ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR GREATER CHEYENNE

Transcription

1 Volume XXXII - Number 2 June 2016 ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR GREATER CHEYENNE Wyoming Center for Business & Economic LCCC 1400 East College Drive Cheyenne, WY wyomingeconomicdata.com

2 Table of Contents Front Matter Preface... ii Economic Indicators for the First Quarter of 2016 Overview... 2 Labor Market... 3 General Business Activity... 7 Government Finances Financial Sector Residential Construction Commercial Property Vacancies Residential Housing Market Apartment Vacancies Demographics and Tourism Detailed Tables Cheyenne/Laramie County Profile Data Sources Communications WCBEA Phone: Editor drogers@lccc.wy.edu Staff jmcguire@lccc.wy.edu Website: Mailing Address: Wyoming Center for Business and Economic LCCC 1400 E College Drive Cheyenne, WY Editor... Denise Rogers Research Assistance... Jo McGuire Editorial Assistance... R.T. O Gara Cover Design... Cheyenne LEADS The articles appearing in this publication represent the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of funding agencies and organizations. Duplication or quotation of material in this publication is welcomed; we request that you credit

3 Preface Hard copies of this publication are no longer available. This publication and past publications are available in PDF format on our website: Sign up for our monthly e-newsletter announcing publication releases at or send us an at LCCC sincerely appreciates past and continuing cooperation of the entities listed in our data sources throughout the report. This report would not be possible without the financial support of the Cheyenne-Laramie County Economic Development Joint Powers Board and Cheyenne LEADS. ii

4 Economic Indicators Analysis 1

5 Economic Indicators for the First Quarter 2016 Overview The data for the first quarter of 2016 confirm what we have been expecting the economy of Laramie County could not continue unscathed by the economic downturn in the state of Wyoming. The state economic downturn is well documented and we are now seeing a weakening in the Laramie County economy. The economic indicators in this report demonstrate a continuation of the historical pattern: Laramie County s economy fluctuates with the economy of the State of Wyoming, but is not as volatile. So, while the Laramie County economy declined during this quarter, the decline was not nearly as severe as that experienced by the state overall. The worrisome signs in the local labor market that were mentioned in this report last December have manifested themselves. Across a number of measures, the labor market in Laramie County weakened in the first quarter of There was a decline in the number of jobs and an increase in the number of unemployed workers, the unemployment rate, and the number of initial unemployment claims. Despite this negative news, it s important to note that Laramie County s unemployment rate remained below both the national and the state unemployment rates through the first quarter of 2016 and is still at or below what economists call full employment. The general level of economic activity as measured by retail sales showed a decline. Estimated retail sales were down 1.8 percent from a year ago and down 9.4 percent from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of The housing market faltered as well. The number of residential building permits declined in the first quarter of 2016, and over the last year, both in Cheyenne and outside the city. The number of newly constructed homes sold declined, as did their average sales price. While the sales of existing homes decreased, the average sales price did rise over the last year. The obvious threat to the local economy is the impact of sustained low energy prices and the impact this is currently having on the state economy. The first round of state budget cuts was passed by the Legislature during the budget session this winter. The Governor then asked state agencies for additional budget cuts after the updated Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG) revenue forecast in April. The impact of these cuts will be felt over the biennium which begins July 1. This report contains detailed information and analysis on a wide range of economic indicators for the Greater Cheyenne area. Please feel free to contact the WCBEA@LCCC with any questions. 2

6 Labor Market In the December issue of this report, employment growth in Laramie County was characterized as flat. The labor market situation in Laramie County weakened in the first quarter of From the first quarter of to the first quarter of 2016, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) data showed a decrease of 1,062 jobs (-2.3 percent) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) data showed a decrease of 67 jobs (-0.1 percent). Much of this year over year decrease occurred from fourth quarter to first quarter LAUS data showed a decrease of 1,004 jobs (-2.1 percent) and CES data showed a decrease of 967 jobs (-2.0 percent) in this time period. Approximately 30 percent of the jobs were lost in the retail sector and another 30 percent in the mining sector. The balance of the job losses were evenly divided between the leisure, manufacturing, transportation/utilities, and professional services sectors. The number of unemployed workers fell over the last year, from first quarter to first quarter 2016 (-1.8 percent), but jumped noticeably from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of The number of unemployed workers rose from 1,856 in the fourth quarter of to 2,249 in the first quarter of this year (21.2 percent). The unemployment rate for Laramie County was the same in the first quarter of 2016 as it was a year ago in the first quarter of 4.6 percent. However, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of to 4.6 percent in the first quarter of This movement is consistent with the state of Wyoming s rising unemployment rate, though Laramie County s unemployment rate remains below Wyoming s. Initial unemployment claims fell from 105 in the fourth quarter of to 95 in the first quarter of 2016, but were up significantly in the last year. Claims rose from 73 in the first quarter of to 95 in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 30.1 percent. Additional evidence of a weakening in the local labor market included a decrease in help wanted ads, from 614 in the first quarter of to 554 in the first quarter of 2016 (-9.7 percent). Taken all together, this labor market news is disappointing, though not unexpected, given the current economic downturn in the state of Wyoming. See Table 1 below for additional details. 3

7 Figure 1. Laramie County Employment, , Monthly Averages In Thousands Source: WCBEA from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Figure 2. Laramie County Unemployment, , Monthly Averages 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,466 1,414 1,505 1,656 1,738 1,917 1,883 1,762 1,628 1,502 1,700 2,836 3,354 2,946 2,763 2,337 2,193 1,881 2, Source: WCBEA from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS). 4

8 Figure 3. Laramie County Initial Unemployment Claims, , Monthly Averages Source: WCBEA from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Figure 4. Help Wanted Ads, Cheyenne , Monthly Totals F Source: WCBEA from Wyoming Department of Workforce Services 5

9 Table 1. Laramie County Labor Market Avg Monthly Civilian Labor Force (LAUS) 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 / ,759 49,484 48,994 48, Avg Monthly Employment (LAUS) 46,260 47,195 47,137 46, Avg Monthly Employment (CES) 45,667 46,467 47,367 46, Avg Monthly Unemployment (LAUS) Avg Monthly Unemployment Rate (LAUS) Avg Monthly Initial Unemployment Claims (LAUS) 2,499 2,290 1,856 2, Avg Monthly Help Wanted Ads Source: Labor Market statistics are compiled from two major sources: Current Population Survey (CPS) and Current Employment Statistics (CES). Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) are estimated based on CPS data which is collected through household surveys in which individuals are reported as employed, unemployed or not in the labor force. This data includes employment for both agriculture and nonagricultural industries. CES data is based on establishment (employer) records compiled through monthly surveys of nonfarm employers. Individuals who worked in more than one establishment, full or part-time, are counted each time their names appear on payrolls. Data for help wanted ads come from Wyoming Department of Workforce Services. 6

10 General Business Activity Table 2 provides some basic indicators of the level of economic activity in Laramie County. Estimated retail sales for first quarter 2016 were $298,597,000. This was a decrease of 1.8 percent from one year ago and a decrease of 9.4 percent from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of Retail sales in most of the fourteen sub-sectors declined from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of Four subsectors are consistently the top contributors to total retail sales in Laramie County. These are: Automobile Sales, Building Material and Garden, General Merchandise Stores, and Eating and Drinking Places. All four of these subsectors had declining sales over the last quarter. Automobiles Sales declined 20.5 percent, Building Material and Garden sales declined 35.4 percent, General Merchandise stores declined 4.1 percent and Eating and Drinking Places declined 4.7 percent. While some of this decline was seasonal, much of it was attributable to the weakening local economy. Enplanements defined as commercial passenger boardings rose from a monthly average of 130 in the fourth quarter of to 165 in the first quarter of 2016 (26.6 percent). This increase was due to the introduction of new charter airline with service from Cheyenne to Wendover, Nevada. Enplanements were down 36.9 percent over the last year, from the first quarter of to the first quarter of Efforts to find additional airline carriers to serve the area are ongoing but regulatory issues continued to complicate that effort. Auto registrations were up 2.1 percent from one year ago, and rose from a monthly average of 2,811 in the fourth quarter of to 2,846 in the first quarter of Bankruptcies fell from a monthly average of 12 in the fourth quarter of to 9 in the first quarter of 2016, and were down 26.3 percent from one year ago. While oil production in Laramie County rose during, it declined in the first quarter of Average monthly oil production declined 15.8 percent from the fourth quarter to first quarter 2016 and it was down almost 15 percent from the first quarter of to the first quarter of This decrease in production was consistent with the fall in oil prices. 7

11 Figure 5. Laramie County Retail Sales, , Monthly Totals 250 Millions Source: WCBEA from Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity, by Tax Type and Total Distribution by Minor Class and by County. Notes: Retail sales are estimated by WCBEA from Laramie County specific purpose sales and use tax collections. The significant increase in retail sales in October 2013, followed by a significant decline in November 2013 was due to large retail tax collections on purchases of peripheral computer equipment and software by data centers under construction in the county that were later deemed tax exempt and refunded. 8

12 Figure 6. Enplanements, Cheyenne Airport, , Monthly Totals Source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Regional Airport Figure 7. Laramie County Bankruptcies, , Monthly Averages Source: WCBEA from U.S. Clerk of Bankruptcy Court

13 Table 2. General Business Activity in Laramie County 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Total Retail Sales ($000) 286, , , , Avg Monthly Enplanements - Cheyenne Regional Airport Avg Monthly Auto Registrations New & Used ,627 2,787 2,811 2, Avg Monthly Bankruptcies Avg Monthly Oil Production (Barrels) Avg Monthly Oil Prices, Per Barrel ($) 167, , , , Sources: Retail sales from WCBEA analysis of Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity, by Tax Type and Total Distribution by Minor Class and by County. Other data sources include: WCBEA from Cheyenne Regional Airport, Laramie County Clerk, U.S. Clerk of Bankruptcy Court, Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission and Cushing, OK, West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price. 10

14 Government Finances Table 3 provides information on tax collections and receipts. Total tax collections and tax receipts to local government entities were down down from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of 2016, down year-over-year, and down over the two year period from first quarter to first quarter Both sales tax collections and tax receipts to local government entities declined over the last year. Tax collections declined by 18.8 percent and tax receipts declined 13.4 percent from the first quarter of to the first quarter of The quarter to quarter decrease was also striking. Tax collections declined by 12.7 percent from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of 2016, while tax receipts to local government entities declined by 12.6 percent during this same time period. Lodging tax receipts declined by 45.0 percent from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of 2016 by 45.0 percent. These tax receipts declined by 40.2 percent annually, from the first quarter of to the first quarter of The timing of these decreases coincided with the decline in oil and gas activity within Laramie County. Table 3. Laramie County Government Revenues 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 4%, 1%, & Lodging Tax Collections ($000) 25,905 30,343 28,219 24, Actual Receipts to County Entities ($000) 1 11,134 12,244 12,128 10, % Sales & Use Tax Receipts ($000) 5,093 5,597 5,525 4, Lodging Tax Receipts 267, , , , % Special Purpose Tax Receipts ($000) Retail Sales - Eating and Drinking Places ($000) 5,086 5,592 5,518 4, ,240 44,101 46,541 44, Source: WCBEA analysis of Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity, by Tax Type and Total Distribution by Minor Class and by County. Notes: 1 Includes the 4% Sales and Use Tax, the 1% Sales and Use Tax, the Out of State Use Tax, and the Out of State Sales Tax. The percentage of sales & use tax collections distributed to counties is 31%. Data reported represent quarterly totals. 11

15 Figure 8. Laramie County 1% Optional Sales and Use Tax Receipts, , Monthly Averages $1,900,000 $1,700,000 $1,500,000 $1,300,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $829,441 $922,207 $976,514 $1,050,464 $1,131,895 $1,139,444 $1,171,467 Source: WCBEA from Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity. Figure 9. Laramie County Lodging Tax Receipts, , Monthly Totals $300 $280 $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 -$20 -$40 -$60 Thousands Source: WCBEA from Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity. Notes: 2% lodging tax effective 7/1/87 through 3/31/03 3% lodging tax effective 4/1/03 through 3/31/07 4% lodging tax effective 4/1/07 $1,210,034 $1,268,692 $1,255,550 $1,273,843 $1,210,767 $1,232,911 $1,445,489 $1,489,900 $1,590,262 $1,920,851 $1,841, $1,608,157 12

16 Financial Sector Table 4 provides information on credit unions and commercial banks in Laramie County. Credit union data showed growth over the last year. Deposits were up 7.0 percent, total loans were up 12.3 percent, and net income was up percent. Delinquencies were down 3.9 percent from one year ago. Data on total deposits in all FDIC-insured institutions (commercial banks) in Laramie County are available only on an annual basis. Total deposits in commercial banks were up 12.9 percent from 2013 to, and up 8.8 percent from to. FY 2016 data will be available for the September 2016 Economic Indicators report. Table 4A shows commercial banks, their total deposits, and their market share. This table is updated annually. New data will be available in the September issue of Economic Indicators. The largest bank in Laramie County is Wells Fargo Bank with $347,458,000 in deposits and a 22.5 percent market share. The five largest banks together have a 66.6 percent share of the market. That is, these five largest banks taken together hold two-thirds of all deposits in Laramie County. Figure 10. Total Loans and Deposits, Cheyenne Area Credit Unions, Millions Total Loans Total Deposits Source: WCBEA from National Credit Union Administration data. Notes: As of January 1, 2000, one Credit Union discontinued reporting statistics. Beginning in 2003, the data reflect two additional credit unions. 13

17 Figure 11. Delinquencies, Cheyenne Area Credit Unions, Millions Source: WCBEA from National Credit Union Administration data. Notes: As of January 1, 2000, one Credit Union discontinued reporting statistics. Beginning in 2003, the data reflect two additional credit unions Figure 12. Total Deposits, Laramie County Banks, Thousands Source: WCBEA from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Survey of Deposits (SOD). Data are available on an annual basis and represent deposits on June 30 of each year

18 Table 4. Laramie County Credit Unions Credit Union Data 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Deposits ($000) 1,096,216 1,168,287 1,232,069 1,250, Loans ($000) 866, ,837 1,072,323 1,091, Net Income YTD ($) 2 2,682,811 2,566,896 12,242,059 5,144, N/A Delinquencies ($) 6,854,774 6,492,935 8,456,740 6,242, Memberships 110, , , , Banking Data FY 2012 FY 2013 FY FY 3 Year % Chg 2 Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg FY FY FY FY FY - FY Deposits ($000) 1 1,350,098 1,366,555 1,418,528 1,543, Sources: WCBEA from National Credit Union Administration data and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Note: 1 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Survey of Deposits (SOD). Data are available on an annual basis and represent deposits on June 30 of each year. 2 The significant increase in net income is attributed to BLUE Federal Credit Union. In late, Warren Federal Credit Union merged with Community Financial Credit Union and became BLUE Federal Credit Union. BLUE Federal Credit Union accounted for 72 percent of total net income for all credit unions in Laramie County. 15

19 Table 4A. Banking Deposit Market Share, Laramie County Institutions, State No. of Branches Inside of Laramie Deposits in Laramie County Institution Market Institution Name (Hqtrd) County (000s) Share Share Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD 2 347, % 22.5% ANB Bank CO 2 254, % 39.0% First Interstate Bank MT 2 167, % 49.9% Wyoming Bank & Trust WY 2 137, % 58.8% Bank of the West CA 3 120, % 66.6% Wyoming State Bank WY 2 103, % 73.3% U.S. Bank National Association OH 2 89, % 79.1% Jonah Bank of Wyoming WY 1 83, % 84.5% Security First Bank WY 2 51, % 87.8% Platte Valley Bank WY 2 41, % 90.5% Cheyenne State Bank WY 1 39, % 93.0% Pinnacle Bank - Wyoming WY 2 33, % 95.2% Points West Community Bank NE 1 24, % 96.8% Farmers State Bank WY 1 19, % 98.1% Oregon Trail Bank WY 1 10, % 98.7% FirsTier Bank NE 1 10, % 99.4% Central Bank and Trust WY 1 8, % 100.0% Armed Forces Bank, National Associatio KS % 100.0% All Institutions 1,543, % Source: WCBEA from FDIC Deposit Market Share Report. data represent 18 institutions and 29 branch banks. Note: Banking data reflect deposits as of June 30,. Cumulative Market 16

20 Residential Construction Tables 5 and 5A show data for new residential and commercial construction in Laramie County and the City of Cheyenne. The number of residential building permits issued declined in the first quarter of In the City of Cheyenne, there was a decrease from 49 single family building permits in the fourth quarter of to 32 in the first quarter of 2016 (-34.7 percent). Outside Cheyenne, there was a decrease from 37 building permits in the fourth quarter of to 30 in the first quarter of 2016 (-18.9 percent). The number of building permits was also down over the last year total single family building permits in the City of Cheyenne declined by 30.4 percent from the first quarter of to the first quarter of The Core Logic data (Table 7 on page 29) showed that 48 newly constructed homes were sold in the first quarter of This was a 30.4 percent decrease from the fourth quarter of and a 12.7 percent annual decrease. The average new construction sales price decreased 3.6 percent compared to one year ago, from $315,317 in the fourth quarter of to $298,766 in the fourth quarter of The average sales price of an existing home increased from $224,489 to $251,626 (12.1 percent) during this same time period. The Utilities section of Table 5 presents data on utility usage for Greater Cheyenne. Average monthly commercial and industrial power usage increased 0.2 percent from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of 2016, and increased 9.4 percent from one year ago. This annual increase is due to the continued ramp up of the newer data centers. The rate of growth in average monthly metered water taps was again well below 1.0 percent for both the Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities and the South Cheyenne Water & Sewer District from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of These water taps are a good indicator of new household formation since most new taps are residential and this low increase is consistent with the very low population growth. 17

21 Table 5. Laramie County Construction Construction 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Total Single Family Bldg Permits - City Total Single Family Bldg Permits - Rural Avg Monthly Building permits (All Construction) - City Avg Monthly Septic Permits - Rural Avg Monthly Value of Authorized Construction - City ($000) Avg Monthly Value New Residential Construction - City ($000) Utilities Avg Monthly Commercial & Industrial Power Usage ('000,000) Kwh 7,680 6,891 6,650 5, ,731 2,777 3,929 2, Avg Monthly Residential Gas Usage ('000) Mcf Avg Monthly Metered Water Taps (CBPU) 22,999 23,159 23,440 23, Avg Monthly Metered Water Taps (SCWSD) 3,323 3,329 3,338 3, Sources: City of Cheyenne Building Safety Department Laramie County Planning & Development Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities (CBPU) Black Hills Energy Corporation South Cheyenne Water & Sewer District (SCW&SD) Note: 1 Data include building and non-building permits. 18

22 Table 5A. Laramie County New Residential Construction, Number of Permitted Units 2012 Units Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Units Single Family Manufactured Duplex Tri & Four Plex Multi-family Total Units Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Units Single Family Manufactured Duplex Tri & Four Plex Multi-family Total Units Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Units Single Family Manufactured Duplex Tri & Four Plex Multi-family Total Units Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Units Single Family Manufactured Duplex Tri & Four Plex Multi-family Total Units Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Units Single Family Manufactured Duplex Tri & Four Plex Multi-family Total Source: WCBEA from Laramie County Planning & Development. 19

23 Figure 13. City of Cheyenne Single-Family Building Permits, , Monthly Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: WCBEA from City of Cheyenne Building Safety Department Figure 14. City of Cheyenne Commercial Electric Power Sales, , Monthly Totals 60 Millions Source: WCBEA from Black Hills Power Corporation. 20

24 Figure 15. City of Cheyenne Metered Water Taps, , Monthly Average 23,500 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 18,890 19,100 19,193 19,355 19,532 19, ,246 Source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities. 20,721 21,225 Figure 16. South Cheyenne Metered Water Taps, , Monthly Average 21,600 21,678 21,929 22,048 22,338 22, ,863 23,104 23, ,451 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 3,045 3,067 3,094 3,112 3,131 3,156 3, ,210 Source: WCBEA from South Cheyenne Water & Sewer District. 3,250 3,284 3,293 3,300 3, ,306 3,310 3,317 3,325 3,335 3,338 21

25 Figure 17. City of Cheyenne Total Building Permits, , Monthly Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: WCBEA from City of Cheyenne Building Safety Department. Note: Data include building and non-building permits

26 Commercial Property Vacancies Data on commercial property vacancies for the first quarter of 2016 are found in Table 6. By the end of first quarter of 2016, there were 117 active properties on the local commercial real estate market which was a decrease of 7.9 percent (-10 properties) from the fourth quarter. Year-overyear saw a larger decline of 17.0 percent or a decrease of 24 properties. Over the current quarter, the number of available warehousing units rose 17.4 percent, but the overall vacancy rate dropped from 9.0 percent to 8.6 percent by the end of the first quarter. The average lease rate also fell to $7.62/sf as compared to $9.06/sf at the end of the fourth quarter, a sharp decline of 15.9 percent. Total vacant square footage ended the quarter at 442,238 sf as compared to 446,356 sf at the end of. The number of available retail properties decreased by five units from one quarter ago while the overall vacancy rate dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.5 percent by the end of the current quarter. The amount of vacant retail space ended the quarter at 277,288 sf as compared to 297,407 sf at the end of fourth quarter. The former Sutherland s home and garden supply building (76,749 sf) which came on the market at the end of last year added significantly to the amount of available retail space. The amount of available retail space will be further impacted with the just announced closing of the Cole Safeway store (44,358 sf). This latter property is not included in this quarter s results. The number of available office properties decreased by 20 percent by the end of first quarter 2016, a decline of 9 units. Further, the amount of total square footage fell by 42,766 sf and the vacancy rate for this property type dropped to 12.7 percent by the quarter s end. From one year ago, this was a decrease of 13.6 percent and from fourth quarter, it was a decline of 14.2 percent. Total vacant office space by the quarter s end stood at 261,183 sf whereas fourth quarter s total was 303,949 sf by comparison. Further, by the end of first quarter 2016, there were four pending contracts at play which if closed will have the potential to reduce vacant office space by 66,400 sf. NOTE: For a complete listing of available commercial properties in the Greater Cheyenne area and discussion of changes in the commercial building market over the first quarter of 2016, please see the Wyoming Center for Economic LCCC s homepage ( and click on Commercial Property Opportunities. 23

27 Table 6. Commercial Property for Sale and Lease, Cheyenne, 1,500 sq. ft. and up, Property # Square Avg. Min./Max. Type Properties Footage Lease Rate Rate Second Quarter 2013 Warehouse ,655 $ % FR Retail ,118 $ % FR Office Space ,898 $ % FR Third Quarter 2013 Warehouse ,444 $ % FR Retail ,146 $ % FR Office Space ,838 $ % FR Fourth Quarter 2013 Warehouse ,724 $ % FR Retail ,984 $ % FR Office Space ,964 $ % FR First Quarter Warehouse ,203 $ % Retail ,281 $ % Office Space ,456 $ % Second Quarter Warehouse ,235 $ % Retail ,561 $ % Office Space ,057 $ % Third Quarter Warehouse ,778 $ % Retail ,471 $ % Office Space ,816 $ % Fourth Quarter Warehouse ,928 $ % Retail ,530 $ % Office Space ,602 $ % First Quarter Warehouse ,283 $ % Retail ,238 $ % Office Space ,436 $ % Second Quarter Warehouse ,720 $ % Retail ,238 $ % Office Space ,708 $ % Third Quarter Warehouse ,488 $ % Retail ,383 $ % Office Space ,517 $ % Fourth Quarter Warehouse ,356 $ % Retail ,084 $ % Office Space ,949 $ % First Quarter 2016 Warehouse ,238 $ % Retail ,764 $ % Office Space ,183 $ % Source: WCBEA from Laramie County Assessor property database. Note: FR=final revision. Vacancy Rate 24

28 Residential Housing Market Table 7 provides data on the local residential housing market, both city and rural areas. The first part of the table presents 14 different data series measuring residential housing activity throughout Laramie County. These statistics are from Core Logic and provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the residential housing market. Below the Core Logic data are statistics from the Cheyenne Board of Realtors (CBR). Both data sets are included because together they give a more complete picture of the local housing market. Core Logic data is drawn from a considerably larger sample than CBR statistics and should provide a higher degree of accuracy. The average number of monthly home sales for new and existing homes declined again this quarter, from 210 in the fourth quarter of to 165 in the first quarter of 2016, a decrease of 21.3 percent. Monthly home sales also decreased from a year ago, from a monthly average of 189 sales in the first quarter of to a monthly average of 165 sales in the first quarter of 2016 (-12.7 percent). The average sales price -- for new and existing homes increased from $230,899 in the fourth quarter of to $249,251 in the first quarter of 2016 (7.9 percent). As reported in the Residential Construction section, the average number of new home sales decreased from 69 in the fourth quarter of to 48 in the first quarter of 2016 (-30.4 percent). The average sales price of a new home decreased from $315,317 to $298,766 (-5.2 percent) over the last quarter. The average sales price decreased by 3.6 percent over the last year. The average number of monthly sales of existing homes decreased from 500 in the fourth quarter of to 409 in the first quarter of 2016 (-18.2 percent). The average selling price of existing homes increased 12.1 percent over the last year, from $224,489 in the first quarter of to $251,626 in the first quarter of Total foreclosure initiations declined again this quarter, from 55 in the fourth quarter of to 15 in the first quarter of The foreclosure rate defined as the percentage of first lien mortgages that are in some stage of the foreclosure process -- remained the same this quarter, at 0.9 percent. In positive news, both the number of negative equity loans (-7.4 percent) and the number of 90+ days delinquent loans (-8.1 percent) declined from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of The Cheyenne Board of Realtors reported a 23.8 percent decrease in the supply of homes for sale in the City of Cheyenne and an 11.5 percent decrease in the supply of homes for sale in the rural part of Laramie County from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of The supply of homes for sale in Cheyenne is also down over the last year, a decrease of 5.9 percent from the first quarter of to the first quarter of According to data from the Cheyenne Board of Realtors, from 2010 to, there has been a continual decrease in the annual average monthly number of housing units available for sale in the City of Cheyenne and Laramie County from 745 to 399 (-46.4 percent). Over that same time period, data from Core Logic indicate that there has been an increase in total sales each year, (with the exception of ), from 2,040 in 2010 to 2,767 in (35.6 percent). 25

29 Given this sustained decrease in supply, (homes available for sale), and increase in demand we would expect to see both a sharp increase in home prices and increased housing development activity. While prices have increased from an average sales price of $200,314 in 2010 to an average sales price of $231,178 in, this amounts to an average increase of 3.1 percent per year, hardly a notable increase. The number of building permits issued during this time period fluctuated. It was as high as 550 in 2010, and then dropped to a low of 277 in 2011, and, then rose again in to 370. Are there significant housing developments currently in the pipeline? We are working with the city and county planning departments to try to get data on housing development activity projects expected to come online in the near future. 26

30 Figure 18. Laramie County Residential Units Sold, , Monthly Totals Condo Units Sold Rural Units Sold City Units Sold Total Units Sold Source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Board of Realtors. Figure 19. Laramie County Average City and Rural Residential Sale Prices, ,000 Sales Price 375, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 75,000 Source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Board of Realtors Avg. City Price Avg. Rural Price

31 Apartment Vacancies The vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2016 was unchanged, at 3.0 percent, from the fourth quarter of to the first quarter of One year ago, in the first quarter of, the vacancy rate was 7.5 percent, but this high vacancy rate was due to the addition of 100 new rental units. Low vacancy rates are much more typical of the rental housing market in the Greater Cheyenne area. Table 7 below presents the above data. Figure 20. City of Cheyenne Unfurnished Apartment Vacancies, , Monthly Totals Source: WCBEA from Wyoming Eagle Tribune

32 Figure 21. City of Cheyenne Sampled Apartments Vacancy Rate, , Monthly Source: WCBEA large apartment complex sample

33 Table 7. Laramie County Residential Housing Market Core Logic Total Sales 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Total Sales Avg Monthly Sales Avg Sales Price 209, , , , New Construction Total Sales Avg % of Total Sales 10.6% 9.4% 11.0% 9.9% Avg Sales Price 272, , , , Resales Total Sales Avg Sales Price 208, , , , Foreclosures Total Foreclosure Initiations Avg Monthly Foreclosure Rate 2 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Additional Data Total Short Sales Avg Short Sales Price 148, , , , Avg Monthly Negative Equity Loans Avg Monthly 90+ Day Delinquency Cheyenne Board of Realtors Avg Monthly Residentials Sold City Avg Monthly Units For Sale Avg Sale Price ($) 189, , , , Avg Days on Market Rural Avg Monthly Units For Sale Avg Sale Price ($) 265, , , , Vacancies 6 Avg Monthly Furnished Apartments Avg Monthly Unfurnished Apartments Avg Monthly Homes and Duplexes Avg Monthly Mobile Homes Sampled Apartments Vacancy Rate 7 1.3% 7.5% 3.0% 3.0% Avg Monthly Sample Sizes Sources: WCBEA from Core Logic and Cheyenne Board of Realtors. Notes: Unless otherwise noted, data represent quarterly averages. 1 The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice. 2 The percentage of first lien mortgages that are in some stage of the foreclosure process. 3 The number of mortgages that are in negative equity, calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the mortgage debt on the property. 4 The number of mortgages delinquent by 90 days or more, including loans that are real-estate owned (in the possession of a lender as a result of foreclosure) or in foreclosure. 5 Average days on market calculated as number of days from the listing date to the date the property is under contract. 6 Vacancy data are obtained from the Wyoming Tribune Eagle. 7 Vacancy rate is calculated from WCBEA large apartment complex sample. 30

34 Demographics and Tourism The tables below provide data on current demographic and tourism trends within Laramie County. Table 8 presents information on human and social services and school enrollments in Laramie County and Table 9 presents tourism indicators. There has been a consistent decline over the last two years in the Department of Family Services (DFS) Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) distributions, but from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2016 the number of distributions increased by 3.9 percent. While some of this increase may reflect the current economic downturn, recent legislative changes to the POWER program made some persons eligible for assistance that previously would not have been. With the exception of trolley ridership, all of the tourism numbers were down over the last year. From the first quarter of to the first quarter of 2016, the Visit Cheyenne Center, the Pine Bluffs Information Center and the I-25 Visitor Center had declining numbers of users. The Old West Museum Paid Visitor count declined from 839 in the first quarter of to 364 in the first quarter of While some of this decrease was attributable to a decline in the level of oil and gas activity in Laramie County, the first quarter of 2016 was particularly cold, blustery, and snowy and this weather undoubtedly had an impact on the number of visitors. Table 8. Laramie County Demographics Human Services 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Emergency Room Visits 3,291 3,460 3,330 3, Safehouse - # Sheltered Comea Shelter - Nights lodging 1,646 2,034 2,196 2, DFS/TANF Distributions School Enrollments Laramie County School District #1 13,312 13,451 13,816 13, Laramie County School District # Private Schools Home Schooling Total School Enrollment 15,007 15,229 15,520 15, LCCC Enrollment - FTE (Laramie County Sites) 2,887 2,722 2,687 N/A LCCC Enrollment - Headcount (Laramie County) 5,029 4,748 4,367 N/A Note: All data represent monthly averages for the quarter. Sources: WCBEA from Cheyenne Regional Medical Center, Safehouse Services, Comea Shelter, Wyoming Department of Family Services, Laramie County School District #1, Laramie County School District #2, and Laramie County Community College 31

35 Table 9. Laramie County Tourism Data 4Q Year % Chg 1 Year % Chg Qtrly % Chg / - / - 4Q/ - /2016 /2016 /2016 Avg Monthly Accomodations Data Available Rooms 71,040 75,060 76,728 75, Nights Occupied 37,936 38,915 37,329 32, Occupancy Rate (%) Average Room Rate $76.70 $82.02 $83.59 $ Avg Monthly Visitor Data Visit Cheyenne Walk-in Count 2,415 2,248 2,354 1, Trolley Ridership , Pine Bluffs Info Center 5,340 5,976 6,881 5, I-25 State Visitor Center 5,134 5,450 6,809 4, Old West Museum Paid Visitor Source: WCBEA from Visit Cheyenne. Figure 22. Emergency Room Visits, CRMC, , Monthly Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Regional Medical Center. 32

36 Figure 23. Laramie County School Enrollment, , Monthly Totals Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sources: WCBEA from Laramie County School District #1, Laramie County School District #2 and Cheyenne area private schools (5). 33

37 Detailed Tables Table 10. Employment, Labor Force and General Business Activity Employment Total Civilian Labor Force (LAUS) Total Employment (LAUS) Total Employment (CES) Total Unemployment (LAUS) Unemployment Rate (LAUS) Initial Unemployment Claims Help Wanted Ads General Business Activity Auto Registrations Enplanements - CYS Retail Sales ($) Bankruptcies Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Year 49,090 49,482 49,881 49,355 49,136 49,326 49,743 49,179 48,277 48,798 49,306 48,877 49,204 48,350 48,292 48, ,656 47,285 47,643 47,588 47,501 47,514 48,071 47,541 46,670 47,066 47,455 46,891 47,323 45,925 46,102 46, ,200 46,500 46,700 46,700 47,300 47,300 47,800 47,600 47,200 47,600 47,400 47,100 47,117 46,200 46,200 46, ,434 2,197 2,238 1,767 1,635 1,812 1,672 1,638 1,607 1,732 1,851 1,986 1,881 2,425 2,190 2, , ,542 2,579 3,241 3,199 3,294 3,552 3,576 3,624 3,176 3,475 2,565 2,392 3,101 2,332 2,817 3, ,604,800 96,530,900 93,044, ,382, ,283, ,513, ,157, ,162, ,802, ,250, ,469, ,836, ,336, ,048,500 89,045, ,503, Employment data sources: Please see Table 1 footnote for detailed description of the employment data sources. General Business Activity data sources: WCBEA from Laramie County Clerk, Cheyenne Regional Airport, and U.S. Clerk of Bankruptcy Court. Retail sales from WCBEA analysis of Wyoming Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Report of Distribution Amounts by Entity. 34

38 Table 11. Housing and Construction Housing Real Estate Data Total Residential Units for Sale Total Residential Units Sold Average Residential Sold Price (City) Rental Data Furnished Apartments Unfurnished Apartments Homes & Duplexes Mobile Homes Sampled Apartments % Vacant Construction City Single Family Permits Total Building Permits Value of Authorized Construction Residential Permit Value Rural Single Family Permits Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Year $194,009 $207,962 $217,550 $226,569 $216,724 $237,098 $217,546 $212,226 $207,578 $216,286 $201,169 $206,720 $213,453 $214,584 $188,463 $218, % 7.0% 5.1% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% $4,974,427 $4,088,539 $11,610,971 $10,561,825 $12,047,161 $24,034,547 $46,239,186 $26,148,828 $5,763,957 $5,098,027 $5,772,348 $9,078,798 $13,784,885 $7,012,893 $3,850,687 $4,244, $822,204 $1,559,715 $5,948,667 $4,811,514 $3,483,117 $3,957,071 $7,746,574 $3,099,160 $2,038,743 $2,943,573 $3,610,721 $5,232,173 $3,771,103 $2,977,153 $1,605,848 $2,098, Septic Permits Real Estate data source: WCBEA from Cheyenne Board of Realtors. Rental data sources: WCBEA from Wyoming Tribune Eagle and WCBEA large apartment complex sample. Construction data sources: WCBEA from City of Cheyenne Building Safety Department and Laramie County Planning & Development. Construction notes: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Single family permits include attached and detached homes. 35

39 Table 12. Utilities, Human Services and School Enrollments Utilities Commercial & Industrial Power (Kwh) (0,000) Residential Gas Usage (Mcf) ('000) Metered Water Taps (CBPU) Metered Water Taps (SCW&SD) Human Services Total Emergency Room Visits Safehouse - Number of People Sheltered Comea Shelter - Total Nights Lodging School Enrollments Laramie County District #1 Laramie County District #2 Total School Enrollment LCCC Enrollment - FTE (Laramie County Sites) LCCC Enrollment - Headcount (Laramie County Sites) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Year 8,208 7,735 8,528 7,814 8,085 8,210 8,626 8,993 8,991 8,771 8,693 9,244 8,492 8,938 8,987 8, ,141 23,133 23,203 23,232 23,284 23,359 23,421 23,469 23,467 23,473 23,398 23,450 23,336 23,386 23,479 23, ,328 3,329 3,331 3,331 3,335 3,338 3,338 3,338 3,338 3,338 3,338 3,338 3,335 3,338 3,338 3, ,543 3,175 3,662 3,352 3,506 3,423 3,569 3,439 3,297 3,303 3,256 3,430 3,413 3,330 3,331 3, ,116 1,844 2,143 2,085 2,205 2,064 2,045 1,998 2,022 2,177 2,149 2,261 2,092 2,288 2,041 2, ,418 13,480 13,454 13,407 13, ,577 13,817 13,830 13,822 13,797 13,600 13,689 13,641 13, , ,198 15,258 15,232 15,191 15, ,269 15,515 15,540 15,523 15,498 15,340 15,400 15,357 15, , , , , , N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2, not yet not yet not yet ,748 4,748 4,748 4,748 4,748 1,535 1,535 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3,830 not yet not yet not yet 2016 Utilities data sources: WCBEA from Black Hills Energy Corporation, Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities (CBPU) and South Cheyenne Water & Sewer District (SCW&SD). Human Services data sources: WCBEA from Cheyenne Regional Medical Center, Safehouse Services and Comea Shelter. School Enrollments data sources: WCBEA from Laramie County School District #1, Laramie County School District #2, and Laramie County Community College. Notes: Data are not seasonally adjusted. N/A Not available 36