Indonesia Recent Economic Development, Challenges and Policy Response Mirza Adityaswara Senior Deputy Governor

Transcription

1 Indonesia Recent Economic Development, Challenges and Policy Response Mirza Adityaswara Senior Deputy Governor April 4 th 2018

2 # Bank Indonesia CF WEO 2016 Feb 18 Jan 17 Jan' WORLD AE US Euro Japan EM China India WTV Oil (USD per barel)* IHex LIBOR 3 month

3 * CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AT PRUDENT LEVEL 3 The current account deficit improved over the last five years and is expected to stay within safe limits below 3% of GDP in 2018 % GDP Full Year CAD E ,

4 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT COMPARISON 4 % GDP ID -1.7 TH PH -0.1 SG MA TR Source: bloomberg

5 5 Mar Headline CPI % 3.02% 3.35% Core % 3.07% 3.95% Volatile Food (VF) Adm. Prices (AP) % 5.92% 4.84% % 0.21% 0.39% (10.00) CPI Core VF AP * Provisional figure, ** very provisional figure, ***(e) forecast

6 29 ACEH 4,19 SUMUT 5,12 RIAU 2,71 SUMBAR 5,29 JAMBI 4,64 BENGKULU 4,99 KEP. RIAU 2,01 SUMSEL 5,51 LAMPUNG 5,17 KEP. BABEL 4,51 DKI 6,22 BANTEN 5,71 JABAR 5,29 KALBAR 5,17 KALTENG 6,74 JATENG 5,27 JATIM 5,45 DIY 5,26 4 KALSEL 5,29 BALI 5,59 KALTIM 3,13 SULBAR 6,67 SULSEL 7,23 NTB 0,11 KALTARA 6,46 6,17 GORONTALO 6,74 SULTENG 7,14 NTT 5,16 SULTRA 6,81 SULUT 6,32 MALUT 7,67 PAPBAR 4,01 MALUKU 5,81 PAPUA 4,64 Source: BPS PDRB 7,0% 6,0% PDRB < 7,0% 5,0% PDRB < 6,0% 4,0% PDRB < 5,0% 0% PDRB < 4,0% PDRB < 0%

7 % # 0.0 Source : IMF Indonesia Malaysia India China Brazil Turkey France UK US

8 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan Feb'18 8 Liquidity Ratio Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) AL/NCD AL/DPK (RHS) % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% % 45.84% % NPL Gross & Coverage Ratio NPL (%) Coverage Ratio% (rhs) Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) As of Jan 18

9 Monetary Transmission 1. Monetary Policy Policy Rate Reserve Requirement BI Rate cut of 25bps (Feb) Lowering RR by 50bps to 7.5% (Nov) Policy Rate cuts of 150bps Moving from BI Rate (12 month) to BI 7- day Reverse Repo Rate (Aug) Further lowering RR by 100bps to 6.5% (Feb) BI 7-day RR Rate cut of 25bps to 4.50% (Aug) Further BI 7-day RR Rate cut of 25 bps to 4.25% (Sept) Implementation of RR Averaging (Aug): RR fixed 5%; RR Averaging 1.5% Policy Rate 200 bps (Jan 16 Sept 17) Lending Rate (Jan 16 Jan 18) 151 bps (11.32%) Lending (Jan 17 Jan 18 (LBU) Total Rp319 T (7.40% yoy) RR 150 bps (Dec 15 Mar 16) Deposit Rate (Jan 16 Jan 18) 196 bps (5.98%) Deposit (Jan 17 Jan 18 (LBU) Total Rp403 T (8.36% yoy) 2. Exchange Rate Policy 3. Macroprudential Policy Market-based exchange rate stability consistent with fundamental Dual intervention in the FX market and purchases of government bonds from secondary market in time of distress (capital reversal) or large mis-alignment Relaxation of LTV for property and automotive loans (June) Further relaxation of LTV for property loans (Sept) Strengthening systemic surveillance & Crisis Management Protocol (April) Initiative to issue macroprudential regulation on Financing to Funding Ratio (FFR) Impacts of LTV Relaxation Loan Growth % (yoy) Des-16 Des-17 Construction Real Estate Housing Total Payment System Policy Obligation to use IDR in domestic transaction (March) Non-cash movement (GNNT) E-money for social transfer (Nov) Financial Technology (FinTech) Office (Nov) New Rupiah issuance (Dec) National Payment Gateway (June) Modernized cash management underway

10 # ,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16, Rp/USD % Exchange rate BI Policy Rate

11 12 Forecasted Transaction value (Increasing by 16.13%)* Actor (Growing by 34.29%)** B B Source: Data Statista *Transaction Value 99% are related to digital payment, 0.11% to personal finance and 0.08% to Business Finance Projection of transaction value (statista, 2018) 126% MOBILE PHONE Ratio to adult population (Jan'16) 1 Source: 1 Kominfo, 2016; 2 APJII, 2016; 3 BPS, 2013; 4 Kementerian KUKM, 2016 dan BI, CNN 51,8% INTERNET user ratio to adult population (Nov 16) 2 YOUNG GENERATION (10-29 year) 3 26,4% (2010) 24,9% (2016) (estimation) SME Total 59,2 million unit Share 60,34% Total PDB

12 13 INNOVATION Stimulate innovation in financial sector for economic advancement. RISK MITIGATION Reduce risk, support the principle of prudence, and apply customer protection principle in order to be in line with innovation and technology. Maintain a balance between innovation and risk

13 14 Financial Technology Office Regulation on Payment Transaction Processing Regulation on National Payment Gateway Regulation on AML/CFT for Non-Bank FI Regulation on Financial Technology Regulatory Sandbox Nov 2016 Des 2016 Jul 2017 Sept 2017 Nov 2017 Nov 2017

14 # Family Hope Program (Program Keluarga Harapan - PKH) The Family Hope Program (PKH) is a program that provides cash to very poor households. Rp 1,89 million /year will be granted for each household. PKH will be granted every February, May, August, and November. As of December 2017, PKH is distributed to 6,0 million households on non-cash basis. PKH will be expanded to 10 million households in 514 regencies/cities in Non Cash Food Assistance (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai - BPNT) BPNT is a poverty alleviation and social protection program that is managed by the central government. It provides subsidized rice and eggs to low-income households. Rp 110 thousand/month will be granted for each household as BPNT that can be used in certain stores which called e-warong. As of December 2017, BPNT was distributed to 1,2 million households in 44 cities. BPNT will be expanded to 10 million households in 217 regencies/cities on the 25th of each month in 2018.

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16 Thank You 17