A Return on Investment Study for the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council

Transcription

1 A Return on Investment Study for the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council Utilizing the Results to Make your Programs Better... Greg D. Tyler Vice President of Marketing USA Poultry & Egg Export Council

2 A Big Thanks to... Provided funding Outstanding research

3 USAPEEC and its Mission The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) is a non-profit trade association whose more than 200 members account for more than 95% of all U.S. poultry and egg exports. USAPEEC exists for the purpose of increasing U.S. poultry & egg exports by protecting, opening and developing markets throughout the world and by serving as the industry s voice on trade policy issues.

4 Based in Stone Mountain, Georgia, USAPEEC has 14 international offices in major export markets *USAPEEC is currently operating programs in over 75 countries worldwide

5 U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Value (In million U.S. dollars) $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 T able eggs and egg products Other Poultry T urkey Value Broiler Value Total export value in 2012 set a new record at $5.72 billion, up 12.2 from (p) Source: USDA/FAS

6 Percentage of U.S. Poultry & Egg Production Exported Broiler 6.0% 17.3% 19.8% 21.4% Turkey 1.6% 8.4% 10.5% 13.5% Eggs 1.5% 2.5% 3.1% 4.1%

7 Number of Export Markets Continues to Grow Broiler Turkey Table eggs

8 U.S. Broiler Exports- A Changing Landscape ROW 36.1% Russia 20.5% ROW 53.1% Mexico 15.3% Cuba 4.1% = Hong Kong 8.1% Iraq 4.5% Hong Kong 4.6% Mexico 10.4% China 19.9% Canada 4.7% Angola 5.0% 2012 China 6.5% 2009 In 2009, top two markets comprised more than 40% of total export quantity; now the top four markets comprise less than 40%. Russia 7.3%

9 Where does USAPEEC get its funding? 1) U.S. Industry Membership Dues/Contributions 2) Check-off Funds from U.S. Soy & Corn Industries 3) Check-off Funds from the American Egg Board 4) Proceeds from Export Trading Company (ETC) auctions in Central & South America. 5) MAP/FMD/EMP

10 Why do an ROI Study??? 1) The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993 requires performance measurement of Federal programs including MAP and FMD, and FAS funding decisions consider whether cooperators strategies result in trade outcomes over time. 2) All stakeholders need to see the value of their investments 3) Demonstrating program outcomes impact on trade outcomes. 4) Improves overall program efficiency and is used to ensure that program dollars are being properly allocated across targeted markets.

11 It is Important to Show the Benefits to Your Investors Pounds Pounds of Soybean Meal Per Pound of Production 0.61 Chicken 0.74 Turkey KMT Indirect Soybean Meal Exports via Broiler and Turkey Exports Baseline Accelerated Scenario

12 Types of Analyses Carried Out... Two distinct sets of analyses were preformed to measure the return to market promotion activities 1) Data were pooled across countries and time, and average effect of promotional spending on export demand was measured for each of five poultry categories (broilers + paws, broilers paws, turkey, egg all poultry & eggs.) 2) Individual Country Analyses were also undertaken to measure the relationship between USAPEEC spending and higher export demand. ***For both analyses, WPI looked at USAPEEC programs over a 10-year period.

13 USAPEEC Represents Four Commodities

14 Methodology for Return on Investment (ROI) Numbers Sample of Regression Results The Effect APA of Spending on the Value of Broiler, Turkey, and Other Poultry Exports Parameters Coefficient Std. Error t-value Chicken Live Weight GDP per Capita Population Exchange Rate Effect of Total APA Spending

15 $ Sales/$APA ROI by Product Category $1.42 Egg Products $6.25 $54.32 Turkey Broilers + Paws $59.32 All $82.31 Broilers Table shows the effect of a $1 increase in USAPEEC spending on the value of U.S. exports of that product category.

16 And then a Country by Country Analysis...

17 Analysis of Spending Results Total Value and 10-year Growth Rate of APA Spending and Exports by Country Country Total APA Total Exports 7 Spending 10-yr Growth Rate Value 10-yr Growth Rate (US dollars) (percent) (US dollars) (percent) Russia 10,333, ,325, Hong Kong 1 1,518, ,671, Mexico 6,003, ,855, China 6,976, ,955, Japan 3,729, , Canada ,822,

18 Poultry Product Exports APA Change Export Change

19 Russia

20 China

21 Japan

22 UAE

23 Mexico

24 Some Factors to be Considered... 1) Disease outbreaks (whether in the U.S. or in other parts of the world) can dramatically influence consumption of poultry meat and eggs regardless of source. 2) Anti-dumping cases and other protectionist measures can create market hiccups and skew export numbers drastically. (e.g. China/Hong Kong/Vietnam.)

25 So how did we use the results?

26 Change can be difficult... 1) Decrease funding in Russia 2) Ride out the storm in China 3) Increase funding in Middle East/Africa 4) Try to find new niches in markets like Japan AND Decide whether to maintain in Caribbean. 5) And for some markets, there are reasons to just keep standing around and picking your nose... (e.g. Canada) USAPEEC ALWAYS RELIES HEAVILY ON INDUSTRY INPUT!

27 Key Takeaways Justification: USAPEEC s promotional activities yielded large returns in the form of increased export demand. Targeting: Activities are focused in markets that are growing. Anomalies exist Importance: Exports are an increasing share of consumption. USAPEEC Programs are needed! USAPEEC could take monitoring efforts to the next level and evaluate the ROI on an activitybased level.

28 Cautionary Note... Remember that evaluations should be used as a guideline/not a hard & fast rule. More $ More Exports

29 Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. -Albert Einstein

30 Thank You! Greg D. Tyler Vice President of Marketing USA Poultry & Egg Export Council