Wednesday, October 07 th 2015

Transcription

1 MARKET COMMENTARY Market snapshot Both indexes marginally corrected. Liquidity settled high. Erratic net-bought from the Foreign in HOSE. VCBS commentary Market got off strong today following the excitement in two opening sessions of the week. However, upbeat rhythm did not last long. In the afternoon session, selling heated up and pushed indexes end up in negative zone. Consequently, the gaining momentum dwindled. Market breadth accordingly shrank when decliners outpaced advancers. From sector s perspective, Oil & Gas was the one and only stood out to take the leading role with the constructive information from the crude oil price. In detail, the WTI NY oil price delivered in November at the end of 10/06 session robust $2.27, equivalent to 4.9% up to $48.53 per barrel. Hence, the shot up of Oil & Gas was just enough to save market from plummeting when other sectors produced uninspiring result. Therein, industries giants such as HCM, FPT, GMD, HPG, DRC, CSM, HVG, painted with red ink at the close. The State Securities Commission (SSC) held Conference to introduce the third draft circular to replace an older one on the guidelines of securities trading to collect opinions from market participants. Therein, some notable points were that: (1) Investors are allowed to buy and sell simultaneously in a day on different accounts basis. (2) Legislative accepted on investors selling their stock, which are on their way to the account when payment has not been completed. (3) Allowed day trading, buy first and sell later and vice versa in reciprocal trading day. Notably, the solution for risk management in day trading drew much attention. Therein, security firm will be given a quota and each client shall have their own quota in trading volume of quantity buy or sell. Besides, conditions of security firms, which are eligible to day trading, loosen. However, as day trading is a complex activity and underlies many risks exclusively in frontier market (including Vietnam) with inefficiency of the market Market Highlights HSX HNX Index /- (%) -0.30% -0.91% Volume (share) 146,031,829 51,573,456 Value (VNDmln) 2, Advancers Decliners Unchanged Foreign Investment HSX HNX Buy (VND bln) Sell (VND bln) Net position (VND bln) KLGD (Vol.) VNIndex :00 10:00 11:00 13:28 14: KLGD (Vol.) :00 10:00 11:00 13:30 14:45 Tran Minh Hoang (ext. 112) tmhoang@vcbs.com.vn Dinh Thi Huyen Trang (ext. 117) dthtrang@vcbs.com.vn 0 HNX Index 1000 Le Thu Ha (ext. 112) ltha_ho@vcbs.com.vn Page Research Department VCBS

2 and least transparent. Therefore, it is obliged that the legal framework is fully formed with tight article. In addition, it shall apply to stock companies with strong financial resources and strict risk management system. To conclude, we consider this movement as a positive approach so as to bring Vietnam s market closer to international standard. Though it will likely to take time until the legal framework serves well this activity. On the international front, in a report ahead of the International Monetary Fund-World bank annual meeting this week, the IMF said that China s slowdown and sharply lower commodity prices will push global economic growth this year to its lowest level since the 2009 recession. And that emerging market economies will likely grow by just 4%, which would mark the fifth-consecutive annual deceleration in growth. The international concerns, along with recent disappointing U.S. data on employment and manufacturing activity, have raised sentiment that FED will push its timeline for a monetary policy tightening further back. At the same time, IMF forecasts Vietnam s growth will strengthen to 6.5% and 6.4% in 2015 and 2016 respectively, which was pretty higher than the previous forecast (6% in 2015 and 5.8% in 2016). It may refer that from worldwide perspective, Vietnam is expected to a high point of growth and accordingly, and may attract resource well. On the contrary to the constructive news, both indexes today logged into correction phase. Hence, we assess that this pulling back session was due to technical factor. Additionally, as liquidity settling high and dramatic net-bought from the foreign in HOSE, we remain positive view on the upward trend of the market ahead of the start of earning seasons. We recommend that investors should take full use of correction session to disburse partially on stocks with constructive news and attracting resources well Page 2

3 NEWS IN REVIEW (Source: Newspaper) Cement consumption up year-on-yea The total consumption of cement till September 2015 rose 3 per cent against the same period of last year to million tones, according to the Ministry of Construction. The ministry's Building Material Department said that of these, million tones of cement were sold on the domestic market, a year-on-year surge of 8 per cent while the export volume of cement reached million tones, a 12 per cent lower than the same period of last year. However, total consumption of cement in September was down 9 per cent to 5.37 million tones, including 4.27 million tones for the domestic market, 11 per cent lower than last month, chinhphu.vn reported. Experts in building materials said the reduction in total consumption volume of cement in September was due to the impact of the rains and the "ghost month" when people often avoid starting construction projects.they expect cement consumption on the domestic market to be better by the year-end when the construction season begins. However, the cement industry would find it difficult to export cement by the yearend because some cement exporters in the region would increase their volumes to between 5 and 6 million tonnes. Plans IPO Aviation Airport Corporation (ACV): Auction publicity 77.8 million shares On 6/10, the Prime Minister issued a decision approving the equalization plan of the parent company - Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV). Accordingly, the ACV will equitize with expected charter capital of billion. Therein, the state will hold 75% equity. The remaining consists of million shares, representing 20% of charter capital offered to strategic investors; public auction for 77.8 million shares, equivalent to 3.47% and the rest sold at preferential prices for individual employees and trade union organizations. With its monopoly position to exploit the airport as well as the financial situation satisfactory, ACV's IPO will likely be one of the most attractive IPOs in In 2 years , the parent company reached 7,000 ACV billion in revenue and over 3,000 billion in profit before tax. Positive performance resulted from the ACV greatly benefit from exchange rate differences. The first half of 2015, reaching nearly 5,200 ACV billion in revenue and 685 billion profit before tax. Total assets and equity at respectively and 20,250 billion Page 3

4 TECHINICAL VIEW VN Index VN Index and HNX Index experienced a correction phase on account of technical factor. Expectation of an upward trend is in the short-term still remain. Investors may consider disbursing on target tickers in correction phase like today s session. VN Index formed a red solid candle and kept track of upper Bollinger Band. High liquidity referred that the upward trend in the short-term has yet to end. Parabolic SAR showed buying signal. The support and resistance level would be 570 and 600. HNX Index HNX Index formed a red solid candle and halted the gaining momentum of the three previous green candles. Bollinger Band broadening and high liquidity indicated that the upbeat rhythm still endured. Parabolic SAR showed buying signal. The closest support and resistance level would be 78 and Page 4

5 DISCLAIMER This report is designed to provide updated information on the fixed-income, including bonds, interest rates, some other related. The VCBS analysts exert their best efforts to obtain the most accurate and timely information available from various sources, including information pertaining to market prices, yields and rates. All information stated in the report has been collected and assessed as carefully as possible. It must be stressed that all opinions, judgments, estimations and projections in this report represent independent views of the analyst at the date of publication. Therefore, this report should be best considered a reference and indicative only. It is not an offer or advice to buy or sell or any actions related to any assets, VCBS and/or Departments of VCBS as well as any affiliate of VCBS or affiliate that VCBS belongs to or is related to (thereafter, VCBS), provide no warranty or undertaking of any kind in respect to the information and materials found on, or linked to the report and no obligation to update the information after the report was released. VCBS does not bear any responsibility for the accuracy of the material posted or the information contained therein, or for any consequences arising from its use, and does not invite or accept reliance being placed on any materials or information so provided. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed for any purpose without the written permission of an authorized representative of VCBS. Please cite sources when quoting. Copyright 2012 Vietcombank Securities Company. All rights reserved. VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES COMPANY 12 th and 17 th floor, Vietcombank Tower 198 Tran QuangKhai Street, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel: Fax: Ha Noi Headquarter Ho Chi Minh Branch Da Nang Branch Can Tho Branch Vung Tau Branch Phu My Hung Transaction Unit Giang Vo Transaction Unit An Giang Representative Office Dong Nai Representative Office : Floor 12th&17th, Vietcombank Tower, 198 Tran QuangKhai Street, HoanKiem District, Ha Noi Tel: (84-4) /19/20 vcbs@vcbs,com,vn : Floor 1 st and 7 th, Green Star Building, 70 Pham Ngoc Thach Street, Ward 6, District No, 3, Ho Chi Minh City Tel: (84-8) Floor 6th, Khanh Nguyen Building, 63 Pham Ngoc Thach Street, Ward 6, District No, 3, Ho Chi Minh City Tel: (84-8) /75/76; ext: : Floor 2, 10 HaiPhong Street, HaiChau District, Da Nang City Tel: (84-511) ext: 12/13 : Floor 1st, Post Office Building, 2 HoaBinh Avenue, NinhKieu District, Can Tho City Tel: (84-710) : Floor 1st, 27 Le Loi Street, Vung Tau City, Ba Ria - Vung Tau Province Tel: (84-64) /75/76/77/78 : Lawrence Sting Building, 801 Nguyen Luong Bang Street, Phu My Hung Urban Zone, District No, 7, Ho Chi minh City Tel: (84-8) : Floor 1 st, Building C4 Giang Vo, Giang Vo Ward, Ba Dinh District, Hanoi Tel: (84-4) : Floor 6th, Nguyen Hue Building, 9/9 Tran Hung Dao Street, My Xuyen Ward, Long Xuyen City, An Giang Province Tel: (84-76) : F240-F241 Vo ThiSau Street, 7th Block, Thong Nhat Ward, Bien Hoa City, Dong Nai Province Tel: (84-61) Page 5