Banking stocks lead market gains

Transcription

1 Millions XIN CHAO VIETNAM 31-Oct-18 Market Performance 31-Oct 1M (%) 3M (%) VN % -4.4% Turnover 6,981 (VNDbn) Foreign Net Buy -163 (VNDbn) Source: Bloomberg-Finpro 1,400 1,200 1, VN 1Y Movement /17 01/18 04/18 07/18 Fixed-Income and Commodity 31-Oct 1M 3M 1Y G-bond yield 4.363% 4.088% 3.500% Banking stocks lead market gains Viet Nam stock market rebound successfully thanks to buying on banking stocks. The VN- gained 2.93% to close at 914 pts while liquidity increased 158 million order-matching shares or VND3,211bn in value. Market breadth was positive with 3 gainers against each loser on HSX. The VN30- rose 3.15% with 27 constituents of the VN30 closed in green territory. CTD, DPM, HPG, MSN, MWG, PLX, PNJ, SSI and VJC saw positive trading money as price increased more than 3%. Banking tickers were the market leaders as BID limited up, CTG (+5.4%), VCB (+2.6%), VPB (+5.2%), STB (+4.6%) and ACB (+6.3%). In addition, Real Estates, Oil and Gas stocks outperformed the broad market namely VHM, NLG, DXG, GAS, PVD, PVT and PVS. Foreign investors continued to sell a net value of VND163bn on HSX. VNM, VHM and VHC were sold the most with a net value of VND70bn, VND46bn and VND34bn respectively. In the opposite side, they bought heavily HPG, BVH and GMD. Market commentary: Bullish market is dominant and cash is flowing into bluechip stocks. However, the downside risk is still intact so traders should be cautious and wait for the consolidation of market before taking action. 3Y G-bond yield 4.543% 4.278% 3.725% 10Y G-bond yield 5.213% 5.013% 4.975% WTI ($/bbl) Gold ($/oz) 1,216 1,193 1,224 Source: Bloomberg 200 VN Trading Map Corp.Earnings Forecast by KISVN 2017 TTM 2018E 2019F Earning Growth (%) 27.8% 28.8% 23.9% 15.2% PER Forward (x) Mr. Phat Pham (+84 28) Ext: 1468 Phat.pt@kisvn.vn Mr. Hieu Tran (+84 28) Ext: 1464 Hieu.ttm@kisvn.vn HSG VNM HPG VJC ACB CTG MBB VRE PVS SBT MSN DXG HDB VCB SSI VHM STBVPB VIC PVD ROS GEX GAS PLX ASM BID GMD SHB MWG TCHPDR AAA PNJ TCB BVH IDI HBC VHC VND FLC CTI HAG 0-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -20 Note: Vertical axis traded value (VND billion), horizontal axis price change Page 1

2 Technical View VN- Support 1: Resistance 1: Support 2: Resistance 2: 1,070-1,080 Short-term Technical View (20 days) - VN- The VN- as our expectation, rallied significantly after retesting the July low of this year or pts. The Bullish Belt-Hold candlestick showed dominant buying force. Order matching increased notably to 159 million units also confirmed the bullish candlestick. On the short-term basis (20 days), the VN- found the support around pts area where there is the lower channel and July swing low. The RSI crossed above its MA(10). Today strong rally confirmed that the index already formed short-term low and price is entering significant rally. The short-term resistance laid around pts meanwhile we project the rebound could return to pts. On the medium-term, the VN- had completed its C wave leg of Flat pattern (marked A-B-C). After price broke down of upward trendline, the medium trend has turned bearish. Medium-term strong support laid around pts. Action The VN- saw a strong gain today which confirmed our short-term bullish scenario. Investor can keep current stock weight as we expect the rally will be extended in sessions ahead. 31/10/2018 Page 2

3 Market Statistics HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics VN % Gainers 227 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 216,192 82, % Losers 67 Trading Val. (VNDbn) 6,981 4, % Unchanged 77 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn VHM 66,400 4, VNM 116,100-1, HPG 40, GAS 104,000 5, BHN 82,200-2, VJC 133, BID 29,500 1, HDB 32, HSG 9, MSN 83,000 5, HSG 9, CTG 23, VCB 55,600 1, NKG 9, VNM 116, Top 5 Advancing Industry Industry Change Top 5 Declining Industry Industry Change % Point % Point Discretionary 5.1% 1.07 Utilities 4.4% 3.21 Energy 4.1% 1.13 Financials 3.6% 8.68 Industrials 3.3% 2.27 HA NOI STOCK EXCHANGE Change Change % Gain/Loss Statistics HNX % Gainers 142 Trading Vol. ('000 shares) 37,707 1, % Losers 47 Trading Val. (VNDbn) % Unchanged 184 Top 5 Leaders Top 5 Laggards Top Most Liquid (Order Matching) Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Change Ticker Price Volume Value VND VND Point VND VND Point VND mn. shares VNDbn ACB 30,300 1, DL1 32, ACB 30, PVS 19,000 1, TV3 41,000-4, PVS 19, SHB 7, VNC 40,100-2, SHB 7, DGC 47,100 2, HDA 11,300-1, TNG 16, VGC 15, MSC 15,500-1, SHS 14, Top 5 Advancing Industry Industry Change Top 5 Declining Industry Industry Change % Point % Point Other 71.4% 0.00 Health Care -0.4% Information Technology 52.8% 0.00 Discretionary 28.2% 0.06 Utilities 15.0% 0.01 Industrials 9.5% /10/2018 Page 3

4 Foreign Activities HOSE HNX Top 5 Foreign Net Buy Top 5 Foreign Net Buy Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn HPG 40, VGC 15, BVH 98, HUT 5, GMD 27, SHB 7, KDH 32, INN 34, VND 18, HCC 14, Top 5 Foreign Net Sell Top 5 Foreign Net Sell Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value Ticker Price Buy Value Sell value Net Value VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VND VNDbn VNDbn VNDbn VNM 116, VCG 18, VHM 66, API 17, VHC 94, WCS 125, CTG 23, PVS 19, HDB 32, PVC 6, (VNDbn) Sell Buy Net Foreign Buy/Sell 20,000 15,000 Net buy 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 31/10/2018 Page 4

5 Derivatives Short-term Technical View VN30- Support 1: Resistance 1: 930 Support 2: Resistance 2: 1,000 Trend Analysis: The VN30- saw strong bullish candlestick from the July 2018 swing low or pts. Volume also increased which confirmed the bullish outlook. We have strong evidence that the short-term bottom is formed at 860 pts area. Trading Strategy: The benchmark looked like to make short-term bottom. The short-term resistance for the VN30F1811 laid around pts. In short, the rally is expected to continue in sessions ahead. -Long VN30F1811 with entry around pts. Price target 917 pts. Stop-loss when price breaks below 893 pts. 31/10/2018 Page 5

6 FUTURE CONTRACTS Close Price +/- +/- % Trading Volume Open Interest Expiration Date Days to Expiration Unit: Points Points % shares/contracts contracts days VN % 37,875,270 VN30F % 118,224 16,870 15/11/ VN30F % /12/ VN30F % /03/ VN30F % /06/ VND Future Price Curves / / / /2019 Current 1M 1W VND Historical / / /2018 Historical Quote Name Industry Weight VN30 INDEX MEMBERS Current Price Market Cap PER PBR 3M. VOL Unit: % VND VND bn. x x '000 shares Foreign Owned 52W High 52W Low % VND VND BMP Binh Minh Plastics JSC Industrials 0.4% 57,000 4, % 98,800 51,200 CII Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment JSC Industrials 0.8% 23,750 5, % 39,500 22,600 CTD Coteccons Construction JSC Industrials 1.1% 145,600 11, % 244, ,400 CTG Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade Financials 1.5% 23,400 87, ,397 30% 38,250 18,400 DHG DHG Pharmaceutical JSC Health Care 0.5% 84,000 10, % 118,000 82,100 DPM FPT Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemicals JSC FPT Corp Materials 0.5% 18,800 7, % 26,600 16,100 Information Technology 3.4% 41,950 25, % 56,957 38,500 GAS PetroVietnam Gas JSC Utilities 1.8% 104, , % 136,400 70,000 GMD Gemadept Corp Industrials 1.2% 27,450 8, ,050 45% 39,473 23,000 HPG Hoa Phat Group JSC Materials 9.1% 40,250 85, ,907 39% 48,429 24,857 HSG Hoa Sen Group Materials 0.4% 9,230 3, ,535 19% 26,136 9,230 KDC MBB MSN MWG KIDO Group Corp Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank Masan Group Corp Mobile World Investment Corp Staples 0.6% 25,900 5,327 #N/A N/A % 45,800 24,700 Financials 4.6% 21,900 47, ,202 20% 31,471 18,655 Staples Discretionary 7.7% 83,000 96, % 118,000 55, % 112,800 36, % 138,600 98,000 31/10/2018 Page 6

7 NVL PLX PNJ REE No Va Land Investment Group Corp Vietnam National Petroleum Group Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corp Real Estate 4.0% 71,100 64, % 78,800 45,038 Energy 1.2% 59,500 68, % 95,500 51,800 Discretionary 2.4% 97,000 15, % 138,733 68,000 Industrials 1.0% 31,500 9, % 44,750 29,150 ROS FLC Faros Construction JSC Industrials 1.0% 38,150 21, ,246 2% 187,500 35,000 SAB SBT Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa JSC Staples Staples 3.8% 222, , % 347, , % 20,700 10, ,181 10% 24,600 13,300 SSI Saigon Securities Inc Financials 1.5% 28,650 14, ,541 58% 44,400 21,900 STB VCB Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial JSB Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam JSC Financials 3.8% 12,500 22, ,200 12% 17,300 9,670 Financials 3.5% 55, , ,856 21% 76,500 40,800 VIC Vingroup JSC Real Estate 10.6% 97, , ,084 10% 113,058 47,686 VJC Vietjet Aviation JSC Industrials 6.4% 133,700 72, % 191,167 92,333 VNM Vietnam Dairy Products JSC Staples 9.4% 116, , % 179, ,500 VPB Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank Financials 7.0% 21,400 52, ,557 23% 43,259 20,000 VRE Vincom Retail JSC Real Estate 4.5% 29,800 69, ,914, % 50,204 27,918 31/10/2018 Page 7

8 Event Calendar Ex-right date Ticker Exchange Right 01/11/2018 HPX HSX 2017 stock dividend payment (ratio 100:15) 01/11/2018 PGS HNX Cash dividend payment (VND1.000/share) 01/11/2018 KHA Upcom Shareholder s poll meeting, cash dividend payment (VND1.500/share) 01/11/2018 TVP Upcom 2018 EGM 01/11/2018 VNI Upcom 2018 second EGM 01/11/2018 TIX HSX 2018 AGM 01/11/2018 SD3 Upcom Shareholder s poll meeting 01/11/2018 BLF HNX Shareholder s poll meeting 01/11/2018 PXC Upcom Shareholder s poll meeting 01/11/2018 MST HNX 2018 EGM 02/11/2018 CMT HSX Shareholder s poll meeting 02/11/2018 DXG HSX Shareholder s poll meeting 02/11/2018 GKM HNX Stock dividend payment (ratio 5%) 02/11/2018 COM HSX 2018 EGM 31/10/2018 Page 8

9 Contacts HCM City Head Office Level 3, Maritime Bank Tower Nguyen Cong Tru St., District 1, HCM City Tel: (+84 28) Fax: (+84 28) Hanoi Branch Level 6, CTM Tower 299 Cau Giay, Cau Giay District, Hanoi Tel: (+84 24) Fax: (+84 24) Institutional Sales Ms. Uyen Lam Head of Institutional Sales (+84 28) (x1444)

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