Friday, January 17, 2014

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1 On Tap 8:30 a.m. Dec New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits Total Starts (expected 0.98M), Starts Percent Change (expected -10.6%), Building Permits (expected 1.02M), Percent Change (expected +1%) 9:15 a.m. Dec Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (expected +0.3%), Capacity Utilization (expected 79.1), Capacity Utilization Net Change (previous +0.8) 9:55 a.m. Jan Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Survey of Consumers preliminary data Sentiment Index Mid Month (expected 83.5), Expectations Index Mid Month (previous 72.7), Value (Current Period) Mid Month (previous 97.9) 10:00 a.m. Nov Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey 12:30 p.m. FRB Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at Richmond chapter of RMA event N/A Notice: Due to the holiday, this newsletter will not publish on Monday, Jan. 20 Recent Analyst Ratings Actions Twitter Started at Buy by Stifel Nicolaus SNAPSHOT Stock futures gain; dollar flat; Treasury yields tighten slightly; ICE Feb Brent up 29c at $106.04, Nymex Feb crude up 51c at $94.47; gold at $1,239.80/oz, down 0.2% Watch for: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Job Openings, Labor Turnover; Fed s Jeffrey Lacker speech; earnings from General Electric, Morgan Stanley OPENING CALL Stocks are expected to open slightly weaker Friday with investors tempted to book profits after the S&P 500 index closed at a fresh record high earlier in the week, and ahead of an extended weekend owing to Martin Luther King Day. Although futures point to a positive start, Monex Capital Markets has called the DJIA 14 points lower at and the S&P 500 one point weaker at The University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading will be worth watching, as will housing starts. Both give some meaningful insight as to the health of the economy so some impressive prints here may be sufficient to see some buyers coming back in, noted analysts at Monex. EQUITIES Tyco International (TYC) has shortlisted a number of private-equity firms as potential buyers for its South Korean security unit Caps Co., in what could be a $1.4 billion acquisition, people familiar with the matter said. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Bain Capital, IMM PE and Carlyle Group LP are in the running for the deal, the people said this week. Bain Capital has teamed up with South Korean private-equity firm Hahn & Co. to make its bid, the people said, adding Standard Chartered s private-equity arm and Affinity Equity Partners are also among those still considering bids for the asset. The private-equity interest in the Korean company comes at a time when firms in Asia are sitting on some $120 billion of unspent money and are eager to deploy that capital. Goodyear (GT) has won a court battle after a U.S. federal judge threw out a lawsuit by French workers fighting to keep their jobs by preventing a plant closure in Amiens. Goodyear announced a year ago that it was closing the factory in northern France, which employs 1,173 people, after years of negotiations with unions failed to come up with a solution to save jobs. Unions launched a series of legal proceedings against the company, but to no avail. IBM (IBM) Thursday said it will invest $1.2 billion to add 15 new data centers around the world in 2014, bringing the total number of data centers run by IBM to 40.

2 The data centers will allow IBM to host servers and applications on behalf of their customers. The commitment follows its acquisition of cloud technology vendor Softlayer Technologies Inc., announced in June 2013, and is intended to bolster its position in a market dominated by rivals. J.P. Morgan (JPM) is advising Ezra Holdings Ltd. (5DN.SG) on strategic options for a unit including a possible listing in the U.S., Ezra said on Friday. FOREX The dollar barely moved against other major currencies, including the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, as investors in Asia reduced bets ahead of the Chinese New Year. Many Asian investors cut their bets on the Australian dollar against the U.S. and other currencies following weak Australian jobs data Thursday as they prepared for the Chinese holiday season later this month. Meanwhile, other investors took profits from the positions against the Australian dollar they had built earlier this year, Tokyo dealers said. This buying and selling cancelled each other out in an otherwise quiet trading session. The dollar moved little against the yen as well. Still, there were signs investors were betting the U.S. currency will rise against the yen in the long term. Some Japanese energy companies were securing dollars in multi-year futures contracts. At 0450 ET, USD/JPY was at , EUR/USD was at and GBP/USD was at BONDS Treasurys posted reasonable 7-year- and 10-year led gains Thursday and remain bid in Europe with the March futures contract 4/32 higher at and the 10- year cash quoted at 2.835%. It s a busy data day ahead as a number of important releases have been pushed forward ahead of Monday s Martin Luther King Day holiday, according to Deutsche Bank. December housing starts/building permits data, industrial production and preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be closely watched for further clues as to the strength of the economy. COMMODITIES ICE Brent crude was trading around $106 per barrel in London, on the first day of the March contract, with Commerzbank seeing a well-supplied market this year. The focus on the oil market this year will once more be on supplies, they said. Continuing success with shale oil production in the U.S. will again keep prices in check. Within the last three years, U.S. crude output has risen by 50%.

3 At 0443 ET, Brent crude for March delivery was up 29 cents at $ on ICE Futures Europe, while Nymex February crude was up 51 cents at $ Gold prices look likely to remain under pressure this year, as rising U.S. interest rates dent the appeal of the metal which yields no interest to investors, said Morgan Stanley. As a result, we remain firmly of the view that far greater upside lies with the platinum group metals, and palladium in particular, it said. The bank forecasts gold averaging $1,313/oz this year. Continued central bank gold purchases and strong physical demand from India and China will likely be insufficient to offset continued investor selling of gold this year, Morgan Stanley said. At 0401 ET, spot gold was at $1,239.80/oz, down 0.2% on the day. Other Top Stories Of The Day Portugal Dodges S&P Downgrade Standard & Poor s said it had ended a review into Portugal s rating and decided not to downgrade the country, in a reflection of what it describes as signs of stabilization in the bailed-out state Banks Must Lend Reasonably, PBOC Says China s commercial banks must lend reasonably because new yuan loans have grown a lot since the beginning of the year, the central bank said on Friday. PBOC To Keep Liquidity at Reasonable Levels China s central bank has vowed to maintain liquidity at appropriate levels while urging financial institutions to enhance their ability to manage liquidity. Japan Economy Recovering for 1st Time Since 2008 For the first time in six years, the Japanese government clearly declared in its monthly report that the economy is recovering, the latest indication of the success of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe s pro-growth policies.

4 Fitch Downgrades Serbia Rating to B-Plus The ratings firm cut Serbia s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to B-plus from double-b-minus, as the country s public finances continue to crumble amid slow growth. Euro-Zone Construction Falls for Third Month in November Construction in the 17 countries that then shared the euro fell in November for the third straight month, an indication that the currency area s recovery has yet to spread to all parts of the economy. Spanish Bad Loans Hit Fresh All-Time High in November Bad loans held by Spanish banks rose again in November, the latest in a series of months in which they hit an all-time high, an indication that the balance sheets of the country s lenders will take time to reflect the gradual improvement of the economy since mid European Stocks Back to Six-Year High European stocks edged up, pushing shares in the region back to a fresh six-year high after Thursday s small decline Frances 2013 Budget Gap Higher than Forecast France s budget deficit amounted to 74.9 billion euros, higher than the official forecast, yet down 12 billion euros lower than a year earlier. UK Retail Sales Post Surprise Surge in December U.K. retail sales rose in December at the fastest annual pace in more than nine years, far exceeding analysts expectations and a sign of consumers willingness to spend as Britain s economy recovers.

5 Iran Says U.N. Experts To Inspect Gachin Mine This Month Iran s Atomic Energy Organization said on Friday that U.N. nuclear experts will inspect its Gachin uranium mine this month, almost nine years after they last visited the site. Today In Canada Earnings scheduled Economic indicators (all times EST) Stocks to watch Bombardier (BBD.B.T) shares fell Thursday after the company announced another delay in its CSeries jet program Canexus (CUS.T) plans to raise C$100 million through the sale of shares at C$5.60 each Calendar items (all times EST)