ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN IN SEE

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN IN SEE The Albanian economy is expected to grow by. this year, and by. in, according to the recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Inflationary pressures will remain subdued as the consumer price index is expected to grow by. in and to accelerate to. in, while in the fiscal sector the IMF expects the deficit to shrink to. of the expected annual GDP and then to. for the same years. In the external sector, the current account deficit will moderate to. of GDP in and. in the next year. In the October WEO, the IMF revised upwards its outlook for Bulgaria s real GDP in to. from. in the April WEO, while it expects real GDP to reach. in. Inflationary pressures are expected to remain subdued as the consumer price index is expected to grow by. in and to accelerate to. in, while in the fiscal sector the IMF expects a deficit of. of the expected annual GDP in both and. Further, the current account deficit will moderate to. of GDP in and. in the next year. The Cypriot economy is expected to contract by. this year, and by. in, based on the recent IMF outlook, while inflation is expected to reach. and then decelerate to. for the same years. In the fiscal sector, the IMF expects the deficit to moderate to. of the expected annual GDP in and. in, while the current account deficit will reach. of GDP in and. in the next year. According to the October WEO, the IMF expects Romania to grow by. and improve significantly to. in, whereas inflation is expected to reach. and. for the same years. The fiscal deficit is expected to moderate to. of the expected annual GDP in and. in, while the current account deficit will be. in both and. In the October WEO, the IMF revised downwards its outlook for Serbia s real GDP in to -. from. in the April WEO, while it expects real GDP to recover to. in. Inflationary pressures are expected to increase as the consumer price index is expected to grow by. in and accelerate to. in, while in the fiscal sector the IMF expects the deficit to widen to. of the expected annual GDP in and. in. Further, the current account deficit will reach. of GDP in and. in the next year. Bilateral Exchange Rates vs. the Euro ( October ) RSD RON LEK - Year to Date Change CDS Y USD bps bps -Apr- -May- -Jun- -Jul- -Sep- -Oct- -Nov- -Dec- -Jan- -Mar- -Apr- -May- -Jun- -Jul- -Aug- -Oct- -Nov- -Dec- -Jan- -Feb- -Apr- -May- -Jun- -Jul- -Aug- -Sep- Bulgaria (L) Romania (L) Cyprus (R) Real GDP () Albania Bulgaria Cyprus Romania Serbia Table of Economic Forecasts Inflation Fiscal Balance ( GDP) Current Account Balance ( GDP)

2 Α. ALBANIA The Albanian economy recovered significantly in Q as real GDP increased by. compared to a contraction of. in Q and +. in Q. The main driver of growth in Q was the recovery of the industry and telecoms sector, while we must note that during Q the whole SEE area was hit by extreme adverse weather conditions, which limited economic activity. On a quarterly basis, real GDP increased in Q by. from a decrease of. in the previous quarter. Further, the economic sentiment index in Q decreased for a fourth consecutive quarter to., due to a decline in the construction and services sectors. (Graph.) Inflationary pressures moderated marginally in September when compared to the previous months as inflation increased by. from. in August and. in September of the previous year. In monthly terms, the consumer price index increased by. in September from. the previous month. (Graph.) The fiscal deficit in the first eight months of the year shrunk to. of the expected annual GDP from. for the same period in, mainly due to higher revenues, which increased by. and lower expenditures, which fell by. YoY. (Graph.) In the most recent lending survey conducted by the Bank of Albania (BoA), we note that the lending conditions in Q for businesses and households improved relative to the previous quarters and are in fact expected to further relax in the following months. (Graph.). Real GDP & Economic Sentiment Index. Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices - - Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GDP (L) Economic Sentiment Index ( R) Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Base Effect (t-) (L) Inflation ( R) Food Prices ( R). Fiscal Balance. Current Account Balance & FDIs (-month rolling sum) - GDP January Jan.-Feb. Jan.-Mar. Jan.-Apr. Jan.-May Jan.-Jun. Jan.-July Jan.-Aug. Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Oct. Jan.-Nov. Jan.-Dec. GDP GDP Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Foreign Direct Investments (-month rolling sum, L) Current Account Balance (-month rolling sum, R)

3 . Producer Price Index & Retail Trade. Total Deposits & Unemployment Rate - Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Producer Price Index (L) Retail Trade ( R) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Deposits (L) Unemployment Rate ( R). Quality of Loan Portfolio. NPL s & Capital Adequacy Ratio Quality of Loan Portfolio June.. Standard exposures Doubtful loans.. Sub-standard loans Loss loans. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Capital Adequacy Ratio-(TIER-) ( R) Non-Performing Loans Total Loans (L). Credit Expansion & Total Deposits. Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) - Aug Oct Dec Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Credit to the Private Sector Total Deposits Tight MC Easing MC EUR/ALL Interest rate MCI Oct Dec Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Note: The index is a weighted sum of the annual change in the policy rate ( weight) and the fx rate ( weight). EUR/ALL & Imports to Exports Coverage. Central Bank s Lending Survey Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- - - Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EUR/ALL (L) Percentage of Cover ( R) Business Loans Household Loans

4 Β. BULGARIA In August, industrial production showed signs of recovery as there was an increase of., compared to. in July and. in August last year. However, domestic demand remains subdued as retail trade contracted for yet another month, by. from. and. for the same months. (Graph.) Inflationary pressures in September increased as food and energy prices contributed to the increase in the consumer price index. Specifically, inflation in September reached. from. in August and. in September, while food prices increased by. from. and. for the same months. (Graph.) The government approved the Draft Budget on October th based on a. growth in and a fiscal deficit of. of the expected annual GDP. (Graph.) The banking sector remains well capitalised as the Tier I capital adequacy ratio reached. in Q from. in Q and. the same quarter in, while the solvency ratio remained stable in the first quarter compared to Q at.. (Graph.). Leading Indicators. Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Consumer Confidence Index(L) Industrial Confidence Indicator(L) Economic Sentiment Index(R ) - - May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Base Effect(L) Inflation(R) Food Prices(R). Fiscal Balance. Current Account Balance & FDIs (-month rolling sum) - GDP January February March April May June July August September October November December GDP GDP Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- FDI(L) Current Account(R )

5 . Fiscal Reserves. Industrial Production & Retail Sales - ΥοΥ Aug Dec Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr Aug Dec Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr Aug Dec Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Fiscal Reserves in the Central Bank Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Industrial Production(m MA). Economic Trend. Foreign Claims ln (GDP, mn BGN) Q/ Q/ Q/ Estimated output loss (in real terms) y =.x +. R =. ln (GDP, mn BGN) *trend is estimated between Q/ and Q/ Q/ Q/ Q/ Q/. Q/ Linear (ln (GDP, mn BGN)) GDP of Bulgaria Retail Sales Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Austrian Banks Greek Banks Italian Banks. FX Reserves & Monetary Base. Unemployment Rate, NPLs & Capital Adequacy Jul- Oct- Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- FX Reserves as Short-Term External Debt(R ) Reserves/Monetary Base(L) q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Tier I Capital Adequacy ratio (L) NPLs of total (R ) Unemployment rate ( R). Deposits & Unemployment Rate. Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) Aug Dec Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr Aug Dec Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Aug- Deposits(L) Unemployment Rate(R ) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Interest rate MCI Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Tight MC Easing MC Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in interest rate SOFIBOR-m ( weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate - NEER, weight)

6 C. CYPRUS The international rating agency Standard & Poor s lowered the country s long-term sovereign rating to B from BB with Negative outlook on October th. The main reason for this downgrade is the significant deterioration in Cyprus creditworthiness since the last downgrade on August nd, as domestic political constraints have prevented a timely agreement with the EU, IMF and ECB on an economic stimulus package. Furthermore, the heavy reliance of government funding on the issuing of treasury bills increases the risk of refinancing, while the deterioration in the domestic loan portfolio of the banking sector has increased uncertainty about the magnitude of the burden this will impose on government debt. Inflation in September increased marginally by. compared to. in August and. in September last year, due to the deceleration of the annual growth rate in food prices, at. from. and -. for the same months. In monthly terms, the consumer price index increased by. in September compared to. in the previous month. (Graph.) The fiscal deficit during the period January-August moderated significantly to. of the expected annual GDP, compared to. in the same period in, as public expenditures decreased and budget revenues grew. Specifically, public expenditures decreased by. in January-August, with capital expenditures recording the largest fall, while budget revenues increased by. due to direct taxes. (Graph.) Tourist arrivals increased significantly in September by. compared to. in the previous month and. in September. (Graph.). Real GDP & Economic Sentiment Index. Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GDP (L) Economic Sentiment Index ( R) Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Base Effect (t-) (L) Inflation ( R) Food Prices ( R). Fiscal Balance. Current Account Balance GDP GDP January February March April May June July August September October November December January-March January - June January- September January- December

7 . Loan Portfolio Quality. Industrial Production, Retail Trade & Tourist Arrivals Provisions Non-Performing Loans December ' December ' September ' June ' Non-Performing Loans Total Loans. Mortgage Loans & Producers Price Index in Construction Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mortgage Loans (L) Producers Price Index in Construction (R) ΥοΥ ΥοΥ Sep Nov Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Industrial Production (L) Tourist Arrivals ( R) Retail Sales (L). Construction Cost & Building Permits - -. EUR/GBP & Tourist Revenues. GDP Trend EUR mn. May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- EUR/GBP (L) Tourist revenues, -M Moving Average ( R),,,,,,,,,, ln (GDP, mn ) Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug Q/ Construction Cost (L) Building Permits ( R) Q/ Q/ Estimated output loss (in real terms) y =.x +. R =. Q/ *trend is estimated between Q/ and Q/ Q/ Q/ Q/ ln (GDP, mn ) Linear (ln (GDP, mn )). Credit Expansion & Total Deposits. Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) - Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Credit Expansion (L) Total Deposits (L) Residents Deposits (L) Rest of the World Deposits ( R) Tight MC Easing MC Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Interest rate MCI Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in interest rate EURIBOR-m ( weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate - NEER, Q/

8 D. ROMANIA The national institute of statistics revised downwards real GDP in Q to. from. initially, due to a contraction in exports. Hence H economic activity was revised to. from.. This slowdown reflects the worse than expected agricultural season, issues connected to the EU funds withdrawal and subdued external demand. (Graph.) In September, inflation accelerated significantly to. compared to. in August and. in September, due to the increase in food, energy and administer prices, a trend that we observe across the SEE area in recent months. Specifically, food prices in September increased by. from. in August and. in the same month of last year. (Graph.) The industrial production index decreased by. in August compared to an increase of. in July and. in August, while exports increased by. compared to a contraction of. and +. for the same months. (Graph.) According to National Bank of Romania (NBR) calculations, non-performing loans as a percentage of total loans increased significantly in August to. from. in August, while the Tier I capital adequacy ratio reached. from. for the same months. (Graph. &.). Real GDP & Economic Sentiment Index. Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices - Q ΥοΥ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GDP (L) Economic Sentiment Index ( R) Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Base Effect (t-) (L) Inflation ( R) Food Prices ( R). Fiscal Balance. Current Account Balance & FDIs (-month rolling sum) GDP January Jan-Feb Jan-Mar Jan-Apr Jan-May Jan-June Jan-July Jan-Aug Jan-Sep Jan-Oct Jan-Nov Jan-Dec GDP GDP Sep- Nov- Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul Foreign Direct Investments (-month rolling sum, L) Current Account Balance (-month rolling sum, R)

9 . Loan Portfolio Quality. Industrial Production & Exports.. Loan Portfolio Quality August Standard Exposures Substandard Exposures Loss Loans. Watch Exposures Doubtful Loans - Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Industrial Production, -M MA (L) Exports, -M MA ( R). GDP Trend. FX Reserves Short Term External Debt ln (GDP, mn RON) Q/ Q/ Estimated output loss (in real terms) Q/ y =.x +. R =. Q/ Q/ ln (GDP, mn RON) *trend is estimated between Q/ and Q/ Q/ Q/. Q/ Linear (ln (GDP, mn RON)) EUR mn. Jul Oct Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- FX Reserves Short Term External Debt ( R) FX Reserves (L). Credit Expansion & FX Rate. Deposits & Unemployment Rate - ΥοΥ Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Credit Expansion to the Private Sector (L) Credit Expansion to Foreign Currency (L) EUR/RON ( R). Unemployment Rate, NPL s & Capital Adequacy Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Unemployment Rate ( R) Non Performing Loans of Total Loans (L) Capital Adequacy Ratio, TIER- (L) ΥοΥ Sep- Nov- Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Total Deposits (L) Unemployment Rate ( R). Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) - - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Interest rate MCI Tight MC Easing MC Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in interest rate BUBOR-m ( weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate - NEER, weight) - -

10 E. SERBIA The industrial production index contracted marginally in August, by. compared to a decrease of. in July and. in August last year, while the retail trade index increased by. from. and a decrease of. for the same months. (Graph.) The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided in its October monetary policy meeting to increase the key interest rate by b.p. to., due to the increasing risk of accelerating inflationary pressures and public debt. The NBS notes that the increase in food and administer prices in the last few months were higher that expected, thus increasing inflationary pressures. However, it is also expected that low aggregate demand and the further stabilisation of fiscal expenditures will act as disinflationary factors in the near term. (Graph.) The NBS revised downwards its economic activity expectation for the current year to a contraction of. from -. initially, due to the unfavourable agricultural activity caused by the drought. Specifically, the NBS expects that agricultural production will contract by. in as opposed to the initial expectations of., resulting in a negative contribution of pps in real GDP. Additionally, the NBS estimates that real GDP will recover in to. YoY due to recoveries in exports and, to a lesser extent, investments. The European Commission's recent report on the country emphasized that a key priority for Serbia's accession to the European Union is the normalization of the country's relations with Kosovo. Furthermore, the Commission noted that Serbia has not shown progress in the previous year on the smooth functioning of the economy and should make more efforts to restructure the economy so as to be able to respond to competitive pressures within the European Union.. Leading Indicators. Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices ΥοΥ Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- - Industrial Production(-M MA) Retail Trade(-M MA) Base Effect(L) Inflation(R ) Food Prices(R ). Fiscal Balance. Current Account Balance & FDIs (-month rolling sum) January GDP February March April May June July August September October November December GDP May Jul Sep Nov Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Foreign Direct Investments(L) Current Account Deficit(R ) GDP

11 . Carry Over Effect. Retail Trade & Wages pps - Carry-over effect Real GDP growth Growth within the year May- Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Retail Trade. Public Debt. Foreign Claims GDP Public Debt. Central Bank Interventions in the Domestic FX Market & EUR/RSD - Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- FX Interventions (sale of EUR mn.,l) FX Rate EUR/RSD(R ) GDP of Serbia Wages Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Austrian Banks Greek Banks Italian Banks. Capital Adequacy & NPL s Sep Dec Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Tier Capital Adequacy Ratio(L) NPL total loans(r ). Deposits & Credit in the Private Sector. Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) Aug- Nov- Feb May Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Deposits Credit Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Interest rate MCI Aug Nov Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Tight MC Easing MC Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in policy rate ( weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate - NEER, weight)

12 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS & MARKETS DIVISION Lekkos Ilias Chief Economist Greek Economy Staggel Irene Economist Kefalas Konstantinos Junior Economist Developed Economies Patikis Vasilleios Head of Developed Markets Polychronopoulos Dionysis Economic Analyst piraeusbank.gr Southeastern Europe Rotsika Dimitria Junior Economist Sectoral Studies Daggalidis Athanasios Senior Economist piraeusbank.gr Vlachou Paraskevi Economic Analyst Fraggoulidou Ifigenia Junior Economist Secretary Papioti Evangelia Secretary Disclaimer: This note constitute an investment advertisement, is intended solely for information purposes and it cannot in any way be considered investment advice, offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. The information included in this note may not be construed as suitable investment for the holder, nor may it be considered as an instrument to accomplish specific investment goals or relevant financial needs of the holder and may neither be reckoned as a substitute to relevant contractual agreements between the Bank and the holder. Before entering into any transaction each individual investor should evaluate the information contained in this note and not base his/her decision solely on the information provided. This note cannot be considered investment research and consequently it was not compiled by Piraeus Bank according to the requirements of the law that are intended to ensure independence in the sector of investment research. Information comprised in this note is based on publically available sources that are considered to be reliable. Piraeus Bank cannot be held accountable for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this note. Views and estimates brought forward in this note represent domestic and international market trends on the date indicated in the note and they are subject to alteration without previous warning. Piraeus Bank may also include in this note investment research done by third parties. This information is not modified in any way, consequently the Bank cannot be held accountable for the content. The Piraeus Bank Group is and organization with a considerable domestic and international presence, and provides a great variety of investment services. In cases where conflicts of interest issues should arise while Piraeus Bank or the rest of the companies of the group provide investment services in relation to the information provided in this note, Piraeus Bank and the companies of the Group should be underlined that (the list is not exhaustive): a) No restrictions apply in dealing for own account, or with regards to trading in relation to portfolios managed by Piraeus Bank or companies of its group before the publication of this note, or with regards to trading before an initial public offer. b) It is possible that investment or additional services are provided to the issuers included in this note against a fee. c) It is possible that Bank or any of its subsidiaries participate in the share capital of any of the issuers included in this note or may attract other interests financial or not from them. d) The Bank or any of its subsidiaries may act a market maker or an underwriter for any of the issuers included in the note. e) Piraeus Bank may have issued similar notes with different or incompatible content with the content of this note. It should be explicitly noted that: a) Figures refer to past performances and past performances do not constitute a safe indication for future performances. b) Figures constitute simulation of past performances and they are not a safe indication of future performances. c) Any projections or other estimates are not safe indications for future performances. d) Taxation treatment of information provided in this note may differ according to the rules that govern each individual investor. Therefore the holder should seek independent advice in relation to taxation rules that may affect him/her. e) Piraeus Bank is not under any obligation to keep data and information provided herein updated.