Global Aluminum Markets for Packaging, 25 th October 2017, Nashville, Tn

Transcription

1 Global Aluminum Markets for Packaging, 25 th October 2017, Nashville, Tn Paul Williams, Research Manager, Aluminium October 25-26, 2017

2 2 Structure of presentation 1 Packaging sector in context 2 Key demand drivers 3 Growth outlook for foil and can stock 4 Capacity and trade 5 Conclusions

3 Packaging: a wide range of applications for aluminum 3

4 Packaging still a key market for the aluminum industry Steady growth in aluminum demand in packaging no huge decline in GFC 8% Aluminum semis demand by sector 6% 33.3% 26.0% 4% 2% 0% % change in demand 7.9% 60% of foil stock goes to packaging 7.3% 25.6% -2% Transport Construction Packaging Foil stock Other sectors Global semis market 2017: 87.4 million tonnes; packaging sector (inc. foil stock for packaging) 10.5 million tonnes Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Market Outlook 4

5 5 Urbanisation: a driver of packaging growth % of population living in urban dwellings Africa China India SE Asia Western Asia

6 Regional per capita beverage can demand growth Growth in emerging markets to drive can stock demand with growth in sleek/slim cans 250 cans consumed per capita India Africa Rest of Asia China C&S America Middle East Europe Japan N.America Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook 2017 Market Outlook Outlook 6

7 Aluminium s share of European can market to rise further European aluminium and steel can production (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Tinplate share Aluminium share Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook

8 Trends in beverage can markets Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook

9 Globally beverage can stock will see solid growth 7, t 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, USA & Canada Japan Europe China Rest of world Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook

10 Packaging foil markets positive in emerging markets Data: CRU 10

11 Asia to lead growth in packaging foil 4, s tonnes 3,000 2,000 1, China Asia ex. China Europe North America Rest of world Source: CRU Aluminium Rolled Products Market Outlook 11

12 Changing landscape of global can stock capacity Where is can stock capacity rising and falling? China growing strongly Declining UACJ expanding in Thailand Flat Rising Hulamin expanded Ma aden expanding Closed down Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook 2017

13 Shift in capacity in the USA: Can stock to Auto body sheet Loss in can stock capacity As focus switches to auto body sheet Result: changes in global can stock capacity will mean significant changes in net trade flows Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook

14 Chinese can stock capacities rising significantly Chinese can stock capacity (000s tpy) Nanshan Chalco Gongyi Zhongfu Binzhou Weiqiao CS Aluminium Tianjin Zhongwang Luoyang Wanji Data: CRU Source : Aluminium Can Stock Market Outlook

15 Chinese exports of plain foil continue to grow strongly Chinese exports of plain foil up by 12% y-o-y in 2016, reaching 656kt. Continued strong growth in H but trade actions now hitting US and India exports Canada 19kt Russia 7kt Mexico 25kt USA 130kt Brazil 8kt Europe 73kt Saudi Arabia 23kt UAE 28kt India 86kt China S.E Asia 100kt S. Korea 27kt Japan 20kt Data: IHS, CRU estimates Source: CRU Aluminium Rolled Products Market Outlook 15

16 Trade and China President Trump: Chinese tariffs? WTO case. AA case against Chinese foil imports India: anti-dumping duties on Chinese foil imports 16

17 Implications for trade flows in aluminum for packaging US can stock capacity falling; imports are growing but will there be higher tariffs? Chinese foil represents significant proportion of US and Indian market who will fill the gap? What will China s response be? 17

18 Key points Packaging sector still a key part of global aluminum demand (12%), and resilient to economic downturn Growth prospects remain firm in can stock, especially in emerging markets. Steady growth also in packaging foils. Trade actions against China, especially in the US. Firstly on foil but sheet possible as well. 18

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