Monday, April 11, 2016

Transcription

1 On Tap 8:30 a.m. U.S. Treasury Sec Lew in conversation on U.S. leadership in the global economy N/A G24 Committee of the Whole Recent Analyst Ratings Actions There are no analyst ratings changes. SNAPSHOT U.S. stock futures higher; yen strengthens further; 10-year Treasury yield 1.723%; Nymex $39.55; gold $ Watch for: Fed chief Janet Yellen to meet with Obama; Treasury Secretary Lew in conversation on U.S. leadership in the global economy OPENING CALL U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday as investors looked ahead to the start of the earnings season with numbers from Alcoa as well as a speech by Janet Yellen. Earnings for the S&P 500 are forecast to contract around 8.5% from a year earlier, with particularly downbeat reports expected from the energy sector. The corporate earnings outlook is low to flat, said Oliver Pursche, chief executive at Bruderman & Co. The best word for sentiment right now is probably confused, he added. The Fed chief will meet President Obama at 3pm ET at the White House. The two will discuss the state of the American and global economy, Wall Street reform, and the long-term economic outlook,economic and regulatory issues, the White House said in a statement. Shares of Yahoo could be active on Monday after the U.K. s Daily Mail emerged as a possible bidder for the Internet group s assets. EQUITIES The U.K. s Daily Mail has emerged as a suitor for Yahoo s assets, joining a wide group of interested companies said to include telecom giant Verizon Communications Inc. as an April 18 deadline for preliminary offers nears. Daily Mail, the British newspaper and global tabloid website, said on Monday that it is in preliminary talks with other investors to launch a bid for Yahoo, confirming a report on Sunday by The Wall Street Journal. Given the success of DailyMail.com and Elite Daily, we have been in discussions with a number of parties who are potential bidders, a spokesperson for DailyMail.com said. Discussions are at a very early stage and there is no certainty that any transaction will take place. Further updates will be provided as appropriate, the spokesperson said. Pacific Exploration & Production board members postponed a meeting to discuss debt-restructuring proposals after shareholders of the Canadian-Colombian oil firm expressed concern over the independence of the process, according to a person familiar with the matter. Pacific s board, faced with a cash crunch, was scheduled to meet Sunday to decide among at least three proposals to reduce the debt burden as the energy company contends with persistently low global crude prices and a shrinking market valuation.

2 Instead, the board delayed the meeting for a few days, according to the person familiar with the matter, after some of the company s shareholders last week asked Colombia s markets regulator to block one of the buyout proposals as biased. A Pacific representative couldn t immediately be reached for comment. FOREX In currencies, the yen touched a new 17-month high against the dollar during Asian trade, as another round of speculative yen buying by non-japanese, short-term players appeared to push up the Japanese currency. The U.S. currency bounced back on short covering followed by dollar buying shortly after comments by a Japanese government spokesman. Japan s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reiterated that the yen s recent gains were one-sided and were caused by speculative trading. He said the country stands ready to take action against excessive yen movements if necessary. Still, some remain skeptical about Japan s willingness to intervene in the currency market, especially after global leaders agreed to avoid competitive currency devaluations. I don t think Japan can intervene ahead of the summit meeting it will host next month, said Marito Ueda, director at FX Prime bygmo. It seems some investors won t feel a sense of accomplishment until the dollar touches as low as Y106 or Y105, Mr. Ueda said. What we are seeing is a vicious cycle in which a combination of a weaker stocks and a higher yen are pulling each other down, he said. The euro was slightly lower against the Japanese currency. At 5.50am ET, USD/JPY was , EUR/USD was and EUR/JPY was BONDS The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 Year Treasury was 1.723% in European trade, from 1.722% on Friday. Treasury yields have declined in three of the past four weeks, falling to the lows not seen since Feb. 11, when U.S. stocks bottomed before rallying more than 10%. Analysts noted that the futures market reflect expectations that the Federal Reserve may not be able to raise rates this year. Currently, the Fed funds futures is pricing in only a 50% chance of a rate increase by the end of this year, according to CME Group s FedWatch tool.

3 COMMODITIES Crude-oil prices edged lower in Europe, taking a break after last week s climb. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in May traded at $39.55 a barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.5%, in the Globex electronic session. June Brent crude on London s ICE Futures exchange fell by 14 cents, or 0.3%, to $41.80 a barrel. Crude had been higher earlier in Asia after data last week showed that U.S. crude inventories and drilling activities cooled. Crude oil prices are back to or near the March high and a significant resistance point. If oil prices can break above this level, investor sentiment towards commodities should receive a further boost, said ANZ Research. Gold was 0.6% higher at $1, an ounce. Other Top Stories Of The Day Banks Miserable Year: Stocks Suffer as Rates Stay Low Bank stocks are having a terrible 2016, as central-bank policies, which for years lifted asset prices, are hurting the financial sector. China Consumer Inflation Unchanged in March A strong rise in pork prices helped keep the pace of Chinese consumer inflation steady in March. Germany s Schuble: Time Is Near to End Easy Money Policies Germany s finance minister called on governments in Europe and the U.S. to encourage their central banks to gradually exit easy-money policies, in the strongest sign yet of Berlin s growing impatience with the ultralow interest rates of the ECB.

4 BOJ Gov Kuroda: Global Financial Markets Remain Unstable Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday that he will keep a close eye on unstable international financial markets, signaling his worries over the yen s renewed gain. Government Spending Cuts Escalate Clashes Over Monetary Policy Many central bankers want advanced economies to boost government spending to snap the global economy out of its funk-but winning cooperation from elected officials, under pressure to slash expenditures, is proving difficult. Russias Most Important Bank Needs a Bailout Russia s VEB, which picked up the tab to build up infrastructure in the city of Sochi ahead of the 2014 Winter Olympic Games, now faces paying off about $20 billion in foreign-currency debt taken with much-diminished access to capital markets. China Goes Prospecting for Worlds Gold Mines Chinese gold miners are aggressively scouting for overseas acquisitions, encouraged by historically low gold prices that could help them scoop up assets cheaply. Today In Canada Earnings scheduled Economic Indicators (all times ET)

5 Stock to watch TransCanada on Friday identified a small leak on its Keystone oil pipeline,which it had shut down earlier in the week to investigate a spill Calendar items (all times ET)