Monday, August 15, 2016

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1 On Tap 8:30 a.m. Aug Empire State Manufacturing Survey Mfg Idx (previous 0.55), Employment Idx (previous -4.40), New Orders Idx (previous -1.82), Prices Received (previous 1.10) 10:00 a.m. Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Housing Mkt Idx (previous 59) 4:00 p.m. Jun Treasury International Capital Data Recent Analyst Ratings Actions There are no analyst ratings changes. SNAPSHOT U.S. stock futures higher; dollar flat; 10-year Treasury yield 1.502%; Nymex $44.90; gold $ Watch for: Empire state manufacturing survey; no major earnings scheduled OPENING CALL Stocks and commodities mostly drifted higher Monday, with China leading gains on reports that a start date for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong trading link would soon be announced. Futures pointed to a 0.2% opening gain for the S&P 500. The U.S. index has inched up for six of the last seven weeks, and ended Friday at its second-best level in history. Disappointing retail sales data last week helped erode expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Fed-funds futures, used by investors to place bets on central bank policy, show a less than 45% probability of a rate rise by December, according to CME Group. That should continue to offer support to U.S. equities, analysts said, even at relatively high valuations. While dependence on central bank stimulus is not healthy or good, it should keep the show going, said Alastair Winter at Daniel Stewart. I think the U.S. equity market is going to be up and down in a range, he said, noting earnings have likely been through the worst, but economic growth is unlikely to support much more of a rally. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched up 0.3% in morning trade, led by a 1.4% rise in the auto sector. Shares of Peugeot and Volkswagen were up over 2%. Earlier, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.4%, led by shares of brokerages, after Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that the trading link could be announced as soon as this week and data showed mortgage lending drove China s new loan growth last month. EQUITIES Honeywell International is nearing a deal to acquire JDA Software Group, a maker of software that helps businesses manage their supply chains, according to a person familiar with the matter. The deal would value closely held JDA at around $3 billion, including debt, and is expected to be announced as soon as Monday, this person said. Reuters previously reported that Honeywell was in talks to buy JDA. Spokespeople for Honeywell and JDA declined to comment.

2 Private-equity firm TPG has agreed to buy cable-television providers RCN and Grande Communications for about $2.25 billion including debt, according to people familiar with the matter, in a bet that demand for new broadband services will fuel growth in the businesses. Google Capital, Alphabet s growth-equity investment fund, is taking a minority stake in the companies, which are currently owned by private-equity firm Abry Partners, some of the people said. The transactions could be announced Monday, they said. RCN provides cable, phone and internet service on the East Coast and in Chicago, while Grande specializes in such services in Texas. Business software provider Workday on Monday expects to announce a seven-year deal to use International Business Machine s cloud-computing services for some internal operations. Workday, which makes web-based human resources and finance software, will use IBM s SoftLayer cloud-computing service to test and develop new programs. Under the terms of the agreement, IBM will be Workday s primary provider of computing capacity for software development and testing, providing the majority of processing power needed for these activities. Previously, in this area, Workday used a mix of its own data centers and cloud-computing infrastructure from Amazon. Workday will continue to use Amazon for some of this work. The terms of the deal weren t disclosed. Real-estate investment trust MAA is nearing a deal to buy Post Properties for about $4 billion, bringing together two major apartment owners who have benefited from a boom in rental demand. Post investors are to get 0.71 share of new MAA stock for each share they own in a deal that could be announced Monday, people familiar with the matter said. On Friday, Post had a market valuation of $3.3 billion, while MAA s was nearly $8 billion. Shares of both companies have soared in recent years as investors have been drawn to their relatively rich payouts with interest rates at historic lows. FOREX The dollar was unchanged against the yen and the euro during Asian trade due to a lack of fresh trading cues and thin volume amid Japan s summer holiday season. The WSJ Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was up a slight 0.01% at The dollar weakened Friday against its rival currencies after U.S. retail sales among other data fueled speculation that the economy is not strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to raise short-term rates later this year. Even with strong jobs data earlier this month, which showed the economy added more jobs than expected in July, the dollar struggled to rise. There is a risk of a weaker dollar and a higher yen, said Minori Uchida at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

3 The dollar had little reaction to Japan s GDP data earlier Monday, in which the economy expanded an annualized 0.2% in the April-June quarter. That was weaker than a 2% expansion in the first three months of the year. Many shrugged off the data as the economy is expected to gain momentum, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe s cabinet in early August approved a Y28 trillion ($276 billion) stimulus package. Given a lack of fresh trading cues, investors are looking for any hints that the Fed could raise short-term rates, especially from Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen s speech at the central bank s Jackson Hole symposium Aug. 26. At 4.50am ET, USD/JPY was at , EUR/USD was at $ and GBP/USD was at $ BONDS The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 1.502% in European trading, compared with 1.515% Friday. Friday s retail data was significantly weaker than expected and Treasurys responded as you would have expected, said John Canavan at Stone and McCarthy Research Associates. I don t think you can make any specific call based on just Friday s figures, but taken alone they certainly don t argue for the Fed to be in any rush here. Federal-funds futures, which are used to place bets on central bank policy, showed Friday that investors and traders see a 6% likelihood of a rate increase at the Fed s September meeting and a 43% likelihood of an increase by December, according to CME Group. COMMODITIES Crude prices hit a one-month high Monday on hopes that the prolonged oil rout may drive major producers to reconsider a collective production cap. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.9% to $47.41 a barrel on London s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 0.9% at $44.90 a barrel. Prices have gained since Saudi Arabia energy minister Kahlid al-falih last week signalled his country was open to measures to stabilize the market which has been beleaguered by oversupply for two years. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is historically seen as the de facto leader of the oil cartel. The 14-member bloc is scheduled to meet at an informal gathering late next month. The idea of a production cap was pitched in April, but no agreement was reached, leading some analysts to doubt whether the September meeting will bear fruit. Arguably the chances of getting an output freeze in place now are less because the fundamentals of the oil market have improved of their own accord, said Julian Jessop at Capital Economics.

4 The market is already showing signs of rebalancing with non-opec supply growing more slowly and global demand picking up, Mr. Jessop said. Gold was trading higher at $1, in London. Other Top Stories Of The Day Democrats Brace for More Election Leaks Two websites whose operators are believed to have ties to the Russian government now serve as portals for leaking sensitive information about the Democratic Party and its supporters. Japan s Economic Growth Nearly Stalls Japanese growth was almost flat in the April-June quarter, despite massive government spending and easy central bank policy. NBC s Ratings for Rio Olympics Fall Behind London Although the Rio Games are dominating everything else on television, the performance is significantly below the 2012 Summer Games held in London, according to Nielsen. SpaceX Launches Japanese Satellite Elon Musk s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. lifts a Japanese telecommunication satellite into orbit, its eighth launch this year. U.S.-Backed Force Steps Up Effort to Secure Syrias Manbij U.S.-backed Arab and Kurdish forces buttressed defenses in the outlying neighborhoods of the Syrian city of Manbij after driving out Islamic State fighters and cutting one of its key supply routes.

5 Today In Canada Earnings scheduled Avigilon Corp. (AVO.T) second-quarter results; analysts expect earnings of 14 U.S. cents a share Economic Indicators (all times ET) Existing home sales for July expected at 9 a.m. Stocks to watch Concordia International (CXR.T) shares fell Friday after suspending its dividend and cutting guidance Calendar items (all times ET) none