Development and investment prospects for Brazil. Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Washington, October 10 th 2014

Transcription

1 1 Development and investment prospects for Brazil Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Washington, October 10 th 2014

2 2 Guide Growth prospects: sources of dynamism Investment forecast The role of BNDES Brazil: opportunities and challenges

3 Social achievements: a very relevant source of dynamism HOUSING GROWTH Millions units 120 Airline industry, in million passengers Sources: IBGE/ PNAD and ANAC Internet access (household users and household connections), in millions household users household connections

4 Agriculture and oil markets: sources of dynamism in export market 4 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

5 Infrastructure: attractive opportunities & a decisive source of dynamism Expanding Infrastructure Investments - % of GDP The evolution of infrastructure cycles (R$ billion, prices of 2013) Energy Forecast Logistics Sanitation The economic impact - investment forecast (% GDP) End of 1 st Telecom cycle Beginning of Energy cycle Beginning of Logistics cycle Project modelling by BNDES & independent private & multilateral partners Source: BNDES, ABDIB and IBGE. without concessions with concessions Structuring (- 3yrs) Structuring (+ 3yrs) Concluded Projects Suspended Projects Estimated Capex of 30 projects: US$ 25 billion. 74% with 3 or + bidders 5

6 Our drive: dynamism must be translated into welfare (in this slide, obviously through a simple, insufficient summary indicator) 6 GDP per capita, R$ thousand, (2013 prices)

7 7 Guide Growth prospects: sources of dynamism Investment forecast The role of BNDES Brazil: opportunities and challenges

8 Investments: support to & in itself a source of dynamism If BNDES forecasts are on the right direction 8 BNDES investment forecast SECTORS - avg 2013 US$ bi Accumulated % Variation Growth rate (linear avg; % per year) INDUSTRY INFRASTRUCTURE HOUSING AGRICULTURE & SERVICES TOTAL 1, , Source: BNDES Industry & infrastructure: based on evaluation of corporate projects; Housing & agro & services: econometric estimates Previous investment forecasts: less than 10% of error (downwards )

9 Industry: oil& gas will continue to be relevant + manufacturing for local and export markets BNDES industry investment forecast, Average 2013 US$ billion Acc. % change Growth rate (linear avg; % per year) INDUSTRY Oil & Gas Mining Automotive Paper & Pulp Chemical Steel Electronics Health Aircraft Other Industries Source: BNDES 9

10 The time has come for logistics, telecom and urban infrastructure 10 BNDES infrastructure investment forecast, Average 2013 US$ billion Acc.% change Growth rate (linear avg; % per year) INFRASTRUCTURE Electricity Telecommunications Urban Infrastructure Highways Railways Ports Airports Source: BNDES

11 11 Guide Growth prospects: sources of dynamism Investment forecast The role of BNDES Brazil: opportunities and challenges

12 BNDES contribution to investment % 4% 3% BNDES disbursements & Investments as % of GDP Disbursements/GDP (left) GFCF/GDP (right) 20% 19% 18% 2% 17% 1% 16% 0% 15% BNDES disbursements (current US$ billion) *12 months, up to June/2014 *12 months, up to June/ * 12

13 Financial performance: sustainable, profitable growth Shareholder s Equity (BRL bln) Default Rate (%) (1st Sem)

14 14 International strategy: support to Brazilians & its own financing Guidelines Support Brazilian exports Foster internationalisation of Brazilian firms Strengthen BNDES funding Attract institutional investors & FDI Acquire know-how to help develop the Brazilian financial industry Institutional representation BNDES Uruguay Montevideo (2009) Subsidiary BNDES PLC London - UK (2009) International Offices BNDES Africa Johannesburg (2013)

15 15 Guide Growth prospects: sources of dynamism Investment forecast The role of BNDES Brazil: opportunities and challenges

16 16 Efficiency and quality for sustainable growth The XXI century has seen significant progress in Brazil. At this time & age, macroeconomic and development fundamentals are in place to trigger off a process of long term sustainable growth: Macroeconomic performance is, fundamentally, correct. In the domain of macroeconomic policy fine tuning is a constant endeavor, everywhere and, in the case of Brazil, very much within the reach of policy-makers, Brazil has evolved towards diversifying its sources of dynamism: exports, internal market and infrastructure combined provide attractive demand prospects & opportunities that will benefit citizens, firms, investors and financiers. But relevant challenges must still be overcome: Fair opportunities for all and less inequity, Absorption & consolidation of the emerging middle classes, Increases of capabilities and efficiencies of all, More private financing investments.

17 17 Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce Washington, October 10 th 2014