BANCA NAŢIONALĂ BANCA ROMÂNIEI

Transcription

1 BANCA NAŢIONALĂ BANCA ROMÂNIEI A

2 Stylized facts Report by McKinsey Global Institute (2010): Almost every major financial crisis in modern history has been followed by a significant period of deleveraging Significant episode of deleveraging - the ratio of total debt to GDP declines for at least three consecutive years and falls by 10 or more 45 such episodes since 1930 that lasted 6 to 7 years on average and total debt to GDP decreased by 25% Usually deleveraging begins a few years after the start of the crisis

3 SEVEN PERSPECTIVES ON DELEVERAGING 1. European banks exposures on Romania 2. External financing of the Romanian banks 3. Credit to GDP 4. Leverage ratio 5. Loan-to-deposit ratio 6. Non-financial private sector indebtedness 7. Asset sales

4 1 st perspective (a): Bank exposures on CESEE countries (BIS data) European banks exposures (% of March 2009 level) Poland Czech Republic Developing Europe Bulgaria Romania All countries Hungary Mar.2009 Dec.2009 Dec.2010 Dec.2011 Jun.2012 Bulgaria Hungary Romania All countries Czech Republic Poland Developing Europe European banks exposures on aggregate (vis-a-vis all countries) are at 94% of the March 2009 level (1st Vienna Initiative), without clear signs of reductions in recent period Developing Europe (28 countries) benefited, on aggregate, of more financing from European banks (at 106% of the March 2009 level) Bank exposures on Romania are currently at 94,4% of the March 2009 level Note: Exposures are denominated in euro Source: BIS, Bloomberg, NBR calculations

5 Q212 1 st perspective (b): Bank exposures on CESEE countries (BIS data) European banks exposures (% of GDP) procent Bulgaria Hungary Romania Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Poland Czech Republic Poland Note: Exposures are denominated in euro Source: BIS, Bloomberg, NBR calculations European bank exposures to GDP by county suggests that from 2009 onwards most countries registered deleveraging trends Generally the adjustment magnitude of this indicator was proportional to the initial level Given different levels of exposures among countries (between 50% and 90% of GDP), the deleveraging future trends (magnitude and duration) could depend on the current level of indebtedness

6 ian.11 feb.11 mar.11 apr.11 mai.11 iun.11 iul.11 aug.11 sep.11 oct.11 nov.11 dec.11 ian.12 feb.12 mar.12 apr.12 mai.12 iun.12 iul.12 aug.12 2 nd perspective (a): Romanian banks external financing External liabilities of Romanian banks from non-resident financial institutions bln. euro Romanian banks financing from nonresident financial institutions decreased by 8,9% (2 bln. euros) during December 2011 August 2012, especially on the segment of short term financing (up to 6 months) There was an increase of the share of long term financing (more than 2 years) over 2 years 1-2 years 6-12 months 1-6 months < 1 month Source: NBR (banks reporting to the Supervision Department)

7 ian.11 feb.11 mar.11 apr.11 mai.11 iun.11 iul.11 aug.11 sep.11 oct.11 nov.11 dec.11 ian.12 feb.12 mar.12 apr.12 mai.12 iun.12 iul.12 aug.12 2 nd perspective (b): Romanian banks external financing External liabilities in total assets (banks split by the origin of their capital) Total Romanian banks Greek banks French banks Austrian banks The share of external liabilities in total assets embarked on a slight downtrend in 2012 This tendency is most visible for French-capital banks, whereas for Greek, Austrian and Romanian-capital banks, the level remained broadly unchanged Greek and Austrian-capital banks are the most dependent on external financing Source: NBR Monetary Survey

8 dec.08 mar.09 iun.09 sep.09 dec.09 mar.10 iun.10 sep.10 dec.10 mar.11 iun.11 sep.11 dec.11 mar.12 iun.12 3 rd perspective: Credit-to-GDP Private Credit*-to-GDP** Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Poland Romania UE27 UE27 Bulgaria Hungary Czech R. Poland Romania Credit-to-GDP is above the December 2008 level for most EU countries, with one exception (Hungary) The uptrend manifested in 2009 is mainly explained by the decreasing GDP The slight downtrend afterwards is again attributable to some extent to the recovery in GDP, with credit remaining rather stable Source: ECB, Eurostat, NBR calculations Note: *Non-government credit, **Annualized GDP

9 mar.09 iun.09 sep.09 dec.09 mar.10 iun.10 sep.10 dec.10 mar.11 iun.11 sep.11 dec.11 mar.12 iun th perspective: Leverage ratio Leverage ratio* (banks split by the origin of capital) Romanian banks French banks Total Austrian banks Greek banks Note: *Leverage ratio = Own funds / Total assets The jump in leverage ratio is attributable to implementing IFRS Source: NBR, NBR calculations Leverage ratio evolved in an orderly manner, the jump in this indicator being attributable to the IFRS implementation starting January 2012 Deleveraging trends for Frenchcapital banks Leveraging trends for Romaniancapital banks Relatively stable dynamics for Austrian and Greek-capital banks

10 ian.09 apr.09 iul.09 oct.09 ian.10 apr.10 iul.10 oct.10 ian.11 apr.11 iul.11 oct.11 ian.12 apr.12 iul.12 5 th perspective (a): Loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD) 150 LTD* regional comparison Hungary Romania LTD ratio knew an important adjustment in Hungary and Bulgaria EU27 Bulgaria Poland Romania and Hungary register the highest LTD ratios in the region, and also compared to the EU27 average 70 Bulgaria Hungary Romania Poland EU27 Note: * LTD for non-government sector Source: ECB, NBR calculations

11 ian.09 apr.09 iul.09 oct.09 ian.10 apr.10 iul.10 oct.10 ian.11 apr.11 iul.11 oct.11 ian.12 apr.12 iul.12 5 th perspective (b): Loan-to-deposit ratio LTD* (Romanian banks by the origin of capital) Most visible trend of decreasing LTD is for the Romanian-capital banks, but is mainly attributable to increasing deposits based on confidence considerations For Austrian and French-capital banks there is a fairly stable evolution of LTD ratio Romanian banks French banks Austrian banks Greek banks Note: * LTD for the non-government sector Source: Monetary Survey, NBR calculations

12 feb.09 mai.09 aug.09 nov.09 feb.10 mai.10 aug.10 nov.10 feb.11 mai.11 aug.11 nov.11 feb.12 mai.12 aug.12 6 th perspective (a): Non-government bank credit dynamics regional perspective 25 Non-financial private sector credit, yoy growth Credit growth for most countries remains in the positive area, but registers small numbers, up to maximum 5% (with one exception, Hungary, that is in the negative territory) Bulgaria Hungary Romania Polond EU27 Source: ECB, NBR calculations

13 feb.09 mai.09 aug.09 nov.09 feb.10 mai.10 aug.10 nov.10 feb.11 mai.11 aug.11 nov.11 feb.12 mai.12 aug th perspective (b): Non-government bank credit dynamics in Romania Non-financial private sector credit, by currency, yoy growth Total* Lei Fx* Private sector lending remains in the positive territory of growth, although the trend is negative The main engine of lending was the domestic currency loans (81,6% of the consumer loans and 57% of the companies loans granted during January September 2012) -10 The FX loans have started to lose ground against leu loans Note: *Series adjusted for FX movements Source: NBR Monetary Survey, NBR calculations

14 feb.09 mai.09 aug.09 nov.09 feb.10 mai.10 aug.10 nov.10 feb.11 mai.11 aug.11 nov.11 feb.12 mai.12 aug.12 6 th perspective (c): Non-government bank credit dynamics in Romania Non-financial private sector credit, by debtor, yoy growth Total* Companies* Households* Most of the new lending is channeled to companies Lending to households recently entered into negative growth area Banks business models are changing, lending more to tradables sectors in local currency -10 Note: *Series adjusted for FX movements Source: NBR Monetary Survey, NBR calculations

15 6 th perspective (d): Companies debt Companies DEBT* to GDP Q212 Debt to GDP dynamics reveal deleveraging trends starting 2010 for the corporate sector Companies Total Tradable Sectors Non-tradable Sectors Both leveraging before the crisis and deleveraging afterwards for the corporate sector can be attributable almost entirely to the non-tradable sector (real estate in particular) Note: * Debt - domestic credit from banks and NBFIs, and external debt from financial institutions Source: NBR, NBR calculations

16 6 th perspective (e): Households debt Household indebtedness Rapid growth and high level of households indebtedness does not support additional substantial indebtedness for the household sector The bulk of the debt service repays the consumer loans (89% of the total debt service in June 2012), and repays the FX loans (55% of the total debt service in June 2012) Source: ECB, NBR, NIS, NBR calculations

17 apr.10 iun.10 aug.10 oct.10 dec.10 feb.11 apr.11 iun.11 aug.11 oct.11 dec.11 feb.12 apr.12 iun.12 aug.12 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00-0,05-0,10 bln. eur Loans sales and purchases 7 th perspective: Asset sales Net loan sales Loans sales Loans purchases Note: Series are compiled as 3-month moving average Source: NBR Monetary Survey, NBR calculations The volume of loans net sales is not challenging The main driver of this activity is to improve the quality of loan portfolio (banks sell non-performing loans and buy-back good quality portfolios) 80% of the sold portfolio in 2011 was non-performing (of which 2/3 were households loans and 1/3 companies loans) 84% of the households loans is sold outside the group, and the discount is around 88% 83% of the companies loans is sold inside group, with a discount of about 45%