The Aging Population and Political Participation in Japan

Transcription

1 Challenges to Developing Country The Aging Population and Political Participation in Japan Name: Wilda Fatma Apsari Student Number: International Program of International Relations Faculty of Social and Politics Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta 2014

2 The Aging Population and Political Participation in Japan Arranged by: Wilda Fatma Apsari Student of International Relations, Social and Politics Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta Abstract After the World War II, Japan experienced the mass of new generation. Around 2,7 million babies were born. In the past time, this demographic change might give the beneficial to the developing of Japan in beginning of Industrial era in term of economic. However, in recent time it leaves the new challenges for Japanese not only in social, economic, but in political matter as well. Thus, this paper tries to find the impact of this phenomenon toward the elder and younger society demand in politics and the political participation each of the generations.

3 Introductions People aging or aging population is the condition of the demographic structure and proportion shifting into the increasing of elderly people. This phenomenon driven by the low fertility and low mortality of the country when a small number of children were born and long lifetime of the current people occurs. The aging population process is quiet common in developed country, such as Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, even in Italy and Sweden. 1 The developed country which having the sufficient public health facilities let the society are healthier than in developing country. The way people conduct their life also made them to have a longer life time. In year of 1947 to 1949 after the World War II era, Japan experiences Dankai or usually to be called as baby boom. It is where the huge number of baby bearing happened in Japan. Around 2.7 million people were born in that time and several of them still alive today in a very old condition with cognitive and physically problems. 2 In the beginning of twentieth century the life expectancy of Japan is still lower than European country. By the time, in the end of twentieth century, Japan demography changed rapidly and turned into the first category of high aging population and the highest life expectancy of the people, compared to other developed country such as Germany, United Kingdom, and United states. Ironically, in Nanmoku, around 85 miles from Tokyo, an elementary school only has a single student in 2012 which indicated the rapid aging population happens in Japan. 3 The recent issues about Japan s population aging, according to Ministry of Health, labor and Welfare, is that Japan populations predicted will decline a million people every year by It will be around 40% of the population which age is over 65 years old. The shifting of the demographic structure of Japan gives the new challenge to Japan society. The populations aging is not merely about the social demographic problem, but it encompasses to economic and 1 Source: United Nations, Replacement Migration (New York: United Nations, 2001), 8, Table 2 and , Appendix. Projections for 2005, 2025 and 2050 are based on the UN's medium-variant projections. For Sweden, two additional Source were used: Chikako Usui. Japan s Aging Dilemma. Asia Program Special report page (last accessed january 02, 2015) 3 NYTimes: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive? ( last accesed: January O1, 2014

4 political issues as well. The shifting of the people age drives the elderly to have different expectation toward political activity compared to the youth. The government should change the domestic policy to adjust with the new conditions immediately before the populations decline too far and bringing the new and more serious problems. Research Question How big is the impact of demographic changing in Japan in case of the rapid old people increasing toward its political participation?

5 Political Participation and Aging in Japan Political participation is the way of the society directly involving in political process in decision making process. In this participation, societies are allowed to influence the political actor behavior in order to improving the life quality of the society and it is become an option for the government to know the society willingness. Elections is not the only way to conducting the political participation in democratic country, but it is become the easiest method to show the level of participation of the society toward domestics politics. The election gives the valid data to be observed. From this data known that some pattern and political trend are happen in every election. Below are the level of political participations to the Japanese Lower House in after the electoral reformation based on the voter s age. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lower House Turnout after Electoral Reform Table 1: Mochio Umeda. the Effect of Population Aging on Politics: The Difficulty of Countering Silver Power in Japan There are common assumptions that older people are more conservative than the younger. The older people are reluctant to join the election. However, in developed industrial country experience the different. Basically, the level of political consciousness of a person depends on the experience they have. The different level of education, living place or environment, and the level of economics highly affected on the way people choose their stand. From the data above, in age of 20s are in the lowest position of political participation. Then, it

6 increase parallel with the age increasing until get the average of 50 years old. It means that the political participation is develop when an individual have enough experience and information toward the political matter. Logically, the older of an individual, the more complex of the need they have and higher expectation to have a better life. In 60 years old people remained to have political participation and even the highest compared to the age below. When the people turn to the age of 70 and over, the voting turnout is significantly decreasing in their political participation. It might be caused by the physical disability and cognitive decline due to their age. The other form of participation can be a demonstration, but this form of participation doesn t work to the old people because of the declining of physical capacity. The most possible form is the society consciousness to join in a certain group of interest to facilitate and collecting the aspiration of elder people willing. There are such associations that help for the retired people in Japan. It is similar with the AARP (American Association of retired Persons) in United States but a number of Japan elderly are reluctant to join the interest group. There are some assumptions toward the elderly reluctance to join such the group interest for retired people. a. Retired person are already having the problem of health The association of the retirement people usually based on the non-profit organization. Means that all the activity of the organization will conducted by the member itself. It seems difficult for the old people in 65 and over to organize the organization by their self, although they themselves still need the help of the younger people to accompany them in daily life, especially for people with the problem of physics and mental. b. Rural society Rural people are mostly shopkeeper, owner of private business or a farmers which impossible to get the retired. Even some of the still working even their age already passes the working age. For rural people by following the election might be enough for their political participations because what they need are the stable economic which will directly affected their job instead of how to get public pensions fee. c. Still in Age of Working The active organization of elderly society needs the members who are in years old that still have the healthy physic. But Japanese people, especially for the men, tend to

7 work beyond the working age limit (65). Elderly persons still active in labor markets, it makes them more obligate to work place then join and work in non-profit group interests of retirees. d. The old people are comfortable with the current condition, which give the sufficient public pension. Japanese government has prepared the high amount for the public pension in order to fulfill the need of the elderly toward the health care, insurance, and the cost for nursing them. In 2010, the government expense for pension is around 51,133.2 billion and 16,3 trillion for total basic pension expenses. 4 From those assumptions, the effectiveness and efficiency of elder organization in Japan become questioned because non-profit organization needs a budget support and cognitive ability to arrange the agenda to influence the government policy making process. The Significant Issues of Elderly Participation The Percentage of People Over 65 Based on total populations (last acessed: january 01, 2015) 5 Source: United Nations, Replacement Migration(New York: United Nations, 2001), 8, Table 2 and , Appendix. Projections for 2005, 2025 and 2050 are based on the UN's medium-variant projections. For Sweden, two additional sources were used: Chikako Usui. Japan s Aging Dilemma. Asia Program Special report Page 18.

8 Since 1994, the new electoral system was introduced. To get the position the party only needed 20-30% from the total voters. 6 In democratic system the party got majority voice would hold the power, in this case the voice of old people become very significant. From years of 1985 until today the number of older people consistently increase in every year. Moreover, it predicted that the number of this population will rises in a number of 31,8% of the total populations. In case of the result of Election in 2012 and several years before, the political participation of older people is higher than the younger. It means that the younger aspiration being left out by the majority willing of the elderly. Even the older people does not have the certain interest group to contain their aspiration, such as AARP that has mentioned before, some of them are actively fight for their interest. As the example of political activity, Koenkai. According to Japanese surveys, people who in 50s, 60s, and 70s are dominated the number of the member. Koenkai itself is local support group which have the function to keep in touch with the public demand and opinion. It also has the function to search the financial support to conduct the political activity. Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is known as the traditional Japanese political party because it is already exists in 1880s. 7 The leader of Liberal Democratic Party of japan, Kan Naoto, recognized himself as the part of baby boomer. Thus he knows exactly the process of the people aging that affected japan today s policy. In October 2005, he proposed the establishment of new party to facilitate the aspiration of the baby boomer that reaches their pension period in He called the party as Dankai Party. Japan policy toward the pension system in changing demographic condition made the elder people having more interest in politics. It might lose their opportunity to get the elder facilities like what they get today from government. Thus, perhaps, also become the reason for the politician avoid to mention about the pension system, inefficient healthcare, the economic difficulties that facing by the young generations because of the fear the majority of the voters will go away. 6 (last accesed January o1, 2014) 7 (last acessed by december 31, 2014)

9 Future Problem and Demand for Youth Japan population will shrink from 128 million people into only less than 100 million people in 2060, according to the Ministry of Health, labor and Welfare prediction. The similar condition will be happen if government does not take the immediate action to prevent the worst condition. Where the low fertility still occurs and old people still dominate the population. The aging population will bring the high medical cost, health care, expanding the public pension, the low employment and the changing of political direction into old people-needed tendencies. Above is the image of the projection of people in working age responsibility to older people through tax paying. Japan elder people will reach a two-to-one ratio to its working age population between 15 to 65 years old by The worst will be on 2050 that one of the working age should have a burden of one pensioner. It seems that Japan people is really respect to old people. Some of younger people tied understand that the high tax they should pay is for the economic stability reason, even they know that the public pension is already start at the age of 65 with the life expectancy possibilities until 79 years. Obviously, is not a short time. Ironically, a lot of old people in Japan are richer than the working age, some of them get the lower wage even they have the better skill than the older one. 8 Yasuo Takao. The Dankai Generation in a Political Swing

10 Nowadays, the political participation of the younger society still not significant in public pension policy and related to aging impact matter. However, if the government let the population shrink, it can be assured that the next young generation by 2025 will take the real action to maintain their economic welfare. The increasing of the elderly population will not only gives a heavy burden on the working age population. It will also let the retired people in a position to act as decision-making within the government which can be predict the future impact to Japan politics. Conclusion The baby boomers phenomenon after the second World War is highly affected todays government policy as well as the political participation of the elder people itself and the younger generations. It also drives the demand of each different generations. The aging population will change the democratic system of Japan. It let the people to rethink about the significant of young direct involvement in polical matter.

11 References Butkiewicz, Lynann. Impliations of Japan Changing Demographic. Report of The National Bureau Of Asian Research, October Japanese Pension System. ( last accessed: january Chikako Usui. Japan s Aging Dilemma. Asia Program Special report accessed January 02, 2015) (last NYTimes: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive? ( last accesed: January O1, (last acessed: January 01, 2015)