Maintaining the sustainable development within the global aging

Transcription

1 Maintaining the sustainable development within the global aging Forum: Economic and Social Council Student Officer: SiHoo Lee, President Introduction Global aging is a worldwide phenomenon and one of the most significant social transformations. Population aged 65 and over is growing faster than any other age groups, at a rate of approximately 3 percent per year. According to the data from the World Population Prospects, the number of people in this group is expected to more than double to 2.1 billion people by 2050, and to more than triple to 3.1 billion people by On the other hand, the number of children younger than 15 is expected to increase by a mere 0.2 billion by Moreover, according to the United Nations Population Division, more than half of all adults will be older than the official retirement age, with more people in their A map showing the percentage of population aged 65 or over by different colors 70s than in their 20s by People aged 65 or over comprise a significant share of the world's population in contemporary societies than ever before, and this proportion will continue to increase in the future. There are two main forces behind global aging. The first force is the declining fertility, or the rate of birth of a given population, due to growing affluence, urbanization, feminism, rising female participation in the workforce, development of birth control technologies, and legalization of abortion. Low fertility countries are defined by having a total fertility rate (TFR) below 2 children per woman. In low fertility countries, like many economically developed countries, the overall population decreases over time as well, which may cause more problems in the future. Another driving force is the rising life expectancy thanks to the advancements achieved in public health, medical system and economic development over diseases and injuries. Life expectancy has risen all over the world since 1950 by an average increase of 21 years. The reduced risk of suffering from diseases due to the introduction of vaccines, tests, and medicine prolonged lives to unprecedented lengths with an overall improvement in longevity, and this subsequently increased the relative number of old. The irreversible trend of global aging has brought economic and social implications that are becoming increasingly apparent in most of the developed countries in all sectors of society, including the provision of adequate health care for the aging population, labor and financial markets, the demand for goods and services, and sustainability of families. If this trend of global

2 aging continues, countries all across the world are likely to face both social and economic pressures, which can significantly undermine the high living standard currently enjoyed in developed countries. Background A graph depicting the percentage of population aged 65 or over Global aging poses a challenge to the economic stability of societies through increased government spending on pension and healthcare for retired citizens. The decline in the labor force, along with the increase in seniors dependent on the workforce, may lead to serious problems. Increase in healthcare costs is one of the major consequences that global aging has on the country as government budgets will come under intense pressure from rising expenditures on pensions and healthcare. According to the projection by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the cost of maintaining the current healthcare system will add 7 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to government budgets by 2030 due to the increased aging population that needs to receive the care. With healthcare spending as a share of GDP already high in most developed countries, it will hurt the government s economy to divert public spending from education and infrastructure investment to finance programs for the elders. Furthermore, the economy will be discouraged as the rates of savings and investment fall and workforce decline. The working-age population has already begun to contract in large developed countries, and the number of workers is falling faster than the productivity rising. The shortage of qualified workers will make it more difficult for businesses to fulfill the demand, which will result in consequences such as declining productivity, higher labor costs, delayed business expansion and reduced international competitiveness. Labor force shortages are recognized all over the world, but there is little agreement on how to resolve them, so the measures to maintain sustainable development within global aging are more than necessary. International Actions United Nations (UN) The United Nations advisory body on issues related to population and development projected that between 2015 and 2050, the population aged 65 or over will increase from 23 to 28 percent on average globally. To address the issues regarding global aging, the General Assembly assembled the first World Assembly on Aging in 1982, which produced a 62-point Vienna International Plan of Action on Aging. It called for specific actions on the issues regarding the global aging such as health and nutrition, housing and environment, family, social welfare, income security and employment, and education. In 1991, the General Assembly adopted the United Nations Principles for Older Persons, enumerating 18 rights for older people about independence, participation, care, self-fulfillment and dignity. In 1999, the General Assembly

3 declared the International Year of Older Persons, which is celebrated on 1 October. In April 2002, representatives from 159 nations gathered in Madrid to convene the Second UN World Assembly on Aging with the countries aiming to set international policies on global aging. The focus had shifted from basic demographic and economic issues of aging to the inclusion of older people at all levels of society, a movement to expand roles for older people. International Federation on Aging (IFA) The International Federation on Aging is an international non-governmental organization working in the field of global aging. The purpose of the organization is to make a "change for older people throughout the world by stimulating, collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information on rights, policies and practices that improve the quality of life of people as they age. IFA has general consultative status at the United Nations ECOSOC, and works with World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations IFA Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and International Labor Organization (ILO). It published its Declaration of the Rights and Responsibilities of Older Persons to detail the rights of older people regarding care, dignity, self-fulfillment, participation and independence, and organized the Fourth Global Conference on Aging in Montreal, which resulted in the Montreal Declaration on the Rights and Duties of Older People that became the foundation of the UN Principles of Older Persons. Places of High Concern Japan Japan has the title of being the oldest country in the world with approximately 40 percent of the population older than 65. In 2055, 20 percent of Japan's population will be 80 years and over, and at the same time, the country's population size will shrink from 128 million to 90 million. Japan s birth rate is the lowest in the world with the total fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman, yet the life expectancy is one of the highest in the world with 79 years for males and 86 years for females. As it is predicted that more than one in three adults will be retirees and that the country will lose nearly half of their total populations by the end of the century, Japan will have to find measures that can allow the country to maintain sustainable development within global aging. South Korea In South Korea, the majority of the population is projected to be older than 50 by 2050 with more people turning 90 each year than those being born. The percentage of those aged 65 or over in South Korea will more than triple by The main cause of global aging in the country is low fertility with one of the lowest total fertility rate in the world of 1.2 children per woman. The government has tried to solve the issue by offering financial incentives to families with children, but the government failed to effectively solve the problem. The aging population is affecting the growth prospects for the country, and it is projected that the ratio of elders to

4 working-age people will be 1 to 1.5 by 2050, which signifies a significant challenge to the country s economic stability. Spain Europe has the highest proportion of the population aged 65 or over in the world, with Spain in the lead. With a high life expectancy of years and the lowest fertility in Europe, the country is experiencing global aging, while its population is projected to get even older in the future. The median age in the country was 34 in 1980, but it is projected to soar to 47 by 2030, resulting in Spain having the highest median age globally. The proportion of people aged 80 and over is expected to more than double by 2050, and people in the generation will then comprise 16 percent of the total population. This continued trend of global aging in the country will have serious implications for the country s economy, so the country is holding campaigns and making regulations to mitigate its impact. Stance of the P5 Nations United States of America The United States population is expected to get older, but at a slower rate than other developed countries thanks to the comparatively high fertility, with a TFR above 2.1 children per woman, and substantial immigration that allows assimilation. According to both US Census Bureau and UN projections, the working-age population will continue to grow through the century, so the country can continue to play a major role in the world with youth and economic resources. People s Republic of China China is one of most rapidly aging countries in the world with low fertility. Despite the country s effort to raise TFR by relaxing its one-child policy in 2013, the proportion of older people in the population continues to rise. The effects of the One Child Policy are expected to show, as the dependency ratio is expected to increase. Global aging in China will weaken the country s rapidly rising GDP and social stability by slowing its economic growth and precipitating a political crisis. By the 2020s, the Red Guard generation, which refers to the people born before the country s fertility decline, will retire and the government will have to heavily tax the people to support the health care of the people in that generation, which will most likely result in an economic decline. Russian Federation By the 2020s, Russia, along with the rest of Europe, is projected to experience global aging as the country s TFR has been far below the replacement level. If the problem of global aging is not solved, Russia will weaken progressively with economic and social problems arising from the country s aging. In order to mitigate its impact and to prevent this from happening, Russia developed a national program to reverse the decline by 2020, and it is succeeding in slowing the rate of population decrease with death rates continuing to fall, birth rates continuing to rise and meeting steady flow of immigration.

5 France Thanks to the government s effort to slow global aging by providing family benefits such as allowance based on income and the number of children to households, France is the only country in Europe with the total fertility rate at the replacement level. Even though the country s life expectancy is high with years, its high fertility with 2.08 children per woman allows the country s population to grow, and it is projected that France will have the largest population in the European Union (EU) by United Kingdom The United Kingdom has a high total fertility rate of 1.94 children per woman, which is the second highest fertility rate in Europe. Even though the country s population in general is aging, its comparably high fertility allows population growth; it is expected that the population will rise to 76.8 million by To compensate the possible conflicts arising from global aging, the United Kingdom looks to immigration to keep the labor well-supplied and is attracting highly skilled immigrants into its labor force. Possible Solutions Because the main cause of the global aging is the trend of declining fertility, increasing fertility is the most apparent solution to the issue. Governments can provide financial incentives to households based on the number of children and encourage an increase in the number of children via campaigns. In addition, providing opportunities and encouraging senior workers to remain longer in the labor force can provide both social and economic benefits and relieve the pressures of global aging. This measure can not only allow continuity in tax revenues and reduced expenditure on pensions, but also can be beneficial to organizations and younger colleagues due to the workers knowledge and experience. In cases where individuals are unable to remain in the labor force due to health or family issues, governments can promote volunteering, care, and artistic activities that can help their well-being and contribute to the economy by reducing healthcare and welfare costs. Old workers in labor force Glossary Global aging: A global phenomenon that is characterized by the increasing median age in the population of a region due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy Life expectancy: The statistically determined period that a person may expect to live affected by factors such as heredity, physical condition, nutrition and occupation Fertility: The birthrate of a population Total fertility rate (TFR): The number of children who would be born per woman Global Aging Initiative (GAI): An organization that explores the long-term economic, social, and geopolitical implications of global aging

6 Timeline 1982 The General Assembly convened the first World Assembly on Aging that produced a 62- point Vienna International Plan of Action on Aging 1991 The adoption of the United Nations Principles for Older Persons in the General Assembly 1999 The declaration of the International Year of Older Persons in the General Assembly 1999 Establishment of GAI to raise awareness of global aging 2002 Second World Assembly on Aging held in Madrid, Spain

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