PSG KONSULT WOODHILL JANUARIE 2013
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1 DIE JAAR WAT WAS Ek het dit goed gedink om in die eerste nuusbrief van die jaar terug te kyk na van die stories wat uitgestaan het in Hier volg 'n vinnige opsomming oor die gebeure asook wat ons in die nuwe jaar kan verwag. Die grootste storie was ongetwyfeld die onrus in die mynbou sektor. Dit het in Februarie verlede jaar begin met 'n onwettige staking by Impala se platinummyne en het kookpunt bereik met die Marikana-slagting, voordat die jaar in mynbou afgesluit is met die aankondiging van die verdeling van Gold Fields se bates. Dit het alles die plaaslike mynboutoneel verander en verdere disinvestering in die plaaslike mynbou bedryf is blykbaar ons voorland. Ek het voorheen al genoem dat BHP Billiton geen plaaslike ontwikkelingsprojekte op die oomblik het nie. Ons verwag dat AngloGold Ashanti en later Harmony dieselfde padjie as Gold Fields sal volg. Ons voel dat Platinum die enigste sterk oorblywende mynbou sektor is. Platinum is uniek want ons het sowat 80% van die wêreld reserwes. Dit verseker 'n toekoms vir plaaslike platinummyne. It is not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you and how many generations you keep it for INHOUD 1. Die jaar wat was 2. A Few Stock Picks Ons dienste: - Holistiese finansiële- en beleggingsbeplanning - Beplanning vir en by aftrede - Implementering van beleggingsvoorstelle - Portefeuljebestuur - Analise van bestaande beleggingsportefeuljes - Werknemersvoordelepakkette - Aandelemakelaarsdienste -Lewensversekering, siekte en ongeskiktheidsdekking - Robert Kiyosaki
2 Die platinumsektor: Mei Des 2012 Tekens is reeds daar dat die sentiment effens gedraai het wat die toekomstige belêbaarheid van die plaaslike platinumsektor betref. Sable Platinum, IvanPlats en Platinum Group Metals samel dollars in vir toekomstige mynbou aktiwiteite in die bosveld kompleks. Die platinumoorskot, wat op 'n stadium verlede jaar op pad was na 'n geraamde onse, sal na raming in 'n merkwaardige tekort van onse vanjaar verander, met Suid Afrika se produksie sowat onse minder. Anglo American Platinum sal ook werk maak van sy belofte om sy myne te optimaliseer, wat baie mense as 'n vermindering van produksie vertolk. Lonmin het vroeër die week bo verwagte resultate gerapporteer vir die kwartaal geëindig Desember 2012, waar hulle platinum verkope 16,7% hoër was as die diensooreenkomstige periode verlede jaar. Dit het gemaak dat die aandeel prys vir twee opeenvolgende dae met meer as 10% gestyg het. Alles in ag geneem, is ons van mening dat die platinum sektor 'n plek is wat vir beleggers belofte kan inhou.
3 Indien u nie gemaklik daarmee is om van die platinummyne se aandele self te besit nie, kan u gerus na die Platinumbeursverhandelde-nota kyk (NewWave Platinum:NEWPLT) Die platinum-beursverhandelde-nota volg platinum se randprys. Met al die probleme in die plaaslike platinumsektor is die gevolg 'n vermindering van produksie. 'n Deel van die verlore produksie word opgemaak deur die herverwerking van ou mynhope. Met die platinummyne wat steeds sukkel en 'n hersiening van Anglo Platinum wat nog moet kom, gaan ons nie binnekort weer by volle produksie wees nie. Dan is daar ook die beskeie maar wêreldwye herstel wat in ag geneem moet word. NewWave Platinum: Aug Feb 2013 'n Jaar gelede was daar vrese van ontbindings, ineenstortings en wanbetalings in Europa. Tog het hulle op die een of ander manier oorleef en na die Griekse verkiesing was dit nie meer in die nuus nie. Europa en die eurogebied is allermins in orde, maar hulle maak stadig vordering wat waarskynlik tot 'n sterker Europa sal lei wanneer hulle uiteindelik ontslae is van hul yslike skuldlas. Daar sal nog eurogebied nuus vanjaar wees en lank daarna ook, maar die ineenstorting van Europa is vir eers op die agtergrond.
4 Die groot storie van 2012 waaroor daar nie te veel berig is nie, is dat die bulmark stadig maar seker al hoe nader gekom het. Ons het 2012 vol vrees begin. Na 'n nuwe hoogtepunt vir die JSE in Januarie het dinge skielik baie stil geraak voordat dit in die laaste ses maande weer begin beweeg het. Die bul is nog jonk, maar ek verwag beslis dat hy vanjaar sal voortgaan. FTSE/JSE Algehele Indeks: Jan Jan 2013
5 A FEW STOCK PICKS Ek het dit goed gedink om elke maand 'n addisionele artikel in te sluit vanaf 'n onafhanklike analis. Die analiste wat ek gaan gebruik sal onder meer bestaan uit top batebestuurders by maatskappye soos Allan Gray, Investec, Coronation, PSG Asset Management, Stanlib, Rand Merchant Bank en Nedbank. Hier volg 'n artikel wat Shaun van der Berg onlangs geskryf het. We are almost at the end of the month of January and most people are still feeling optimistic about the year ahead. Some people would have written off 2012 as a learning experience by starting over again with a clean slate. It is like hitting the reset button on your computer when a program hangs. It is a pity that we could not do the same with the global economic situation. What is helping support our current level of optimism is the tell-tale sign of improved earnings from U.S. corporates, as well as growth from the world s second largest economy. Compared to last year, the situation in Europe also seems to be improving, although they are not out of the woods as yet. During 2013 the challenge for longer-term investors will be to find suitable investment opportunities that still offer real returns with reasonable risk levels, despite the benchmark index trading near record levels. Lower commodity prices and labour unrest has caused the mining sector to underperform relative to the JSE Overall Index. One quality resource share that we like and may offer an opportunity is BHP Billiton (JSE code: BIL). Although the share is fairly valued as it is trading on a rolling PE of 11.6 times; from a technical point of view it has been trading within a narrow down channel and nearing oversold territory. We expect a breakout above the upper resistance trend line. A good entry level is around R295. Wait for a pullback in the market before you enter the trade. BHP Billiton: Jan Jan 2013
6 The financial and industrial sector is trading in overbought territory but is still outperforming relative to the JSE Overall Index (another name for the FTSE/JSE All Share Index). Over the past week, some retailers released their trading statements, with Shoprite and Mr Price disappointing the market and causing investors to sell and the market to drop. Woolies (JSE code: WHL), on the other hand did beat market expectations and the share price initially did rally on its trading update before pulling back again. Fundamentally, most of these retailers are overvalued and profit taking is justified. Technically, the share price of Woolies has tested the long term support trend line, while also trading in oversold territory. We expect a bounce from these levels soon. Woolworths Jan 2012 Jan 2013 While the popping of champagne corks on New Year s Eve may be a distant memory, traders can still feel that effervescent optimism when looking at the possibility of these two trades. Ons wil u vriendelik uitnooi na n aanbieding wat ons gaan hou op 19 Februarie 2013 hier by ons nuwe kantore. Beperkte plekke beskikbaar, kontak ons om u plek te bespreek. Ons gaan die volgende bespreek: Oorsig van die markte, sektore wat kan uitblink in 2013 en spesifieke aandeelkeuses. PSG Konsult Woodhill Global House, 296 Glenwood Weg Pretoria tel /5 faks derikp@psgkonsult.co.za marina.prinsloo@psgkonsult.co.za PSG Konsult Financial Planning in an authorised financial services provider. /PSG Konsult Finansiële Beplanning is 'n goedgekeurde finansiële diensteverskaffer.
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