Minister of Finance. Brazilian economic. challenges ahead. Guido Mantega
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1 Brazilian economic performance and challenges ahead Guido Mantega Minister October, 2010
2 2 Brazilian GDP growth: from the bottom to the top In % YoY * The Economist forecasts (September 29 th, 2010) ** Ministry forecasts Source: The Economist Produced by: Ministry
3 3 GDPgrowth: Brazilamongtheaverageamong average countries In % on a yearly basis in relation to the previous year 2002 Source: The Economist Produced by: Ministry
4 4 GDP growth: Brazil among the leading countries In % on a quarterly basis in relation to the previous year 2Q 2010 Source: The Economist Produced by: Ministry
5 5 GDP composition from the demand perspective In % YoY * Ministry forecast Source: SPE/Ministry Produced by: Ministry
6 6 Brazil has reached a sustainable growth path In % YoY * Ministry forecasts Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry
7 7 A positive response to adverse conditions Which economy is more resilient to recession among developed countries? Policy flexibility index considers the countries within 5 categories: import/international reserves ratio (30%); fiscal result (20%); debt/gdp ratio, nominal interest rates (10%) and differential between expectations and inflation target (20%). Source: HSBC Produced by: Ministry
8 8 Emerging markets growth related to the USAGDP performance Related to the 1% change of USA GDP * Middle East includes North of Africa Source: HSBC Produced by: Ministry
9 Real investment* In % YoY (GDP deflator) Ministry 9 * Investments refer to the Gross Fixed Capital Formation ** Ministry forecast Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry
10 10 Infrastructure investments Global investments shall increase more than 20% in 2010 In R$ billion, 2009 prices 2003 to 2009 Source: ABDIB Produced by: Ministry
11 11 Top priority host economies for FDI for the next 3 years In number of times a country has been mentioned as top priority for Foreign Direct Investment by respondent transnational corporations * 2009 rank in brackets Source: UNCTAD World Investment Prospects Survey Produced by: Ministry
12 12 Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets in 2010 and GDP Growth Gap In $ billion, IIF estimates as of dates below, and percentage points Source: Institute of International Finance Produced by Ministry
13 Informal economy In % of GDP and R$ billion, 2009 prices Ministry 13 Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation Produced by: Ministry
14 Robust growth and formal employment generation In thousands of jobs 14 * Results as of 2010 refer only to CAGED balance accumulated from the preceding year up to August, 2010 ** Ministry forecast Source: Ministry of Labor & Employment Produced by: Ministry
15 15 Evolution of social ileconomic classes In % of population and millions of individuals In 2010, D class individuals are expected to spend R$ billion, which is higher than the total consumption of A class (R$ billion) and B class (R$ billion). Class C will spend R$ 500 billion. Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation, IBGE and LCA Produced by: Ministry
16 16 Socialclasses classes andwage mass In % and R$ Source: DATA POPULAR Produced by: Ministry
17 17 Household debt in mortgage credit and consumption Selected countries In % share of household income Source: OCDE, IBGE and Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry
18 Petrobras market value and BOVESPA index In R$ billion and Bovespa index points Ministry 18 * Market value has been estimated as a product of the number of issued shares (preferred and common ones) and respective share prices at the Oct. 1 st, 2010 closing Source: Bloomberg Produced by: Ministry
19 Top global corporations In US$ billion, market value Ministry 19 * In September 30 th, 2010 Source: Bloomberg Produced by: Ministry
20 Stock market trading BMF & Bovespa In R$ billion Ministry 20 * In September 17 th, 2010 Source: BMF&BOVESPA BVMF Produced by: Ministry
21 FX derivatives Future & Options contracts referenced in respective currencies In index number Ministry 21 Source: BIS Produced by: Ministry
22 Sustainable high quality growth No macroeconomic imbalances Inflation under control Fiscal soundness No gaps
23 23 IPCA inflationindextowardsindex towards target in2010 In % on a monthly basis Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry
24 24 Fiscal soundness towards nominalsurplus Fiscal results primary surplus and nominal deficit/surplus In % of GDP * Ministry forecasts Source: Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry
25 25 A sustainable nominal result compared to G20 economies Nominal deficit In % of GDP * Ministry forecast Source: The Economist Produced by: Ministry
26 26 Sustainable PAC: reduction of public debt Public Sector Net Debt In % of GDP * Ministry forecast Source: Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry
27 27 New Challenges: More investments PAC 2: initial estimated investment In R$ million Source: State Department Produced by: Ministry
28 28 Modernization of the financial system Increase in long term credit volumes, with a larger share from the private sector Dynamic capital market Debentures Financial institution notes/bills Mortgage credit CRI
29 29 Modernization of tax structure and cost reduction Tax reform Payroll charges relief Investment taxation relief Bureaucracy reduction (licenses) Law 8.666/93: procurement
30 30 Balanced external accounts Control of current account dfiit deficit Against fiscal war in imports EXIMBANK Promotion of export competition
31 31 Constraints to overvalued currency Mitigating excessive overvaluation Maintaining FDI attraction Dollar purchases via Brazilian Central Bank and Sovereign Fund IOF Financial transaction tax
32 Overvalued currencies against US dollar In % related to US dollar 2009 and 2010 Ministry 32 * In September 29 th, 2010 Source: Bloomberg Produced by: Ministry
33 33 Foreign reserves In US$ billion * In September, 2010 Source: Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry
34 34 Net foreign debt reduction and international reserves increase In % of GDP * In August, 2010 Source: Brazilian Central Bank Produced by: Ministry
35 35 Brazil gathers the conditions to a long term growth cycle and to become one of the most dynamic world economies
36 Ministry
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