Financial Crisis under the Microscope
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1 Financial Crisis under the Microscope Arial EFSE 24and the Financial Crisis NOVI SAD, SERBIA 27 MAY
2 Donors Thank you for your attention!
3 Introduction EFSE in a nutshell 10 markets in Southeast Europe Over EUR 551 million in invested portfolio 55 partner lending institutions (PLIs) Leasing Companies, 3% MCOs, 35% Commercial Banks, 47% Microfinance Banks, 15% Monitoring data: Market data from the financial sector -> market intelligence unit Quarterly financial statements and central bank reporting from the partner lending institutions Weekly/monthly special reporting 3
4 Banking Sector 4
5 Strong credit growth in the region and in EFSE PLIs slowed down in Portfolio Growth - SEE and EFSE Portfolio* 12 Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR Aggregated Loan Portfolio EFSE Target Countries (L) Aggregated Loan Portfolio EFSE PLIs (R) Subprime Fallout Lehman Bankruptcy Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR 20 4 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 First wave of the financial crisis (after subprime) had minor (if any) effects on the region due to limited integration of SEE in international capital markets Second wave (after Lehman) spurned liquidity crisis in SEE through contagion effect and loss of consumer confidence (deposit outflows/bank runs) -> loan portfolio growth was stopped *Aggregated loan portfolios of all EFSE target countries except Ukraine and sample size of EFSE PLIs Source: EFSE PLIs and central bank data from Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia 5
6 Strong credit growth in the region and in EFSE PLIs slowed down in Portfolio Growth - SEE and EFSE Portfolio* 12 Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR Aggregated Loan Portfolio EFSE Target Countries (L) Aggregated Loan Portfolio EFSE PLIs (R) Subprime Fallout Lehman Bankruptcy Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR 20 4 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 First wave of the financial crisis (after subprime) had minor (if any) effects on the region due to limited integration of SEE in international capital markets Second wave (after Lehman) spurned liquidity crisis in SEE through contagion effect and loss of consumer confidence (deposit outflows/bank runs) -> loan portfolio growth was stopped *Aggregated loan portfolios of all EFSE target countries except Ukraine and sample size of EFSE PLIs Source: EFSE PLIs and central bank data from Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia 6
7 and the decline in banking sector confidence resulted in deposit outflows Q % -6% Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina 5% 7% Kosovo Macedonia -8% Moldova -14% Montenegro Deposit Outflow -6% -5% Deposit Inflow Romania Serbia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: EFSE PLIs 7
8 and the decline in banking sector confidence resulted in deposit outflows Q1 Q % -1% -6% -10% Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina -2% 5% Kosovo -4% 7% Macedonia -7% -8% Moldova -15% -14% Montenegro Deposit Outflow -2% -5% -6% 2% Deposit Inflow Romania Serbia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: EFSE PLIs 8
9 and the decline in banking sector confidence resulted in deposit outflows Net Deposit Flow since September 30, 2008 Q1 Q % -1% -11% -10% -7% -6% Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina -2% 3% 5% Kosovo -4% 3% 7% Macedonia -7% -15% -8% Moldova -15% -30% -14% Montenegro Deposit Outflow -2% -5% -3% -8% -6% 2% Deposit Inflow Romania Serbia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: EFSE PLIs 9
10 and the decline in banking sector confidence resulted in deposit outflows Net Deposit Flow since September 30, 2008 Q1 Q % -1% -11% -10% -7% -6% Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina -2% 3% 5% Kosovo -4% 3% 7% Macedonia -7% -15% -8% Moldova -15% -30% -14% Montenegro Deposit Outflow -2% -5% -3% -8% -6% 2% Deposit Inflow Romania Serbia -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: EFSE PLIs 10
11 Despite continuous deposit outflows, Moldovan partner banks maintained comfortable liquidity level Moldova weekly monitoring data 0% 40% Customer Deposit Outflows (L) % of Total Deposits -5% -10% -15% Liquid Assets Ratio (R) 35% 30% 25% 20% % of Total Assets -20% % NBM regulation requires 20% liquid assets Partner banks kept between 28-32% liquid assets before and after Lehman s collapse Liquid asset composition remained stable over the last 7 months Source: EFSE PLIs 11
12 Two turning points Portfolio Growth and Loans to Deposits Ratio - Sample of EFSE's Bank Portfolio* Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR Gross Loan Portfolio (L) Customer Deposits (L) Gross Loans to Deposits Ratio - EFSE Target Countries (R) Net Loans to Deposits Ratio - All (R) Net Loans to Deposits Ratio - Kosovo & Albania (R) Net Loans to Deposits - Excl. Kosovo & Albania (R) 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% Loans to Deposits Ratio 4 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 50% Already in Q gross loan portfolio in EFSE partner banks exceeded deposits Immediately after Lehman collapsed in September 2008, continuous deposit outflow and loan portfolio drop *Aggregated loan portfolios, deposits, and arithmetic average of loans to deposits ratios of all EFSE target countries (excluding Ukraine) and EFSE bank PLIs that provided intensive monitoring reports (80% of bank PLIs) Source: EFSE PLIs and central bank data from Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia 12
13 As the crisis hit, growth stopped and portfolio quality started to deteriorate Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR Portfolio Growth and Rise in Non-Performing Loans* Gross Loan Portfolio (L) Average NPL of EFSE PLIs (R) Moldova PLIs - NPLs (R) Macedonia PLIs - NPLs (R) Serbia PLIs - NPLs (R) Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % of Gross Loan Portfolio *Aggregated loan portfolios and arithmetic average of NPL ratios of all EFSE bank PLIs that provided intensive monitoring reports (80% of bank PLIs) Source: EFSE PLIs 13
14 Two causes: Negative developments in the real sector and remittances Moldova - Industrial Production 20% Y-o-Y growth rate of Industrial Production Remittance Inflows 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 120% 80% 40% 0% Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Moldova - Remittance Growth Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09-40% Source: Moldova Central Bank and Moldova State Statistical Office 14
15 The hidden beast appears with currency depreciation Foreign Currency Lending as % of Gross Loan Portfolio 90% 80% Albania Sector FYR Macedonia Sector Moldova Sector Romania Sector Serbian Sector 90% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% % EFSE PLIs Currency Depreciation (positive change indicates depreciation) ALL-USD ALL-EUR MKD-EUR MKD-USD MDL-EUR MDL-USD RON-CHF RON-EUR RSD-CHF RSD-EUR APR 08 - MAR % 6.85% 1.63% 19.37% % 5.39% 19.30% 14.09% 21.52% 16.21% OCT 08 - MAR % 6.27% 1.23% 6.75% 1.68% 7.93% 17.69% 13.20% 28.45% 23.55% Source: EFSE PLIs, central bank data, Thomson Datastream 15
16 case in point, Serbia Serbia - Household Credit and Exchange Rates Serbia Household Credit in Millions of RSD CHF & CHF-indexed EUR & EUR indexed Other FX & indexed Dinar Loans CHF-RSD EUR-RSD Value of EUR and CHF to RSD (September 2008 = 100) (upward movement indicates depreciation) Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar Large percentage of household loans denominated and indexed in FX: 78% (Mar-09) High FX-induced credit risk due to strong depreciation of Serbian Dinar since September 2008 Source: National Bank of Serbia 16
17 MCO Sector Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Montenegro 17
18 Portfolio tripled over last three years Aggregated loan portfolio of EFSE MCO PLIs (BiH, Montenegro, Kosovo) 700 Portfolio volume in Billions of EUR Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Similar growth pattern compared to banking sector: loan portfolio growth stopped in Q Source: EFSE PLIs 18
19 Liquidity risk in EFSE MCOs Jan.09 - Apr.09 - Jul.09 - Average Maturing Large Liabilities Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09 as % of Total Liabilities 10.8% 7.1% 8.3% PLI breakdown and respective volume (# of PLIs - in millions EUR) Less than 10% of total liabilities Between 10.1% and 20% of total liabilities EUR 15.8 EUR 15.9 EUR EUR 30.2 EUR 9.9 EUR 9.1 Greater than 20.1% of total liabilities 1 EUR 0.5 None None Total Large Liabilities due EUR 46.5 EUR 25.8 EUR 29.8 Source: EFSE PLIs 19
20 Bosnia & Herzegovina Total Funding Volume Composition 450 Total Funding Volume per Investor Group in Millions of EUR Governments MIVs IFIs/DFIs Commercial Banks EFSE 25.5% 24.6% 29.3% 31.2% 13.1% 12.7% 20.5% 23.2% 10.1% 9.8% 14.5% 45.5% 9.7% 18.7% 11.6% 12.9% 40.3% 9.0% 22.3% 15.6% 13.2% 15.3% 41.8% 42.8% 11.0% 12.0% 16.8% 13.3% 17.1% 16.6% Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: EFSE PLIs 20
21 Bosnia & Herzegovina Funding Provided by Commercial Banks 80 Total Outstanding Debt of EFSE MCO PLIs to BiH Commercial Banks in Millions of EUR Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: EFSE PLIs 21
22 MCO Sector BiH, Montenegro, Kosovo 28% 26% 24% Average portfolio yield decreased BiH/Montenegro PLIs Avg. Portfolio Yield Kosovo PLIs Avg. Portfolio Yield 10% 8% resulted in decrease of profitability. BiH/Montenegro PLIs Avg. ROAA Kosovo PLIs Avg. ROAA 22% 6% 4% 20% Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 5% 4% plus increases in portfolio at risk BiH/Montenegro PLIs Avg. PAR > 30 Days Kosovo PLIs Avg. PAR > 30 Days 2% 0% -2% Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 3% 2% 1% 0% Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 50% 40% 30% 20% However, still well capitalised, but BiH/Montenegro PLIs Avg. Equity to Assets Kosovo PLIs Avg. Equity to Assets 10% Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Source: EFSE PLIs 22
23 where we are now Overall similar challenges in the banking sector of the region but with some markets being affected stronger than others Loan portfolios in both the banking and MCO sectors at a standstill Significant deposit outflows over an extended period of time but for different reasons Negative real sector development combined with exchange rate imbalances put asset quality under strain MCOs are not decoupled from the crisis and the way ahead What are the most appropriate crisis mitigating measures? How should, and can, different stakeholders Central Banks, international funders, financial institutions best respond to the crisis? 23
24 Thank you you for your for Attention! your attention!
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