Maandelikse Beleggingsverslag: Kruger Stanlib Gebalanseerde Fonds van Fondse

Transcription

1 Maandelikse Beleggingsverslag: Kruger Stanlib Gebalanseerde Fonds van Fondse OCTOBER 2016

2 Kruger Internasionaal Ekonomiese Kommentaar Internasionaal Alhoewel ekonomiese data oor die algemeen meer positief was in Oktober, het die opbou na die Amerikaanse verkiesing en spesifiek die aanduidings dat dit in n kop-aan-kop wedren sou ontaard, beleggers ontsenu. Met die breek van die nuus oor die totaal onverwagte Trump triomf ten tye van hierdie skrywe, het markte aanvanklik heftig en wisselvallig gereageer totdat dit gestabiliseer en skerp begin styg het. Terwyl onsekerheid voortduur, blyk dit of markte vir nou op die positiewe aspekte in Donald Trump se aanvaardingstoespraak konsentreer soos sy hernude versekering tov die heropbou van Amerika se infrastruktuur. Dit impliseer ekonomiese groei wat veral nywerheids- en infrastruktuuraandele bevoordeel en inflasie kan laat styg. In reaksie hierop het koerse op staatseffekte sterk begin styg. Ekonomiese data vir Oktober was matig positief tov Amerikaanse en Britse BBP, PMI-metings, besigheidsvertroue en huisverkope. Amerikaanse indiensnemingsyfers het egter effens teleurgestel met die skepping van slegs nuwe werksgeleenthede teenoor die verwagte maar September se syfers is opwaarts aangepas na terwyl die werkloosheidsyfer verbeter het van 5.0% tot 4.9%. Uurlikse lone het met n stewige 2.8% joj gestyg. Groeivooruitsigte vir opkomende lande bly uiteenlopend. Die einde van die rapporteringseisoen vir die derde kwartaal is in sig en die verwagting is dat S&P500 maatskappye die eerste positiewe winsgroei in 5 kwartale kan aanteken. Aandelemarkte het deur die bank veld verloor in Oktober met die MSCI Alle Lande wat met -2.99% (+5.39% jtd) gedaal het, Dow Jones-indeks -0.79% (+6.36% jtd), S&P % (+5.87% jtd), en MSCI Opkomende Markte-indekse -0.94% (+9.84% jtd) alles in Amerikaanse dollars. Plaaslik Alhoewel n paar groen lote onlangs op die plaaslike ekonomiese horison verskyn het bly die ekonomie in n afwaartse spiraal soos blyk uit Minister Pravin Gordhan se onlangse medium termyn begroting. Oorhoofs het die gekonsolideerde geteikende tekort op die nasionale begroting vir die heersende fiskale jaar met 0.2% tot 3.4% van BBP gestyg te wyte aan n tekort aan inkomste. Om hierdie tekort te stabiliseer en om te draai tot n geteikende mikpunt van 3.1% van BBP word bykomende regstellende fiskale maatreëls ter waarde van R23 biljoen benodig in die 2017/18 fiskale jaar. Reaksie deur die aanslag agentskappe was gemeng S&P beskou die begroting as neutraal maar sou graag meer strukturele hervorming vir veral staatsmaatskappye wou sien terwyl Fitch erkenning gee vir die betekenisvolle besparingsmaatreëls maar meen dat dit nie genoeg is om, gegewe die swak ekonomie, die styging in die begrotingstekort te neutraliseer nie. Voorts het die onlangse politieke onstuimigheid rondom die bedrogklagte teen gerespekteerde Finansminister Pravin Gordhan, die publieke beskermer se ondersoek oor staatskaping en die slepende studente onrus die klimaat verder vertroebel en die fokus weer skerp verskuif na die hersiening van SA se aanslag as n beleggingsbestemming in Desember. Onder die omstandighede het die rand veerkragtig vertoon. Gegewe die heersende ekonomiese omstandighede en die gaping tussen ontleders se winsverwagtings en werklike winste, bly die plaaslike mark fundamenteel en tegnies duur. In ooreenstemming met die oorsese markte het die FTSE JSE Algehele-indeks met -2.49% (+2.21% jtd) in Oktober gedaal. Al die Kruger-portefeuljes het ook gedaal Buigsaam -3.11% (+1.14% jtd), Gebalanseerd -2.37% (+0.91% jtd), Voorsorg -1.37% (+1.96% jtd) en die Wêreld-portefeulje met -3.71% (-13.31% jtd). Page 1

3 Prestasie Tabel Snapshot of Returns As of Date: 2016/10/31 Data Point: Return Currency: South African Rand 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years SA CPI +5% All returns refer to A-class returns and returns for longer than 12 months are annualised. Actual month-on-month CPI figures are used in the calculations, typically with a one-month lag. Rollende 12 maande prestasie Rolling Returns Time Period: 2011/11/01 to 2016/10/31 Currency: South African Rand Rolling Window: 1 Year 1 Month shift Return Page 2

4 Maandelikse Prestasie Tabel - Monthly Returns Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Risiko Analise Drawdown Time Period: 2009/11/01 to 2016/10/ FTSE/JSE All Share TR ZAR Page 3

5 Prestasie relatief tot kompetisie Performance Relative to Peer Group As of Date: 2016/10/31 Peer Group (5-95%): Open End Funds - ASISA Sector (South Africa) - (ASISA) South African MA Medium Equity Return Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this document are recorded and expressed in good faith and in reliance on sources believed to be credible. No representation, warranty, undertaking or guarantee of whatever nature is given on the accuracy and/or completeness of such information or the correctness of such opinions. Analytics will have no liability of whatever nature and however arising in respect of any claim, damages, loss or expenses suffered directly or indirectly by the investor acting on the information contained in this document. Furthermore, due to the fact that Analytics does not act as your financial advisor, we have not conducted a financial needs analysis and will rely on the needs analysis conducted by your financial advisor. We recommend that you take particular care to consider whether any advice contained in this document is appropriate given your objectives, financial situation and particular needs in view of the fact that there may be limitations on the appropriateness of the advice provided. No guarantee of investment performance or capital protection should be inferred from any of the information contained in this document. Analytics is an authorised financial services provider. Collective investments are generally medium to long-term investments. The value of units may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Collective investments are calculated on a net asset value basis, which is the total value of all assets in the portfolio including any income accrual and less any permissible deductions from the portfolio. Portfolio performance is calculated on a NAV to NAV basis and does not take any initial fees into account. Income is reinvested on the ex-dividend date. The source is Morningstar. Actual investment performance will differ based on the initial fees applicable and the actual investment date. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available from the manager/scheme. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs. Different classes of units apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees and charges. Forward pricing is used. Fluctuations or movements in exchange rates may cause the value of underlying international investments to go up or down. The following charges are levied against the portfolio: Brokerage, auditor s fees, bank charges and trustee fees. A fund of funds unit trust only invests in other unit trusts, which levy their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for these funds. Company scheme: Liberty and Kruger International are respectively full and affiliate members of the Association for Savings & Investment SA (ASISA). STANLIB is a member of the Liberty group of companies. Page 4