VNL Limited Update: 10 November 2017 Zurich - Switzerland. Classified: Public

Transcription

1 VNL Limited Update: 10 November 2017 Zurich - Switzerland Classified: Public

2 Disclaimer The information contained herein has been prepared by VinaCapital Group Limited (the Company") and is subject to updating, completion, revision, further verification and amendment without notice. The information contained herein has not been approved by any listing authority or any investment regulator. The information does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall they or any part of them form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, expressed or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its directors, officers, partners, employees, agents or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise for any other communication written or otherwise. The information herein may not be reproduced, re-distributed or passed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose. By accepting receipt of this document, you agree to be bound by the limitations and restrictions set out above. Neither these pages nor any copy of them may be taken or transmitted into or distributed in any jurisdiction where the distribution of such material would be prohibited under the jurisdiction s applicable securities laws. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of national securities laws. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. 2

3 to edit Master title style Contents 1. Vietnam macroeconomic and real estate update 2. VNL fund performance from November 2012 to present 3. AGM Zurich, Switzerland - 10 November 2017

4 to edit Master Macroeconomics title style GDP growth rate accelerated to 7.5% in 3Q17 due to significant contributions from processing and manufacturing and exports. Overall, GDP and inflation are projected to reach 6.7% and 4.0%, respectively by end of GDP growth and inflation (%) 6.8% 6.0% 5.2% 5.4% 6.0% 1.8% Real GDP Growth 6.7% 0.6% 5.0% 6.2% Inflation F 6.7% 4.0% Export and import growth increased 19.8% and 23.1% y-o-y, respectively. Though trade deficit estimated at USD0.5bn, total import and export in 9M17 increased 21.6% y-o-y. Trade balance (USD bn) % (0.50) 19.8% (YTD) Trade Balance Exports Growth (YOY) Imports Growth (YOY) 26% 21% 16% 11% 6% 1% -4% -9% FDI disbursement inflows increased 13.4% y-o-y in 9M17, with majority of Vietnam s FDI earmarked for development of new factories and other production facilities. Projected to reach USD30bn for registered FDI and USD17bn for disbursed FDI by end of FDI Commitments and Disbursements (USD bn) Total registered FDI by countries Top 10 sources of FDI flowing to Vietnam, as of September 2017 (USD bn) F 2017 (YTD) FDI Commitments (USDbn) FDI Disbursements (USDbn) Source: General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam Customs, Vietnam Ministry of Cultural, Sport and Tourism. (As at 30 September 2017) 4

5 to edit Master Macroeconomics title style Stable currency FX helps the State bank of Vietnam (SBV) to continue to build up its FX reserves. Vietnam's FX reserves reached approx. USD42bn as at September Non-performing loans (NPLs) have reportedly been declining since Target to achieve below 3% by end of However taking a long time % Non-performing loans (NPLs) % 3% 2% 1% Below 3% F 0 0% F Gross Reserves (LHS) Months of Imports (RHS) Lending rate increased slightly during H and bank lending to the real estate sector is diminishing as a result of tighter liquidity. 60% 50% 40% Credit Growth Lending rate However, on 10 July 2017, SBV reduced the annual policy interest rates by 0.25% with the stated aim of achieving GDP growth and avoiding the significant increase of the lending rates. 30% 20% 18% - 19% Furthermore, SBV decreased by 0.5% p.a for the maximum VND shortterm lending rate in some sectors i.e agricultural, export, high-tech enterprises. 10% 0% 9.5% % F According to the updated policies of SBV, lending rate remained steady during Q Lending rate and credit growth are projected to reach 9.5% % and 18% - 19%, respectively by end of Source: General Statistics Office (GSO), State Bank of Vietnam, Vietnam Ministry of Planning & Investment (As at 30 September 2017) 5

6 to edit Master title style Macroeconomics indicators 2012 to 2017 Major Indicators Unit 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F GDP growth % CPI % Trade Deficit /Surplus USD bn (2.0) Exports USD bn Imports USD bn FDI Commitments USD bn FDI Disbursement USD bn Credit Growth % FX Reserves USD bn SBV Refinancing Rate Deposit Rate % Lending Rate % USD/VND (market rate) 20,880 21,190 21,580 22,660 22,800 22,800 23,000 Source : GSO, MPI, SBV Consensus forecast from ADB, WB, EIU, HSC, HSBC, JP Morgan, Citi, Govt 6

7 USD/sqm/month USD/NLA sqm/month to edit Master title style Real Estate Retail and Office sector in 9 months of 2017 RETAIL New supply in 9M17 (Hanoi + HCMC) : 88,289sqm with no new launches in previous 3 months. Rentals and occupancy rates: buildings in CBD locations increased slightly while buildings in non-cbd locations remained steady. Youth focused mass fashion continue to dominate the new tenant market with foreign brands continuing to expand in the major cities such as Zara. New supply in 4Q17 : 148,000sqm (HCMC + Hanoi). OFFICE New supply in 9M17 (Hanoi + HCMC) : 93,000sqm with additional 32,000sqm from Saigon Centre new Grade A Building developed by KeppleLand in HCMC. Lower rental and occupancy rate of office buildings in HCMC due to new supply continued to enter the market. Fixed supply in Hanoi allowed landlords to increase slightly rental price across all segments. New supply in 4Q17 : 94,000sqm (HCMC + Hanoi). New Supply (thousand sqm) Retail sector in HCMC and Hanoi (CBD and non-cbd) From 2015A to 2017F New Supply (thousand sqm) Office sector in HCMC and Hanoi (Grade A and B) From 2015A to 2017F $44 $ $29 $19 0 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017F 0 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017F New Retail Supply in HCMC and Hanoi HCMC Rents Hanoi Rents New Office Supply in HCMC and Hanoi HCMC Rents Hanoi Rents Source: CBRE Vietnam 1 Retail and Office rents are asking rent, exclusive of VAT and serviced charge. 7

8 to edit Master title style Real Estate Retail and Office sector in 9 months of 2017 CONDOMINIUMS New supply in 9M17 (HCMC + Hanoi) : 48,229 units with additional 16,082 units in 3Q17 (a reduction of 15% y-o-y). Key new launched projects in 3Q17: D Edge in District 2, HCMC of Capitaland (273 units), PentStudio Tay Ho in Hanoi of CTX Holdings (321 units). Prices (y-o-y) : a drop of 3% - 15%. Sale absorption : decreased approx. 3% 10%. New supply in 4Q17 : Approx. 24,771 units (HCMC + Hanoi). LANDED PROPERTY 1 New supply in 9M17 (HCMC + Hanoi) : 4,500 units with additional 1,500 units in 3Q17 (a drop of 30% - 40% y-o-y). Key new launched projects in 3Q17: SimCity in District 9, HCMC of Nhat Hoang Company (800 units), Louis City La Vong in Hanoi of La Vong Company (500 units). Prices (y-o-y) : an increase of 20% - 30%. Sale absorption : remains steady due to limited supply. New supply in 4Q17 : Approx. 1,000 units (HCMC + Hanoi). Condominiums : Even with the decreases in condominium launches in 3Q17, it is likely new additional supply is coming online over the next 12 months, particularly high-end and luxury condo segments. Oversupply in some areas of the condominium sector are beginning to impact sales rates in the market, an imbalance will increase gradually in the coming years, in particular in the secondary market. Landed Property : On the other hand, limited supply therefore creates a sustainable market for the landed property segment, in terms of liquidity and saleability. Landed property sector has continued to gain traction. Particularly, projects in gated communities or in fast developing residential areas that are non- CBD-locations has received more attention from buyers. New supply of condominium and landed property section both in HCMC and Hanoi from 2013 to ,500 73,000 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017F Landed Property Condominium (Units) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-8

9 to edit Master title style GDP : Growth forecast 6.7% by end of INFLATION : CPI forecast 4.0% by end of LIQUIDITY : Credit growth is managed closely by the SBV and it is projected to reach 18% - 19% by end of Vietnamese developers finding it more difficult to borrow for real estate investment. INTEREST RATES : The lending rate remains stable, forecast 10.5% by end of CURRENCY FX : The USD/VND exchange rate remains stable. NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPL s) : Taking longer than expected to resolve. VNL s remaining stake in the My Gia Project divested : resulted in net cash proceeds of a further USD5.9 million. FDI DISBURSEMENTS : Foreign investment increasing, expect to reach USD17bn by year end. OVERALL CONFIDENCE : Vietnam s economy remains sound. However general consensus is that the real estate market, in particular condominium mid-high sector is over-supplied in some locations and this imbalance may impact prices and inventory movement during the coming quarters. Vina Square Project REGIONAL STABILITY: Regional affairs remain stable. North Korea situation is being monitored. APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) Conference 2017 : Danang, Vietnam is host to the APEC CEO SUMMIT where world leaders are meeting in Danang on Friday 10 November VNL s remaining stake in the Vina Square Project divested : resulted in net cash proceeds of a USD41.2 million. 9

10 to edit Portfolio Master Breakdown title style Hospitality 4% NAV by sector NAV % by region 100% Residential 19% Mixed Use 56% 80% 60% 83% Township 21% 40% 20% 17% 0% 0% North Central South Operating 3% NAV by status Land 2% Development 14% Planning 81% Key investments Project Location Type Status NAV (USDm) % Portfolio NAV Pavilion Square South Mixed Use Obtaining final phase of title documentation % Aqua City South Township Land split & restructure underway % Green Park Estate South Mixed Use Factory relocation & clearance proceeding/obtaining updated approvals % Trinity Garden South Residential Infrastructure underway % Capital Square Central Mixed Use Obtaining revised master plan % Total % Note: unaudited NAV as at 30 Sep

11 to edit Master title style Performance Nov 2012 to 6 Nov 2017 Share price increased from USD41 cents (Nov 2012) to USD86 cents Trading discount narrowed from 63.3% (Nov 2012) to 9.7% NAV per share decreased 6% to 95 cents from 101 cents (adjusted NAV per share November 2012). Distribution of USD241.9m since November 2012 (EGM) Per share data (USD) 1.10 Share price, NAV per share and Distribution Distribution value (USDm) Distribution Value Share Price NAV per share Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Note: Share price and NAV per share take into consideration the capital return in June

12 to edit Master VinaLandtitle Overview style Fund summary NAV: USD227.3m 30-Sep-17 NAV per share: USD Sep-17 NAV pro-forma: USD184.4m 30-Sep-17 NAV per share pro-forma USD Sep-17 Share price: USD Nov-17 Discount *: -9.7% 6-Nov-17 Pro-forma discount *: -12.6% 6-Nov-17 Market cap: USD160.1m 6-Nov-17 Total shares outstanding: 187,284,888 6-Nov-17 Debt - project level (bank) None 6-Nov-17 Fund Cash balance: (after future commitments) USD50m 6-Nov-17 Current assets: 11 6-Nov-17 Disposals: 35 6-Nov-17 * Discount rate is calculated by comparing current share price with NAV per share at 30 Sep 17 12

13 Distributions Distributions: EGM November 2012 to November 2016 (EGM) November 2016 (EGM ) to 6 November 2017 Total: USD100.9m Total: USD141.0m - USD65.8m via share buy back - USD58.0m via share buy average price of 71 cents - USD35.1m via capital return June USD40.0m via tender June offer price of 79 cents (accretive effect on NAV per share 3 cents) - USD43.0m via tender October offer price 83 cents (accretive effect on NAV per share 3 cents, and will be reflected in VNL NAV as at 31 December

14 2017 Disposals May 2017 NAV at exit: USD34.1m Net proceeds to VNL: USD41.0m Net proceeds vs. NAV: 20.2% Net proceeds vs EGM NAV: 48.1% Times Square Hanoi project Hanoi Vina Square project Sep 2017 NAV at exit: USD41.1m Net proceeds to VNL: USD41.2m Net proceeds vs. NAV: 0.3% Net proceeds vs EGM NAV: 13.5% Exit date: Nov 2017 Phu Hoi Exit NAV at exit: USD15.5m Net proceeds to VNL: USD15.8m Net proceeds vs. NAV: 2% Net proceeds vs. EGM NAV: 3.3% Jan 2017 NAV at exit: USD13.2m Project BD Net proceeds to VNL: USD10.9m Net proceeds vs. NAV: -17.4% Net proceeds vs EGM NAV: -27.2% Dai Phuoc Apr 2017 Lotus project NAV at exit: USD43.9m Net proceeds to VNL: USD48.8m Net proceeds vs. NAV: 11.2% Net proceeds vs EGM NAV: 21.8% Nha Trang Ho Chi Minh Aug 2017 NAV at exit: USD14.9m Net proceeds to VNL: USD16.3m Net proceeds vs. NAV: 10.0% Net proceeds vs. EGM NAV: -1.5% My Gia project Future disposals Pipeline Disposals Currently working on further disposals expected to close during Q and

15 Disposals 2015 to November 2017 Completed 17 project disposals since 2015, at an average premium of 5.8% compared to the NAV at time of disposal. NAV at exit Net proceeds to VNL Cumulative net proceeds Shareholder Distribution Saigon Quy Nhon Vung Bau Phu Quoc Hoi An South Nam Phat Danang Marina Century Danang Golf HBT Court Pham Hung Road Danang Resort 104 Ceana 121 Binh Duong Dai Phuoc Lotus My Gia - Parcel 3-7A Times Square Hanoi My Gia - Vinasquare the remaining Phu Hoi Mar-15 Mar-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 May-16 May-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Note: Cumulative net proceeds calculated since Nov 2012 EGM. 15

16 Last 12-month Performance DISTRIBUTIONS PRICE & NAV per share TRADING DISCOUNT DEBT 40% by Share price: USD % USD59m November 2016 November 2017 NAV/share: USD0.89 November % by 6 November 2017 (USD141m) Share price:usd0.86 NAV/share: USD0.95 (Proforma NAV/share: USD0.98) Current: 9.7% Proforma: 12.6% No Debt 16

17 Review of strategy and key terms adopted at 2016 EGM Term Three years, plus up to one year to delist and place in liquidation Commencement 22 November 2016 Objectives Shareholder distributions Divest all remaining investments in an orderly manner so as to achieve the highest possible sales values and return available proceeds to shareholders. Continue with development of selected projects currently under development to retain value No new investments Following the distribution of the majority of proceeds, ultimately delist the Company Distributions to shareholders will be via a range of methods at the discretion of the Board and will predominantly include; 1. On market Share Buybacks and Tender offers at a discount to NAV whilst trading discount is equal to, or greater than 15% 2. [Mandatory redemptions were not approved by shareholders at the 2016 EGM] 3. In addition to the above, if considered appropriate, the Board may also consider making distributions by way of returns of capital. 4. When the NAV has reduced to approximately USD100m, the Board will consult with shareholders to consider the most appropriate method of returning available proceeds to shareholders. Distributions to shareholders will take place throughout the new term based on the amount of surplus cash available and in all cases, the appropriate method of returning distributable proceeds to shareholders will remain at the discretion of the Board. 17

18 AIM Rule 15 AIM Rule 15 Fundamental change of business - summary for information purposes only In accordance with the AIM Rules, when VNL disposes of an asset which, when aggregated with any other disposals over the previous 12 months exceeds 75% in the class tests, then it is deemed to have undertaken a fundamental change of business. At the point at which the Company is deemed to have undertaken a fundamental change of business, the Company will have 12 months to dispose of its remaining assets and distribute the proceeds to shareholders before shares in the Company are suspended from trading. In due course, the Board will put certain resolutions to shareholders to seek approval for the delisting [and voluntary liquidation] of the Company. To clarify, at this time, VNL has not closed sufficient asset disposals to trigger the fundamental change of business and this note serves as general information only. 18

19 2017 AGM 2017 Annual General Meeting (AGM) Friday, 10 November 2017, Zurich, Switzerland, at 11:30 a.m. (local time). The VNL Board is recommending that shareholders vote in support of all 4 ordinary resolutions that will be put to shareholders for their approval at the AGM. Resolution 1 - Ordinary Resolution To receive and adopt the financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2017, with the reports of the directors and auditors thereon. Resolution 2 - Ordinary Resolution To re-appoint Mr Charles Isaac as a director of the Company. Resolution 3 - Ordinary Resolution To re-appoint Mr Kien Trong Tran as a Director of the Company. Resolution 4 - Ordinary Resolution To re-appoint PricewaterhouseCoopers (Hong Kong) as independent auditor to the Company and to authorise the Directors to determine their remuneration. 19

20 Contact details VinaCapital 17 th Floor, Sun Wah Tower 115 Nguyen Hue Street District 1 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam +84 (028) David Blackhall - Managing Director david.blackhall@vinacapital.com Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Danang Singapore 20