Monetary Policy Review November 2008

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3 Monetary Policy Review November 2008 The Monetary Policy Review (MPR) is published monthly by Bank Indonesia after the Board of Governors Meeting each February, March, May, June, August, September, November, and December. This report is intended as a medium for the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia to present to the public the latest evaluation of monetary conditions, assessment and forecast for the Indonesian economy, in addition to the Bank Indonesia monetary policy response published quarterly in the Monetary Policy Report in January, April, July, and October. Specifically, the MPR presents an evaluation of the latest developments in inflation, the exchange rate, and monetary conditions during the reporting month and decisions concerning the monetary policy response adopted by Bank Indonesia. Board of Governors Boediono Gubernur Miranda S. Goeltom Deputi Gubernur Senior Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputi Gubernur Siti Ch. Fadjrijah Deputi Gubernur S. Budi Rochadi Deputi Gubernur Muliaman D. Hadad Deputi Gubernur Adhayadi Mitroatmodjo Deputi Gubernur Budi Mulya Deputi Gubernur 1

4 Table of Contens I. Monetary Policy Statement...3 II. Monetary Policy and Indicators...5 I n f l a t i o n...5 Rupiah Exchange Rate...7 Monetary Policy...8 Policy Strategy...8 Interest Rates...9 Funds, Credit, and the Money Supply...10 The Capital Market...11 Condition of the Banking System...14 III. Monetary Policy Response

5 I. MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT The Indonesia economy is still weathering the spillover effects of the global financial crisis. The fallout from the world economic downturn has borne down on the economic performance of Indonesia with impact exceeding original forecasts. Recent weeks have seen a realignment in various domestic macroeconomic indicators. The Indonesian economy is moving towards a new equilibrium. In regard to inflation, the slowing world economy will inevitably soften inflationary pressure from international prices for goods. For the most part, domestic inflationary pressure is easing. Nevertheless, Bank Indonesia is keeping a watch on future inflation risks that call for close monitoring. Faced with these conditions, Bank Indonesia stands by the importance of maintaining an appropriate monetary policy to strike a balance between achievement of the inflation target and medium and long-term economic stability. Various economic indicators show that the global economic crisis has spread to Indonesia, affecting domestic economic performance. Economic growth is predicted to decline. Household consumption is forecasted to see slowing growth in tandem with weakening investment due to loss of external demand and the mounting risks from uncertainties in the world economy. Export growth is also predicted to enter a sluggish phase, while import growth will plateau. On the supply side, the key growth sectors of agriculture and industry are expected to chart reduced growth compared to the preceding quarter. However, the growth outlook for some sectors, such as transport and telecommunications and electrical power, remains strong. Amid these multifaceted developments, inflation has remained the principal area of concern for Bank Indonesia. The various policies pursued by Bank Indonesia are directed at mitigating inflationary pressure in the medium to long term. Inflation in October 2008 reached 11.77% (yoy), down from the preceding month. Inflation eased mainly in response to lower volatile foods inflation and a deflationary contribution in the administered prices category. On the fundamentals side, slowing domestic demand and reduced pressure from imported inflation eased pressures in core inflation. Even so, Bank Indonesia is keeping a close watch on demand-pull pressures in inflation and the continued high credit expansion in the banking system. After taking account of the various factors 3

6 containing inflationary pressure and mitigating risks, Bank Indonesia still predicts CPI inflation at end-2008 in the 11.5%-12.5% range. During October 2008, the rupiah exchange rate underwent depreciation. Global sentiment has led to a shift among foreign investors to risk aversion. In the natural course of events, the outbreak of the global crisis has prompted investors to move their portfolios out of Indonesia, setting off a wave of capital outflows. Despite the still healthy condition of Indonesia s fundamentals, this behaviour has triggered a weakening in the rupiah. In this, Indonesia is far from alone. Currencies across the region have been hit by exchange rate losses. Everywhere, the cause is the same: the spillover effect of global sentiment. Calculated as an average, the rupiah slipped 6.5% during October 2008 to a level of Rp 9,998 per USD. On the stock market, the Indonesian Composite Index also took significant battering from the contagion of the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, for the month as a whole, stock investors continued to book a net purchase. In the face of the havoc wreaked by the global crisis, the Indonesian banking system remains in predominantly solid condition. Key banking indicators reflect strong resilience in the face of the world financial turmoil. Banking liquidity, which had tightened up in the early days of the crisis, is now more readily available. The various policies pursued by the Government and Bank Indonesia, such as relaxation of the reserve requirement, have contributed to increased banking liquidity on financial markets. This has afforded banks greater room for manoeuvre in conducting their business. Following this varied developments, the Board of Governors Meeting convened on 6 November 2008 decided to hold the BI Rate at 9.5%. Besides employing the BI Rate, Bank Indonesia is optimising the use of all monetary instruments at its disposal, such as the Open Market Operations (OMOs), while maintaining stability on the interbank and forex markets. Monetary policy transmission will operate through movement in interest rates linked to the interbank money market rate, which represents the operational target of monetary policy. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will maintain a close watch on emerging global risks that may influence inflationary pressure and macroeconomic stability. To this end, Bank Indonesia will keep working in close coordination with the Government to maintain a close watch on developments and outlook in the global, regional and domestic economy in order to secure medium and long-term economic stability. 4

7 II. MONETARY POLICY AND INDICATORS The mounting intensity of the crisis on global financial markets dominated macroeconomic developments during October The fallout from the global crisis has hit performance on regional financial markets, including Indonesia. Despite this, inflationary pressures began to ease in keeping with the world economic slowdown and falling international commodity prices. Analysed for the month, inflation in October 2008 reached 11.77% (yoy). This decline in inflation is attributable to a drop in volatile foods inflation consistent with the fall in international commodity prices. Added to this was deflation in the administered prices category, with prices revised downwards for the Pertamax and Pertamax Plus automotive fuels. Despite the present downturn, future inflationary pressure must nevertheless be monitored carefully, with focus on demand-pull pressure, the continued high rate of credit expansion and depreciation in the rupiah. In October 2008, the rupiah weakened in comparison to the preceding month due to the influence of global factors. On the monetary policy side, the BI Rate hike was transmitted through the interest rate channel to commercial bank deposit rates and lending rates. This was followed by increased loan disbursements and funds mobilisation. On financial markets, stock market performance fell significantly due to the deteriorating condition of global financial markets. However, the drop in share prices was arrested in a series of actions taken by the IDX. Alongside this, similar weakening took place on the government securities market, with pressure bearing down on these instruments reflected in higher yield for almost all tenors. Graph 2.1. Consumer Price Index Inflation The downturn in international commodity prices alongside falling demand in the wake of the Eid-ul-Fitr religious festivities helped curb inflation during October Monthly inflation in October 2008 dropped to 0.45% from the previous month s level of 0.97%. Measured annually, inflation was recorded in October 2008 at 11.77%, down from 12.14% in September Accordingly, inflation until October 2008 reached 10.96%, well above the 5.24% charted for the same period one year earlier (Graph 2.1). 5

8 Analysed by contribution, CPI inflation was fuelled mainly by foodstuffs (0.15%) and processed foods, beverages and tobacco (0.13%) (Graph 2.2). In the foodstuffs category, commodities with a dominant contribution to inflation included fresh fish. Fresh fish prices were up by 3.48% as a result of tightening supply. Other commodities contributing to inflation were chicken and beef at 0.04% and 0.02%, due to limited market supply related to stubbornly high animal feed prices. In the processed food, beverages and tobacco category, continued high prices for wheat flour meant that some manufactured food items, such as noodles, again contributed to inflation. Another commodity that again contributed to inflation was fuel, due to the impact of the ongoing kerosene conversion programme. Graph 2.2. Inflation and Contribution of Inflation by Group (November 2008, m-t-m) Lower CPI inflation in October 2008 was explained primarily by nonfundamental factors, while fundamentals were relatively stable. Analysed by the sub-category approach used by Bank Indonesia, monthly and annual inflation in core items is estimated to be stable. Alongside this, inflation in volatile foods and administered prices recorded decline. The drop in volatile foods inflation is explained primarily by falling prices for cooking oil, as international CPO prices tumble. Reinforcing this was deflation in seasonings in response to more abundant supply, an added factor in the downturn in volatile foods inflation. On the other hand, meat prices continued to rise in keeping with tight market supply caused by persistently high animal feed prices. Another commodity marked by increased prices was fresh fish. Prices climbed significantly for this commodity with supply hit by weather conditions. At the same time, rice was relatively stable with healthy levels of domestic production and procurement by the National Logistics Agency (Bulog). On 28 October 2008, the rice buffer stock stood at million tons, the highest level reached since In the absence of increases in administered prices, October inflation in this category was down from earlier months. Inflationary pressure in administered prices was linked mainly to higher prices paid for cigarettes (0.03% contribution) 1 and kerosene. Kerosene prices mounted partly because of the removal of the kerosene subsidy in Semarang on 15 October 2008, which caused prices to soar from Rp 6,000/litre to Rp 1 It is understood that the ongoing increases in cigarette prices are related to the planned 25% cigarette tax slated for introduction by regional governments (Kompas, 18 September 2008). Graph 2.3 Exchange Rate vs Commodities Imported Inflation and Core Traded 6

9 Graph 2.4 Consumer Price Expectations Graph 2.5 Trader Price Expectations Graph 2.6 Average Rupiah Exchange Rate 9,570/litre (62%). Countering these increases were price cuts for Pertamax and Pertamax Plus that resulted in a 0.01% deflation contribution from gasoline in the administered prices category. At the same time, pressure from external factors steadily eased with the softening of international commodity prices. However, inflationary pressure emerged from the steep depreciation in the exchange rate. With this combination, core inflation was relatively stable compared to the previous month. This stable level was achieved through reduced pressures from imported inflation (Graph 2.3), which offset rising prices for some commodities brought on by exchange depreciation. The lower imported inflation was reflected in more economical prices for commodities linked to international commodity markets, such as grains and soy beans. Alongside this, the minimal impact of exchange rate depreciation was reflected in a slim increase in pharmaceutical prices at 0.82%. On the other hand, inflation expectations moved lower (Graphs 2.4 and 2.5) and estimates suggest reduced pressure from the output gap in keeping with softening demand. In disaggregation by goods, price movements for gold jewellery again resulted in a contribution to inflation at 0.05%. Rupiah Exchange Rate During October 2008, the rupiah underwent depreciation in response to risk aversion by foreign investors. High yields on rupiah instruments were insufficient to prevent foreign capital outflows, particularly from Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBIs) and government securities. Averaged over the month, the rupiah weakened 6.5% from Rp 9,351/USD to Rp 9,998/ USD (Graph 2.6). However, at the end of the period, the rupiah closed at Rp 10,975/USD, having lost 14.5% of its value from the end-september level of Rp 9,385. Escalating negative sentiment from external factors also heightened rupiah volatility, which climbed from 1.4% to 3.15% (Graph 2.7). Higher risks driven primarily by external factors had significant impact on movement in the rupiah exchange rate (Graph 2.8). The capital outflows resulting from flight to quality led to dramatic weakening in the rupiah (Graph 2.9). Although rupiah investment yield remained high, this was inadequate to curb the rate of capital outflows due to the high level of risks. Capital outflows were also recorded for other countries in the region. 7

10 Risk indicators for emerging markets deteriorated, as reflected in the sharp rise in the EMBIG (Emerging Market Bond Index Global) Spread, representing the spread between yield on US T-Notes and composite yield on emerging markets. Investors were deterred by their bearish assessment of the outlook for fund placements in emerging market assets, due to the spreading impact of recession and the global liquidity crunch. These developments prompted investors to move their funds to more secure assets. Monetary Policy Graph 2.7 Rupiah Exchange Rate Volatility Policy Strategy In October 2008, the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors decided to raise the BI Rate 25 bps to 9.5%. This decision was taken after careful assessment and consideration of the latest global financial and economic developments and the possibility of impact on the Indonesian economy. Bank Indonesia has also examined in depth the outlook for growth in domestic demand, the balance of payments and domestic financial sector resilience within the context of global change. To curb inflation, Bank Indonesia is optimising the use of all monetary policy instruments at its disposal. Rupiah stabilisation is focused on efforts to avoid excessive turbulence in the exchange rate. Other policy actions taken by Bank Indonesia in support of financial system stability include a ruling to allow banks to transfer government securities portfolios from the tradable and available for sale category to the hold until maturity category pending the launching of Financial Accounting Standards No. 55 (1 January 2009). This ruling also applies if the securities consist of other, long-term domestic debt. In addition, the FX swap tenor has been extended from 7 days to 1 month, while Bank Indonesia has increased the availability of foreign currency for domestic companies through the banking system, lowered the forex reserve requirement from 3% to 1%, removed the daily limit on net short-term foreign borrowings by lifting the restriction on the daily position of short-term foreign borrowings and simplified the rupiah reserve requirement to 7.5% of depositor funds. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will maintain coordination with the Government in monitoring of developments and taking the necessary Graph 2.8 Movement in Major World and Regional Currencies Graph 2.9 Appreciation/Depreciation Exchange Rate compare to November

11 actions to safeguard Indonesia s financial resilience and financial system stability and in so doing ensure the sound management of the financial system. Graph 2.10 Yield Spread Government Bond RI dan AS Graph 2.11 Swap Premium Graph 2.12 Comparison of Some Regional Countries Yield Spread Interest Rates The overnight interbank rate remained stable at about the BI Rate. During October 2008, the overnight interbank rate maintained an upward bias, reflecting the strength of liquidity demand on the money market. However, this condition gradually eased with the intensity of monetary operations launched by Bank Indonesia and the effect taking hold from the reduction in the rupiah reserve requirement midway through the fourth week of October At the same time, interbank rates for longer tenors continued to rise. This indicates a need for liquidity while reflecting perceptions of persistently high risk. Perceptions of tightened money market liquidity amid acceleration in credit expansion provided an added boost for time deposit rates. To meet their funding needs, banks showed indications of raising time deposit rates above the guarantee rate, particularly for prime customers. This increase in deposit rates was even stronger than the rise in the BI Rate for the same period. As the month progressed, these rates did not ease, even after the relaxation of the reserve requirement. The highest deposit rates were recorded for the 1-24 month tenors at 13.25%-14.31%. In related developments, the increases in the BI Rate have been transmitted in growing magnitude to lending rates (Graph 2.13). In September 2008, the weighted average rate for working capital credit mounted by a steep 51 bps, mainly from rate increases at foreign and joint venture banks. Alongside this, the average rate for investment credit, previously on the way down, managed a turnaround in September 2008 with a significant 46 bps rise buoyed mainly by higher rates charged for investment credit at foreign and joint venture banks and private domestic banks. 9

12 Table 2.1 Development of Various Interest Rates Interest Rate (%) 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct BI Rate Deposit Guarentee month Deposit (Weighted Average) n.a 1-month Deposit (Counter Rate) Base Lending Rate Working Capital Credit n.a Invesment Credit n.a Consumption Credit n.a Funds, Credit and the Money Supply The October 2008 rise in the BI Rate was followed by accelerated funding growth. (Graph 2.14) During September 2008, depositor funds mounted by 14.3%, well ahead of the 9.7% expansion of the previous month. This increase was spread out among almost all funding components. Time deposits showed renewed growth commensurate with the high level of deposit rates. The accelerated growth was recorded in almost all tenors, led by 3 months and 6 month deposits. The major contributors to time deposit growth were individuals and private companies. The slowed performance in savings deposits held by private companies appears related to the migration to time deposits in pursuit of more attractive interest rates. Graph 2.13 Interest Rate Credit by Usage On the other hand, the BI Rate hike was in fact followed by increased lending. (Graph 2.15) The credit market continued to feel the effect of the monetary policy lag, as evident in the 34.6% annual rate of credit expansion recorded in September 2008, up slightly from the previous month s rate of 32.5%. Analysed by purpose of use, the leading component in credit expansion was again working capital credit, followed by consumption credit and investment credit. In analysis by debtor category, the major beneficiaries of credit expansion were finance companies, insurance, rural banks and individual borrowers. 10

13 Graph 2.14 Development of Fund vs BI Rate Economic liquidity showed accelerated growth with nominal expansion ahead of historical levels. In September 2008, M1 and M2 registered 19.6% and 16.9% growth 2, up from 12.5% and 12.6% in the preceding month. Accordingly, real M1 and M2 growth came to 7.4% and 4.7%, a sharp climb from the preceding month s levels of 0.7% and 0.8% (Graph 2.16). This is an indication of mounting economic activity. Alongside this, the M2 money multiplier slowed, due to high demand for cash outside banks (Graph 2.17). During September 2008, the M2 money multiplier moved lower due to the lingering effect of invigorated demand for cash in advance of the Eid-ul-Fitr religious festivities and the extended holiday season. This is explained by the pace of economic activity requiring availability of cash for transactions. The Capital Market Graph 2.15 Development of Fund vs Credit Graph 2.16 Real Growth of Riil M1 dan M2 Unabated pressures on global financial markets have borne down on the IDX. The bursting of the global financial market bubble and soaring credit risks have ushered in a liquidity crunch on financial markets around the world. Compounding this, expectations of an improvement in the US economy have set off a round of capital reversals, with capital flowing back from various parts of the world to the US. This has led to significant strengthening of the US dollar against all world currencies. In response to this capital reversal, the IDX Composite Index has undergone steep correction, plunging to 1, In a similar development, market capitalisation also fell by a significant Rp 453 trillion to the end-october 2008 position of Rp 1,000.7 trillion. Following an upturn in global situation after US Fed moved to cut the Fed Funds rate by a further 50 bps to 1%, the IDX rebounded with positive momentum. The turnaround in the IDX Composite Index was also bolstered by various Government actions to anticipate of further crisis developments and general improvement in domestic market prices. As a result, the IDX index closed October 2008 at 1,256.7, down 31.4% (mtm) for the month (Graph 2.18). Policy factors prevented the IDX from further decline. Actions taken by the stock exchange authority included a ban on short selling, suspension of trading and lower limit autorejection. Taken together, this prevented further losses on the IDX. The October ban on short selling was aimed at curbing speculation on selling trades amid a general decline in 2 Calculated against current inflation. 11

14 prices. In a similar vein, trading was suspended from 8 to 13 October 2008 in an effort to allow investors time to think rationally amid the financial market turmoil. The IDX also extended the suspension for several listed companies that were at risk of bringing down the performance of the IDX Composite as a whole. When the exchange reopened, the IDX imposed a 10% lower limit auto rejection to cap IDX index losses. The IDX then followed with the launching of asymmetric auto rejection (20% upper limit and 10% lower limit). In addition to these policies, the Government issued a new regulation to streamline buyback and called on SOEs to buy back their shares. Despite posting a substantial net sale midway 3 through the month under review, foreign investors recorded an overall net purchase for October That month, foreigners booked a net purchase of Rp 4.3 trillion (Graph 2.19). Consistent with this performance, data from the Indonesian Securities Depository (KSEI) for October 2008 recorded an increase in foreign ownership to 64.13% from 62.27% in September Despite the net purchase dominated by foreign investors, confidence waned on the market as demonstrated by the fall in market turnover from the normal Rp 4-5 trillion average to Rp 2.7 trillion per day. At the same time, mounting global factors bore down with increasing intensity on the government securities market. Amid quite strong fundamentals as reflected in the onset of decline in inflation expectations and a solid fiscal position, the global financial market turmoil resulted in a surge in government securities yield on all tenors. In fact, the disparity between selling and buying pressures prevented price formation for government securities in some series. Yield on government securities for all tenors averaged 17.14% (end of period), up 432 bps from the end- September 2008 position (Graph 2.20). Accordingly, spread between high and low yield for the 2008 period widened to 12.23%. The declining performance of government securities resulted not only from heightened external risks and weakening of the exchange rate, but was also consistent with escalating emerging market risk. Increased emerging market risk was reflected in various indicators presented in the IMF s October 2008 Global Stability Financial Report (GSFR). In a similar vein, Indonesia s EMBIG climbed significantly. 3 By 30 October 2008, foreign investor net selling had reached Rp 71 billion, but by 31 October 2008, foreigners had recorded a net purchase of Rp 4.14 trillion. Graph 2.17 Development of M2 Money Multipplier Graph 2.18 Jakarta Composite Index (JSX) and BI Rate Graph 2.19 Stock Foreign Net Buying 12

15 Graph 2.20 Development Yield SUN This eventually undermined the confidence of market actors, a development reflected in the thin volume and frequency of trading. Total government securities trading in October 2008 came to Rp 89 trillion or Rp 45 trillion down from the September 2008 position. At the same time, frequency of government securities trading averaged 213 transactions during October 2008, a drop from 238 in September 2008 (Graph 2.21). Concerning ownership proportion, foreign investors booked a net sale of Rp 12.7 trillion (Graph 2.22). Foreigners cut back their holdings mainly in short-term and long-term government securities, while medium-term holdings were largely stable. On the mutual funds market, NAV maintained downward movement tracking performance in underlying assets. As expected with the financial market turmoil, funds based on government securities and stocks have come under heavy pressure. In estimates by some analysts, NAV fell from Rp 86.1 trillion at end-september 2008 to about Rp 75.0 trillion in October To ease pressure on the mutual funds market, the Government will introduce protected funds in a new scheme for portfolios of long-term securities held to maturity. Graph 2.21 Volume and Frequency Government Securities Transaction Graph 2.22 Government Securities Trading Activities in November

16 Condition of the Banking System In the banking sector, performance remains sound (Table 2.2). Key indicators such as the CAR, NPLs and NOP have held their ground amid the market turbulence. Net interest income (NII) was stable in September 2008 at Rp 9.3 trillion, similar to the preceding month, while nonperforming loans (NPLs) were the same as one month earlier at 3.9% (gross) and 1.4% (net). Concerning capital levels, the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) strengthened from the previous month to 16.5%. Return on Assets (ROA) was stable in comparison to the preceding month, unchanged at 2.6%. The onset of more relaxed liquidity in the banking industry also affords banks greater room for manoeuvre in conducting business. Credit expansion was again generally stable at 34.6% with credit risk at subdued levels. Despite this, it is necessary to keep a close watch on future credit risk. Main Indicators Table 2.2 Main Indicators of Banking System Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Aset (T Rp) 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,122.6 Deposits (T Rp) 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,601.4 Credit (T Rp) , , , , , , , , , , ,287.4 LDR (%) NPLs Gross (%) NPLs Net (%) CAR (%) NIM (%)

17 III. MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE Following a comprehensive evaluation of the inflation trend and developments in the economy and financial sector at home and abroad, on 6 November 2008 the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at 9.5%. Faced with the continuing global financial turbulence and the slowdown taking hold in the world economy, Bank Indonesia sees the importance of maintaining an appropriate monetary policy to achieve equilibrium between economic growth and safeguarding of monetary stability. Although domestic inflationary pressure has begun to ease, the inflation rate remains quite high at 11.77% (yoy). Allowing for the various risks and inflationary pressure expected last until end of year, Bank Indonesia forecasts CPI inflation at end-2008 in the 11.5%-12.5% (yoy) range before easing to 6.5%-7.5% in Concerning the exchange rate, Bank Indonesia is working continually to implement a rupiah stabilisation policy with the aim of avoiding excessive exchange rate movement. Bank Indonesia will optimise the use of all monetary policy instruments at its disposal, while coordinating efforts with the Government in monitoring global, regional and domestic events and developments in the global, regional and domestic economy in the drive to safeguard long-term economic stability. 15

18 Letest Indicators FINANCIAL SECTOR INTEREST RATE & STOCK One month SBI 1) Three month SBI 1) One month Deposit 2) Three month Deposit 2) One week JIBOR 2) JSX Indices 3) MONETARY AGGREGATES (billions Rp) Base Money M1(C+D) Currency (C) Demand Deposit (D) Broad Money (M2 = C+D+T) Quasi Money (T) Quasi Money (Rupiah) Time Deposit Saving Deposit Foreign Currency Deposit Broad Money Rupiah Claim on Business Sector Credit by DMBs Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct ,359,206 2,643,487 2,688,332 2,745,826 2,627,251 2,721,944 2,447,299 2,304,516 2,444,349 2,349,105 2,304,508 2,165,943 1,832,507 1,256, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,563-1,512,756 1,530,145 1,556,200 1,643,203 1,588,962 1,596,090 1,586,795 1,608,874 1,636,383 1,699,480 1,679,020 1,675,430 1,768,250-1,101,475 1,115,149 1,131,765 1,182,361 1,168,664 1,184,763 1,167,049 1,181,846 1,197,839 1,232,772 1,220,641 1,222,985 1,276, , , , , , , , , , , , ,949 1,033, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,674-1,295,344 1,311,511 1,337,472 1,427,296 1,370,986 1,362,167 1,359,971 1,381,500 1,401,752 1,448,725 1,424,303 1,425,394 1,525, , ,837 1,009,712 1,040,996 1,026,218 1,040,616 1,075,500 1,102,596 1,137,143 1,189,100 1,206,458 1,246,282 1,286, , , , , , ,323 1,029,172 1,054,747 1,089,268 1,142,120 1,159,983 1,198,991 1,239,501 - P R IC E S CPI - monthly (%, mtm) CPI - 1 year (%, yoy) EXTERNAL SECTOR Rp/USD (endperiod,midrate) Non oil/gas Export (f.o.b, million USD) 4) Non oil/gas Import (c$f, million USD) 4) Net International Reserve (million USD) QUARTERLY INDICATOR Real GDP Growth (% y-o-y) Consumption Investment Changes in Stocks Export Import 9,137 9,103 9,376 9,419 9,291 9,051 9,217 9,234 9,318 9,225 9,118 9,153 9,378 10,995 7,561 8,125 7,916 8,434 8,957 8,356 9,091 8,572 9,589 9,719 9, ,853 6,015 6,799 5,856 7,826 7,419 7,980 8,983 8,362 8,474 9, * 2008 Tw.IV Total Tw.I Tw.II Tw.III * Provisional Figures * Using 2000 base year (BPS-Statistic Indonesia) 1) end of week 2) weighted average 3) end period closing 4) closed file Sources : Bank Indonesia, except stock market data (BAPEPAM), CPI, export/import and GDP (BPS) 16