THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) Website:

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1 THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) Website: MONTHLY REPORT JULY 2012 Research Department research@tcsc.vn 1. Overview macroeconomic 2. Financial market 3. Stock market 4. Stock market in August 2012

2 OVERVIEW VIETNAM S MACROECONOMIC Vietnam July CPI Falls Further By 0.29%: GSO Vietnam consumer price index (CPI) in July is estimated to have declined by 0.29% from June, the second straight negative on month decline, mostly dragged by prices of traffic and housing and construction materials, the General Statistics Office said. The July CPI cut back the figure to +2.52% from December 2011 and +5.35% from July As many as 4 out of the11 baskets of goods contributed to the calculation of the CPI data saw their prices fall this month. The biggest decline was seen in prices of traffic, down 2.71%, followed by a fall in housing and construction materials prices, down 0.93%. Prices of food and restaurant services down 0.47% and postal services and telecommunication prices fell 0.08%. Prices of other six groups of goods recorded rises from 0.11% to 0.51%. Hanoi, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong all major cities posted negative July CPIs. VN attracts $8bn in FDI Viet Nam has attracted US$8.03 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) during the first seven months of this year, down by 67 per cent year-on-year, according to the Foreign Investment Agency's latest statistics. Up to 584 new foreign-invested projects, worth $5.2 billion, were granted licences during the period, about 56 per cent of number at the same time last year. However, capital in existing projects surged. More than 230 projects registered to increase their capital

3 by a total of $2.83 billion, a yearly increase of 5.2 per cent. During January-July, FDI disbursement almost equalled that for the same period last year, reached $6.25 billion or 99.2 per cent of last year's figure Vietnam gains 10-year lowest trade deficit in first 7 months Vietnam gained a trade surplus of about 100 million U.S. dollars in July, equivalent to 1 percent of the export value, which helped reduce the trade deficit in the first seven months of this year at about 58 million U.S. dollars, the lowest level over the past ten years, reported the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) on Wednesday. During the 7- month period, the country's total export value reached 62.9 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19 percent year- on-year, of which the domestic sector contributed 23.9 billion U.S. dollars, down 1.7 percent, while the foreign direct investment ( FDI) sector made 39 billion U.S. dollars, up 36.6 percent. Meanwhile, the country spent 63 billion U.S. dollars for the imports, up 7.3 percent year-onyear, of which the domestic sector accounted for 30 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.3 percent, while the FDI sector spent nearly 33 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.3 percent, year-on-year. Of the country's total import value during the 7- month period, 15.3 billion U.S. dollars came from China, an increase of 15.6 percent yearon-year.

4 GDP grow 4.38 percent in first six months The General Statistics Office on June 29 announced at a press conference that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the first six months of the year rose by 4.32 percent compared to the same period last year. The economy has showed signs of recovery in the second quarter of this year, especially in industrial and construction sectors which rose from 2.94 percent in the first quarter to 4.52 percent in the second quarter. In the first six months, agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors increased 3.8 percent over the same period last year, of which agriculture rose 3 percent; forestry gained 5.7 percent; and fishery surged 5.8 percent.

5 FINANCIAL MARKET IN JULY 2012 GOVERNMENT BONDS Date Issuer Term Offering value (VND bn.) Winning value (VND bn.) Successful ratio Bidding rate (%) Successful rate (%) No. participants 05/07/2012 Treasury 3 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 5 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 2 1,000-0% /07/2012 VBSP 3 1,000-0% /07/2012 VBSP 5 1,000-0% /07/2012 Treasury 2 1, % /07/2012 Treasury 3 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 5 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 2 1, % /07/2012 Treasury 5 2,000 1,300 65% /07/2012 VBSP 3 1,000-0% /07/2012 VBSP 5 1,000-0% /07/2012 Treasury % /07/2012 Treasury 5 2,000 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 3 2,000 2, % /07/2012 Treasury 2 1,000 1, % /07/2012 VBSP 3 1,000-0% /07/2012 VBSP 5 1,000-0% In July 2012, Ha Noi trading exchange held seven auctions of bonds issued by Treasury and Vietnam Bank for Social Polices with the total issuing value of VND 24,500 bn. for 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year bond. According to the results announced in July 2012, total successful amount was VND 8,750 bn., as for 2-year bonds, VND 2,100 billion worth of bonds were sold, with the interest rate % p.a; as for 3-year, VND 2,650 billion worth of bonds were sold with the interest rate of % p.a; as for 5-year VND 4,000 billion worth of bonds were sold with the interest rate of % p.a. Successful rate in July is 35.7%, the terms has highest successful sold rate was 2-year bond with the successful rate was 52.5%. Followed key interest rate issued by SBV, bidding rate in the first half of this year tended to decrease.

6 HNX has finished the training course as well as co-operated with trading members to install the Launch Online Bond Auction system which is expected to implement on 31 st July This system is considered to make auction faster and more convenient & effective. On June 18 th 2012, the SBV Governor issued Circular No. 21/2012/TT-NHNN about regulations on lending, borrowing, trading term valuable papers among credit institutions. This circular will be used to monitor strictly transactions on the interbank market. As a result, it will have a positive impact on liquidity in the banking system as well as on the fluctuation of interest rates in the future.

7 INTERBANK EXCHANGE RATE In July 2012, the central bank continued to keep the interbank VND/USD exchange rate at 20,828 dong. USD/VND exchange rate announced by commercial banks jumped down to the bottom in July 20 th. Vietnamese export surplus was VND100 million in July 2012, drove the total trade deficit in the first seven months sharply decreased to 97% YoY. The July export turnover was estimated at USD9.6 billion, mitigated 2.93% MoM but rose 2.97% YoY. While the import turnover was estimated at USD9.5 billion, downed 0.3% MoM but increased 15.56% YoY. Thus, this is the countinual continuous second month that Vietnam continued to have trade surplus of USD100 million. Accordingly, the total trade deficit in the first 7 months reached USD164 million, equivalent of 0.26% export turnover. The narrow in trade balance deficit was the factor that positively supported to the rates in ending months of the year. However, trade deficit partly showed that the weak economy and there was no clear prosperity in operating business.

8 GOLD MARKET Source: SJS In July, gold price is in range of VND mn., at the morning of July 31 st, gold price stood around VND million/tael, VND230,000 higher than early of month. During July, gold price is less fluctuated; therefore, buying power of the market was weak. At the HCM City market, purchasing power is slow although sometimes domestic gold price have decreased at a little deeper than the world gold price. Source: TCSC

9 STOCK MARKET IN JULY 2012 After reaching the bottom on July 10 th, both VN Index and HNX Index are recovered strongly and touch the peak on July 19th, VN Index and HNX Index had increased 5.7% and 7.4% respectively. Stock markets have the decreasing consecutive days. At the last trading day in July, VN Index decreased 7.89 points as 1.87% compared to last trading day in June; meanwhile, HNX Index down 2.65% to points. Liquidity in two bourses falls down steeply in July, especially Ho Chi Minh exchange. The average trading value in Ho Chi Minh and Ha Noi stock exchange are VND633bn. and VND350bn. respectively, felt 44% and 17% compared to last month. Since July 01st, retail electricity price have raised 5%, petro price increased on July 20th. Increasing of petro and electricity price at the same time will effect to the

10 purchasing power as well as push corporate to harder position. These factors effect to stock market in July. In July, the listed companies have to publish the results of quarter 2/2012, published information is not very well, it influences the market in the current period. Foreigners net bought in two bourses in July. On Ho Chi Minh stock exchange, foreigners net bought VND84bn. and on Ha Noi stock exchange they net bought VND61bn. Along with the falling of trading value on the whole market, the trading value of foreign investors also drop off 51% compared to June, total selling and buying value of these investors in June was VND 2,973 bn. MARKET ANALYSIS IN AUGUST 2012 Reducing of liquidity in July shows the trend outside market of investors during this period. CPI is expected to continue decline in August when consumption is decreasing, besides the difficulty of the enterprise has not been removed although the state is launching a series of policies to support enterprises. Side way phase as the current may extend for a while. Investors can take advantage of recovery session to sale of the stock.

11 REFERENCES

12 Authors Trang Nguyen Thu

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