2 MAART 2011 PSG KONSULT
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1 2 MAART 2011 PSG KONSULT Marius Cornelissen Derik Prinsloo Martin Louw Magdeleen Cornelissen Gerda Swanepoel Melissa Janse van Rensburg (012)
2 1. ISLAM DEMOKRASIE OF DIKTATORS?
3 1. ISLAM DEMOKRASIE OF DIKTATORS?
4 - Tunisië, Egipte sukses - Libië, Bahrain bloedig - Jordanië, Saudi, Jemen & Iran volgende? - Bevolkings ontevrede met outokrasie - Hoë vlakke van armoede, jong bevolkings - Ware demokrasie of militere diktatorskappe? - Olie is die sleutel
5 SASOL
6 2. VOEDSEL
7 - Wêreldbevolking 7 miljard in Gaan klim na 9 miljard in Groei in Afrika en Suid Asië - Om almal te voed : Sal soveel kos moet produseer in 40 jaar as in voorafgaande 8000 jaar -Oor 40 jaar gaan: Inkomstes wereldwyd verdriedubbel Inkomstes in ontwikkelende lande vervierdubbel
8
9 SHOPRITE
10 3. VSA : SKEWE INKOMSTE VERDELING
11 VSA SKEWE WELVAARTS VERDELING
12 VSA : VERBRUIKER KRY SWAAR
13 VSA : RYKES REGEER DIE ARMES
14 VSA: HUISPRYSE - Belastingkrediete eindig : Daling in H Rentekrediete kan wegval - Pryse kan nog 20% daal
15 S&P 500 PE 13.6
16 INTERNASIONALE AANDELE Unilever Berkshire Hathaway Procter & Gamble Johnson & Johnson Pfizer Heineken Yum Brands Microsoft JP Morgan Chase Chevron Anheuser Busch Siemens Telefonica Coca Cola Wal-Mart Stores BMW Average P/E Forward P/E (1year)
17 4. KOMMODITEITE - YSTERERTS
18 KOMMODITEITE - KOPER
19 KOMMODITEITE : INFRASTRUKTUUR Infrastructure investment as % of GDP: China 9%, Europe 5%, US 2% 'Our infrastructure used to be the best, but our lead has slipped,' President Barack Obama said in his annual State of the Union speech to Congress. He cited the American Society of Civil Engineers, which gave US infrastructure a 'D' grade - one letter above failing - in 2009.
20 KOMMODITEITE : INFRASTRUKTUUR -1 uit 4 brue struktureel of funksioneel veroudered - Sal $2,2 Triljoen vat om dit tot B graad in 5 jaar te neem Over the next five years China will spend as much as RMB 3.5 trillion ($531 billion) on railway construction, RMB 750 billion ($113.8 billion) on rail rolling stock, RMB trillion ($ billion) on highways, RMB billion ($ billion) on airports, and RMB 900 billion ($136.6 billion) on ports.
21 Kumba Iron Ore
22 5. RAND
23 SUID-AFRIKA: INFLASIE
24 SUID-AFRIKA: BEGROTINGSTEKORT
25 SUID-AFRIKA: 10 Jaar Staatseffekte
26 SUID-AFRIKA : JSE vs Dow Jones
27 6. Goud 2007 Percentage of Total 2009 Percentage of Total Identifiable Investment Industrial and Dental Jewellery Consumption Identifiable Investment Industrial and Dental Jewellery Consumption 11
28 Goudprys vs Harmony
29 Pan Af vs Goudprys
30 7. KONSTRUKSIE Figure 1 Real value of recorded building plans passed by larger municipalities
31 KONSTRUKSIE Recorded building plans passed by larger municipalities at current prices: January to December 2009 versus January to December 2010 Current Prices Jan Dec 2009 Jan Dec 2010 Difference % Change R 000 R 000 R 000 Residential % Non -Residential % Additions ,2 Total ,9 Buildings reported as completed to larger municipalities at current prices: January to December 2009 versus January to December 2010 Current Prices Jan Dec 2009 Jan Dec 2010 Difference % Change R 000 R 000 R 000 Residential ,6 Non -Residential ,6 Additions ,5 Total ,8
32 7. KONSTRUKSIE
33 7. KONSTRUKSIE
34 7. KONSTRUKSIE
35 8. EURO HOOFSTUK 2
36 EURO - IERLAND : Huispryse in Dublin +500% Huurinkomste : 1% ( verdien 833 per maand Sedert 2000 lenings aan konstruksie en spekulasie op van 8% van lenings (Euro norm) na 28% Teen 2007 leen banke 40% meer aan ontwikkelaars as aan die totale Ierse bevolking in 2000 Meer as 20% van werkers in konstruksiebedryf Bou in 2007 ongeveer 50% soveel nuwe huise as Engeland (Bevolking 15 x groter) Borrel bars
37 EURO - IERLAND Ongeveer te veel huise in Ierland Bevolking 4,4 miljoen Ekwivalent in VSA sou wees 15 miljoen te veel Ierse banke moes 86 miljard leen om te oorleef by Europese Sentrale bank BBP daal met 11%, werkloosheid van 3% na 12%, staatsskuld van 30% na 125% (2014) Teen 6% rente, koste 10% van nasionale inkomste (rente) ECB en IMF dink oplossing is nog skuld Ook sterk terugsny programme (verdere pyn) Gaan nie so kan aanhou nie Verkiesing
38 EURO - IERLAND
39 EURO - Slot Wereld het mal geraak met skuld ECB bang vir gevolge as skuld nie betaal of slegs gedeeltelik betaal word Ierse las raak te swaar Portugal, Griekeland, Spanje? Rentekoerse wereldwyd kan opgaan
40 EURO vs RENTE vs VOORKEURAANDELE AS % VAN DIE PRIMA RENTEKOERS SBPP 73% FSRP 75% ABLP 80% PGFP 87% SHFF 87%
41 9. ENERGIE International Energy Agency Forecasts
42 ENERGIE
43 ENERGIE
44 EXXARO
45 10. SA AANDELE IS DUUR
46 AANDELE MET LAE PE s Exxaro (9.8) - Redefine (9.2%) * Assore (9.8) - Tiger Brands (12.8) Pan Af (8.7) - Pioneer Foods (10.7)* Kumba Iron Ore (10.2) - MTN (14) & Vod (12) Anglo en Bil (11.7) - Coronation (11.9) Grindrod (8.6) - Firstrand (12.2) Imperial (9) - MMI Holding (7.1) PPC (12) - Investec (11.4) Cashbuild (12) - Steinhoff (9.6) Lewis (10.3) - Reunert (11.2)
47 BAIE DANKIE LEKKER EET
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