Euro area competitiveness developments
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1 Euro area competitiveness developments La competitivité belge. Analyses et enjeux Bureau fédéral du Plan Brussels, 17 November 2009 Reinhard Felke Head of Unit the economy of the euro area and EMU DG ECFIN, European Commission
2 Overview euro area external performance in the global economy evolution of intra-euro area competitiveness main factors driving intra-euro area imbalances and external competitiveness the role of the non-tradable sector the role of non-price competitiveness some preliminary findings on Belgium conclusions European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 2
3 global export market shares Euro area US Japan Source: Commission services. Euro area date excludes intra-euro-area trade European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 3
4 Export market growth 2010 forecast JP US EA MT DE FI IT ES FR IE BE AT SK CY NL LU SI EL PT Note: percentage change on preceding year, export weighted GDP growth of trade partners; own calculations based on IMF October 2009 forecast. European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 4
5 Intra euro area REER divergence ( in %, based on GDP deflator) DE FI AT FR BE SI IT MT PT EL NL CY IE ES SK European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 5 Appreciation in SK during amounted to 66%.
6 Exports of goods and services (average annual growth in % ) BE DE IE EL ES FR IT CY LU MT NL AT PT SI SK FI European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 6
7 Export growth DG ECFIN Change in export market shares and export growth (average annual growth in % ) SK 9 SI 8 DE 7 AT IE EL FI 6 NL 5 PT 4 BE FR CY ES R 2 = IT 2 MT Export market shares (1) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 7
8 Current account positions (in % of GDP ) EL CY PT ES SI MT IE SK FR IT BE AT FI NL DE LU NLB from national accounts for all Member States, except LU (bal. of current transactions). European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 8
9 Change in current account (% of GDP) DG ECFIN export performance and the current account ( ) 10 DE 5 NL AT SK 0-5 IT MT FR BE PT CY FI IE LU SI ES EL R 2 = Change in exports of G&S (average annual growth in %) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 9
10 Change in the current account (% of GDP) DG ECFIN Domestic demand and the current account ( ) 10 DE 5 AT NL SK 0-5 PT IT BE MT FR FI LU SI CY IE ES EL R 2 = Change in domestic demand (average annual growth in %) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 10
11 Export market shares DG ECFIN Exports of goods and services (average annual growth in % ) DE FI IE AT NL R 2 = 0.44 EL ES PT CY FR BE MT IT Intra-euro-area REER (export deflator) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 11
12 Correlations between various measures of the REER and export growth or current account (cross-sectional correlations in %) Export growth Changes in the current account REER based on: GDP deflators Export prices European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 12
13 A preliminary look at non-price competitiveness Non-price competitiveness includes a broad range of aspects. Preliminary ECFIN work focuses on: Technological aspects. Innovation is crucial in the development of new varieties of products as well as in producing products of higher quality (proxy: R&D intensity, patents, exports deflator) Services. Services are an important intermediate input and are increasingly being used to obtain product differentiation (proxy: TFP in selected services sectors) Business environment. Framework conditions related to the business environment (proxy: procedures, time and cost of enforcing contracts). European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 13
14 External competitiveness of Belgium some tentative views Reasons for deterioration of current account in recent years: Sustained domestic (import) demand; rising oil prices; sluggish export performance Factors shaping export performance: geographical distribution of exports Product composition of exports (share of high-tech lower than EA average) Adverse cost developments Weaknesses in business environment SME structure less conducive to export European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 14
15 Conclusions 1. Euro-area s external trade performance strongly determined by geographical distribution of exports 2. Significant divergence in REER, trade performance and current accounts across EA Member States ( ) 3. In many cases, divergence was driven by domestic imbalances: House market bubble; overshooting of private sector debt; little productive use of capital inflows; insufficient fiscal consolidation in some MS 4. External performance is not just an exporter s story the productivity and relative prices of the non-tradable sectors matters, too 5. Non-price factors are an important determinant of external trade performance 6. Overall, formidable adjustment challenges for Euro Area in less benign post-crisis global economic environment European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 15
16 Thank you very much for your attention For information on the economy of the Euro Area: Quarterly Report on the euro area, No 1, _summary14648_en.htm 2009 Annual Statement and Annual Report on the Euro Area: _en.htm European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 16
17 Slides not shown European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 17
18 Export market shares (2) Average change Q EL PT ES NL DE LU FI AT FR IT IE BE MT SK SI CY European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 18
19 1. Divergence Current account divergence in % of GDP surplus countries (de, lu, at, nl, fi) deficit countries (el, es, pt, cy, ie, mt, si, sk) EA European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 19
20 Determinants of real exports in euro-area countries estimation results Long-run elasticities fdem reer Adjustment coefficient (α) R 2 Austria Germany Spain France Italy The Netherlands Notes: Sample is 1980Q1-2007Q4 except Italy: 1980Q1-2007Q4 and France: 1980Q1-2000Q1 For Netherlands the estimates presented are OLS coefficients estimated on detrended series All coefficients are significant at 5%. European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 20
21 A case for policy intervention? 1. Divergence is not bad per se Catching-up growth Consumption smoothing 2. Source of imbalances need to be identified Market failure (e.g. bubbles)? Policy failure? European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 21
22 Changes in current account (in % of GDP) DG ECFIN 2. Underlying imbalances House price and current account (changes in % ) 10 DE 5 AT NL R 2 = 0.51 LU 0-5 PT FI IT BE IE FR -10 EL ES Houseprice increase (in percent) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 22
23 TFP and capital (1) DG ECFIN 2. Underlying imbalances Capital flow often not used for catching-up (average ) SK SI R 2 = CY MT PT EL ES BE FR IT FI AT NL DE IE GDP per capita in 000 euro LU European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs 23 (1) Sum of contribution of capital and trend TFP to potential growth.
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