Recent Trends for Petroleum, E ectricity

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1 Recent Trend for Petroleum, E ectricity & Renewable Wetern State Coordination Meeting WebEx December 2, 218 Gordon Schremp Energy Aement Diviion California Energy Commiion gordon. chremp@energy. ca. gov Jion

2 M NJ w ) 1/2/215 ' 3/2/215 5/2/215-7/2/215-9/2/215-11/2/215-1/2/216-3/2/216-5/2/216-7/2/216 9/2/216 11/2/216 1/2/217 3/2/217 5/2/217 7/2/217 9/2/217-11/2/217-1/2/218-3/2/218-5/2/218-7/2/218-9/2/218 11/2/218 - Cent Per Gallon U1 Ln g ^ - i Q) 3 CQ (D ( N> co 4^ (Q i Q i1 8 ^ w ^ < co!^ Ln 3. i ) Tl ^ N3 CJ1 g co co n CD CD QJ in H) n -n en!2o ri ^ CD in

3 n?? U3 1/2/215 ^ 3/2/215 5/2/215-7/2/215-9/2/215 11/2/215-1/2/216-3/2/216 i 5/2/216 ^ 7/2/216 -j 9/2/216 -i 11/2/216-1/2/217-3/2/217 5/2/217-7/2/217 } 9/2/217 -; 11/2/217 J 1/2/218 -\ 3/2/218 5/2/218 7/2/218-9/2/218-11/2/218 -}. Cent Per Gallon U1 n!s> U1 ^ c m N < co ^1 a ^ - C. 3 i Q) (Q ( (D Cfl T1 ^ 1 N3 Kl ) < 1 n u ^ CD n> 1 fd H) n -n on 2 n ^ ro Ln

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5 Stillwater Aociate LLi CFP and LCFS Update Prepared for Wetern State Petroleum Aociation February 6, 219 ;TM

6 > The figure in thi lide deck were developed by Sti water Aociate LLC through analyi of information publihed by the California Air Reource Board, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, and Oil Pricing nformation Service.

7 Cot of California LCFS to Fuel Price Stillwater Aociate LLi 25 -T The Cot of California LCFS in Conumer Gaoline & Dieel Price :FS Cot in E1 yearly credit price=*'lcfs Cot in ULSD at Yearly A^. Price 219 Value reflect January price only 4.6 cpg S.Gc^jg^;^ 4.3cpg Dieel Cl reduction tandard wa 3.5% n Cl Rouciion.2?St C. Sh 1-OW 1.% 1:% 2:% 3.'5% 1.%' 6~25% 7.1%'."tw j^l. <.p^ C2i)9Stiai nteraocilte5u. C. AUrifbtl Source: Oil Pricing nfomatton Senrice Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

8 Cot of California LCFS in Gaoline Price 7 -T The Cot of California LCFS in Conumer Gaoline Price -T $35 CFS Cot in EO yearly credit price LCFS Credit Price $/MT O. lcpg/ ^^ 3.6 cpg. Cpg^--^.8 Cpg.4 Cpg O.T^Pj 219 Value reflect January price only Cl Reduction.25%.5% l.ck 1.% 1.% 2.% 3.5% 5.% 6.25% 7.5% c2l9stlll»itera«:iatotlc. Anri8)it«nCT»t Source: Oil Pricing nfomatton Senrice Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

9 Cot of California LCFS in Dieel Price Stillwater Aociate LL< 7 -T 6 + The Cot of California LCFS in Conumer Dieel Price c==3tcfs Cot in ULSD at Yearly Avg. Price -*-LCFS Credit Price $/MT $35 + $ j3 i 2 + $168. $191.5 /* 219 Value reflect January price only + $25 J- $2 g + $15 -- $1 1 ff $ CReduction.25%.5% 1.% 1.% 1.% C219StiUti»terAiMciil«U, C. Alri^it»nien»d..8 cpg. 4 cpg. 7 cpe % --t- $ % 3.5% 6.25% 7.5% Source; Oil Pricing nfomation Servtee ;T Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

10 Cot of Oregon CFP in Fuel Price 14 + The Cot of Oregon CFP in Conumer Gaoline and Dieel Price :FP cot n Retail E1 Gaoline yearly credit price. CFP Cot n B5 ^arty credit price Value reflect January price only Cl Reduction. 25%.5% 1. % 1. 5$-c 2.5% 3. 5% 5. % 6. 5% 8.% 1. % 219 Stilln-ater Aociate LLC. All rigbtreervea Source: OrcgonDEQ Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

11 Cot of Oregon CFP in Gaoline Price Stillwatec Aociate LL( 7 -T The Cot of Oregon CFP in Conumer Gaoline Price T $ i CFP Cot En Retail E1 Gaoline yearly credit price -CFP Credit Price $/MT $ Value reflect January price only $3 $25 + $2 $15 $1 -- $5 vf *. i areducuom.25%. 5% 1. % 1. 5% 2.5% 3.5% 5.% 6.5% 8. BS. 1.% $ ] C21SSlilhnlnAn<xlUBLLC. AlriihfntHved. Source: OTegmDEQ ;TM Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

12 Cot of Oregon CFP in Dieel Price 7 T The Cot of Oregon CFP in Conumer Dieel Price -T $35 go 4- *===»CFP Cot!nB5 Dieel yea riy credit price + $ ! -CFP Credit Price $/MT + $25.</>. $2» ^ *rf $127 $ Value reflect January price only $15 -g 6 ^- $1 + $5 - $ aitefauction. 25%. 5% 1.% 1. 5% 2. 5% 3. 5K S. ;< 6.5% 8. % 1.% C 219 Stiltn-atCT Aociate LLC. All ri^itajwaved. J Source- Oregon DEQ Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC 8

13 California LCFS Credit Generation Stillwater Aociate LLC «219 Stftvater Aaociatc LLC. All leh Kcn'cd. Source; CARB! 12,, 11,, 1,, 9,, -f Net California LCFS Credit by Quarter and Cumulative r 2,, - 1,5, 1,, 8,, 1 7,, -j % j 6,, -j " 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 5, (5,) (1,,) (1,5,) lq 2Q 3Cl 4<l lq!2q 3Cl 4Q lq 2a 3Q 4Q lq 2Q[3Q 4Q lq 2Q 3Q 4Q iq 2Q 3Q 4Q lcl 2Cl 3Q 4Q lq 2Q 3Q ZOU Z C. Reduction. 25%. 5% 1. % 1. % 1. % 2. % 3. 5% : Net Credit for Quarter (RH Axi) MT Cumulative Net Credit (LH Axi) MT (2,,) Analyi by Stillwater Aociate LLC

14 Oregon CFP Credit 219 Stillwater Aociate LLC. A11 right reerved. Source: Oregon DEQ 1, 2, r Net Oregon CFP Credit by Quarter and Cumulative 2, 1,, 15, 1, 8, 6, ; 3 4, -j- 2, 5, (5,) (1,) (15,) 1Q 2Q ^Q tlq lq 2Q ^Q»Q lq 2Q ^Q flq lq 2Q ^Q 4Q \iq. 2Q ^Q 4Q 1Q lq 1Q ]2Q ^Q Q 1Q 2Q ^Q 1Q jiq 2i a Reduction.25%.5% 1.% 1.5% 2. 5,. 3. 5% 5.% 6. 5% (2,) Net Credit forquarterfrh Axi) MT Cumulative Net Credit (LH Axi) MT Analyi by Stitlwater Aociate LLC 1

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