Large-cap stocks diverge

Transcription

1 Millions XIN CHAO VIETNAM 26-Sep-18 Market Performance 26-Sep 1M (%) 3M (%) VN 1, % 2.7% Turnover 5,191 (VNDbn) Foreign Net Buy 30 (VNDbn) Source: Bloomberg-Finpro 1,400 1,200 1, /17 12/17 03/18 06/18 09/18 Fixed-Income and Commodity 1Y G-bond yield 3Y G-bond yield 10Y G-bond yield WTI ($/bbl) Gold ($/oz) 26-Sep 1M 3M 4.012% 4.175% 2.288% 4.162% 4.525% 3.068% 5.037% 5.200% 4.850% ,199 1,192 1,258 Source: Bloomberg Corp.Earnings Forecast by KISVN Earning Growth (%) 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E 25.6% 26.4% 20.8% 18.7% PER (x) Mr. Phat Pham (+84 28) Ext: 1468 Phat.pt@kisvn.vn Mr. Hieu Tran (+84 28) Ext: 1464 Hieu.ttm@kisvn.vn VN 1Y Movement Large-cap stocks diverge Vietnam stock market continued to correct as bluechips diverged today. The VN- lost 0.11% to closed at 1,009 pts. Liquidity increased to 219 million order-matching shares or VND4,551bn in value. Market breadth was positive with 176 advancers vs 125 decliners. The VNMid- and VNSmall- gained 0.61% and 0.99% while the VN30- lost 0.07%. Among the constituents of the VN30-, BMP, DHG, DPM, HSG, REE and VRE increased more than 1%, helping the indices narrow the loss. In addition, penny stocks outperformed the broad market namely HAG, HNG, HVG and HQC. In contrast, Oil and Gas decreased as GAS, PVD and PVS. Banking stocks diverged as VCB, CTG, BID, HDB and ACB closed in red while TCB, VPB, STB and MBB rose up. Foreign investors bought a net value of VND30bn on HSX. They bought heavily VRE, HPG and MSN with a net value of VND32.4bn, VND29.7bn and VND14.6bn respectively. On the sell side, SBT, VNM and TDH were on the top of the list. Market commentary: Market sentiment has become cautious and selling pressure in the afternoon session. However, the short-term uptrend is still intact as the VN- closes above 1,000 threshold. Traders should hold long position and focus on leading stocks. VN Trading Map HPG VJC PVS CTG ASM VCB VRE MBB TCB HBC VPB IDI ACBSSI HSG DXG PLX MWG SHB STB PVDHDB VGC MSN REE FLC VNDVNM GEX SBT PDR 0-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Note: Vertical axis traded value (VND billion), horizontal axis price change Page 1

2 Technical View VN- Support 1: Resistance 1: 1,030-1,040 Support 2: Resistance 2: 1,060-1,080 Short-term Technical View (20 days) - VN- The VN- paused in two nearest sessions with Spinning Top, Shooting Star candlestick formation. Trading volume maintained above 10 day moving average reflecting dominant selling positions. Therefore, we can expect strong fluctuation in sessions ahead. The MA(5), MA(10) (1,000-1,005 pts area) will support for price pullback. On the short-term basis (20 days), the main trend is still up as price firmly held within upward channel. Technical indicators still gave bullish signal as the RSI is heading up after crossing above the MA(10). Meanwhile, the MACD crossed above the Signal line. Short-term price target for the benchmark is around 1,024 pts or the MA(200). On the medium-term, the VN- still moved sideway which we forecast the bearish trend is not complete yet as the recovery from 885 low is of C wave leg of Flat pattern (marked A-B-C). Wave C leg would extend to 1,024-1,040 pts. Action The VN- s major trend is bullish. We recommend trader to increase stock weight at price pullback, especially the stocks that is having strong upward momentum and active trading money. 26/09/2018 Page 2

3 Market Statistics HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics VN- 1, % Gainers 176 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 261,506 29, % Losers 125 Trading Val. (VNDbn) 5, % Unchanged 64 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Impact Ticker Price Change Impact Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn TCB 28, VCB 63, HPG 41, VRE 40, GAS 117, VJC 152, PPC 19,750 1, VIC 99, CTG 27, DPM 19,500 1, PLX 72,000-1, ASM 13, HT1 15, BVH 95,000-2, VRE 40, Top 5 Advancing Industry Top 5 Declining Industry Industry Change Impact Industry Change Impact % Point % Point Health Care 1.1% 0.11 Energy -1.2% Materials 0.6% 0.27 Utilities -0.4% Information Technology 0.4% 0.04 Consumer Staples -0.2% Other 0.4% 0.01 Consumer Discretionary -0.2% Industrials 0.3% 0.24 Real Estate -0.2% HA NOI STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics HNX % Gainers 113 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 54,338-4, % Losers 68 Trading Val. (VNDbn) % Unchanged 192 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Impact Ticker Price Change Impact Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn VGC 19, PVS 23, PVS 23, TNG 18,700 1, ACB 33, ACB 33, NVB 8, DBC 28, SHB 8, TV2 135,900 5, NTP 50,000-1, VGC 19, DGC 43,500 1, PTI 18, VCG 19, Top 5 Advancing Industry Industry Change Top 5 Declining Industry Impact Industry Change Impact % Point % Point Other 36.3% 0.01 Utilities -0.3% 0.00 Consumer Staples 11.8% Financials -0.1% Real Estate 8.4% 0.04 Industrials 5.7% 0.14 Consumer Discretionary 5.5% /09/2018 Page 3

4 Foreign Activities HOSE HNX Top 5 Active by Foreigners (Buy) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (Buy) Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VRE 40, SHB 8, HPG 41, SHS 16, MSN 93, CEO 14, GAS 117, CDN 16, BMP 63, DGC 43, Top 5 Active by Foreigners (Sell) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (Sell) Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn SBT 21, VGC 19, VNM 136, PVB 23, TDH 12, PVS 23, HDB 38, MSC 13, VCB 63, WCS 126, (VNDbn) Sell Buy Net buy Foreign activities 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 26/09/2018 Page 4

5 Derivatives Short-term Technical View VN30- Support 1: 970 Resistance 1: 990 Support 2: 940 Resistance 2: 1,010 Trend Analysis: The VN30- paused for second session in row with Doji candlestick formation. Technical outlook is unchanged as the major trend is up and the bull is not complete yet. As the VN30- moved sideways in recent sessions, we expect strong fluctuation in sessions ahead with strong support around pts. Short-term price target for the indice is around 990-1,000 pts. Trading Strategy: -Long VN30F1810 at price pullback with entry around pts. Price target 990 pts. Stop-loss as price breaks decisively below 968 pts. 26/09/2018 Page 5

6 FUTURE CONTRACTS Close Price +/- +/- % Trading Volume Open Interest Expire Date Days to Expires Unit: Points Points % shares/contracts contracts days VN % 53,103,760 VN30F % 64,336 14,138 18/10/ VN30F % /11/ VN30F % /12/ VN30F % /03/ VND Future Price Curves / / / / / /2019 Current 1M 1W VND Historical Price / / / / / /2018 Quote Name Industry Weight VN30 INDEX MEMBERS Current Price Market Cap PER PBR 3M. VOL Foreign Owned Unit: % VND VND bn. x x '000 shares % VND VND BMP Binh Minh Plastics JSC Industrials 0.5% 63,800 5, % 98,800 51,200 CII Ho Chi Minh City Industrials 0.9% 26,550 6,497 #N/A % 39,500 24,200 Infrastructure Investment JSC N/A CTD Coteccons Construction JSC Industrials 1.3% 166,000 12, % 244, ,400 52W High 52W Low CTG Vietnam Joint Stock Financials 1.8% 27, , ,762 30% 38,250 18,300 Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade DHG DHG Pharmaceutical JSC Health Care 0.8% 99,000 12, % 118,900 83,700 DPM Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Materials 0.5% 19,500 7, % 26,600 16,100 Chemicals JSC FPT FPT Corp Information 4.0% 46,050 28, % 56,957 38,500 Technology GAS PetroVietnam Gas JSC Utilities 2.0% 117, , % 136,400 66,900 GMD Gemadept Corp Industrials 0.8% 27,500 8, % 39,473 23,000 HPG Hoa Phat Group JSC Materials 9.1% 41,000 87, ,428 39% 48,429 24,857 HSG Hoa Sen Group Materials 0.6% 12,800 4, ,414 20% 26,636 9,318 KDC KIDO Group Corp Consumer Staples MBB Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank MSN Masan Group Corp Consumer Staples MWG NVL Mobile World Investment Corp No Va Land Investment Group Corp 0.6% 28,550 5,872 #N/A N/A % 45,800 28,350 Financials 4.8% 23,000 49, ,740 20% 31,471 17, % 93,500 98, % 118,000 53,400 Consumer 4.6% 125,000 40, % 138,600 98,000 Discretionary Real Estate 3.6% 64,800 58, % 78,800 45,038 26/09/2018 Page 6

7 PLX Vietnam National Petroleum Energy 1.5% 72,000 83, % 95,500 51,800 Group PNJ Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC Consumer 2.0% 102,500 16, % 138,733 68,000 Discretionary REE Refrigeration Electrical Industrials 1.1% 37,200 11, % 44,750 29,150 Engineering Corp ROS FLC Faros Construction JSC Industrials 1.0% 40,500 22, ,013 2% 187,500 37,600 SAB SBT Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC Consumer Staples Consumer Staples 3.7% 218, , % 347, , % 21,500 10, ,798 9% 27,500 13,300 SSI Saigon Securities Inc Financials 1.7% 33,000 16, ,842 57% 44,400 21,900 STB Saigon Thuong Tin Financials 3.8% 12,700 22, ,396 10% 17,300 9,670 Commercial JSB VCB Bank for Foreign Trade of Financials 4.0% 63, , ,031 21% 76,500 37,100 Vietnam JSC VIC Vingroup JSC Real Estate 8.7% 99, , ,219 8% 113,058 40,331 VJC Vietjet Aviation JSC Industrials 7.2% 152,200 82, % 191,167 86,667 VNM Vietnam Dairy Products JSC Consumer Staples 8.9% 136, , % 179, ,000 VPB Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank Financials 6.6% 26,000 63, ,488 23% 40,848 21,008 VRE Vincom Retail JSC Real Estate 6.1% 40,750 77, ,327, % 61,500 35,000 26/09/2018 Page 7

8 Event Calendar Ex-right date Ticker Exchange Right 27/09/2018 TRS Upcom ESOP shares buy-back 27/09/2018 SEA Upcom 2018 AGM 27/09/2018 HTV HSX 2017 cash dividend payment (VND1.200/share) 27/09/2018 ST8 HSX 2018 cash dividend payment (VND1.500/share) 27/09/2018 IKH Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND450/share) 27/09/2018 MPC Upcom Additional shares listing 27/09/2018 DAG HSX 2017 cash dividend payment (VND500/share), bonus stock (ratio 20:1) 27/09/2018 KPF HSX Chi cổ tức năm 2016, 2017 (VND1.000/share) 28/09/2018 HBW Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND520/share) 28/09/2018 DBH Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND270/share) 28/09/2018 NBP HNX Cash dividend payment (VND1.020/share) 28/09/2018 UPC Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND1.200/share) 26/09/2018 Page 8

9 Contacts: HCM City Head Office Level 3, Maritime Bank Tower Nguyen Cong Tru St., District 1, HCM City Tel: (+84 28) Fax: (+84 28) Hanoi Branch Level 6, CTM Tower 299 Cau Giay, Cau Giay District, Hanoi Tel: (+84 24) Fax: (+84 24) Institutional Sales Ms. Uyen Lam Head of Institutional Sales (+84 28) (x1444) 26/09/2018 Page 9

10 Disclaimer This report has been issued by the KIS VN Securities Corporation ( KIS ) with the instructional contributions of KIS VN Securities Corporation whose employees are specified in the publication. This report is for information of its institutional and professional customers. This report is and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Investors are advised make their own financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their particular circumstances such as their financial situation, investment objectives and other considerations. In preparing this report, we have relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public and other sources which we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. KIS makes no express or implied guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed are current opinions of the authors as of the original publication date appearing on this report only and the information, including the opinions contained herein, and are subject to change without notice. KIS and its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, companies mentioned herein. Further, KIS and its affiliates, and/or their officers, directors and employees involved in the preparation or issuance of this report may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities, or derivatives (including options) thereof, of companies mentioned herein, or related securities or derivatives in a manner that may be consistent or inconsistent with this report and opinions expressed therein. As a result, investors should be aware that KIS and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect this report. This report shall not be copied, reproduced, distributed (in whole or in part) or disclosed by recipients to any other person without the express permission of KIS in writing. 26/09/2018 Page 10