Approaching the 900 threshold

Transcription

1 Millions XIN CHAO VIETNAM 09-Jan-19 Market Performance 9-Jan 1M (%) 3M (%) VN % -10.0% Turnover 3,000 (VNDbn) Foreign Net Buy 90 (VNDbn) Source: Bloomberg-Finpro 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, VN 1Y Movement /18 04/18 07/18 10/18 01/ Approaching the 900 threshold Vietnam stock market surged thanks to buying force on Banking and Real Estate stocks. The VN- gained 1.08% to close at 897 pts while trading volume increased 121 million order-matching shares or VND2,141bn in value. The market breadth was positive with 178 advancers vs 98 decliners on HSX. The VN30- rose 1.19% with 26 constituents of the VN30 closed in green and BMP, CII, HPG, HSG and REE soaring more than 2%. Banking and Real Estate tickers outperformed the broad market as CTG surged 2.5%, VCB (+1.5%), BID (+3.1%), TCB (+2.8%), MBB (+2.7%), NVL (+1.9%) and VRE (+5%). In addition, Oil and Gas stocks saw active trading money namely GAS, PVD and PVS. Foreign investors reversed to buy a net of VND90bn on HSX. They purchased heavily VRE, VNM and CTD with net values of VND40bn, VND35bn and VND31bn respectively. On the sell side, NVL, CTG and VJC were sold the most. Market commentary: The bullish was dominant and the VN- approached the 900 threshold today. However, the downside risk remains high, so traders should be cautious and stay on the sidelines. Fixed-Income and Commodity 9-Jan 1M 3M 1Y G-bond yield 3.750% 4.120% 4.035% 3Y G-bond yield 4.088% 4.395% 4.230% 10Y G-bond yield 5.100% 5.155% 5.013% WTI ($/bbl) Gold ($/oz) 1,281 1,248 1,190 Source: Bloomberg VN Trading Map ROS MBB CTG Mr. Phat Pham (+84 28) Ext: 1468 phat.pt@kisvn.vn Mr. Hieu Tran Truong Manh (+84 28) Ext: 1464 hieu.ttm@kisvn.vn DLG VNMPVS TCB VJC VIC VCB ACB NVL VRE HPG VCG KBC SSI GAS FLC VPB HDB MWG PVDBID CTI ASM CTD STB MSNGEX SHB FTM DXG VGCSBT PLX QCG AAA HSG HBC VND KDHPNJ FPT CEO TPB PDR CII NT2 0-12% -7% -2% 3% 8% Note: Vertical axis traded value (VND billion), horizontal axis price change Page 1

2 Technical View VN- Support 1: Resistance 1: Support 2: Resistance 2: Short-term Technical View (20 days) - VN- The VN- resumed its recovery phase today with strong bullish candlestick. Trading volume increased with 121mn untis roughtly at 10- day moving average. On the short-term basis (20 days), after consolidating prior session, the stock benchmark resumed its uptrend started from 860 thresholds. Trading volume increases notably implying positive cash flow. The RSI indicator continues moving upward after slightly crossing above the MA (10). In short, nothing changes as short-term bullish signal is still maintained. However, to have a solid rally, trading volume needs to increase notably and stably. Near-term resistance lies around pts. Next resistance zone lies around pts. On the medium-term (3 month), the VN- is moving sideway down since May We project strong support is to be at 800 thresholds at medium degree while resistance lied around 925 pts. Action The indice resumes its short-term bullish rally. Nevertheless, trader should follow closely the trading money in the coming session. Recommended stock ratio limited to around 25-30%. 09/01/2019 Page 2

3 Market Statistic HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics VN % Gainers 178 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 160,508 47, % Losers 98 Trading Val. (VNDbn) 3, % Unchanged 99 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn BID 33,000 1, YEG 232,600-17, ROS 36, VRE 29,050 1, HNG 14, MBB 19, VNM 131,900 1, FRT 70,300-1, CTG 18, GAS 89,900 1, KBC 13, VNM 131, VCB 55, VND 16, TCB 25, Top 5 Advancing Industry Industry Change Top 5 Declining Industry Industry Change % Point % Point Industrials 3.6% 0.29 Other -0.3% 0.00 Financials 1.9% 4.31 Materials 1.7% 0.56 Utilities 1.7% 1.08 Discretionary 1.3% 0.25 HA NOI STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics HNX % Gainers 94 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 27,027 3, % Losers 54 Trading Val. (VNDbn) % Unchanged 221 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn ACB 29, VCS 64,500-1, PVS 18, SHB 7, NTP 41,000-1, ACB 29, PVS 18, S99 7, VCG 22, CEO 13, VGC 17, SHB 7, DBC 22, HUT 3, VGC 17, Top 5 Advancing Industry Industry Change Top 5 Declining Industry Industry Change % Point % Point Other % 0.00 Utilities 93.1% Discretionary 51.1% 0.01 Staples 48.0% 0.03 Information Technology 19.8% /01/2019 Page 3

4 Foreign activities HOSE HNX Top 5 Foreign Net Buy Top 5 Foreign Net Buy Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VRE 29, PVS 18, VNM 131, CEO 13, CTD 160, VCS 64, TPB 20, TNG 16, VCB 55, DNP 13, Top 5 Foreign Net Sell Top 5 Foreign Net Sell Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn NVL 58, VGC 17, CTG 18, SRA 28, VJC 115, SHS 12, VIC 101, WCS 123, SSI 25, PMC 56, /01/2019 Page 4

5 Derivatives Short-term Technical View VN30F1M contract Support 1: 830 Resistance 1: 847 Support 2: 800 Resistance 2: 862 Trend Analysis: The January 2019 contract resumed the rally after consolidating shortly. Price closed slightly above the MA (9) and had tendency to extend the gain with Gap-Up formation. We expect the rally will continue with near-term resistance lying pts while significant resistance lies 864 pts. Trading Strategy: Trader should prioritize Long positon as the indice is in short-term recovery. - Long VN30F1901 with entry around pts. Price target 854 pts. Stoploss at /01/2019 Page 5

6 FUTURE CONTRACTS Close Price +/- +/- % Trading Volume Open Interest Expiration Date Days to Expiration Unit: Points Points % shares/contracts contracts days VN % 27,923,540 VN30F % 153,409 18,894 17/01/ VN30F % /02/ VN30F % /03/ VN30F % /06/ VND Future Price Curves VND Historical / / / / / /2019 Current 1M 1W / / /2018 Historical Quote Name Industry Weight VN30 INDEX MEMBERS Current Price Market Cap PER PBR 3M. VOL Unit: % VND VND bn. x x '000 shares Foreign Owned 52W High 52W Low % VND VND BMP Binh Minh Plastics JSC Industrials 0.3% 50,100 4, % 95,900 48,150 CII Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment JSC Industrials 0.9% 25,100 6, % 39,500 22,600 CTD Coteccons Construction JSC Industrials 1.3% 160,000 12, % 227, ,400 CTG Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade Financials 1.3% 18,350 68, ,122 30% 38,250 17,700 DHG DHG Pharmaceutical JSC Health Care 0.5% 75,500 9, % 118,000 72,700 DPM FPT Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemicals JSC FPT Corp Materials 0.6% 21,400 8, % 26,600 16,100 Information Technology 3.6% 42,400 26, % 56,957 38,500 GAS PetroVietnam Gas JSC Utilities 1.6% 89, , % 136,400 70,000 GMD Gemadept Corp Industrials 1.2% 25,900 7, % 39,473 23,000 HPG Hoa Phat Group JSC Materials 7.0% 29,500 62, ,812 39% 48,429 28,700 HSG Hoa Sen Group Materials 0.3% 6,700 2, ,003 16% 26,136 5,920 KDC MBB MSN MWG KIDO Group Corp Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank Masan Group Corp Mobile World Investment Corp Staples 0.5% 22,950 4,720 N/A % 45,800 22,050 Financials 4.3% 19,350 41, ,964 20% 31,471 18,050 Staples Discretionary 7.7% 79,000 91, % 118,000 71, % 85,400 37, % 100,653 73,502 09/01/2019 Page 6

7 NVL PLX PNJ REE No Va Land Investment Group Corp Vietnam National Petroleum Group Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corp Real Estate 3.5% 58,800 54, % 78,800 49,300 Energy 1.2% 54,200 62, % 95,500 51,800 Discretionary 2.4% 91,500 15, % 138,733 75,000 Industrials 1.0% 30,600 9, % 44,750 29,150 ROS FLC Faros Construction JSC Industrials 1.0% 36,000 20, ,250 2% 145,333 34,850 SAB SBT Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC Staples Staples 4.4% 244, , % 267, , % 20,400 10, ,390 11% 24,600 13,300 SSI SSI Securities Corp Financials 1.4% 25,750 13, ,061 59% 44,400 25,200 STB VCB Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial JSB Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam JSC Financials 3.6% 11,400 20, ,862 13% 17,300 9,670 Financials 3.7% 55, , ,260 21% 76,500 46,800 VIC Vingroup JSC Real Estate 11.6% 101, , % 113,058 61,570 VJC Vietjet Aviation JSC Industrials 5.8% 115,000 62, % 191, ,100 VNM Vietnam Dairy Products JSC Staples 11.3% 131, , % 178, ,500 VPB Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank Financials 6.6% 19,150 47, ,441 23% 43,259 18,350 VRE Vincom Retail JSC Real Estate 5.7% 29,050 67, ,491 31% 50,204 26,700 09/01/2019 Page 7

8 Event Calendar Ex-right date Ticker Exchange Right 10/01/2019 FCM HSX 2019 AGM 10/01/2019 TIP HSX 2018 first cash dividend payment (VND1,500/share) 11/01/2019 BMI HSX Shareholder s poll meeting 11/01/2019 PXL Upcom Shareholder s poll meeting 11/01/2019 HNP Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND1,700/share) 11/01/2019 VWS Upcom Cash dividend payment (VND700/share) 09/01/2019 Page 8

9 Contacts HCM City Head Office Level 3, Maritime Bank Tower Nguyen Cong Tru St., District 1, HCM City Tel: (+84 28) Fax: (+84 28) Hanoi Branch Level 6, CTM Tower 299 Cau Giay, Cau Giay District, Hanoi Tel: (+84 24) Fax: (+84 24) Institutional Sales Ms. Uyen Lam Head of Institutional Sales (+84 28) (x1444)

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