A sustainable future enabled by fibre to the home

Transcription

1 A sustainable future enabled by fibre to the home Karin Ahl, President, FTTH Council Europe NextGen Scotland, Edinburgh, 22 May 2013

2 FTTH Council Europe A sustainable future for Europe enabled by Fibre to the Home

3 FTTH Council Europe Industry organisation created in 2004, today powerful organisation with over 150 member companies from across Europe, deployers, vendors, academics. Our vision: a sustainable future for Europe with enhanced quality of life, enabled by FTTH Our mission: accelerate the availability of fibre-based, ultra-high-speed access networks Our job is to provide information about FTTH to a wide range of broadband stakeholders (policy makers, journalists, operators, investors, etc) Go to our web site, Resources tab, for all our collection of reports/ studies, case studies, opinion articles, monthly newsletter, but also clips and photos Our job is to help YOU

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5 We are promoting FTTH because it is the leading access solution today and widely recognised as the ONLY future-proof technology.

6 FTTH is not just about speed!

7 FTTH is not just about speed FTTH is not just about speed, it is an enabler, because it offers: The fastest possible speeds with virtually unlimited bandwidth Symmetrical/ almost symmetrical speeds, enabling video intensive interactive services Reduced latency, i.e. no buffer, no delay, no interruptions, this is necessary for real-time services Resilience: failures are rare and if they do occur they don t have much effect on Quality of Service Limited contention: better chance to get what you pay for at any time than DSL (FCC 2012) No sharing frequencies with other users, no interferences, same speed regardless of the number of users (versus mobile) or distance from the cabinet (versus copper) We are not talking about adding a few Mbps downstream, we are talking about a revolution in the way people live and work

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9 There is Demand for FTTH Fact = there is demand when there are services (Diffraction Analysis 2012). By % of German homes will need 60+Mbps upstream, 43.5% will need 170+Mbps upstream (Breko 2012) FTTH subscribers are more satisfied (53% Verizon FTTH customers, vs. 37% on AT&T FTTN) They use the bandwidth (Ovum 2009: FTTH users use 3-4 times more bandwidth than with other broadband technologies) They would never go back to previous technologies They are willing to pay for value added services (Diffraction Analysis 2012) They rank speed + reliability higher than price in operator choice (Internet Society 2012) Some dig up their own trenches to get FTTH (Altibox/Norway, rural projects/uk!) As with railways or smartphones, awareness + availability = demand European consumers will soon be demanding services available in other parts of the world and operators won t be able to deliver!

10 Don t just take our word for it! When people get access to fibre, they don t just use more bandwidth, they find new ways of using it, too Jacob Bolin, Project Manager, Swedish Broadband Forum

11 Conclusion for Europe

12 Conclusion for Europe The question is not whether to chose to invest in FTTH instead of investing in so called more urgent issues When you invest in fibre, you re investing in all of these priorities as well and the return on the public money invested is greater than it would if you spent public money on each separately.

13 FTTH/B Global Panorama end 2012 total subscribers 7.3 M 8.9 M 79 M 11.1 M 0.74 M Source: FTTH Global Councils, February 2013

14 FTTH/B Global Panorama end 2012 total subscribers The total number of subscribers remains far higher in Asia Pacific than in any other part of the world, with nearly 80 million subscribers! America represents 11 millions subscribers, whilst Europe (EU35) comes third with 7.3 million. However, together with the CIS countries (mostly Russia and the Ukraine), larger Europe counts more than 16 million subscribers In the Middle East, the market is only starting to develop, not yet reaching 1 million subscribers In absolute terms, it is clear that Asia Pacific is leading the way to FTTH adoption in the world, let s have a look at household penetration.

15 FTTH/B Global Ranking end 2012 Household Penetration of economies* with more than 1% household penetration *Economies with at least 200,000 households Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

16 FTTH/B Global Ranking end 2012 Let s have a look at the market in terms of penetration = % of the population You see on this chart all 34 countries in the world with more than 200K households of which more than 1% are FTTH/B subscribers This covers only FTTH & FTTB, NOT FTTC where fibre is outside of the building (FTTH/B definitions available on our web site) UAE 72% number 1, rest of top 5 are in Asia Pacific, penetration rates 45%-70%!! Middle East getting onto the picture, new entrants 2012 Saudi Arabia & Jordan The first European country is Lithuania with 31% penetration There is also a huge gap between Asia Pacific and the rest of the world in penetration rates. Let s have a closer look at Europe.

17 FTTH/B European Ranking end 2012 Household Penetration of economies* with more than 1% household penetration *Economies with at least 200,000 households Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

18 FTTH/B European Ranking end 2012 Total of 22 European countries with more than 1% penetration 2 new entrants in June 2012 = Spain and Luxembourg (no entrant in Dec 2012) The European market was historically driven by Scandinavia, and the Nordic countries hold quite high positions in the ranking (Sweden #2, Norway #5) Large Western European economies are either at the bottom of the ranking (France, Italy and Spain) or missing from this graph (Germany 0.51%, UK 0.06%) More than half of the countries in EU ranking are from Eastern Europe Lithuania Number 1 for the last few years, maintaining its position Turkey progressing fast Russia (#6) and the Ukraine (#15) are in high positions in the ranking considering their large population Europe is not a homogeneous market, there will be winners and losers. FTTH adoption is driven by the Eastern European economies.

19 FTTH/B figures at end 2012 EU39: 16.2 M subscribers and 63 M Homes Passed CIS countries = 8.9 M subscribers Number of FTTH/B subscribers and Homes Passed (Dec 2009 to Dec 2012) Average take up rate in EU39 at end 2012: 25.7% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

20 FTTH/B figures at end 2012 EU35: 7.3 M subscribers and 33.8 M Homes Passed Number of FTTH/B subscribers and Homes Passed (Dec 2009 to Dec 2012) Average take up rate in EU35 at end 2012: 21.6% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

21 FTTH/B figures at end 2012 EU27: 6.2 M subscribers and 28.9 M Homes Passed Number of FTTH/B subscribers and Homes Passed (Dec 2009 to Dec 2012) Average take up rate in EU27 at end-2012: 21.5% A strong progression compared to end-2011: 17.5% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

22 Major projects / categories of players Around 290 FTTH/B projects in EU39 at end projects > 200k HP 22 projects > 500k HP 15 projects > 1M HP % of HP per category of player!"#"$%&'(')*+, Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

23 Technologies and architectures EU39: 70% FTTB vs 30% FTTH - 27% PON vs 73% P2P EU27: 51% FTTB vs 49% FTTH - 41% PON vs 59% P2P (Homes Passed segmentation) Mainly FTTH Mainly FTTB % of HP per technology in EU27 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

24 General ranking: FTTH/B Homes Passed 15 countries with 1 M HP or more in EU39 10 countries in EU27 Countries with 1M HP or more at end 2012 Countries > 1M HP [Top 5 Growth rates 2012] Countries from 500k to 1M HP Countries < 500k HP -021, -321, -./01, -201, -431, Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

25 General ranking: FTTH/B coverage (HP) Average FTTH/B coverage* EU39: 20% EU27: 14% FG'<';8,E41, Top 10 countries in coverage at end 2012 * Coverage = number of Homes Passed / Total Households D)'(";<8,E01, 5"&67"8,391, 57&%>";7"8,/991, F(*6"$7"8,E91, F(*6';7"8,E.1, H$="7;'8,E/1, B*=&>@"(8,0C1,?>(@"=7"8,A91, :;<*=="8,/991, Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

26 General ranking: FTTH/B Subscribers 3 countries with 1 M subs or more in EU39 Only Sweden in EU27! France very close Countries with 200k subs or more at end 2012 [Top 5 Growth rates 2012] Countries > 500k subs Countries from 100k to 500k subs Countries < 100k subs Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

27 General ranking: FTTH/B Take up rates Average FTTH/B coverage* EU39: 25,7% EU27: 21,5% FG'<';8,E3LE1, Top 10 countries of more than 200k subs in take up rate at end 2012 O7;(";<8,E/L41, * Take up rate = number of Subscribers/ Homes passed M*=G"N8,0/L21, J>QQ7"8,C3LC1, P';+"=$8,C.L31, 57&%>";7"8,C9L31, I#')%,J'K8,0EL21, R>;@"=N8,C3L41, F(*6"$7"8,C9L21,!"#"$%Q&";8,C91, Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

28 Highest growths: New 2012 FTTH/B subscribers 35% of FTTH/B subscribers in EU39 are 2012 new subscribers This rate reaches 23% in EU27 Top 4 countries for 2012 new subs in EU39 Russia Ukraine Turkey Kazakhstan + 2,963k + 569k + 330k + 300k % of EU new FTTH/B subscribers France + Spain + Portugal => 36% Scandinavian countries + Netherlands => 28% Eastern countries => 29% Rest of EU27 => 7% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

29 National Broadband plans in EU27 Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania plan to reach the objectives of the DAE Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

30 European Region FTTH/B Forecast Connected Households, 000s Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013 Note: Households connected directly to fibre (FTTH) and apartments connected via basement fibre termination (FTTB)

31 European Region FTTH Forecast On current trends, 41.5m households are expected to be FTTH/B subcribers at end-2017 = 13.3% of all homes in the region In the EU only, the total is forecast to be just over 19m = 9.7% of all homes Massive drive in Eastern Europe driven by competition, demand and low costs Average broadband speed continues to grow fast, priming the market for FTTH Stronger business case for FTTH, falling costs, lower Opex and energy costs Devices per home increasing; user-generated video/photo drive upload demand But some challenges ahead: No really compelling application yet Many Western European incumbents are still sceptical about FTTH, and technologies like VDSL vectoring are leading to further delays EU severely cut CEF, which was expected to kick-start broadband In spite of the economic crisis, the FTTH market is growing in Europe, and we expect the growth to continue in the coming years

32 Europe in context: the race to fibre maturity Country !"!# 2022 Japan Korea China Taiwan Australia USA Canada Russia France Germany Italy UK Spain Sweden Netherlands Portugal Switzerland Denmark EUROPEAN UNION After 2022 After 2022 Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2013

33 Europe in context: the race to fibre maturity Why is this important? Because according to Heavy Reading a country reaches fibre maturity when 20% of the homes are FTTH/B subscribers This graph shows which year some countries will reach fibre maturity these are projections based on current trends (as of December 2012) 12 of the 21 nations individually analyzed should achieve fibre maturity by 2017: Lithuania, Sweden, Norway, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Denmark, Slovenia, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Finland 5 of the 21 nations should still be under 10% penetration at end-2016: UK, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, and Austria Though FTTH roll-out improved markedly in 2012, the gap between countries in Europe, and between EU and non-eu area, is still widening On current trends, the EU as a whole is expected to reach Fibre maturity only in 2022 (2 years later than last year s forecast)

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35 Final conclusions Who really demanded roads and railways? Who really needed the internet and mobile devices? Not so long ago, we were happy with three channels on TV to choose from and had to go to the library to find the answers to most questions. Remember? We can t predict what will happen in 10 or 20 years, we only know that we are in the midst of the Internet revolution and have seen nothing yet! All we can do is get ready by putting in place the right tools & platforms not only for ourselves when we grow old, but mostly for our children, to ensure a sustainable future for Europe. So the question isn t: Do we need fibre?. The real question is: How long can we afford to wait?

36 FTTH Conference 2014 Join us Next Year in Stockholm! February /05/

37 FTTH Conference One of our activities to promote FTTH is our annual event, the FTTH Conference. Largest FTTH event in the world, with more than 3,000 participants from 88 countries at our last event in London Stockholm 2014 is the next edition of the conference, save the date in your diaries We hope you can make it!

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