The Fate of the US Recovery: Economic Outlook and Analysis. Dr. Mira Farka
|
|
- Ronald Barber
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Fate of the US Recovery: Economic Outlook and Analysis Dr. Mira Farka California State University, Fullerton Richey Advisors Inc. Coyote Hills Country Club, Fullerton, CA Nov 8, 2011
2 The Humpty Dumpty Economy This side of the Wall: Japan style lost decade This side of the Wall: Stagnation/Stagflation The US economy sat on a wall The US economy had a great fall All the King s horses and all the King s men Couldn t agree on how to put it together again
3 Mihaylo College of Business & Economics Rule 1 Please don t shoot the messenger Rule 2 Rule 1 is the only rule that applies
4 Main Themes The Lost Decade? Let s forget the 00s (noughties) How Much Worse was it Really? Comparison Across Recessions much, much worse Recovery Outlook No Double-Dip, but a Long Slog
5 A Decade to Forget
6 140,000 Total employment less than in 2000 but with 30 million more people (nonfarm employment, thousands of people) 138, , , , , ,000 Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Jul-10
7 210 Real Estate Prices same as in 2002 Case-Shiller Home Price and Moody s s Commercial Price (Index, Jan 2001=100) Commercial Housing
8 Not a Garden Variety Recession The Triple Whammy Deep financial crisis Balance Sheet repair consumers and banks Housing market Crisis
9 GDP Declined More than in any Postwar Recession (percent decline in RGDP from peak to trough) Cal -0.7 State Fullerton
10 The Pace of Job Destruction Was Faster and Deeper (total nonfarm employment losses, thousands of jobs) Now ,453-1, Cumulative Job losses (lhs) -1, Unemployment Rate (rhs) 2.0-8,
11 Where is my Boom? Where is my Boom?
12 Why Did We Stall? Temporary Factors Middle East turmoil and oil prices Japan Disaster disrupted supply chain More Fundamental Factors GDP Revisions Waning of Fiscal Support Eurozone Crisis Debt ceiling talks
13 13,500 RGDP Revisions Mind the Gap (RGDP, level) 13,400 13,300 13,200 13,100 13,000 12,900 12,800 RGDP Original RGDP Revision 1 GDP Revision 2-3.8% 12,700 12, % Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11
14 The Credit Downgrade The Credit Downgrade
15 Recovery Outlook No Double-Dip. but a Long Slog
16 Why no Double-dip? No main driver just a number of small gains Corporate profits and cash are high Exports will help Business investments will remain robust Low Inventory ratio should help production Production is holding steady Some labor market indicators are up
17 Why the Long Slog? Surviving the Recovery Shaken and Stirred The Long Slog Ahead Who ate my job? Labor Market Outlook What are you Doing for your Country? Consumers The Homeless Recovery Housing Blues Pray for Europe it Could Drag us Down One More Chance for Fiscal Policy
18 Problems Before the Great Recession: 25 Last Decade Added Half the Jobs of the Previous Three (employment, millions) s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
19 Problems Before the Great Recession: Recoveries are Becoming More Jobless (months to reach pre-recession recession employment peak after GDP peak) ? Now
20 We ve Failed to Add Jobs in the Right Sectors 98% of Jobs since were in Nontradable Sector (employment changes, thousands) Health 6,541 Professional Services Leisure and hospitality Government Trade Construction Education Financial Activities Professional Services Other Services Information 5,885 4,250 4,235 3,986 2,050 1,321 1,630 1,383 1, Nontradable Sector added 28.2 mn. jobs Tradable Sector added 0.6 mn. jobs Mining and logging -17 Manufacturing -4,071-7,000-2,000 3,000 8,000 13,000
21 Nontradable Sectors have Contributed Very Little to Productivity Growth (productivity growth, %) Construction -0.2% Other Services Leisure/Hospitality Education Health Care Government Retail Transportation Administration Wholesale Real Estate Professional Services Finance Manufacturing Information -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Nontradable Sector contributed only 10% to productivity grow th Tradable contributed 90% to productivity grow th Computers/Electronic 0.4% -0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6%
22 Who Ate my Job? Problems Related to the Great Recession Need to absorb 6.7 million jobs lost during recession Less labor mobility due to housing crisis - has added between 0.6% - 0.7% to unemployment rate Extension of Unemployment benefits - has added between 0.3% - 0.5% to unemployment rate WANTED: 21.5 million jobs during this decade
23 When will the Labor Market be Back to Normal? (5% unemployment rate) Jobs per Month New Jobs to keep up With Population Growth 125, ,000 Number of Years Never Back to Normal 200, ,000 Early , ,000 Late , ,000 Mid 2014
24 Jobs and the time Capsule It s NOT Dead!! It s just going to take a LOOOONG time!!!
25 What are You Doing for Your Country? 10,100 Consumption Spending below Trend (level, billions of dollars) 9,600 9,100 8,600 8,100 Consum ption 2% below trend 7,600 M ar-02 M ar-03 M ar-04 M ar-05 M ar-06 M ar-07 M ar-08 M ar-09 M ar-10 M ar-11
26 110% Households are Reducing Debt Fast But Government Debt is Rising Faster (debt, percent of GDP) 90% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Household Debt (lhs) Public Debt (rhs) 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% %
27 This is Going to Hurt!! Deleveraging is a Long and Painful Process Cross-Country Country Perspective 10-years before recession Real GDP Growth 2-3 years after recession 10 years after recession
28 50 Housing Activity has been Dismal in this Recovery Cycle (percent, year-over over-year) Year 1 of Recovery Year 2 of Recovery s 1980s 1990s 2001 now -4.3
29 70,000 Housing Woes have Caused Sharp Declines in Household Wealth (levels, billions of dollars) 30,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Net Wealth Housing W ealth 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,
30 30% Whirlwinds from Europe: When you lie down with PIIGS (Direct Bank Exposure to PIIGS, % of GDP) 25% 20% 15% 10% 26.0% 16.0% 15.5% Direct Exposure: $220 billion Indirect Exposure: $646 billion 9.0% 5% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 0% France Germany UK Spain Italy Japan USA
31 90% But Connections run Deeper Total Direct Bank Exposure to all Europe (% of GDP) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 78% 55% 47% 45% Total European Exposure: $1.8 trillion 34% 13% 12% 10% 0% France Germany UK Spain Italy Japan USA
32 Pray for Europe it could Drag us Down A European break-up is not out of the question European policy response - slow and confusing US insurers have large exposure to defaults -56% of payments US total exposure to the crisis is large -through banks and insurers
33 Forgive us Our Trespasses One more Chance for Fiscal Policy First, do no Harm Next year will be the largest fiscal contraction in history Contraction is substantial enough to derail the recovery Maintain Some Support in the Short-term Proposal Effect on GDP Unemployment benefits 1.3% Reduce Employer Payroll Taxes 1.1% Reduce Employee Payroll Taxes 0.9% Expensing investment costs 0.7% Infrastructure investment 0.7%
34 In Search of a Policy Fix: Thankfully, we have options Long-Term Plan for Reducing Deficits a Must Entitlements Social Security Medicare/Medicaid Tax Reform Simplify/remove loopholes Broaden the tax base Lower marginal tax rates
35 We Tax Income/Capital/Profits Too Much and Consumption Too Little (tax revenue by sector, % of total) Incom e/capital/profits Consum ption US UK Germ any France
36 Mihaylo College of Business & Economics 2011f 2012f Real GDP Unemployment Employment (% change) National Forecasts
37 Outlook? It s NOT Dead!! It s just going to take a LONG time!!!
38 Mihaylo College of Business & Economics Thank you for not shooting me!!! Questions? Mira Farka (657)
Surviving the Recovery: Economic Outlook and Analysis. Dr. Mira Farka
Surviving the Recovery: Economic Outlook and Analysis Dr. Mira Farka California State University, Fullerton PIHRA, District 8 Buena Park, CA Nov 10, 2011 The Humpty Dumpty Economy This side of the Wall:
More informationU.S., CALIFORNIA AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY OVERVIEW AND FORECAST
U.S., CALIFORNIA AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY OVERVIEW AND FORECAST Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton May 16, 2011 Riverside County, Board of Supervisors Will the real
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationEconomic and Fiscal Update
Economic and Fiscal Update OCTOBER 2012 Donald J. Bruce, Professor Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 88Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2
More informationRECOVERY CONTINUES FOR LOGISTICS REAL ESTATE
RECOVERY CONTINUES FOR LOGISTICS REAL ESTATE World events trigger soft patch The global economic soft patch in the first half of 2011 was primarily caused by the cost of oil reaching $114 per barrel, rising
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More information2013 San Diego Economic Outlook. Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments November 15, 2012
2013 San Diego Economic Outlook Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments November 15, 2012 The Problem Gross Domestic Product Trillion$ Annual Gap Potential GDP Actual GDP 1990-2012
More informationThe Arkansas Economic Outlook
The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Arkansas Economic Development Institute, UALR December 1, 2017 Overview Review of Economic Conditions: Output
More informationAhmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama
US Economic Outlook Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama Composite Can and Tube Institute Annual Meeting Point Clear, Alabama May
More informationSpanish economic outlook. June 2017
Spanish economic outlook June 2017 1 2 3 Spanish economy a pleasant surprise Growth drivers Forecasts once again bright One of the most dynamic economies in Europe Spain growing at a faster rate than EMU
More informationebr.eller.arizona.edu
Sponsored by Eller College Dean and Halle Chair in Leadership JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. Today s written analysis and slides are available from our Award-Winning Website: Director Economic and Business Research
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University Moderate growth continued in the United States economy through the second quarter of 2013, though forecasters had anticipated an acceleration
More informationThe Arkansas Economic Outlook
The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 16, 2016 The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily
More informationNational Economic Conditions. Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby
National Economic Conditions Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby Percent Change Recovery is Technically Underway 8 Quarter-Quarter Growth in Real GDP 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 I II III IV I II III
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationOntario Economic Accounts
SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 April, May, June Ontario Economic Accounts ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE Table of Contents ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Highlights 1 Ontario s Economy Continues to Grow Expenditure Details 2
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationSingle-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
More informationMore Jobs, a Growing Economy, and a Stronger Middle Class
More Jobs, a Growing Economy, and a Stronger Middle Class Today, Canada leads all Group of Seven (G7) countries in economic growth and Canadians are feeling more confident about the future whether their
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationGlobal Economic Overview. - Global Financial Instability & Outlook - Green shoots or weeds? - Ramifications for Australia
Global Economic Overview - Global Financial Instability & Outlook - Green shoots or weeds? - Ramifications for Australia Alan Oster - Group Chief Economist 1 Apr-2 Jan-3 Oct-3 Jul-4 Apr-5 Jan-6 Oct-6 Jul-7
More informationU.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationInspiring consumer confidence in challenging economic times. Graham Pickett Lead Partner Travel, Hospitality & Leisure June 2013
Inspiring consumer confidence in challenging economic times Graham Pickett Lead Partner Travel, Hospitality & Leisure June 2013 Inspiring consumer confidence in challenging economic times Agenda Europe
More informationEconomic and Fiscal Update. Ben Rosenfield, Controller Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist City and County of San Francisco January 23, 2018
Economic and Fiscal Update Ben Rosenfield, Controller Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist City and County of San Francisco January 23, 2018 San Francisco Unemployment Rate Continues to Find New Lows Now Down
More informationThe Arkansas Economic Outlook
The Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 5, 2015 Disclaimer: The views expressed are my own, and do
More informationMinnesota s Economic Outlook for 2013 and Beyond. Tom Stinson October 2012
Minnesota s Economic Outlook for 2013 and Beyond Tom Stinson October 2012 FY 2014-15 Budget Planning ($ in millions) FY 2012-13 FY 2014-15 $ Difference % Change Forecast Revenues $33,867 $35,861 $1,994
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationWorld Economic Outlook
World Economic Outlook Marco E. Terrones Assistant to the Director Research Department, IMF May 2012 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationThe First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
More informationUS$m mn
Jamaica and the Global Financial Crisis Outline Pre-Stand By Jamaica Jamaica Debt Exchange pre-condition to the IMF-SBA Post-Stand By Jamaica Key Issues 2 3 PRE-STAND BY JAMAICA Persistent national savings
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth
More information2012 Economic Outlook. Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments December 15, 2011
2012 Economic Outlook Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments December 15, 2011 Three Trends to Watch Job Growth Consumption Expenditures Disposable Income Growth US Payroll Jobs
More informationThe Long Hard Slog BY JASON M. THOMAS
Economic Outlook August 26, 2011 The Long Hard Slog BY JASON M. THOMAS Economic data received since the end of July point to an economy that is substantially weaker than most observers would have anticipated
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close
More informationPNC Investment Perspective
March/April 2014 PNC Investment Perspective Decoupling of Developed and Emerging Markets? Jim Dunigan Mr. Dunigan is Executive Vice President and Managing Executive, Investments for PNC Asset Management
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist
Robert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Office of Economic Development and International Trade Miami-Dade County cruzr1@miamidade.gov / www.miamidade.gov/oedit Office of Economic Development and International
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationPaul Sommers Seattle University February 2009
The Economy and the Regional Construction Market Paul Sommers Seattle University February 2009 Employment falling, financial market chaos continues Extraordinary policy measures taken by both the Fed and
More informationThe Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment
Economic Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? Jon Haveman Chief Economist, BAC Economic Institute October, 211 The Great Recession 1-2 Punch of Credit Crisis and Consumer Retrenchment 6 GDP Growth (SAAR) and
More informationU.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook
U.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook Missouri Government Finance Officers Association Jason Brown Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationEconomic Update. Don Bruce Research Professor Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research. January 2019
Economic Update Don Bruce Research Professor Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research January 2019 January 2019 http://cber.haslam.utk.edu/erg/erg2019.pdf http://cber.haslam.utk.edu/ 2 National Economy
More informationQ Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
More informationEconomic & Revenue Forecast Tracking
Economic & Revenue Forecast Tracking April 2011 Employment and Financial Statement Data through 03/11 503-378-3455 OEA.info@state.or.us http://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/index.shtml A. Macroeconomic Environment
More informationSan Antonio Business and Economics Society October 27, The U.S. Economic Outlook: Soft Patch, Sink Hole, or Springboard?
San Antonio Business and Economics Society October 27, 2004 The U.S. Economic Outlook: Soft Patch, Sink Hole, or Springboard? Kevin L. Kliesen Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Not an official
More informationIT STARTS HERE. Daniel R. DiMicco, Executive Chairman Nucor Corporation October 16, 2013
IT STARTS HERE Daniel R. DiMicco, Executive Chairman Nucor Corporation October 16, 2013 1 Nucor in Ohio Nucor is the largest steel producer in U.S. Headquartered in Charlotte, NC NS-Marion Bar Mill David
More informationThe next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation. Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
The next 15 years Is there a New Normal ahead? Delaware Investments Presentation Richard C Marston Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Outline 1. Is there a New Normal ahead for stocks? 2. Is the
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
More informationNational & Colorado. Economic Update. Alison Felix Economist & Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch
National & Colorado Economic Update Alison Felix Economist & Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect
More informationKeith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor
The Outlook for the Texas Economy Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor National Economic Overview Growth in US Economy Positive But Sluggish Market working to heal itself asset prices falling, inflation
More informationRecap of 2017: The Best Year in a Decade
NOVEMBER 217 Recap of 217: The Best Year in a Decade Macroeconomic conditions remained favorable for housing and mortgage markets in 217. Despite challenges, the housing markets remain on track for their
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationUnemployment and the Labor Market
CHAPTER 7 Unemployment and the Labor Market Modified for ECON 2204 by Bob Murphy 2016 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved IN THIS CHAPTER, YOU WILL LEARN: about the natural rate of unemployment: what
More informationThe 2015 C2ER Annual Conference & LMI Institute Annual Forum
The 2015 C2ER Annual Conference & LMI Institute Annual Forum DR. TOM POTIOWSKY NORTHWEST ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTER DIRECTOR June 11, 2015 NORTHWEST ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTER COLLEGE OF URBAN AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
More informationIllinois Job Index. Growth Rate %
Illinois Job Index Release Data Issue 03/14/2011 Jan 1990 / Jan 2011 2011.02 www.real.illinois.edu For January Illinois Job Index, the Nation, RMW and the state all had positive job growth. The monthly
More informationGENERAL FUND REVENUE & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. October 17, 2008
GENERAL FUND REVENUE & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 17, 2008 Highlights Downward economic trends in the economy continue to effect economy-based taxes such as the sales tax and personal income withholding
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationEconomic Update. Air & Waste Management Association. Georgia Chapter. Michael Chriszt Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 4, 2013
1 Economic Update Air & Waste Management Association Georgia Chapter The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, or the Federal Reserve System.
More information2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast
2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast Ching-Cheng Chang Ray Y. Chou Kamhon Kan Shin-Kun Peng Wen-Jen Tsay Academia Sinica, Institute of Economics December 16, 2014 2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast : Continuing moderate
More informationAbenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth. Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund
Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Abenomics: from where to where? What is the right benchmark? Recovery,
More information2012 Economic Outlook. Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments April 11, 2012
2012 Economic Outlook Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments April 11, 2012 Big Picture State of the Recovery Three Key Growth Trends Jobs Disposable Income Consumption Expenditures
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationThe California Economy Recession, Forecast, Budget, Issues
The California Economy Recession, Forecast, Budget, Issues City National Bank Annual Economic Forecast Conference Stephen Levy, CCSCE February 2, 2010 California Economy and Budget Outlook and Issues Economy
More informationGlobal Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook. Jan 2010 Rhys Herbert
Global Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook Jan 21 Rhys Herbert rherbert@oxfordeconomics.com Which scenario do you favour? Short-term outlook (a) W -shaped cycle Growth initially boosted by inventory rebuild
More informationThe next recession will not be. The Great Recession. Damon Runberg, Economist Oregon Employment Department
The next recession will not be The Great Recession Damon Runberg, Economist Oregon Employment Department Why the fears? Simplified Business Cycle Peak 2 consecutive quarters of GDP declines Wages Rise
More informationJapan s s Lost Decade: From Crisis to Recovery
Japan s s Lost Decade: From Crisis to Recovery Istanbul October 6, 29 James Gordon Senior Advisor Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund 1 We revisit Japan s lost decade for potential
More informationWhat could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper
What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper acooper@oxfordeconomics.com June 2011 What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? New stage in Eurozone debt crisis: first
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
20/12/2011 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Future cumulative inflation next 12 CPIs (through November 2012 CPI) Inflation
More informationPortugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012
Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation
More informationManaging the Downturn Presentation to ABAF. Paris, 10 June 2009
Managing the Downturn Presentation to ABAF Paris, 10 Introduction Chuck Evans Partner PwC Paris Business Restructuring Services UK chartered accountant specialised in corporate recovery based in Paris
More informationWHAT THE EURO CRISIS MEANS FOR TAXPAYERS AND THE U.S. ECONOMY, PART 1 DECEMBER 15, 2011
WHAT THE EURO CRISIS MEANS FOR TAXPAYERS AND THE U.S. ECONOMY, PART 1 DECEMBER 15, 2011 Anthony B. Sanders Distinguished Professor of Real Estate Finance, George Mason University, and Senior Scholar, Mercatus
More informationJoseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery
Joseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery Remarks by Mr Joseph S Tracy, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York, 28
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationThe Recovery Downshifts But Not In Reverse
Chapman University A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research FOR RELEASE: ONLINE: June 16, 211; 1: a.m. PRINT: June 17, 211 CONTACT: James Doti, President and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business
More informationOutlook for the Texas Economy. Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016
Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016 Research Economist Texas Society of Architects Contents 1. U.S. Economic Outlook 2. Texas Economic Outlook 3. Challenges and
More informationWHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM?
WHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM? Jean-Pierre Aubry, Associate Fellow, CIRANO Annual conference of the Canadian Economic Association HEC, Montréal, May 30th
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationC H A P T E R 1 T H E I L L I N O I S R E P O R T
C H A P T E R 1 8 T H E I L L I N O I S R E P O R T 2 0 1 3 C H A P T E R 1 Giertz After the Great Recession, Where is the Great Recovery? By J. Fred Giertz This chapter provides a broad overview of trends
More informationComments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff
Comments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff Marc Hayford Department of Economics December 3, 2012 Themes in the Outlook 1 st Theme: Substantial Slack in the U.S. economy 16,000 15,000
More informationZambia s Economic Outlook
Zambia s Economic Outlook F R A N C I S C H I P I M O D I R E C T O R E C O N O M I C S B A N K O F Z A M B I A Z A M B I A I N V E S T M E N T C O N F E R E N C E N O V E M B E R 4, 2 0 1 5 L O N D O
More informationSolutions Conference Year End Global Economy & World Political Outlook Leon C. LaBrecque, JD, CPA, CFP, CFA RAIN IN EUROPE?
Solutions Conference Year End 2014 Global Economy & World Political Outlook Leon C. LaBrecque, JD, CPA, CFP, CFA RAIN IN EUROPE? Global Equity Markets: Returns EAFE Return to Reach 2007 peak* EME Return
More informationChapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics
Chapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics Principles of Macroeconomics I. Economics as a Social Science A. Economics is the social science that studies the choices that individuals, businesses, governments,
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary May 29, 2012 Policymakers, Pundits, and Politicians Eye the May Jobs Report John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The May jobs report is
More informationEconomic Outlook 2011/ /10/2010
GOOD NEWS OUR ECONOMY IS GROWING Professor Emeritus of Economics Thomas R. Brown Professor in Economics Education WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO A FULL RECOVERY WORST RECOVERY SINCE
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationTo understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been
To understand where the U.S. Economy is going, we need to understand where we have been From 2008:1-2009:2, the worst recession since Great Depression, with a slow recovery from 2009:3-2013:1. Historical
More informationGrowing for nearly a decade. 114 months and counting, through December Will become longest Post-War expansion if it lasts through July
Economic Update Closing in on Expansion Record Byron Gangnes Professor of Economics Senior Research Fellow, UHERO University of Hawaii at Manoa VLI February 219 Hawaii Island Growing for nearly a decade
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Miami-Dade County 305-375-1879 cruzr1@miamidade.gov www.miamidade.gov/economicdevelopment Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 1 Local economic indicators
More informationWorcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 13, Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Worcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 3, 25 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston X Not this lady X Not this guy 2 26:Jan 26:Sep 27: 28:Jan
More information