Society and Technology and the Silver Generation Workshop January 10th-12th, 2006 MIT-Germany Program - MIT Age Lab - DaimlerChrysler - Siemens

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1 Society and Technology and the Silver Generation Workshop January 10th-12th, 2006 MIT-Germany Program - MIT Age Lab - DaimlerChrysler - Siemens Dr. Frank Ruff DaimlerChryslerAG Society and Technology Research Group Berlin and Palo Alto

2 Society and Technology Research Group Locations Berlin Palo Alto (Kyoto) Network partners Europe USA Japan China Russia Latin America Interdisciplinary Economics Sociology Psychology Process Engineering Transportation Science Communications Science Urban/Regional Planning Business Administration Philosophy Physics Mechanical Engineering Mathematics Geography International Permanent staff from: Germany USA Russia Temporary staff: South East Asia Latin America Europe DaimlerChrysler Society and Technology Research Group 2

3 Society and Technology Research Group Mission Linking DaimlerChrysler and its markets with the big picture: STRG provides outsidein research and tailor-made services to support DC management with its strategic, market, and product planning Markets Customers Future Organisation Innovation Core competencies Development of future scenarios International business and market environment analysis Analysis of future customer needs Identification of opportunities and risks for products, services and processes Prospective evaluation of innovations DaimlerChrysler Society and Technology Research Group 3

4 STRG s work on Aging Societies: early warning and projects s Early warning Since 1999 Projects on customer and product requirements Since 2002 Projects on organizational change and HR DaimlerChrysler Society and Technology Research Group 4

5 Aging Societies: Multiple Challenges E.g., Clash of cultures E.g., Reform No. 16 Social security - Old-age pension - Health, nursing insurance E.g., Anti-aging medicine Migration - Immigration - Regional polarization E.g., New role models in old age Geopolitics - International migration - Global conflicts of interests Health - (Bio-)medicine - Health services E.g., Northeast v. southwest divide (in Germany) Lifestyles - Value systems - Individual needs E.g., Decreasing yields Politics - Balance of power - Interest groups World of work - Workforce structures - HR development E.g., Drop in innovation capabilities Financial markets - Savings activity - Capital flow - Yields E.g., Lobbies for older people E.g., Education for older people Technology - HMI/Usability - Enhancement Technologies Consumption/demand - Patterns of consumption - Winner / loser industries E.g., Permanently weak economy Economy - Labor market - Growth - Income Infrastructure - Education - Communication - Transport/mobility E.g., Silver markets E.g., Transgenerational design 5

6 Aging Societies: Geopolitics Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 6

7 Aging Societies: Politics Shifting majorities for reform of social security systems in aging society (Germany) Median age of electorate The increasing share of elderly voters has negative impacts on the capabilities of aging societies to support sustainable reforms, e.g. a shift from take-and-give systems to capital-based systems Associations of elderly people are already strong political forces in some countries (e.g. AARP in the U.S.) The political competition of parties for elderly voters will gain momentum Age of economic indifference of reform of social security system ( Riester Type capital-based) Source: DB Research 7

8 Aging Societies: Financial Markets Shrinking returns in capital markets of aging societies? Simulations show significant decreases in returns on capital investments and increasing exports of capital to markets with higher returns 8

9 Aging Societies: Economy Aging societies will have to face slow, zero or negative GDP growth Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 9

10 Aging Societies: World of Work The average age of workforces will increase in most branches and in the public sector, despite continuing periodical down sizings of companies by early retirement programs 10

11 Aging Societies: International Migration and (Intra-)Regional Polarisation International migration Aging societies will love and hate international migration of younger people Regional and local politics will have to deal with issues of age segregation Regional polarisation of age groups in Germany Decrease of people younger than 20 ys Growth of people older than 60 ys Source: Berlin Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung (2005) 11

12 Aging Societies: Infrastructure The aging of societies will entail a change in infrastructures Germany: The growth in individual motorized mobility will level off (but transport of goods will grow further) Primary, secondary and tertiary education infrastructures will have to adapt to demography Public infrastructures (e.g. leisure, culture, sports facilities) in many communities (rural, low employment) will be sustained by less tax payers and will be down-sized, privatized or abandoned 12

13 Aging Societies: Health The biomedical battle for active longevity Mutiny in God s Waiting-Room Source: GEO Wissen No. 30, 2002: New Paths in Medicine. p. 59 Spare Parts from the Lab Source: DER SPIEGEL, 30,

14 Aging Societies: Consumption and Demand Winners of demographic shift : Health (pharmaceuticals, biotech, medical technology, health care) Leisure, culture and education Tourism Financial Services Housing and home-related services Losers of demographic shift : Construction (new homes) Parts of consumer goods industries (e.g. tobacco, alcohol) Industries focused on kids, youth and families Entnommen aus: Produkte und Dienstleistungen für mehr Lebensqualität im Alter, Institut Arbeit und Technik, 2004, S

15 Aging Societies: Lifestyles Increasing diversity of lifestyles in elderly age groups ( third and fourth age ) Source: SIGMA, 2001, im Auftrag der DaimlerChrysler Forschung, RMI/Y Social status Social milieus in Germany Traditionelles bürgerliches Milieu 14% Etabliertes Milieu 9% Intellektuelles Milieu 10% Traditionelles Arbeitermilieu 6% Modernes bürgerliches Milieu 8% Statusorieniertes Milieu 15% Konsummaterialistisches Milieu 11% Modernes Arbeitnehmermilieu 8% Hedonistisches Milieu 11% Postmodernes Milieu 6% Values 15

16 Aging Societies: Technology (Scenario 2015) Diffusion of technologies with benefits for elderly people and everybody else Wellness seat (with adaptive heating and massage function) Car-Entertainer (e.g. music on demand) Fatigue sensor Dynamic route guidance Lane departure warning Windshield coated with nanoparticles Source of photo: OECD,

17 Aging Societies: Multiple Challenges E.g., Clash of cultures E.g., Reform No. 16 Social security - Old-age pension - Health, nursing insurance E.g., Anti-aging medicine Migration - Immigration - Regional polarization E.g., New role models in old age Geopolitics - International migration - Global conflicts of interests Health - (Bio-)medicine - Health services E.g., Northeast v. southwest divide (in Germany) Lifestyles - Value systems - Individual needs E.g., Decreasing yields Politics - Balance of power - Interest groups World of work - Workforce structures - HR development E.g., Drop in innovation capabilities Financial markets - Savings activity - Capital flow - Yields E.g., Lobbies for older people E.g., Education for older people Technology - HMI/Usability - Enhancement Technologies Consumption/demand - Patterns of consumption - Winner / loser industries E.g., Permanently weak economy Economy - Labor market - Growth - Income Infrastructure - Education - Communication - Transport/mobility E.g., Silver markets E.g., Transgenerational design 17

18 A good mix of ages and timing is crucial! Thank you for your attention! Employees over 30 years old Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Employees under 30 years old Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday At least they understand each other around the middle of the week 18