PSG WOODHILL JUNIE/JUNE 2014

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Meredith Fleming
5 years ago
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2014 DIE JAAR SOVER In ons Desember/Januarie uitgawe van ons nuusbrief het ons die 2013 jaar wat was en sommige van die faktore wat die ekonomie en beurs geraak het, bespreek.

Desember. Die beurs open in Januarie op 46 590 met skeptiese vooruitsigte vir die jaar wat voorlê. Die beurs het teruggetrek in hierdie maand soos ons verwag het en sluit af op 45 132 punte.

1 2014 DIE JAAR SOVER In ons Desember/Januarie uitgawe van ons nuusbrief het ons die 2013 jaar wat was en sommige van die faktore wat die ekonomie en beurs geraak het, bespreek. Dit is nou ses maande later en ons wil graag kyk wat die afgelope halfjaar gebeur het, asook wat gebeur het met sekere aandeelkeuses wat ons gemaak het. INHOUD Die jaar sover 2. How familiarity breeds comfort 3. PSG Wealth Solutions Funds an overview (part 1) Januarie Ons het die nuwe jaar met bietjie onsekerheid ingegaan nadat die Johannesburg Effektebeurs n aggressiewe lopie van punte gehad het in Desember. Die beurs open in Januarie op met skeptiese vooruitsigte vir die jaar wat voorlê. Die beurs het teruggetrek in hierdie maand soos ons verwag het en sluit af op punte. Ons aandeelkeuse vir die maand was Sasol wat ons rondom R 520 per aandeel ingekoop het. Teen einde Mei se pryse staan dit op R 596 per aandeel wat ons los met n 14.62% groei tot dusver. Februarie Die maand van rooi rose en sjokolades was omtrent spesiaal vir die beleggers wat in die begin van Februarie hul kapitaal belê het in die Top40 aandele. Die Top40-indeks het van punte versterk na punte. Ons aandeelkeuse vir die maand was Woolworths, wat ons aangekoop het rondom die R 60 vlak. As ons dit vergelyk die huidige pryse, wys dit groei van meer as 25% vir die tydperk. Aan die einde van Februarie sluit die JEB op Maart Pinnacle Holdings Ek glo nie ek hoef meer as dit te sê om n koue rilling langs enige van hul aandeelhouers se rugstring af te jaag nie. Op 25 Maart kondig Pinnacle aan dat een van hul direkteure, Mnr Tshivase, gearresteer is oor hy, volgens aantuigings probeer het om n lid van die Suid-Afrikaanse polisiediens om te koop met die doel om n staatskontrak te wen vir die maatskappy. Na die aankondiging van die insident, het Pinnacle se aandeelprys van R geval na R in slegs twee dae; sedertdien is dit nog altyd onder druk. Ons aandeelkeuse vir die maand was Standard Bank ons het die aandeel gekoop

rondom R 122 per aandeel. Die huidige pryse draai rondom R 144 per aandeel, wat groei van 15.6% in slegs drie maande beteken. Die JEB sluit Maart af op 47 771 punte.

Dit was n relatiewe stil maand weens die groot hoeveelheid onsekerheid rondom die politiese welstand in Suid-Afrika en slegs twee weke om besigheid te doen as gevolg van al die vakansiedae.

2 rondom R 122 per aandeel. Die huidige pryse draai rondom R 144 per aandeel, wat groei van 15.6% in slegs drie maande beteken. Die JEB sluit Maart af op punte. April In April was almal se aandag meer gevestig op die plakkate teen die lamppale as op die mark. Dit was n relatiewe stil maand weens die groot hoeveelheid onsekerheid rondom die politiese welstand in Suid-Afrika en slegs twee weke om besigheid te doen as gevolg van al die vakansiedae. Sonder enige groot verwagtinge het die beurs steeds 765 punte gedurende die maand verstewig tot punte. Mei Na die verkiesing en al die vakansie dae wat in Mei afgehandel was, kon mens uiteindelik weer konsentreer op dit wat geld maak en nie geld kos nie. Ons aandeelkeuses vir die maand was DBXUS en Coronation Fund Managers wat ons rondom R en R onderskeidelik gekoop het. Huidiglik verhandel hierdie aandele teen n winspersentasie van 4.8% en 4.5% vir minder as n maand. Verder was dit n opwindende maand waar die JEB vir die eerste keer bo punte gesluit het. Met die JEB wat so hoog is, maak dit dinge regtig moeilik vir nuwe beleggers en laat dit mens regtig wonder of die stelling sell in May and go away hierdie jaar van toepassing gaan wees Junie en vooruitsigte Daar is baie gemengde gevoelens as dit kom by die vooruitsigte vir die ses maande wat kom. Ons kristalbal is buite werking maar is vas oortuig dat dit baie uitdagend gaan wees. Vrae kom na vore soos hoe lank ons ekonomie nog plaaslike stakings kan dra; hoeveel keer kan Gill Marcus en haar span die rentekoerse dieselfde hou? Al wat ons kan doen is om elke dag te vat soos dit kom, goeie aandeelkeuses maak soos die afgelope ses maande en voort te bou op wat ons nou het. Dit is ook belangrik om te onthou dat as ons terugkyk na die laaste drie jaar, die mark werklik eers begin presteer het in die laaste gedeelte van die jaar. - One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute - William Feather

3 HOW FAMILIARITY BREEDS COMFORT People are adverse to change, we stick to what we know which means that we are naturally drawn towards the familiar and in fact, most of our decisions are underpinned by this trait. Think back to the last car you bought, the brand of clothing you wear or the last restaurant you visited and the specific dish you ordered, chances are that you would have stuck to the same make of car you have been driving for the last ten years, bought the same brand of clothing and gone to same restaurant and ordered the same meal that you always do. Why? Because you know what you are going to get, i.e. you are familiar with it and there is a low probability of being disappointed. I am not implying that there is something wrong with having personal preferences, but I want to explore the potential pitfalls of how familiarity can breed a false sense of comfort, especially when it comes to financial planning decisions. Companies use advertising to create touch points with customers in order to create awareness which hopefully leads to familiarity. As an example, when a new asset manager launches their funds to the public they spend the majority of their time getting the message out through presentations and face-to-face meetings. The purpose of spending time on the ground is to familiarize investors with their offering. Only once the face-to-face marketing is done will the company launch print, television or radio campaigns. The reason why this approach works is because you might have the best television, radio or print ads but if you are deemed unfamiliar by investors or financial advisors the ad campaigns alone will not breed comfort. Another method used to create familiarity is repetition. Some companies might not have a strong brand or value proposition so they revert to repetition to create a sense of familiarity with customers. A good example of this is the company that advertises their investment product during Super Rugby halftime breaks (I am referring to the one that guarantees 19.5% return per annum). Every week we are exposed to this ad and every time we see it our brain will make a connection to the previous times and a false sense of comfort could be created. So beware of repetition. Your employment creates familiarity which in turn can create a false sense of comfort. It is very rare that employees who invest all their net worth in the business they work for have it turn out to be a Google or Microsoft story, these business unfortunately are exceptions to the rule. Remember there is a material difference between being familiar with a business and investing in that business, these decisions need to be kept and dealt with separately.

4 In conclusion, I want to warn investors against the dangers of becoming comfortable just because a product or service provider seems familiar. As humans, our brains are conditioned to spot things that seem familiar to us and our brain will even play tricks on us to force connections which might not be there, to create a false sense of comfort. Advertisers, product and service providers are well aware of this and use this to their advantage so beware and remain cautious, a hint of scepticism is most welcome when it comes to your financial planning decisions. Therefore next time when you get a warm fuzzy feeling in the bottom of your stomach after recognizing a product, please take a minute to consider whether familiarity might be breeding a false sense of comfort. Vir weeklikse aandeelwenke, gaan luister gerus na Derik op Die videos is ook beskikbaar op Ons beplan om in die volgende paar maande weer n aanbieding of twee te hou, ons sal u op hoogte hou van datums en onderwerpe. Verder is ons beskikbaar vir enige navrae of net om te gesels oor die markte.

5 PSG WEALTH SOLUTIONS AN OVERVIEW The PSG Wealth Solutions Funds are PSG s multimanager funds. Multi-manager funds consist of multiple specialised funds. Each specialised fund may invest across different sectors and markets, or have managers investing in the same asset class, but have different investment styles. For example, large cap value fund versus large cap growth fund. This theory is founded on the premise that not all investment managers are good in all markets and that not all managers are successful at all times. Spreading the investment capital across different asset classes or markets allows the investor to achieve the necessary diversification, reducing risk without sacrificing the return. So, instead of having one fund that is invested across different sectors, you have one fund that is invested across different funds. PSG Wealth has a number of multi-manager funds, which we will discuss in more detail over the next two months. In this month s newsletter, we will start off with the more conservative to moderately conservative funds. The Enhanced Interest Solution The Income Solution Over the last 12 months, the Income Solution also delivered 5.7%, albeit at greater volatility relative to the Enhanced Interest Solution. The benchmark (SteFI 12 month Cash Deposit Rate) returned 5.56% over the same period. We expect the future rolling 24-month return to be roughly 2% more than the return of money market funds. Although the Enhanced Interest Solution outperformed the Income Solution on a riskadjusted basis, the required investment horizon for the Income Solution is at least two years while the horizon for the Enhanced Interest Solution is one month. It is important to remain aware that the Income Solution is not geared towards short-term cash flow requirements. The Enhanced Interest Solution also does not aim to generate returns via capital appreciation and will therefore lag alternatives (like the Income Solution) that do. The Enhanced Interest Solution returned 5.7%, while the average money market fund returned 5.2% for the last 12 months to end of March The futures market is currently pricing in further interest rate hikes for This enables the Solution to purchase instruments at more attractive forward rates than those that are available to traditional money market funds with shorter reaches within more restrictive mandates.

The Preserver Solution Over the last three years the Preserver Solution returned 11.7%. The CPI+3% benchmark returned 8.7% and the average low equity fund produced 9.9% over the same period.

Although the Solution now has almost 37% invested in equities (of which more than half is invested abroad), the solution remains extremely well diversified across local and offshore asset classes.

6 The Preserver Solution Over the last three years the Preserver Solution returned 11.7%. The CPI+3% benchmark returned 8.7% and the average low equity fund produced 9.9% over the same period. Even with the market volatility in March, the Preserver Solution still managed to generate a return of 1.06% for the month. Although the Solution now has almost 37% invested in equities (of which more than half is invested abroad), the solution remains extremely well diversified across local and offshore asset classes. Ons Dienste - Aandeelverhandeling - Portefeuljebestuur - Aftreebeplanning - Beleggingsadvies - Lewensversekering - Besigheidsversekering Dienste gebied deur ons korttermynversekering vennoot, PSG Meesterplan - Persoonlike versekering - Kommersiële versekering - Lugvaartversekering Source: PSG Wealth Quarterly Investment Update PSG Woodhill Global House, 296 Glenwood Weg Pretoria t /5 f derik.prinsloo@psg.co.za marina.prinsloo@psg.co.za chris.davies@psg.co.za - Geniet die naweek se Springbok rugby hoop almal bly lekker warm!

PSG KONSULT WOODHILL MAART 2013

PSG KONSULT WOODHILL MAART 2013 PSG KONSULT WOODHILL GEMORSKOS IN SUID-AFRIKA Navorsing het getoon dat gemorskos net so verslawend as kokaien kan wees. Van vlamgeroosterde en vingerlekker kos tot 'n Mc-ietsie, studies toon dat 'n stygende