Nordic Agenda. Transforming for the Next Wave of Success. Nordic Trial Alliance Helsinki, January 29, 2015
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1 Nordic Agenda Transforming for the Next Wave of Success Nordic Trial Alliance Helsinki, January 29, 2015 Stuart Gander, Partner & Managing Director BCG Stockholm
2 Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 1
3 Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 2
4 Volatility is increasing Sector Rolling five-year standard deviation of firm market cap growth by sector Information Tech. Consumer Disc. Industrials Materials Financials Health Care Consumer Staples Telecom Energy Utilities Time Standard deviation: Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 3
5 Competitive dynamics are changing Increased positional volatility Less returns to scale Companies leaving top 3 ranking position (%) 15 Probability that share leader is the profitability leader Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 4
6 Competitive advantage outweighs industry attractiveness Shareholder return (50) 19 (3) (1) Mining & Mat. 12 Trans. & Log. (20) Auto (35) Mach. & Constr. (26) (28) Chem. Source:Thomson Financial Datastream; BCG analysis (38) Utility Travel & Tourism (26) Retail (19) (18) Cons. Goods Pulp & Paper (12) Multi- Bus. 0 (2) (31) Pharma (41) Tech. (6) (6) (25) Media & Entert. High Weighted Average Total Sample Low Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 5
7 Nordic industry overall has transformed 1960's 1980's 2000's Electronics Machinery Ships & boats Constr. mat & eq. Pulp & paper Chem &. health Medicine Agro chemicals Metal products Fruit & veg. Other agriculture Crude petroleum Precious stones Garments Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 6
8 Industrial Technology Energy Healthcare Financial Consumer & Services Basic mterials Fish Farming Nordic MNC's are very healthy Median average annual TSR (%) 30 Nordics outperform global across all time periods and in most industries Median average annual TSR (2004 YTD 2014) years Norway 10 years 5 years The Nordics Global median 2 years Nordic median Global median Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 7
9 "Nordic model" admired internationally Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 8
10 The illusion of competitiveness Norway WEF competitiveness index Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 9
11 However, Nordics are average to weak compared with the key competitors Gold Silver Bronze Bottom Three BCG net competitiveness score 30 Average: 1.4 Switzerland 20 South Korea UK US Japan Germany Netherlands Canada Belgium Norway Austria France Average GDP growth ( ) Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 10
12 Low productivity growth coupled with flat hours make growth outlook bleak Productivity growth slowing and no growth in hours lead to declining GDP growth Avg. annual productivity growth (%) 6% Hours worked per capita GDP (% real change per annum) 4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% avg avg avg avg avg avg Peer avg. Norway 900 Norway x 800 = Peer avg OECD Norway Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 11
13 Overall relative competitiveness of Nordic exports is declining Economic complexity index value Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 12
14 Large companies provide important base-load, but no longer drive growth in home countries Number of employees (m) Employed abroad +4% CAGR 0.5 Employed in -1% CAGR 0.0 Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 13
15 Root cause 1: Conditions for businesses are weakening Global Competitiveness ranking (WEF, 2014/15) dk fi no se Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health & education Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market dev Market size Top 5 (of 15) Improvement in ranking by more than 2 places Rank 6-10 (of 15) Change in rank by 2 places or less Bottom 5 (of 15) Deterioration in ranking by more than 2 places Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 14
16 South Korea United States The Netherlands United Kingdom Japan Switzerland Norway Belgium France Germany Root case 2: Focus on current spending not future investment Euro spent on fixed investments for each Euro spent on social protection Peer avg: Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 15
17 Switzerland France Belgium Germany Canada Netherlands Japan Austria UK South Korea US Root cause 3: Factor costs are too high Manufacturing-cost index, 2014 (US = 100) Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 16
18 Root cause 4: Room to improve key productivity drivers Low R&D intensity in Norway; low start-up rate in 1st quartile All Nordics with recent decline in digitization nd quartile 4 3rd quartile 6 8 4th quartile 10 R&D spend Patents Startups BCG e-intensity ranking Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 17
19 Additionally, no competitive advantage in talent Primary/ secondary education (Math) Peer average: 511 Tertiary education graduates OECD: 38 Science and engineering graduates OECD: 23 S. Korea Japan Switzerland Netherlands Canada Belgium Germany Austria France Norway US PISA 2012 mathematics score S. Korea Japan Canada UK Norway US France Belgium Switzerland Netherlands Germany Austria % of year olds with tertiary education S. Korea Germany Switzerland Japan UK Belgium Canada Norway US Netherlands % of graduates with degrees in science and engineering Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 18
20 f 2020f 2025f 2030f And yet the pressure on each worker is growing Dependency ratio (Number of dependents per worker) Peer group avg. Norway Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 19
21 Total S. Korea Germany UK France Canada Japan Netherlands Austria Switzerland Total Belgium 2M more Nordic workers are needed to close gap 2.0 Workforce gap of 2M by 2030 Workforce gap (million workers) 60 Key peers also with large gap Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 20
22 South Korea Japan United Kingdom United States Canada France Netherlands Germany Switzerland Belgium Norway Austria But Nordics are attracting less skilled talent Global survey of 160,000 respondents Share of those choosing 1-5 countries wanting to move to country Other Tertiery 0 Total Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 21
23 If they will come at all % of respondents willing to move there United States United Kingdom Canada Germany Switzerland France Austria The Netherlands Norway Japan Belgium South Korea Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 22
24 In sum, Nordics need to strengthen competitiveness and solve looming talent crisis Pressure on productivity Pressure on hours worked 1 Export less unique and not exposed to high growth markets 7 Nordics are working less than many peers MNCs moving out Framework conditions for businesses are too weak Not enough on forward-looking investment (relative to social costs) 8 9 Increasing dependency ratios, leading to workforce shortage Nordics are less attractive to international talent than peers 5 Factor costs are too high 6 Room for improvement on key productivity drivers (innovation, digitalization) Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 23
25 Hours worked drivers Productivity drivers "Nordic Agenda" with 10 key priorities I "Funding the II "Winning in the III journey" medium term" "Right team, talent and culture" 1 2 Reduce public expenditure as share of GDP Take immediate action to help businesses overcome competitive disadvantages Invest more into, and get the most out of, talent, innovation and digitalization Revitalize public sector Improve framework conditions for businesses 8 Become a magnet for international talent 3 Get more people into the workforce 9 Leverage the current workforce/population to higher degree 4 Open the labor market 10 Increase the workforce through immigration Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 24
26 We estimate that transformation could give growth uplift of 1-2%pts across Nordics Real GDP growth per annum ( ) 6 5 Further potential possible from outperforming key competitors in productivity growth and hours % 1.9%? 1.1% 1.1% Uplift from catching up to top-performing key competitors 1 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% Baseline forecast growth 0 Norway Nordic Agenda_Triton_ presentation version.pptx 25
27 Thank you bcg.com bcgperspectives.com
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