level based on the TAZ s anticipated propensity to accommodate or attract development. This methodology is described in the following sections. The 2010 TAZ zonal structure is illustrated in Map 1. Map 1: Hillsborough County Traffic Analysis Zones DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 8

13 2.2 Greenfield Forecasting Procedures Using the approved control totals for population and employment, the initial allocation of population, dwelling units, and employment for the Industrial, Service and Commercial categories was made using the methodology discussed previously. This included an allocation for approved development and an allocation to vacant lands. Vacant Developable Lands Methodology The first step in determining a TAZ s growth potential was too quantify the amount of vacant developable acres by Future Land Use category. This was done using information from the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser's files. Land was determined to be vacant by the Department of Revenue (DOR) code. In addition, single residential parcels greater than five acres were also considered as vacant due to the potential for being subdividedd into additional residential parcels for development in the future. When this occurred, the parcel was treated as partially vacant and available for development even though it had a structure on it. Once the vacant land by TAZ was determined, the following adjustments were made to calculate the total developable land by Future Land Use Category: Roadway right of way acreage was removed. Government owned properties were removed. Conservation and environmentally sensitive areas were removed. Wetlands were removed based on the National Wetlands Inventory maintained by the U.S.. Fish & Wildlife Service. The adjustments resulted in the vacant developable acres by Future Land Use category by TAZ. Appendix A contains a listing of the vacant developable acress by TAZ and Future Land Use Category. Estimated land use densities and multiplier factors were applied to unoccupied developable land based on what is expected to reasonably occur. The factors were applied as many land use categories do not develop at their maximum allowable levels. For example, iff a specific TAZ has 10 acres of unoccupied developable land designated for residential usess at an approved density of 2 dwelling units per acre and a multiplier factor of 80%, the maximum allowable number of new dwelling units for this TAZ is 16 dwelling units. Employment intensities were applied to developable acreage of land uses that generate employees (commercial, industrial, and service) ). If there was a mix of uses allowed in the Future Land Use category assumptions for a particular parcel, assumptions were made related to the make up a mix of uses. of land uses. The percentages differ based on the different land use categories that allow From this information, allowable employee growth was estimated. Land use densities were obtained from the Countywide Future Land Use Plan and Hillsborough County and Jurisdictional staff, as well as from the relationship of general land use densities provided in the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (7th Edition). These densities and intensitiess are illustrated in Appendix A. The land use densities contained in the Countywide Future Land Use Plan were adjusted to reflect existing built out densitiess within Hillsborough County. Reduction factors were applied to reflect more reasonable densities, as frequently parcels are not built out to the maximum allowable densities. The maximum development for each TAZ was estimated by adding the allowable growth to the existing land use components (from 2010 county population, dwelling units, and employment categories). The maximum development was used to determine if the allocated growth was physically possible within the TAZ. If the growth was not possible, the model reallocated it to other TAZs. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 9

14 Population and Employment Allocation Methodology The allocation methodology for population and employment to vacant developable lands was accomplished using a multi step process that culminated in the allocation of growth based on the results of a gravity model. The process used to complete the allocation to vacantt developablee land is illustrated in Figure 3. The gravity model distributes growth based on the mass (or attractiveness) of a TAZ multiplied by the mass of an activity centroid divided by the square of the distance between the two. The results of the TAZ distribution were reviewed in several meetings with staff from the Hillsborough MPO, Hillsborough County, and staff from the local municipalities. Where appropriate, adjustments were made to individual TAZs based on the feedback receivedd from staff. Figure 3: Land Use Allocation Process Identification of Planning Areas and Centroids The County is delineated into 25 Planning Areas developed byy Hillsborough County staff. Planning Areas represent a set of TAZs that have been grouped together based on a number of factors: Hillsborough County Planning Areas City boundaries City of Tampa Impact Fee Districts These Planning Areas are illustrated in Map 2. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 10

15 Map 2: Hillsborough County Planning Areas Activity centroids were developed for each Planning Area for dwelling units and for industrial, commercial, and service employment. The activity centroids were found by weighting each geographical center of each TAZ by these land use components (dwelling units and industrial, commercial, and service employment) within the Planning Area for the year Stated another way, each TAZ has its own weighted centroid for each category. Centroids were calculated for each Planning Area based on the location of the existing units, which relates to population, as well as for each of the three employment categories based on the weighted centroids for each TAZ. The weighted geographical centers of each TAZ were then combined to find the center of mass for each Planning Area for population and the individual employment categories. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 11

16 Thus, the centroid of the Planning Area does not represent the geographical center of the area, but, rather, a more realistic center based on the existing concentration of each land use component. Generally, these centroids represent locations of existing urbanized development or locations that will likely become more urbanized in the future. Due to the concentric allocation procedure, it was not necessary to redefine regions or centroids for each planningg year of the socioeconomic data sets. The allocation methodology simulates compact growth patterns from the centroid of the Planning Area outward. Calculation of Attractiveness Index As mentioned previously, the Land Use Allocation Model was based on the gravity model. An attractiveness index was found for each TAZ and divided by the sum of all the Attractiveness Indexes for each TAZ. This ratio was then multiplied by the growth increment forr the specific year to determine the quantity of growth to allocate to each TAZ. If the sum of existing development plus the allocated growth exceeded the maximum development in the TAZ, then the model reallocated the growth to other TAZs. The maximum allowable development in a TAZ can be exceeded by applying a manual adjustment within the spreadsheet. The Attractiveness Index is described in further detail in the Appendix. Distribution of Growth to Traffic Analysis Zones For the purposes of this analysis only the permanent population residents living in the region for more than six months per year was forecasted. Permanent population includes Household population and Group Quarters population. The U.S. Census Bureau defines Household population as all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. A housing unit, according to the U.S. Census Bureau is: a house, an apartment, a mobile home or trailer, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied as separate living quarters, or if vacant, intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from any other individuals in the building and which have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall.... The U.S. Census Bureau also describes: all people not living in households as living in group quarters. There are two types of group quarters: institutional (for example, correctional facilities, nursing homes, and mental hospitals) and non institutional (for example, college dormitories, military barracks, group homes, missions, and shelters). Attention is directed to the fact that seasonal populationn is includedd in the transportation model through adjustments to the dwelling unit vacancy rates. Staff from the Planning Commission, Hillsborough County, and from the local municipalities reviewed the initial projections. This was accomplished with interactive work sessions using a series of maps illustrating the growth increment in dwelling units, and service, commercial, and industrial employment for each planning year horizon. Allocation of Population and Employment to Traffic Analysiss Zones Based on the control totals and maximum allowable development forr each TAZ, dwelling units and employment were allocated to each TAZ. The allocation wass based on an iterative process that uses an attractiveness index in combination with how close the TAZ is to the Planning Area s centroid. This DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 12

17 process simulates compact urban development by first allocating growth to, or filling, TAZs closest to each Planning Area s centroid. Manual adjustments or overrides to the allocation processs were then made, as necessary, to reflect projected growth in areas approved for large scale developments such ass DRIs and Master Planned Unit Developments (MPUD). The resulting allocations were subsequently converted into socioeconomicc data sets. Allocation of School Enrollment The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished manually. The base year data for the population and school enrollment (private schools, public schools, and community colleges) was the 2010 Hillsborough County school enrollment file provided by FDOT. School enrollment was determinedd as a percent of total population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population. Allocation of Hotel and Motel Units The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished d manually. The base year data for the hotel/motel units was a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population. The service employment control total includes future school and hotel employees. 2.3 Redevelopment Forecasting Procedures In addition to allocations to vacant developable lands, commercial and service employment growth also was allocated based on the potential for redevelopment. For the purposes of this analysis, redevelopment is considered a change in land use that results in changess in land use type (residential to commercial employment for example) or an intensification of existing land uses. The redevelopment allocation methodology is a multi step allocation procedure based on data available from the Hillsborough County MPO and the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser. The redevelopment methodology starts with a dataa file containing records for each parcel in Hillsborough County. These files were modified to identify land use types and TAZs. A query was tabulated to remove all vacant lands from the file since allocations of employment growth to vacant developable lands were completed using a separate methodology. The remaining records included only developed parcels. For each of these developed parcels, a Redevelopment Propensity Indexx (RPI) was calculated based on the criteria summarized in Figure 4. The RPI is an index score value thatt weights criteria related to the age of structures, the relationship between the value of structures and the value of the property, and access to major transportation facilities and services. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 13

18 Figure 4: Redevelopment Propensity Index Criteria The RPI calculation started with a selection of all developed parcels with structures 25 years or older Hillsborough County. The acreage was split up into four quantiles based on their RPI score (highest to lowest). A cross tabulation analysiss was performed to tabulate the number of acres by TAZ by quantile RPI score for dwelling units, commercial employees, and service employees. For each quantile range, a weightingg factor (25%, 10%, 5%, and 0%) was developed for use in calculating the percentage of the total acres that would be considered for redevelopment within a quantile. For the highest quantile, 25% of the acres were considered as having a high propensity to redevelop. The second and third quantiles, 10% and 5% of the acres, respectively, were considered as having a highh propensity to redevelop. No acres (0% weighting) from the lowest quantile range (lowestt propensity to redevelop) were included as having propensity to redevelop. The total number of acres with a propensity to redevelop from each quantile was summed by TAZ. The number of dwelling units and employees to be allocated based on redevelopment potential were allocated to TAZ based on each TAZ s percentage share of the total acres with a propensity to redevelop. 2.4 Center Forecasting Approach (Infill and Redevelopment and Job Centers) The centers forecast approach represents either policy or desired development objectives. In both cases targeted growth is the goal in identified areas is the goal. As such, based on the review of plans and guidance from MPO staff, employment and population weree allocated to the appropriate center areas, reflecting the desired emphasis on residential development or job growth. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 14

19 Infill and Redevelopment The Infill and Redevelopment Alternative Future was developed to reflect a vision of Hillsborough County that integrates future development with a multimodal transportation network. As such, a large portion of the development was directed to station areas identified by MPO staff based on prior work and in amounts that were in agreement with the County s Future Land Use plan. Job Centers The Job Centers Alternative Future was developed to analyze a future reflecting an emphasis on economicc development and job creation. To assist in this analysis, jobs were added to areas of economic emphasis that had been previously identified by studies or byy MPO staff. 2.5 School Enrollment The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished manually. The base year data for hotel/ motel units came from a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population and allocated to TAZs based on the future land use patterns in the county. For the Outward Growth and Infill and Redevelopment Alternative Futures, the student enrollment and resulting service employment totals were developed based on the 2010 population and student enrollment totals. School enrollment and the resulting service employment for the Jobs Centers Alternative Future were developed using a slightly higher to reflect the increased emphasis on education required to support the emphasis on jobs. Table 4 illustrates the school enrollment and service employment totals for all three scenarios. Table 4: 2010 School Enrollment and Employment Control Totals Total household population 1,207,161 Total employment 711,400 K 12 enrollment 218,231 K 12 employees 17,001 K 12 student/employee ratio Higher education enrollment 84,863 Higher education employment 17,387 Higher education student/employee ratio Hotel/Motel Units The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished d manually. The base year data for the hotel/motel units came from a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population and allocated to TAZs based on the future land use patterns in the county. 2.7 Review and Adjustment Process The socioeconomic data development process was supported by a series of interactive review workshops and meetings conducted by the consultant with staff from the Planning Commission, Hillsborough County, and local municipalities in the county. During thesee workshops, control totals and zone by zone data forecasts were reviewed. Adjustments, such as revising employment numbers in TAZs DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 15

20 that are areas of economic emphasis or reducing the percentage of industrial jobs forecast for 2040, were made to the forecasts to better support the representative alternative scenario. 2.8 Conversion of Forecast Data to Travel Demand Model Inputs Input into the four step model requires the conversion from three employment categories to five as shown in Table 5. Both Commercial and Service employmentt can be broken down into regional and local segments; local service includes school employment. They can be categorized this way because generally, the trips generated by each type of employment have certain characteristics, making it short or longer distance. Zones with higher growth tend to be more regional in nature meaning the employees may travel further to and from work. Table 5: Conversion from 3 to 5 Employment Categories 3 Categories Industrial 5 Categories No split Commercial Service Regional Commercial Regional Service Local Commercial Local Service DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 16

21 3.0 Scenario Forecasts 3.1 Scenario Overview As described earlier in this report, the Hillsborough County MPO, along with the consultant team, developedd three different visions of how the county could develop. These Alternative Futures reflect three different ways that population, employment, and transportationn related improvements could occur by the year Outward Growth is the trend or business as usual scenario and forecasts growth based on current land use policy. Residential growth continues to be mostly single land. Infrastructure investment is focused primarily on family suburban development on formerly agricultural new roadways, roadway widening, and congestion management. The Urban Service Boundary and, along with it, water and sewer systems may have to be expanded to accommodate the growth. The automobile is the primary mode of transportation. Infill and Redevelopme nt Focused around Transit assumes thatt travel patterns will change withh the development of a more robust transportation system that will encouragee redevelopment of land closer to urban centers. The Urban Servicee Area boundary is maintained as new population is accommodated near activity centers and transportation hubs. In addition to roadway investment, the County invests in additional bus and rail transit options. Jobs are added to existing employment centers, and neighborhood ds are located closer to major destinations, encouraging the use of all transportation modes and shorter commute distances and time. New Job Centers on Major Corridors reflects ann approach more oriented to developing concentrated areas of employment around the county. While primarily within the Urban Service Area boundary, employment centers were identified along I 4 and in Plant City. Thesee new economic areas allow for diversity in employment, targeting sectors such as biotechnology and clean manufacturing. Population growth would be located mostly with the Urban Servicee Area boundary and near these centers and would be accommodated in a more urban growth pattern with some traditional suburban growth. 3.2 Outward Growth Alternative Future Trend Forecast (A) This Alternative Future assumes a development pattern similar to the last 25 years, with mostly new suburban style communities built on previously undeveloped land. Redevelopment and rehabilitation of existing buildings, as well as urban infill, would continue to occur in limited amounts in Tampa and in surrounding older communities. This businesss as usual development scenario forecasts population and employment through 2040 if no major changes to land use policy and development regulations are implemented. This forecast was developed using the BEBR mediumm population projection and a reduced number of jobs. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 17

22 Guiding Principles The development of this scenario was guided primarily byy the following principles: the county will experience significant population growth, it is part of a fast growth region, and this growth will be shared. Methodology and Assumptions For this scenario, MPO staff decided to use the BEBR Medium population forecast and reduce the number of jobs in the county. Table 6 includes population and employment projections for this scenario. Table 6: Outward Growth Alternative Future: Countywide Population and Employment Totals Growth Household population Group quarters population Total population Total employees Employment/population ratio 1,207,161 22,065 1,229, ,400 59% 1,515,324 27,776 1,543, ,834 63% 1,790,382 32,818 1,823,200 1,094,138 63% 583,221 11, , ,738 Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March. Total employment was broken out into Industrial, Commercial, and Service employment categories. These control totals are also based on a ratio to total employment and follow statewide and national trends. Consistent with these trends, more employment is expected to occur in the Service sector, with a reduction in the Industrial sector. Industrial employment (manufacturing, warehousing, etc.) is assumed to decrease as a percentage of total employment, but will still grow by more than 62,228 employees by 2040 (equaling approximately 20 percent of employment in 2040). Commercial employment (retail, restaurants, etc.) is also forecasted too decrease slightly as a percentage of total employment but will also grow by more than 64,945 employees (equaling approximately 18 percent of employment in 2040) ). The Service employment sector (e.g., educational, medical, and professional services) is forecasted to increase as a percentage of total employment and will add more than 255,566 employees (equaling approximately 62 percent of employment in 2040). Outward Growth: Population and Employment Control Totals The MPO staff and stakeholders determined that the BEBR Medium forecasted population reasonably reflected the current trend of county growth. This Alternative Future also assumes a lower proportion of employment growth. Table 6 presents the recommendedd population and employment forecasts for Hillsborough County. It is forecasted that Hillsborough County s 2040 permanent household population will be 1,790,382 persons with an employment total of approximately 1,094,138 employees. This represents an increase in population of 583,221 persons and employment of 382,739 persons from 2010 to The forecasted population and employment for Hillsborough County from 2010 to represents a growth of about 48 percent for population and almost 53 percent for employment. Table 6 also includes the employment/population ratio with is assumed to increase inn the first half of this study period and then level out. Outward Growth: Employment Control Totals The employment control totals were developedd based on a total employee to population ratio and the assumption that unemployment will decrease and stabilize att five percent. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 18

23 Total employment was broken out into Industrial, Commercial, and Service employment categories. These control totals are also based on a ratio to total employment and follow statewide and national trends. Consistent with these trends, more employment is expected to occur in the Service sector with a reduction in the Industrial sector. Industrial employment (manufacturing,, warehousing, etc.) is assumed to decrease as a percentage of total employment, but will still grow by more than 62,,228 employees by 2040 (around 20% of employment in 2040). Commercial employment ( retail, restaurants, etc.) is also forecasted to decrease slightly as a percentagee of total employment but will also grow by more than 64,945 employees (around 18% of employment in 2040). The Service employment sector (e.g. educational, medical, and professional services), is forecasted to increase as a percentage of total employment and will add more than 255,566 employees (around 62% of employment in 2040). Table 7 summarizes the employment forecast by employee type. The employment types include industrial, commercial, and service employment. Table 7: Outward Growth Alternative Future: Countywide Employment Control Totals by Employment Type Growth Total employees Industrial employees Commercial employees Service employees Industrial/total employee ratio Commercial/total employee ratio Service/ /total employee ratio 711, , , ,800 22% 19% 59% 940, , , ,909 21% 18% 61% 1,094, , , ,366 20% 18% 62% 382,738 62,,228 64,, ,566 Table 8 summarizes the cumulative population and employment totals over the next 30 years. Table 8: Cumulative Growth, Growth Total population Total employees Industrial employees Commercial employees Service employees 1,228,, , , , ,800 1,823,200 1,094, ,, ,, ,, , , ,228 64, , 566 Outward Growth: School Enrollment and Hotel/ Motel Control Totals School enrollment and hotel/motel units were determined ass a percent of total population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population. It is forecast that school enrollment for the 2040 Hillsborough County kindergarten through 12 th grade, including enrollment for both public and private schools, will be approximately 308,596, an increase of 48 percent. Higher education enrollment is forecasted for 2040 at approximately 118,165 students, an increase of 39 percent. Table 9 summarizes the school enrollment forecasts for the Outward Growth alternative future. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 19

24 Table 9: School Enrollment Totals Growth K 12 enrollment Higher education enrollment Total school enrollment 218,231 84, , , , , ,828 33, ,130 Table 10 summarizess the recommended hotel/motel unit forecasts for Hillsborough County. It is forecasted that there will 2,569 additional units in Hillsborough County by 2040, a 55 percent increase. Table 10: Hotel/Motell Unit Control Totals Growth Hotel/motel units 22,965 35,808 12, Outward Growth Population and Employment Forecast Results Maps documenting the distribution of population and employment growth are provided as noted below (in Appendix C). Tables documenting the forecast to Traffic Analysis Zone are providedd in Appendix C. Figure 4, Outward Growth Household Population Color Figure 5, Outward Growth Household Population Dot Density Figure 6, Outward Growth Total Employment Color Figure 7, Outward Growth Total Employment Dot Densityy Figure 8, Outward Growth Commercial Employment Color Figure 9, Outward Growth Commercial Employment Dot Density Figure 10, Outward Growth Industrial Employment Color Figure 11, Outward Growth Industrial Employment Dot Density Figure 12, Outward Growth Service Employment Color Figure 13, Outward Growth Service Employment Dot Density 3.3 Alternative Future: Infill and Redevelopment Focused around Transit (B) In this alternative, redevelopment of parcels and infill in areas already developed would be the primary means of accommodating new jobs and population growth. This development pattern would be primarily urban, with an emphasis on activity centers and transportation hubs. The Urban Servicee Area might be expanded in select areas but would stay largely intact. Employment growth would be focused primarily in existing centers. Guiding Principles The development of this scenario was guided by the following principles: : growth would occur primarily around areas with transit potential and the county would develop a robust multi modal transportation system. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 20

25 Methodology and Assumptions For this scenario, MPO staff decided to reduce the countywide population, as well as the number of jobs in the county. Table 11 includes population and employment projections for this scenario. Total employment was broken out into Industrial, Commercial, and Service employment categories. These control totals are also based on a ratio to total employment and follow statewide and national trends. Consistent with these trends, more employment is expected to occur in the Service sector, with a reduction in the Industrial sector. Industrial employment (manufacturing, warehousing, etc.) is assumed to decrease as a percentage of total employment, but will still grow by more than 62,228 employees by 2040 (equaling approximately 20% of employment in 2040). Commercial employment (retail, restaurants, etc.) is also forecasted to decreasee slightly as a percentagee of total employment but will also grow by more than 64,945 employees (equaling approximately 18% of employment in 2040). Thee Service employment sector (e.g., educational, medical, and professional services) is forecasted to increase as a percentage of total employment and will add more than 255,566 employees (equaling approximately 62% of employment in 2040). Table 11: Infill and Redevelopm ment Focused Around Transit: Population and Employment Forecast Projections Household 1,207,616 1,251,608 1,339,006 1,424,440 1,492,836 1,551,5111 1,602,3799 population Group quarters 22,065 22,942 24,544 26,110 27,364 28,439 29,372 population Total population 1,229,226 1,274,550 1,363,550 1,450,550 1,520,200 1,579,950 1,631,7500 Total employees 711, , , ,834 1,000,153 1,049,5355 1,094,1388 Employment/ 59% 60% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% population ratio Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 21

26 Table 12: Infill and Redevelopm ent Focused Around Transit: Employment Totals by Type Total employees Industrial employees Commercial employees Service employees Industrial/total employee ratio Commercial/total employee ratio Service/ /total employee ratio 711, , , ,800 22% 19% 59% 785, , , ,180 22% 19% 59% 877, , , ,397 21% 19% 60% 940, , , ,909 21% 18% 61% 1,000, , , ,093 21% 18% 61% 1,049, , , ,712 20% 18% 61% 1,094, , , ,366 20% 18% 61% Infill and Redevelopment: Population and Employment Control Totals This scenario is exploring a future for Hillsborough County that is focused on filling in the development pattern, rather than expanding it. This filling in of remaining parcels and the redevelopment of land closer to the transit system is anticipated to help slow the demand to develop outward. Accordingly, in this analysis, approximately 40 percent of the growth anticipated over the next 30 years was added to areas thatt were identified by MPO staff as having transit potential. This additional population would be accommodated primarily by redevelopment of land in the station areas. The redevelopment of land in TAZs identified for potential transit accounts for approximately 20 percent of the allocation of population. Infill and Redevelopment: School Enrollment In this scenario, school enrollment was determined as a percent of totall population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population. It is forecast that school enrollment for the 2040 Hillsborough County kindergarten through 12 th grade, including enrollment for both public and private schools, will be approximately 290,031, an increase of 33 percent. Higher education enrollment is forecasted for 2040 at approximately 105,757 students, ann increase of 25 percent. The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished manually. The base year data for the population and school enrollment (private schools, public schools, and community colleges) was the 2010 Hillsborough County school enrollment file provided by FDOT. School enrollment was determinedd as a percent of total population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population with an emphasis on the TAZs identified for population growth. Table 13 summarizes the recommended school enrollment forecasts for Hillsborough County. Table 13: School Enrollment Totals 2010 K 12 enrollment 218,231 Higher education 84,863 enrollment Total school enrollment 303, , , ,7888 Growth 71,800 20,894 92,694 DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 22

27 Infill and Redevelopment: Hotel and Motel Units The distribution of hotel and motel units was accomplished manually. The base year data for the hotel/motel units was a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population and allocated to TAZs with an emphasis on the TAZs identified for population growth. Table 14 summarizes the recommended hotel/motel unit forecasts for Hillsborough County. It is forecasted that there will 2,569 additional unitss in Hillsborough County by 2040, a 55 percent increase. Table 14: Hotel/Motell Unit Control Totals Growth Hotel/motel units 22,965 32, 048 9, Infill and Redevelopment Focused around Transit Population and Employment Forecast Results Maps documenting the distribution of population and employment growth are provided as noted below (in Appendix C). Tables documenting the forecast to Traffic Analysis Zone are providedd in Appendixx C. Figure 14, Infill and Redevelopment Household Population Color Figure 15, Infill and Redevelopment Household Population Dot Density Figure 16, Infill and Redevelopment Total Employment Color Figure 17, Infill and Redevelopment Total Employment Dot Density Figure 18, Infill and Redevelopment Commercial Employment Color Figure 19, Infill and Redevelopment Commercial Employment Dott Density Figure 20, Infill and Redevelopment Industrial Employment Color Figure 21, Infill and Redevelopment Industrial Employment Dot Density Figure 22, Infill and Redevelopment Service Employment Color Figure 23, Infill and Redevelopment Service Employment Dot Density 3.4 Alternative Future: New Job Centers on Major Corridors (C) This alternative focuses on economic development and job growth within the urban service boundary, but also explores expansion to areas outside the urban core. These new economic areas allow for diversity in employment targeting sectors such as biotechnology, medicine, computer industries, and clean manufacturing. Population growth would be located mostly within the Urban Service Area boundary with some growth occurring near these new economic centers. 3.5 Methodology and Assumptions As mentioned, countywide control totals are the basis for the socioeconomic data analysis. For this scenario, MPO staff decided to reduce the countywide population, but because of the emphasis on jobs, maintain the jobs totals at BEBR medium population levels. Table 15 includes population and employment projections for this scenario. DRAFT 8/ /15/ Page 23