6 th Capital Markets Day 12 December 2008, Vienna

Transcription

1 ERSTE GROUP, Vienna Solid performance in a Edit Papp, CEO, Erste Bank Hungary

2 Doing business in Hungary Attractive economy evidenced by high capital investments/eu funds and World Bank recognition Since 199, nd in inflow of FDI per capita (EUR 6,981) in CEE By end-7, 1 st in CEE in EU-funds called from the 4-6 program period (8% or EUR.bn) Hungary moved up from position 5 to 41 in World Bank s 8 Ease of Doing Business ranking of 181 countries Many multinationals relocate shared service centers to Hungary Sound market infrastructure and institutions Legal environment advanced Communication and technological infrastructure developed Central geographical position in CEE hub effect in logistics Improving macroeconomic imbalances Recent improvements in setting up new businesses Incorporating a firm down to 5 days Electronic state administration of enterprises compulsory Full taxation process electronic Land registry reform

3 Presentation topics Hungarian macroeconomic environment Addressing the impacts of the financial crisis Contraction in 9 Convergence to Maastricht criteria on track Banking market developments Loan and deposit growth expected End of CHF-lending, EUR in focus EBH maintains strong position EBH position and strategy Financial highlights Focus shifts to EUR-based loans Higher provisioning to reflect cautious risk approach Spotlight on deposit collection Post is on right track for effective deposit collection 3

4 Macroeconomic environment Addressing the impacts of the financial crisis International financial crisis impacted Hungary in two areas High volatility of the HUF versus the EUR and CHF Risk of government solvency problems due to illiquid bond market IMF, World Bank and EU agreed with Hungary to introduce an EUR bn package Aim is to boost economy and restore confidence EUR.4bn to support commercial banks Fully covers Hungary s short-term foreign debt Government and Central Bank actions taken so far New austerity package introduced Rate cuts started shortly after 3 bps base hike in October turmoil currently at 1.5% Reserve requirement eased from 5% to % adding HUF 3-4bn (EUR bn) liquidity to the system Due to these actions, Hungary on track to reach most Maastricht criteria by 1 ERM II possible already 9 EUR adoption may come sooner (1-13) than originally expected 4

5 Macroeconomic environment Contraction in 9 Real GDP to shrink next year Export driven economy with significant exposure to EU countries especially Germany Low domestic consumption Corporate investments on halt Unemployment to rise slightly (7.8%->8.%) Decrease in private, stagnation in public sector Impact partly offset through continuing investments by multinational manufacturers, service centers 4% % -% -4% -6% 4.1% 8.9 Key economic indicators % 1.1% % e 9e GDP (% real change yoy) Analysis of growth drivers GDP/capita in EUR thousand Improving imbalances create base for recovery New austerity package drives down budget deficit below 3% by next year Room for targeted tax cuts Tax cuts contribute to revive consumption 4% % -% -4% -6% -8% 1.9% -6.% 1.5% -1.8%.% -3.% % 6 7 8e 9e Private consumption (% real change yoy) Gross fixed investment (% real change yoy) Source: Erste Group Research 5

6 Macroeconomic environment Convergence to Maastricht criteria on track Inflation continues to decline Inflation reached 5.7% y/y in September Falling oil, stable food prices External debt to be key issue External debt amounted to 97% of GDP in Q, of which 16% is short term fully covered by central bank reserves Public debt to GDP at 66%, on track to 6 criteria Budget deficit (3.3% in 8) on track to 3% criteria Interest rates expected to slowly decline After 3 bps rate hike, central bank started an easing cycle Bond yields slightly falling as confidence gradually returns Current account deficit has decreased significantly Due to austerity package introduced in 6 FDI inflows covered 8 of current account deficit in 7 as of GDP 1 8% 6% 4% % -% -4% 1 5% -5% -1-15% Unemployment vs inflation vs wage growth 7.5% 7.7% 7.8% 8.% 5.9% 3.9% 8. 6.% 3.7% -.8% -1.% -.8% 6 7 8e 9e Recorded unemployment (%) Average inflation Real personal disposable income (% change yoy) Interest rates vs government balance % -9.% % -.4% 6 7 8e 9e Budget balance (% of GDP) Average 3M offer rate Source: Erste Group Research 6

7 Presentation topics Hungarian macroeconomic environment Addressing the impacts of the financial crisis Contraction in 9 Convergence to Maastricht criteria on track Banking market developments Loan and deposit growth expected End of CHF-lending, EUR in focus EBH maintains strong position EBH position and strategy Financial highlights Focus shifts to EUR-based loans Higher provisioning to reflect cautious risk approach Spotlight on deposit collection Post is on right track for effective deposit collection 7

8 Banking market Loan and deposit growth expected Banking asset penetration low compared to Western Europe Banking asset penetration has increased by over 1 points in recent years Loans to GDP at 61% (USA 17%, Germany 16%) Market has been driven by FX-based retail loans, slowdown is expected in total loan growth from end- 8 in EUR billion Banking market summary 11% 13% % e 9e Savings market expected to be flat Deposits to GDP at 48% Total assets Total assets/gdp Increased only 6% points since 3 Shift from investment funds to bank deposits due to higher interest rates is already visible As opposed to loans, vast majority is LCY-based Overall earnings of banks to decrease Lower loan growth Pressure on margins Competing for deposits at loss making pricing in EUR billion % Banking market - loans and deposits development 1.4% % 7.3% % 7.1% % 6 7 8e 9e Higher risk costs Total loans Total loans growth YTY Total deposits Total deposits growth YTY Source: Erste Group Research 8

9 Banking market End of CHF-lending, EUR in focus Main banks have stopped or limited CHF-based lending EUR loans to dominate, HUF is only likely for shorter-term personal loans More than 9 of newly placed housing loans were CHF-based due to interest rate differential More than 5 of outstanding retail portfolio is FX-based Avg. EUR-based loan monthly installment is half of that of HUF-based Loan growth will moderate from former high levels to around 6% in 9 Per capita indebtedness: significant growth but still at moderate levels Household loan indebtedness more than doubled since 3 Significant room for growth compared to Western-European levels (household debt to GDP at ~5% vs 6-1 in WE) in EUR thousand Banking market - FX share in retail lending Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 LCY retail loans FX retail loans Per capita indebtedness Household loans Housing loans 9

10 Banking market EBH maintains strong position Largest players by total assets OTP, CIB (Intesa SanPaolo), KH (KBC), MKB (Bayerische LB) EBH has second largest customer base Current market shares Total assets: 7.% Customer loans: 1. (FX: 1.) Retail loans: 11.7% Customer deposits: 5.9% Retail deposits: 6.% Excellent network coverage branches 7 Commercial Centers for SME clients Alternative sales channels Leveraging 35 -strong network of post offices Extensive agent network Origo Klikkbank (online banking) 14% 1% 1 8% 6% 4% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% Market share development - asset side 7.1% 1.8% 8.% % 8.% 7.1% 11.4% % 11.4% 8.3% 7.% 11.7% 8. Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Total assets Retail loans Corporate loans Market share development - liability side 6.3% 5.1% 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% 4.9% 6.% 5.3% 6.% 5. Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Retail deposits Corporate deposits 1

11 Presentation topics Hungarian macroeconomic environment Addressing the impacts of the financial crisis Contraction in 9 Convergence to Maastricht criteria on track Banking market developments Loan and deposit growth expected End of CHF-lending, EUR in focus EBH maintains strong position EBH position and strategy Financial highlights Focus shifts to EUR-based loans Higher provisioning to reflect cautious risk approach Spotlight on deposit collection Post is on right track for effective deposit collection 11

12 Position and strategy Financial highlights Operating income increasing 17% in YTD vs 7 NII driven by high demand for retail loans Commission income driven by payment and lending fees Operating expenses under strict cost control CIR (54.9% in 1-9 8) has been declining Risk costs have increased in line with loan growth and cautious provisioning Quarterly spreads vs risk costs in EUR million Segment operating performance (5) (48) Operating income per quarter 5 5 (56) (59) (6) Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q 8 Q3 8 Operating income Operating expenses Operating result 3.5% 3..5%. 1.5% 1..5%. 3.6%.58% 1.7% 3.5% 1.84% 1.76%.98%.19%.94%.94%.1.97% 3.3%.5% Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q 8 Q3 8 Asset spread Liability spread Risk provisions/customer loans 1.6% in EUR million Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q 8 Q3 8 Net interest income Net fee and commission income Net trading result 1

13 Position and strategy Focus shifts to EUR-based loans Loan growth has been outpacing deposits Main drivers have been housing and free utilization mortgage loans More than 9 of newly placed mortgage loans were CHF-based due to very attractive monthly installments Loan to deposit ratio at, higher than market average Fair LTVs (65-7 average in retail segment) EUR-based loans will be in spotlight CHF lending will be completely outpriced EUR lending is still much more attractive than HUF loans due to interest rate differential HUF may be more prevalent in personal loans Slowdown expected in loan growth Avg. loan growth is expected to be single digit in 9, somewhat lower than in the previous year () in EUR billion in EUR billion Loans vs deposits Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Customer loans Customer deposits Customer loans: LCY vs FX Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Customer loans - LCY Customer loans - FX 13

14 Position and strategy Higher provisioning to reflect cautious risk approach Portfolio quality set to worsen Deterioration is expected in retail segment Due to rise in unemployment Extreme weakening of HUF would adversely increase debt burden (sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact at 3 HUF/EUR) Corporate segment Already weaker since austerity package was introduced in 6 In current situation EU export related companies will also come under pressure Segment Hungary: Credit risk by class (Q3 8: EUR 7.5 bn) 7.7% % 89.5% Low risk Mgmt attention Substandard Non-performing But portfolio will show robustness in economic downturn Avg. retail client has higher income than country avg. Protection afforded by high level of collateralisation in all segments Structure of the retail portfolio 91.1% 91.6% 6.7%.1% 6.3%.1% mortgage non-mortgage micro 14

15 Position and strategy Focus on deposit collection Deposit growth has been in line with market trends FX deposits are insignificant compared to FX loans Deposits expected to increase by 19% in 9 Up from -1.4% in 8 Shift from investment funds to deposits in EUR billion Loan vs deposit structure by currency FX LCY Customer loans Customer deposits Focus will be on deposit taking More intense focus on deposit collection through Hungarian Post network Strengthen private banking activities to collect funding and fees Client activation Deposit campaigns with strong marketing support Conversion of leaking mutual fund volume into deposits and guaranteed structured notes in EUR billion % Erste Bank Hungary - loans and deposits development % -1.4% % e 9e 3. 5% 15% 5% -5% Total loans Total deposits Total loans growth YTY Total deposit growth YTY 15

16 Position and strategy Post is on right track for effective deposit collection 4: Strategic agreements were signed 5-6: network expansion Online network has been extended to 35 post offices (5: 48 post offices) 6-7: focus on increasing sales volumes Successful launch of consumer loans Credit card was introduced in June 6 Increasing number of new clients Volume of investment funds is encouraging Focus will be on deposit collection 15% of local retail savings is from Post sources, of which 45% are deposits Number of postal current accounts are growing rapidly, amounting to 154,854 in September 8 (1% growth YoY) Contribution of Postal revenues is expected to increase within retail, 15, 1, 5, Number of accounts 17,64 135,3 138,85 144,41 154,854 Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep Investment funds and personal loans (EURmn) Sep 7 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Investment fund (HUFbn) Personal loan (HUFbn) 16