Exchange rate and international trade

Transcription

1 Exchange rate and international trade World Double Asymmetry in RER: the Brazilian case since 2000 Josue Gomes da Silva President of COTEMINAS WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 1 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

2 Brazil and the World 2

3 Brazilian GDP growth Double Asymmetry in RER 3 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

4 GDP growth: international comparison Double Asymmetry in RER 4 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

5 Brazil: International Trade Double Asymmetry in RER 5 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

6 Manufacturing in Brazil 6

7 Manufacturing Output 7

8 Manufacturing Output 8

9 Brazil: International Trade Double Asymmetry in RER 9 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

10 Brazil: International Trade Double Asymmetry in RER 10 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

11 Brazil: International Trade 11

12 Import penetration and Export coefficients in Brazil 12

13 International trade: Trade openness 13

14 Brazilian Bottlenecks 14

15 Brazilian bottlenecks The highest world s interest rate The Brazilian Cost : energy costs, taxes, logistic, bureaucracy. Inter-states tax competition Exchange rate 15

16 Exchange Rate 16

17 The Big Mac Index 17

18 Deviations on Real Exchange Rates " " $ " $ $ $ $ $ $ 18

19 Exchange Rate Misalignment 19

20 Tariff Profile 20

21 Brazil: Tariff Profile 21

22 Brazil: Tariff Profile 22

23 Brazil: Tariff Profile 23

24 Consequences 24

25 Sectoral Analysis: case studies 25

26 Machinery and Equipments 26

27 Machinery and Equipments 27

28 Machinery and Equipments Import penetration in apparent consumption Machinery and equipments, Main indicators: accumulated variation Machinery and equipments, GDP 28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production 30,2 Apparent Consumption Exports -20,9 Imports 167,0 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011). 28

29 Electronic machinery and equipments 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0 10,2 0,3 0,1 7,1 5,9-0,4 14,8 8,6-1,0-0,6-10,0-15,0-20,0-25,0 Employment Output -15,6-19, Source: IBGE 29

30 Electronic machinery and equipments 30

31 Electronic Machinery and Equipments Import penetration in apparent consumption Electronic machinery and equipments, Main indicators: accumulated variation Electronic machinery and equipments, GDP 28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production -9,3 Apparent Consumption Exports 9,1 Imports 99,3 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011). 31

32 Pulp and Paper Source: IBGE. *Employment does not include pulp 32

33 Pulp and Paper 33

34 Pulp and Paper Import penetration in apparent consumption Pulp and Paper, Main indicators: accumulated variation Pulp and paper, GDP 28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production 15,0 Apparent Consumption Exports 55,9 Imports 73,3 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011). 34

35 Textile 15,0 12,5 10,0 11,2 7,5 5,0 2,5 1,5 3,1 3,8 1,5 4,6 0,0-2,5-5,0-1,9-1,9-7,5-10,0-7,5-6,4-7,0-12,5-15,0-17,5 Employment Output -14,9-20, Source: IBGE 35

36 Textile 36

37 Textiles 37

38 Exchange Rate Debate in WTO 38

39 Exchange Rate Debate in WTO Double Asymmetry in exchange rate is a Brazilian case nowadays, but it is a general issue Exchange rate is a sovereign decision RER belongs to the scope of IMF Should the WTO participate on the discussion? 39

40 The private sector expects it to be Proposal for debates: Exchange rate debate in WTO What is the best policy instrument to deal with double asymmetry problems? Anti-subsides? Safeguards? Antidumping measures? Let s think about mechanisms that neutralize exchange rate effects over international trade (beyond tariff palliatives) 40

41 Conclusion The double asymmetry problem exits It is a severe issue, it is provoking adjustments that are not recoverable in the long run. This issue interests every country, today is a Brazilian problem, but tomorrow It has to be faced, otherwise countries will create own solutions against the distortion Tariff war and a protectionist international wave must be avoided 41

42 Thank you 42