VIETNAM WEEKLY BOND MARKET & INDEXES

Transcription

1 VIETNAM WEEKLY BOND MARKET & INDEXES CONTENTS 1. Headlines 2. Vietnam Macro Indicators 3. Vietnam Bond Market 4. Auction information 5. Comments & Recommendation

2 HEADLINES Macro Economy Bond News Hanoi s consumer price index (CPI) in March 2013 is estimated to have Vietnam was rated the fastest growing bond market in emerging East fallen by 0.21% on month, the municipal General Statistics Office Asia in 2012, largely due to the rapid expansion in the country's gov- (GSO)said. The March figure has narrowed the capital s CPI to increase ernment bond market, according to the Asian Development Bank's by 5.7% on year and 2.04% from December (ADB) latest Asia Bond Monitor. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 7.5% on year in Hanoi and The Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP) sold VND450 billion out 7.6% on year in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the first quarter of 2013, of VND1 trillion worth of government-backed bonds, distributed the municipal General Statistics Offices of these cities unveiled. equally for 3 and 5-year tenors or 45% of the offered value at the Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) was estimated to run $1.32 billion trade sur- yield of 9.67% p.a. in an auction on Mar 15. plus in the first quarter of this year, including $440.3 million trade sur- Vietnam s bonds rose, spurring the biggest decline in the five-year plus in March. In details, the city reaped total of $6.58 billion from ex- yield in almost two months, after the government sold debt at lower ports in Q1/2013, up 12.8% on year. interest rates. The dong was little changed. Import Export Investment High inventory, a sharp decline in price and poor consumption, has sent The Prime Minister has approved the selection of Japan s Nexco Cen- sugar plants into despair; compelling the Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar tral Company as the main investor in a project to upgrade the Phap Association to ask relevant departments to flex export policy for sugar Van-Cau Gie highway project under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) to save sugar producers and farmers. contract. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) Agriculture-related firms from Vietnam, Japan and the Republic of has affirmed that Vietnam s catfish exports would keep going to the US Korea are planning to pour investment in Myanmar, a rice exporter in as normal, denying the rumor that the catfish export has got stuck be- Southeast Asia, according to new reports. cause of the high anti-dumping duties. FDI sector gained US$11 billion in export revenue in the first two Vietnam's exports to some large African countries plunged in February. months of 2013 and occupied 58.75% of the country s total export Export earnings from Egypt, the Ivory Coast and Ghana tumbled 40 per- volume. Noticeably, FDI enterprises made full use of Viet Nam s ad- cent to US$34 million, 59 percent to US$4.8 million and 13 percent to vantages of low input and labor costs. The sector s major exports in- US$13.2 million, respectively. clude chemicals, chemical products, plastic raw materials and steel.

3 HEADLINES Markets Gold, Forex Energy The total interbank trading value of the dong surged by 18.2% to U.S. crude inched down toward $93 a barrel on Thursday amid un- VND trillion in the week ending March 15 from VND certainty whether Cyprus could avert a financial meltdown, but the trillion a week earlier while that of the dollar climbed by 6.4% to Federal Reserve's reassurance that it would keep supporting the VND trillion from VND trillion. world's largest economy limited losses. Gold traded little changed on Thursday, after snapping four days of U.S. crude steadied above $92 a barrel on Wednesday after posting gains in the previous session as the Federal Reserve's pledge to stick its biggest daily loss in nearly a month in the previous session, al- with its bond-buying program offset worries about a debt crisis in though uncertainty in the euro zone after Cyprus' rejection of bailout Cyprus. terms is expected to keep a lid on prices. Gold traded steady on Wednesday, holding near a three-week high as U.S. crude futures edged up on Tuesday toward $94 a barrel, but Cyprus's rejection of bailout terms triggered worries about a default, gains were limited by worries that a radical bailout plan in Cyprus underpinning safe haven demand in gold. could reignite the financial crisis in the euro zone. Banking Finance Real Estate Vietcapital Bank announced to seek shareholders approval in written Housing developers in Vietnam have got the green light from the forms to appoint additional supervisor and member of the Board of Construction Ministry to divide large apartments into smaller units Directors (BOD), the local newswire TTVN.vn reported. of at least 45 square meters for which they expect greater demand. Saigon Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SCB) got approval from the Twelve property projects in HCMC are seeking approval for conver- State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to raise its charter capital from sion into low-cost housing developments in a bid to improve sluggish VND trillion to VND trillion, the central bank said in a sales, according to the city s Department of Construction. post on its website. The Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUD) has been The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) net injected VND276 billion via open asked to provide a report on the implementation of the My Dinh 2 market operation (OMO) on March 18, the local newswire project in Tu Liem District, particularly focusing on the construction NDHMoney.vn reported, citing data compiled by SSI Research. From of infrastructure and schools. HUD must also submit a report about March 15, 2012, the central bank issued in total VND trillion the legality of the unused land and the transfer of land to two other T-bills, of which VND trillion debts have matured. companies, the Ha Noi authorities requires.

4 VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS Macro Indicators Date Dec-2012 Dec-2011 Pct change GDP (Bill VND) 977,899,3 1,453, % CPI % Export(Mill USD) 10,400 9, % Import(Mill USD) 10,600 9, % Trade Deficit (Mill USD) % Date Feb 2013 Jan 2013 Pct change CPI % Export (Mill USD) 7,500 10, Import (Mill USD) Trade deficit (Mill USD) 6,600 9, % %

5 Average Vietnam Banks Interest Rates Yield Curve 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 24M 36M VCB 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 10.00% 10.50% 10.50% ACB 8.80% 8.80% 8.80% 8.80% 11.00% 11.50% CTG 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 10.50% 10.00% 12.00% 10.00% BIDV 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 9.50% 9.00% 9.00% Average 8.20% 8.20% 8.20% 8.20% 10.25% 10.25% 10.38% VND Index Date Market movers Source: VCB. ACB. Vietinbank. BIDV 03/22/2013 USD 20,940-03/22/2013 EUR 27,017 (71.20) 03/22/2013 JPY /22/2013 CNY 3, /22/2013 TWD 701 (1.39) 03/22/2013 SGD 16, /22/2013 KRW 19 (0.06) 0.00% -0.26% 1.08% 0.02% -0.20% 0.06% -0.30%

6 Vietnam Bond Index Vietnam Treasury Spot Yield Curve Name Value Change Vietnam Bond Index - Corporate % Vietnam Bond Index - Government % Vietnam Bond Index - Composite % Vietnam Bond Index - Treasury % Vietnam Bond Index - Municipal % Vietnam Bond Index - Financials % Vietnam Bond Index - Utilities % Vietnam Bond Index - Industrials % Vietnam Bond Index Year Treasury % Vietnam Bond Index Year Treasury % Vietnam Bond Index Year Treasury % Vietnam Bond Index Year Treasury % Vietnam Bond Index Year Treasury % Name Value Change Vietnam 1 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 2 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 3 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 4 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 5 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 6 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 7 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 8 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 9 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 10 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 11 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 12 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 13 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield % Vietnam 14 Year Zero-coupon Treasury Spot Yield %

7 Trading Summary on Secondary Trading date Total Volume Total Value (VND) Auction Calendar Offering Company Type of issue Type of auction Maturity Maturity Date Offering value Auction Date 3/22/2013 3/21/2013 3/20/2013 3/19/2013 3/18/2013 5,011, ,222,650,623 21,614,774 2,282,055,524,204 15,400,000 1,696,343,100,000 20,070,000 2,140,805,260,000 15,750,000 1,705,142,600,000 State Treasury Ministry of Finance State Treasury Ministry of Finance State Treasury Ministry of Finance Normal Combined 3 year 3/25/2016 3,000,000,000,000 3/21/2013 Normal Combined 5 year 3/25/2018 3,000,000,000,000 3/21/2013 Normal Combined 5 year 3/25/2018 1,000,000,000,000 3/21/2013 Total 77,846,607 8,358,569,134,827 Date of Issuers Maturity Auction Auction Results Winning Volume Coupon Updated: 3/22/2013 Yield Lowest Yield Highest Yield Ceiling Yield State Treasury Ministry of Finance 5 year 3/13/2013 3,000,000,000, State Treasury Ministry of Finance 3 year 3/13/2013 2,000,000,000, State Treasury Ministry of Finance 2year 3/13/2013 1,950,000,000, Vietnam Development Bank 10 year 3/11/ ,000,000, Vietnam Development Bank 5 year 3/11/ Vietnam Development Bank 2 year 3/11/ ,000,000,

8 Corporate Bonds Issuers Maturity Issuing Date Total Value Yield (%) Type HAGL Group (HAG) 3 year 12/28/ ,000,000, Individual Power Engineering Consulting Joint Stock Company 4 2 year 11/24/11 51,000,000, Convertible HOANG QUAN Serviced Apartment Investment (HQD) 3 year 11/30/ ,000,000,000 Float Convertible Khang Dien Investment & Trading House JSC (KDH) 3 year 09/20/ ,000,000, Individual Song Da Urban & Industrial Zone Investment and Development Joint Stock Company 3 year 09/01/ ,000,000, Individual SeASecurities 800,000,000,000 na Individual HOCHIMINH Stock Exchange 5year 8/24/ ,000,000, Individual Sacombank (SBS) 1 year 05/17/ ,000,000,000 Float na HAGL Group (HAG) 5 year 05/11/ ,000,000 USD International Vietnam Expressway Corporation 5 year 03/2011 1,000,000,000, Project Saigon Securities Company (SSI) na 03/26/2011 2,000,000,000,000 4 Convertible Saconbank Securities Company (SBS) 1 year 02/25/ ,000,000, na Saconbank Securities Company (SBS) na 01/18/ ,000,000, na Saconbank Securities Company (SBS) 1 year 12/13/ ,000,000,000 na na Saconbank Securities Company (SBS) 1 year 11/30/ ,000,000,000 na na Saconbank Securities Company (SBS) 1 year 11/15/ ,000,000,000 na na

9 COMMENTS & RECOMMENDATION The trading volume and trading value have decreased dramatically this week compared to last week. This suggests that the Vietnam Bond market needs to be more stable in the future. The government and central banks have to do their job more effectively in order to attract investor to invest their money into Vietnam bond market. Contact Information For further information regarding this report. please contact Research Team Woori CBV Securities Corporation 14 Tran Binh Trong. Hoan Kiem District. Hanoi. Vietnam Call center: Disclaimer This report is issued and distributed by Woori CBV Securities Corporation for the general information of institutional and professional investors. Information and opinions presented in this document have been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable. but we makes no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. The use of Vietnam Securities Indices and data in this report is permitted and licensed to Woori CBV Securities Corporation by Vietnam Securities Index Co. an independent research house and Bloomberg Finance L.P. This document should not be considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. The financial instruments contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments. Copyright Woori CBV Securities Corporation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be copied. reproduced. published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the prior written permission of Woori CBV Securities Corporation. Please cite sources when quoting.